Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York NL | 19:05 ET
Price (12.0 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (64.2 IP, 79 xFIP-)
The Yankees have recorded the top BaseRuns record in the majors not, as has frequently been the case in the past, on the strength of aging relics but rather on promising young players.

Regard, the club’s top-five players by WAR this year, featuring four players aged 27 or younger:

This evening, the team’s strong corps of position players — which currently ranks fourth in the majors by WAR — is complemented by Michael Pineda. Still a couple years shy of 30 himself, Pineda continues to control the strike zone like few other pitchers in the league.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Los Angeles NL | 15:10 ET
Strasburg (74.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (83.0 IP, 65 xFIP-)
Once again, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm confirms what most sentient beings could have determined for themselves — namely, in this case, that a game featuring two of the sport’s top pitchers might possesses some interest for viewers. The projections suggest that, at this point, Stephen Strasburg is likely to record the highest WAR of his career, whether one calculates that figure with FIP or runs allowed. He’s excelled by either version. As for Clayton Kershaw, he isn’t expected to post a career year and yet he remains one of the majors’ best pitchers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 747
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod. Since his most recent appearance on the program, he’s been many places, if not technically everywhere, including Cincinnati and Louisville and Cincinnati again and Reading and Lehigh Valley and Fayetteville and so on. Discussed on the pod: Phillies prospects Dylan Cozens, Rhys Hoskins, and Cam Perkins; other Phillies prospects Scott Kingery and Andrew Pullin; likely first-rounders Adam Haseley (of Virginia) and Brendan McKay (of Louisville); plus no fewer than one (1) player from the NCAA Regional in Fayetteville.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 8 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Lamet (10.0 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Ray (69.0 IP, 84 xFIP-)
Beethoven’s third — known as the Heroic Symphony — marked the beginning of his “creative middle-period,” according to a source familiar with the situation. As for what Dinelson Lamet’s third will mark, this is uncertain. His first two have been excellent, however. Over 10.0 innings, the 24-year-old right-hander has recorded nearly a 40% strikeout rate, sitting at roughly 96 mph with his fastball.

Here’s an example of not his fastball, but his slider, with which pitch he’s recorded a swing and miss 20% of the time:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 746
The prolific Travis Sawchik is a former beat reporter for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and author of the book Big Data Baseball. He’s also the guest on this edition of the program, during which he discusses a hotly contested trade in his Hardball Dynasty league and another hotly contested trade in his Hardball Dynasty league. Also: the scouting report which the Pittsburgh Pirates may or may not have composed on Sawchik during his tenure as a newspaperman.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 13 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Martinez (73.0 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Wojciechowski (8.0 IP, 151 xFIP-)
The Toronto-Oakland game receives the same score as this St. Louis-Cincinnati contest according to the author’s defective calculus; however, it also feature two left-handed starters. The positioning of the A’s center-field camera tends to distort the movement of a left-hander’s pitches, the ball effectively leaving the pitcher’s hand at the extreme left-hand side of a shot, traveling the entire breadth of the screen, and arriving at the plate on the right-hand side of the shot. The camera in Cincinnati isn’t superior, but the Cards-Reds game offers two right-handers instead — and also the Reds’ offense, which remains the second best in the majors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 13:07 ET
Severino (61.1 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. Stroman (68.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
Responsible for yesterday’s most compelling game, the Yankees and Blue Jays conspire to offer today’s most compelling, as well, according to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm. Of particular interest probably is Luis Severino, who’s been one of the majors’ top pitchers by the most relevant measures — including, for example, strikeout rate (12th out of 92 qualifiers), walk rate (21st), park-adjusted xFIP (fifth) among others.

Here’s video footage featuring three of Severino’s sliders from his most recent start:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 13:07 ET
Montgomery (50.1 IP, 107 xFIP-) vs. Biagini (42.0 IP, 76 xFIP-)
So far this season, Yankees hitters have produced a collective 115 wRC+, the second-best mark among all major-league clubs. Among Yankees teams from recent history, that 115 figure would represent the organization’s top mark since the 2009 club produced a 117 wRC+. That 2009 version of the Yankees recorded the American League’s most wins and most Pythagorean wins en route to a world championship. Where the 2009 offense was heavily dependent on well compensated free agents such as Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, however, this club has benefited considerably from the work of Aaron Hicks.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released last week by Baseball America — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Scott Kingery, 2B, Philadelphia (Profile)
By almost every measure, Kingery has been the best player in the Eastern League. Entering play Thursday, he’d produced both the best adjusted batting line and top speed score among the league’s 81 qualifiers. Those numbers have been supported by equally strong offensive indicators — offensive indicators which are, in turn, complemented by roughly average defense at second base.

In short, the selection of Kingery for this edition of the Five is embarrassing for the lack of imagination it has required. It would only be more embarrassing were the author not to have included Kingery here. As for what would be most embarrassing, this is a matter of some debate among thought leaders, although referring to oneself as a “thought leader” is a candidate for the distinction.

In conclusion, here’s one of Kingery’s three home runs from the past week — in this case, against the Blue Jays’ Double-A affiliate in Manchester, New Hampshire:

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Cleveland | 12:10 ET
Cotton (43.2 IP, 120 xFIP-) vs. Kluber (37.1 IP, 87 xFIP-)
The 2017 season hasn’t begun for Jharel Cotton in the way that leading experts like the author would have predicted. As a leading expert, I assumed that his plus-plus changeup alone would lead to a distinctly above-average strikeout rate. So far, however, he’s produced almost a precisely average strikeout rate. It’s always surprising when leading experts are wrong. Look no further than this situation involving Jharel Cotton and a leading expert.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »