George Washington famously had a pocket full of horses.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Projecting: ZiPS for Pittsburgh
2. Video: Gerrit Cole in the AFL
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Kansas City Television

Projecting: ZiPS for Pittsburgh
Dan Szymborski has published his (30th, I think) ZiPS projections of the offseason — this, for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Below are some of the notable ones, accompanied by very rough WAR projections (for hitters per 600 plate appearances and pitchers per 200 innings). All numbers assume major-league competition. OPS+ and ERA+ are park-adjusted.

Starling Marte, CF, 23: .279/.320/.421, 100 OPS+, 2.6 WAR600
Nate McLouth, CF, 30: .243/.340/.391, 98 OPS+, 2.6 WAR600
Alex Presley, LF, 26: .275/.324/.426, 102 OPS+, 1.7 WAR600
Garrett Jones, RF, 31: .252/.317/.432, 101 OPS+, 1.6 WAR600
Again, I think maybe the league-average wOBA I’m using (.320) is lower than the one in the ZiPS universe, so just look at the numbers relative to each other. As of now, Alex Presley is slated to begin the season as the Pirates starting center fielder, but Presley’s hold on the position is probably pretty tenuous — or, certainly more so than Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata’s holds on their respective positions. Note that the very rough WAR projections above include only positional adjustments, but not defensive runs, which means that prospect Starling Marte (regarded as a plus defender, even in center) is likely better than Nate McLouth (-12.9 UZR/150 in 4486.0 career innings). Presley’s offensive projection is actually more optimistic than I would’ve expected.

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Episode 142
This episode of the podcast marks the first edition of Fantasy Friday for the 2012 season. In it, RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris reviews some difficult decisions from the keeper deadline (including Nelson Cruz, specifically); the gap in ADPs between Dustin Ackley and Jason Kipnis at second base; and some articles from FanGraphs Plus that were actually of benefit to him, even as one who writes and thinks constantly about fantasy baseball.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min. play time.)

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Scott Kazmir will throw for scouts on Friday.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Video: Cuban MVP Jose Abreu, Hitting a Homer
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Washington Television

Assorted Headlines
College Baseball Season Starts
If I’m not mistaken, today represents the first day of the college baseball season. In any case, it represents the first edition of Baseball American Aaron Fitt’s Weekend Preview series for 2012. It’s a pretty mammoth work, that, but the weekend’s featured series appear to include 10th-ranked Vanderbilt at No. 2 Stanford and Cal State Fullerton (25) at Florida (1). The former series features Stanford right-hander Mark Appel — making the Friday night start for the Cardinal — and can apparently be viewed on the internets via CBS Sports ULIVE.

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Episode 141
Like important musician Lee Greenwood, Dayn Perry knows that he’s free. Unlike Lee Greenwood, Dayn Perry uses that freedom to morally objectionable ends — like, for example, ruining wholesome baseballing podcasts. Which, this episode of FanGraphs Audio is evidence of that.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 32 min. play time.)

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Two Headlines: Branyan, Kazmir
2. Projecting: ZiPS for San Diego
3. Video: Vince Belnome, James Darnell, Speed Metal

Two Headlines
Yankees Sign Branyan
The New York Yankees have signed 36-year-old Russell Branyan to a minor-league contract, according to the internet a week ago. Branyan posted his first ISO under .200 last year since a 42-plate appearance run in 1999, with Cleveland. Still, this is a strong signing: the Yankees lost their primary DH when they traded away Jesus Montero to Seattle. While they might still very well sign Johnny Damon or Raul Ibanez or Hideki Matsui, Branyan is low-cost alternative as the left-handed bat in the DH spot.

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Episode 140
Today’s guest Steve Slowinski contributes to both FanGraphs and DRaysBay — and, perhaps more importantly, is the driving force behind the very helpful FanGraphs (née Sabermetric) Library. We discuss, among other issues, how someone born in New Jersey and currently residing in Connecticut could every become a Rays fan. Also mentioned: Matt Moore and Brandon Guyer, just for fun.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min. play time.)

