Episode 745
What happens when a rebuild doesn’t work? That question, arrived at in stupid and circuitous fashion, leads to the bulk of this week’s conversation with managing editor Dave Cameron. Also: if it’s the practice of FanGraphs authors, generally speaking, to ask questions and attempt to answer them intelligently — if that’s the case, is it possible even to address the recent contretemps between Hunter Strickland and Bryce Harper? “Sort of,” is Dave Cameron’s answer summarized briefly.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Guerra (8.2 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (64.0 IP, 68 xFIP-)
Because the author himself wasn’t aware, it’s possible that at least one reader isn’t currently aware of how good Jacob deGrom has been so far this season — in particular at missing bats. Among the league’s 92 qualified pitchers, he’s recorded the second-lowest contact rate (68.1%), the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate (15.3%), and the third-highest overall strikeout rate (32.2%). There’s obviously quite a lot of interaction between those metrics; in each case, however, one is forced to reach the conclusion that Jacob deGrom is missing a lot of bats.

By what means is he doing it? Largely by recording much higher whiff rates on every pitch. Regard, deGrom’s repertoire from 2016 versus the current season (data care of Brooks Baseball):

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or New York NL TV.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Butler (14.0 IP, 121 xFIP-) vs. Lamet (5.0 IP, 66 xFIP-)
San Diego right-hander Dinelson Lamet made his major-league debut last Thursday and was excellent in pretty much all the ways one could expect a pitcher to be excellent. He produced an 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 20 batters (box). He conceded just a lone run. He sat in the mid-90s with his fastball. He recorded whiff rates of roughly 20% with both his slider and changeup. (League average for both is typically around 15%.) He merits attention and considerable attention, is the point.

Here’s an example of both the fastball and changeup — to strike out Michael Conforto in the first and fifth innings, respectively:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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Episode 744
Alex Stumpf covers the Pirates and Duquesne basketball for The Point of Pittsburgh. He’s also (a) FanGraphs’ writer-in-residence for the month of May and (b) the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 0 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Cleveland | 16:10 ET
Mengden (Season Debut) vs. Carrasco (58.1 IP, 80 xFIP-)
According to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm, there are no games of great distinction today. David Price’s season debut might possess interest for some; the curiously successful D-backs — a club that’s produced nearly two wins by means of baserunning alone — might appeal to others. As for this game between Oakland and Cleveland, it features the season debut of Daniel Mengden, a pitcher who’s produced very strong statistical indicators in the upper minors over the last couple years and actually showed some promise in 14 major-league starts last year.

Did Aristotle suggest that the act of contemplation is the greatest pleasure available to man? It sounds plausible. Whatever the case, the game facilitates the opportunity to contemplate Daniel Mengden and his prospects for the future.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Washington | 16:05 ET
Richard (62.2 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Strasburg (60.1 IP, 83 xFIP-)
When the author’s haphazardly calculated algorithm identified May 21st’s game between Arizona and San Diego as the day’s most promising largely on the basis of Clayton Richard’s presence, it appeared only to underscore how haphazardly calculated that same algorithm must be. What actually happened, though, is Richard conceded just a single run over nine innings while recording a 6:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio — all on just 96 pitches (box). To further understand what might be facilitating Richard’s success, consider reading this piece by Jeff Sullivan. Alternatively, consider surrendering to the dark unknown of the universe.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Godley (25.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Guerra (3.0 IP, 60 xFIP-)
Right-hander Junior Guerra makes his first major-league appearance since departing from his Opening Day start with a calf injury. He pitches for a Milwaukee club that resides much closer to the top of the NL’s centermost division than one would have reasonably assumed back on April 3rd — to face a much more competitive Arizona club than one would have expected at that time, as well.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released last week by Baseball America — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Wilmer Font, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
The right-handed Font made his debut among the Five last week following a 15-strikeout performance that represented his career-best mark as a professional. In his lone start since that appearance, Font struck out 10 of the 22 batters he faced against Padres affiliate El Paso (box), which itself appears to represent his third-largest single-game total. As of Thursday night, Font continued to possess the highest strikeout rate among 514 qualified pitchers in the minors.

How much enthusiasm is one capable of mustering for a 27-year-old pitcher who compiled over 150 innings in indy ball over the last two seasons? However much it is, that’s likely how much Font deserves. Whatever his flaws, a limited repertoire doesn’t appear to be one of them. What follows is video footage excerpted from a single plate appearance during his last start — over the course of which he appears to throw no fewer than four different pitches, including a 93 mph fastball for a strikeout.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Lamet (MLB Debut) vs. deGrom (55.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
This game appears likely to represent the major-league debut of San Diego right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Overshadowed a bit in a deep and talented Padres system, Lamet has produced promising statistical indicators as a professional — including last season when he recorded strikeout and walk rates of 29.2% and 9.9%, respectively, as a 23-year-old at Double-A. He’s recorded one of the best strikeout rates across all of Triple-A this season.

As for the actual physical tools, it doesn’t appear as though arm speed represents any sort of impediment to success for Lamet. He sat at 95 mph during a spring-training appearance at a stadium equipped with pitch-tracking technology and nearly touched 98 during that appearance. Lead prospect Eric Longenhagen analyst also has some praise for Lamet’s slider. The flaws, according to Longenhagen? Command and the near absence of a changeup. Were one inclined, he or she could monitor Lamet’s start with those weaknesses in mind. Were one not inclined, he or she could do anything else, too.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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