Episode 751
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during the course of which he discusses the logic of some under- and overslot bonuses to which recent draftees have already agreed, comments on some prospects in the delightful and free Cape Cod League, and reluctantly participates in an analogy regarding the author’s subpar contribution to a birthing-class potluck.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 13 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at Boston | 19:10 ET
Berrios (54.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Sale (107.1 IP, 60 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified this game as the day’s most promising largely due to the appeal of the probable starters. Left-hander Chris Sale has been excellent, leading all qualifiers in strikeout- and walk-rate differential (K-BB%), park-adjusted xFIP (xFIP-), and WAR — by some margin, in the case of that last metric. As for Berrios, he’s finally begun experiencing the sort of success that both his stuff and minor-league numbers would suggest. Between his command and contact suppression, he’s managed to prevent runs at a slightly better rate than Sale himself, recording a park-adjusted ERA that would place him third among qualifiers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Anderson (61.0 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. McCarthy (69.0 IP, 93 xFIP-)
For the third consecutive day, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm identifies a Rockies-Dodgers contest as the day’s most promising. That’s, in part, due to each club’s proximity to the top of the division. By the coin-flip method — which seems to best approximate how the human mind conceives of postseason contnetion — Colorado and LA feature a roughly 20% and 50% chance, respectively, of winning the NL West — so, not decisive in either case. Reality suggests that the probabilities aren’t quite so close. As everything everywhere suggests, however, the human mind has little use for reality.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Chatwood (90.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (103.1 IP, 68 xFIP-)
One doesn’t require the aid of a haphazardly constructed algorithm to reach the conclusion that a game started by Clayton Kershaw might offer thrills and/or delights. Of course, there are a number of things one doesn’t require in this life and yet pursues anyway. Like a degree in the humanities, for example. Or a distant father’s love.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Freeland (81.2 IP, 108 xFIP-) vs. Wood (61.2 IP, 59 xFIP-)
Navigating to FanGraphs’ WAR leaderboard for pitchers, one doesn’t find Dodgers starter Alex Wood listed among the league’s top-10 pitchers. One doesn’t find Wood’s name at all, in fact. This isn’t because Wood has pitched poorly. To the contrary, he’s been excellent. Rather, it’s because the pitching leaderboard only includes qualifiers. Indeed, after setting the innings threshold to 0, one finds Wood listed ninth by WAR — a mark he’s achieved in roughly two-thirds the innings as the pitchers on either side of him. The presence of Wood is one of this game’s multiple appealing qualities.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released last week by Baseball America — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Zack Granite, OF, Minnesota (Profile)
A former 14th-round draft pick, Granite now leads the International League in batting — by a considerable margin, as noted by David Laurila yesterday in the introduction to his interview with Granite.

Batting average obviously has shortcomings as a measurement of player value. For one, it stabilizes only in large samples. For two, it’s merely part of the overall offensive picture. That said, Granite has also consistently recorded strikeout rates below 10% — meaning he’s likely to produce higher batting averages anyway. Moreover, because of his baserunning and defensive abilities, Granite is the sort of player who could actually prove useful to a club despite a somewhat empty batting average.

In any case, Granite rendered his batting average a little less empty this week, hitting his second home run of the season, as documented in the following video presentation.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Colorado | 15:10 ET
Godley (50.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Senzatela (83.1 IP, 100 xFIP-)
Per the author’s haphazard calculations, this D-backs and Rockies game is the day’s most promising. Neither club has been particularly well acquitted by these so-called NERD scores over the past few years. This season, however, has been different. Arizona has benefited from improbable success on the base paths. Colorado, for their part, have been one of the league’s top defensive clubs — led, in particular, by Nolan Arenado in that effort. Perhaps most notably, both teams feature nearly a 50% chance of making the divisional series this year.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.

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Episode 750
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the immodest guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 10 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Read the rest of this entry »

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released last week by Baseball America — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Jose Miguel Fernandez, 2B, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
In the context of other deals the Dodgers have given to Cuban players over the last decade — players like Erisbel Arruebarrena ($25 million) and Alex Guerrero ($28 million) and, of course, Yasiel Puig ($42 million) — their $200,000 commitment to Fernandez this offseason is notable for its modesty. Indeed, there were some clear risks with Fernandez: because of a failed attempt to defect, the infielder hadn’t played since 2014. He was also an older prospect (now 29) whose defense at second base, according to Ben Badler, remained questionable.

Whatever the risks, the rewards have been abundant so far this season. In just over 200 plate appearances with Tulsa, Fernandez has recorded the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified Double-A hitters. His .167 isolated-power mark, meanwhile, is nearly 40 points greater than the Texas League average. Overall, Fernandez has recorded a 138 wRC+, and Steamer projects a 96 wRC+ at the major-league level.

As for the defense, the methodologies employed both by Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport do rate it as slightly below average. In the context of his various impediments, however, Fernandez has been excellent thus far.

Here’s Fernandez hitting a home run this past week by means of a swing that does not appear to be the sort typically employed by batters distinguished for their contact skills:

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