Offseason Notes, With Some Cespedes Projections

There’s no law against enjoying this video.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Four Projections for Yoenis Cespedes
2. A Fifth Projection for Yoenis Cespedes
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Toronto Television

Four Projections for Yoenis Cespedes
As you are very likely aware, Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract with Oakland on Monday. Naturally, the next question to ask is, “How well will he play in the majors?”

Below are projections from four different sources — with some serious caveats. Caveat No. 1: from what I can tell, only the the ZiPS slash-line below is adjusted for park. This is a big deal, as the Coliseum depresses wOBA by about 5% for both left- and right-handed batters. Caveat No. 2: the WAR projections are per 600 plate appearances and very rough. Each one is derived merely from the slash line, working under the assumption that Cespedes is an average major-league center fielder. (If Cespedes is merely an average corner outfielder, remove about a win from each of the WAR600 projections.) Also, in terms of run environment, I’ve used league-average wOBA of .320. Caveat No. 3: generally speaking, I have no idea what I’m doing. If you sense any errors here, do not hesitate to inform me of same in the comments section below. The idea here is merely to put some offensive projections on equal footing with each other.

Now here are those projections, from most to least optimistic:

CAIRO: .272/.318/.483, 3.5 WAR600

Davenport: .260/.325/.458, 3.3 WAR600

ZiPS: .265/.329/.418*, 3.2 WAR600

OLIVER: .266/.308/.447, 2.6 WAR600

*Slash-line is park adjusted.

A Fifth Projection for Yoenis Cespedes
I cannot speak to the accuracy of this projection, courtesy Andrew Bryz-Gornia.

Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Toronto Television
This offseason, FanGraphs is asking readers to rate the broadcast teams for all 30 major-league clubs. (Click here for more on this project.)

Rate other teams: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago (AL) / Chicago (NL) / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Miami / Houston / Los Angeles (AL) / Los Angeles (NL, Home Games) / Los Angeles (NL, Away Games) / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York (AL) / New York (NL) / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas.

We hoped you liked reading Offseason Notes, With Some Cespedes Projections by Carson Cistulli!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
joe torre
joe torre

i project matt kemp 2009 numbers but matt kemp batted 6,7,8,9th a lot that year because i hated him dearly. matt kemp was batting 3rd in 2007, but when i took over he batted 2nd or 7th or 8th because i hated matt kemp! i also ruined the careers or kuo and broxton by pitching them too much.

im going out and saying ces will get 21 HR 36 SB and a .273 clip.

i think ces will project over 93 hr and 123 SB in the four year span he signed for.

if ces only gets 70 hr and 100 SB over that 4 year span, then he is a donkey like me and the As are donkeys too.


Man, give it a rest. Even the real Joe Torre has left those days in the past.