Author Archive

Daily Notes: Free Afternoon Baseball

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Brief Previews for Select Games
2. Lightly Annotated Video: Matt Garza’s Slider
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Detroit Radio

Brief Previews for Select Games
Here are brief previews for three of today’s games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project. (Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.)

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Roy Halladay, In Relief of Roy Halladay

Given his excellence over the last decade, it’s become difficult to discuss Roy Halladay without merely descending into a list of superlative adjectives.

Indeed, Roy Halladay posted the league’s best WAR (8.2) among pitchers last season. By WAR, he’s been the best pitcher over the last two years, as well. And last three years. And four years. And five. And six. And seven. Really, to find a recent analog to Halladay’s achievement as a pitcher, you have to go back to 1998; over the final 12 years and ca. 2,400 innings of his career, Randy Johnson posted a 73.3 WAR. (Halladay debuted in 1998 himself, and has recorded 70.5 wins in 2554.0 innings since then.)

Given Halladay’s dominance, it’s unusual to find him in a jam of any sort while pitching; however, during last night’s contest against the Giants, something like a jam unfolded for the right-hander.

With Philadelphia leading San Francisco by a score of 5-1 heading into the bottom of the fourth, Halladay allowed consecutive hits to Brandon Belt (single) and Brandon Crawford (double) to start the inning (box). That situation (runners on second and third base with no outs) created a generic run expectancy of 1.79 for the Giants. That accounted not only for Halladay’s highest-allowed run expectancy of the young season, but would have actually been his fifth-highest mark during all of 2011. Over the span of two batters, San Francisco’s win expectancy had risen from 8.4% (at the conclusion of Philly’s half of the fourth) to 20.5%. Even two outs, provided they were of the batted variety, could shrink Philly’s lead by two runs.

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Daily Notes, Featuring Power Rankings of Power

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Important Item: Power Rankings at SI.com
2. Brief Previews for Select Games
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Houston Radio

Important Item: Power Rankings at SI.com
On Monday, totally influential internet presence SI.com published the first iteration of its weekly MLB power rankings. In a turn of events that has shocked mildly surprised the nation, said power rankings are now being provided by FanGraphs and are based on WAR.

Here are your top five teams by that criteria (with WAR winning percentage in parentheses):

1. St. Louis (.847)
2. Texas (.757)
3. Washington (.647)
4. Detroit (.636)
5. Los Angeles NL (.627)

And bottom five teams:

26. Miami (.347)
27. Cincinnati (.347)
28. Seattle (.338)
29. Pittsburgh (.336)
30. San Diego (.327)

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FanGraphs Audio: The Dave Cameron Show

Episode 166
Managing editor Dave Cameron — as he does most Mondays — joins FanGraphs Audio this Monday. Topics discussed: the Dale Scott call in Los Angeles, what it teaches us about the current state of umpiring; which stats are and are not reliable at this stage of the season, and what that means for Matt Kemp and Tim Lincecum; and Bobby Valentine’s comments regarding Kevin Youkilis, what they mean, practically speaking.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 32 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes: Lincecum Grano Salis

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Brief Previews for Select Games
2. Lightly Annotated Video: Strasburg’s April 11th Start
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Kansas City Radio

Brief Previews for Select Games
Here are brief previews for five of today’s games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project. (Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.)

Tampa Bay at Boston | 11:05 ET
Today is Patriots’ Day in Massachusetts (and Maine and, for some reason, Wisconsin) — a commemoration of the Battles of Lexington and Concord, according both to Wikipedia and almost definitely Mrs. White, my second and third grade teacher at Dame School. It’s also the day of the 116th Boston Marathon, the world’s longest-running marathon… Daniel Bard makes his second career start. Here’s the line from his first, at Toronto (box): 5.0 IP, 24 TBF, 6 K, 1 BB, 11 GB on 17 batted-balls (64.7%) — good for a single-game xFIP of 1.90. Fenway’s excellent center-field camera angle will provide an opportunity to observe Bard’s repertoire as a starter… James Shields starts for Tampa Bay.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston.

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FanGraphs Audio: Handsome Italian Bill Petti

Episode 165
FanGraphs readers will know today’s guest both/either from (a) the pages of FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score and/or (b) his regular appearances on MLB Network’s Clubhouse Confidential with host Brian Kenny. In either case, he’s handsome Italian gentleman Bill Petti. Topics discussed: the Mets, Petti’s academic training in political science, the Mets, Petti’s baseball-oriented research, and the Mets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 59 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes: Guide to Weekend Programming

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for this weekend edition of Daily Notes.

1. A Quick Word
2. Friday, April 13th
3. Saturday, April 14th
4. Sunday, April 15th

A Quick Word
Below are brief previews for select weekend games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project.

Furthermore, for the benefit of those whose viewing options are limited, each day contains a preview for that day’s featured MLB.TV Free Game.

Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.

Friday, April 13th
Chicago NL at St. Louis | 15:15 ET
Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija, owner of a 3.9 BB/9 rate in 485.1 minor-league innings and 5.3 BB/9 in 169.2 major-league innings (prior to last week), was excellent in his season debut, posting this line in 8.2 innings (box): 31 TBF, 8 K, 0 BB, 10 GB on 22 batted-balls (45.5% GB) — for a single-game 2.54 xFIP (70 xFIP-). Our Bradley Woodrum is optimistic about Samardzija for 2012, especially if he (i.e. Samardzija) continues to emphasize his mid-90s two-seamer and slider… Samardzija faces Adam Wainwright, who, despite allowing three runs, was excellent in his return from Tommy John surgery. Line (box): 5.2 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 9 GB on 14 batted-balls (64.3% GB), 1.94 xFIP (53 xFIP-)… The Cardinals’ center-field camera angle — among the top five in the majors — provides an opportunity to see the repertoires of each pitcher… Through seven games — and as of Thursday afternoon — the Cardinals hitters lead the league with a 3.2 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL.

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FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday on Thursday

Episode 164
This edition of Fantasy Friday features Fan- and RotoGraphs contributor Chris Cwik and is being published — for reasons unknown and unknowable — on a Thursday. Among the topics discussed: the answer to the question, “Who or what is Hector Santiago?”; three notable Padres pitchers of note; and the contract extensions of Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, and Carlos Santana — what, if anything, they mean to fantasy owners.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 34 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes: Prospect Smyly to Debut for Tigers

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Brief Previews for Select Games
2. Three Scouting Reports on Drew Smyly
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Los Angeles (AL) Radio

Brief Previews for Select Games
Here are brief previews for three of today’s games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project. (Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.)

Cincinnati at Washington | 13:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez each make their second starts, respectively, for their new clubs… Here are their respective Steamer projections. Latos: 163.0 IP, 8.29 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 4.02 FIP. Gonzalez: 172.0 IP, 8.94 K/9, 4.07 BB/9, 0.78 HR/9, 3.63 FIP… Through Wednesday, here’s how Dusty Baker has split up playing time between his catchers. Ryan Hanigan: 4 GS, 15 PA. Devin Mesoraco: 2 GS, 6 PA.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cincinnati.

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FanGraphs Audio: The 100% Useless Dayn Perry

Episode 163
In this edition of FanGraphs Audio, we ask the question “Is Dayn Perry 100% useless?” And also: “So what if he is?”

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 42 min. play time.)

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