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There’s no law against enjoying this video.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Four Projections for Yoenis Cespedes
2. A Fifth Projection for Yoenis Cespedes
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Toronto Television

Four Projections for Yoenis Cespedes
As you are very likely aware, Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract with Oakland on Monday. Naturally, the next question to ask is, “How well will he play in the majors?”

Below are projections from four different sources — with some serious caveats. Caveat No. 1: from what I can tell, only the the ZiPS slash-line below is adjusted for park. This is a big deal, as the Coliseum depresses wOBA by about 5% for both left- and right-handed batters. Caveat No. 2: the WAR projections are per 600 plate appearances and very rough. Each one is derived merely from the slash line, working under the assumption that Cespedes is an average major-league center fielder. (If Cespedes is merely an average corner outfielder, remove about a win from each of the WAR600 projections.) Also, in terms of run environment, I’ve used league-average wOBA of .320. Caveat No. 3: generally speaking, I have no idea what I’m doing. If you sense any errors here, do not hesitate to inform me of same in the comments section below. The idea here is merely to put some offensive projections on equal footing with each other.

Now here are those projections, from most to least optimistic:

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The Chicago White Sox have announced this afternoon the signing of outfielder Kosuke Fukudome to a one-year, $1 million deal that includes a club option for the 2013 season.

Fukudome, who turns 35 in April, had his roughest season as a major leaguer last year, posting a -0.2 WAR over 603 plate appearances with the Chicago Cubs and then, following a late-July trade, the Cleveland Indians — although, it should be noted that about one negative win of that comes from defense alone, which is much more subject to variation even over a year-long sample.

The White Sox are likely to deploy an Opening Day outfield of Alejandro De Aza in left field, Alex Rios in center, and Dayan Viciedo in right, meaning Fukudome will serve as fourth outfielder for the team.

Which, here’s a question: what are the criteria for a fourth-outfielder role? And also: how well does Fukudome fulfill those criteria?

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Today’s edition of Offseason Notes is a graph.

Because I’m painfully disatisfied with the present, I spend a lot of my time thinking about the future. And because I spend a lot of my time thinking about the future, I spend a lot of time thinking about baseball prospects. And because I spend a lot of time thinking about baseball prospects, I spend a lot of time reading scouting reports of baseball prospects — which form of literature (i.e. the scouting report) I consider more important than most of what else is available in the entire Western Canon.

In reading scouting reports, I freqently see it suggested — as regards pitchers — that height is important because it allows a pitcher to throw on a “downhill plane.” Frequently, in those cases where a pitcher throws on a downfill plane, it is also suggested that doing so will allow said pitcher to induce ground balls (and, in turn, prevent home runs) with more frequency.

I do not intend to dispute the logic of this reasoning — nor to suggest at all that this is a statement made by every author of the literary form known as the scouting report — however, knowing that right-hander Chris Young both (a) is 6’10” and (b) has a career ground-ball rate in the high-20%s, I grew curious.

Accordingly, I looked at both the the height and ground-ball rate of every pitcher with more than 150 batters faced (i.e. the sample threshold at which ground-ball rate becomes reliable), 2002-11.

Here is the result:

As one will note by the r-squared, there is basically no connection whatsoever between height and ground-ball rate (and some internet browsing reveals that David Gassko reached a similar conclusion at the Hardball Times in 2006). Of course, not every pitcher has the same angle of release: Tim Lincecum, for example, throws almost straight over the top, while Justin Masterson is the rare starter to throw from a sidearm angle. Generally speaking, however, while there might be some advantage to pitcher height and the ability to throw on a downhill plane, it isn’t showing up in ground-ball rates.

Thanks to Mr. Jeff Zimmerman for running the sweet query that provided the above date.

Episode 139
With normal Monday guest managing editor Dave Cameron on assignment, Bradley Woodrum plays the part of baseballing analyst for this edition of FanGraphs Audio. The topics covered? Just one, really: Yoenis Cespedes’ four-year, $36 million contract with the Oakland A’s. Also: how Oakland outfielder Collin Cowgill might be a four-win player.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 35 min. play time.)

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