Actual poster above Dave Cameron’s bed.

This edition of One Night Only contains sexy, updated Team NERD scores (without the POFF variable).

Friday, April 15th
Chicago Nationals (3) at Colorado (9) | 8:40pm ET
• Matt Garza pitches tonight for the Cubs.
• He has a 5.68 ERA through two starts, but has also done this: 12.2 IP, 14.21 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, .541 BABIP, 40.0 GB%, 1.28 xFIP.
• What?
• Also, don’t look this second, but Troy Tulowitzki’s doing this through 57 PA: .364/.491/.909 (.273 BABIP), .552 wOBA, 235 wRC+.
• Without defense included, he’s posted a 1.3 WAR. Already.

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Episode Seventy
In which the guests know a thing or two about small sample sizes.

Headlines
Small Samples — Totally Scrutinized!
The Sabermetric Box Score — Considered Briefly!
The Boston Red Sox — Largely Ignored!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Joe Pawlikowski, Morning After-er

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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Do take LeVar Burton’s word for it: there are baseball games today.

Note: the numbers you see for pitchers are the updated ZiPS projections for 2011, which take into account early season performance and which are available on every player card.

Philadelphia at Washington | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Cliff Lee
201.1 IP, 8.00 K/9, 1.25 BB/9, 2.73 FIP

Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann
98.1 IP, 7.41 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 3.67 FIP

Notes
• Here’s a thing: Jordan Zimmermann’s original ZiPS projection was for 89.0 innings.
• Now it’s for 98.1 IP — as you can see.
• Here’s another thing: Zimmermann has a 2.79 FIP through (the very small sample of) 11.1 innings. His xFIP? 4.92.
• Which most represents his expected ERA?
• The suspense is terrific.

Notes: Cliff Lee Edition
• While, cosmetically, Lee’s performance to date looks poor (1-1, 7.48 ERA), he’s actually been The Real Cliff Lee.
• To wit: 10.1 IP, 12.19 K/9, 0.87 BB/9, 51.3 GB%, 2.17 xFIP.
• The two main conspirators in his inflated ERA? A .433 BABIP and 51.3 LOB%.

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With six games, today’s edition of One Night Only is ideal for the indecisive — or, maybe it isn’t.

Texas at Detroit | 1:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Dave Bush
157.0 IP, 5.50 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 4.86 FIP, 119 FIP- (ZiPS)

Tigers: Max Scherzer
170.0 IP, 9.69 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 3.26 FIP, 80 FIP- (ZiPS)

Notes
• The Rangers have been successful in helping both C.J. Wilson and, in a smaller sample, Alexi Ogando transition from relief to starterdom.
• Today, Dave Bush — relegated to the bullpen — will attempt to make it three for pitching coach Mike Maddux.
• In math, it’s a well-known fact: three = a charm.

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Today’s games prove what has long been suspected: you can have your druthers and eat them, too.

Oakland at Chicago Americans | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Athletics: Trevor Cahill
194.7 IP, 5.50 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 4.43 FIP, 108 FIP- (ZiPS)

White Sox: Edwin Jackson
205.7 IP, 7.18 K/9, 3.50 BB/9, 4.42 FIP, 108 FIP- (ZiPS)

Regarding Trevor Cahill, Part I
A thing that, like, 55-year-old women say when they see something and are seriously impressed by it, is they say, “I watched it breathlessly.”

Regardless of your age and/or gender, breathlessness was the only reasonable reaction to the two-seam fastball Cahill was throwing in his last appearance at Toronto — a game during which he posted this line: 8.0 IP, 27 TBF, 7 K, 0 BB, 11 GB on 20 batted balls (55.0%).

Though the two-seamer got just two whiffs of the 54 Cahill threw, it was a great joy to watch. Per Texas Leaguers, the pitch averaged close to 11 inches of armside run and almost zero “rise” against Toronto — relative to league averages of 9.36 and 3.87 inches, respectively.

A brief inspection of Cahill’s use of the pitch in the chart below (against right-handed batters) reveals the righty’s main intent — mainly, to keep it low and outside:

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Though we’re just a bit over a week into the season, every team in the majors has recorded over 300 plate appearances and has, at least to some degree, begun to fashion something like a “team identity.” Whether said identity is the one that defines the team even two weeks from now — that remains to be seen. But, like I always say, it’s never too early to begin making sweeping generalizations!

In any case, owing to the samples available, it’s not entirely inappropriate to look at our very proprietary watchability index, NERD, at the team level. NERD, which was introduced in these pages at the end of last August, represents an attempt to anticipate how interesting a team might be to the smarter baseball fan — taking into account both sabermetric variables (batting runs, bullpen xFIP) and more aesthetic or generally appealing ones (team speed, age, payroll).

Here are the results, first. Discussion regarding particular scores and a reminder on calculating NERD appear after the jump. (UPDATE: for some reason the Padres’ Pay variable was off. Now fixed. Thanks, reader Tony.)

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Today’s edition of One Night Only features three games you should probably watch and one you probably shouldn’t.

Texas at Detroit | 1:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Alexi Ogando
64.1 IP, 9.38 K/9, 4.34 BB/9, 3.66 FIP, 90 FIP- (ZiPS)

Tigers: Justin Verlander
215.0 IP, 9.21 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, 2.94 FIP, 72 FIP- (ZiPS)

Notes
• This afternoon marks Alexi Ogando’s second start of the season — which, that’s also his second start ever.
• His first start, against the Mariners last week, was pretty much a success: 6.0 IP, 22 TBF, 4 K, 2 BB, 5 GB on 16 batted balls (31.3%).
• As we suspected might be the case — and as Tommy Rancel confirmed afterwards — Ogando’s change-up use (i.e. what most pitchers use to neutralize opposite-handed batters) was almost non-extant.
• Probably as a result, his splits even in this one game were significant: 5.02 xFIP versus lefties, 0.94 xFIP versus righties.
• Small sample! Small sample! Small sample!

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Episode Sixty-Nine
In which the guest stays on the scene like a scout machine.

Headlines
The Frankie Piliere Story — Told!
Confusing Scout Terminology — Demystified!
Frankie’s “Guys” — Revealed!

Featuring
Frankie Piliere, Official Prospect Maven

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Friday, April 8th
WAS (Jordan Zimmermann) at NYN (R.A. Dickey) | 4:10pm ET
• Jordan Zimmermann’s season debut wasn’t the rousing success this author suspected it would be;
• Regard: 6.0 IP, 25 TBF, 2 K, 3 BB, 7 GB on 20 batted balls (35.0 GB%);
• Still, he’s a young pitcher with a 3.64 xFIP in his 128.1 major-league innings.
• And, regardless, R.A. Dickey’s pitching;
• Which, that allows us to revisit this image (again, courtesy of reader Trambone at Amazin’ Avenue):

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Below, please find three games arranged in chronological order, voted Best Kind of Order once again in 2011.

(Note: Today’s ZiPS projections include FIP-, which is a much less complicated thing than you might initially suspect. Basically, 100 is league average, lower is better.)

Oakland at Toronto | 12:37pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Athletics: Trevor Cahill
194.2 IP, 5.50 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 4.43 FIP, 108 FIP- (ZiPS)

Blue Jays: Ricky Romero
212.2 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 3.84 FIP, 94 FIP- (ZiPS)

Notes
• In his first start of the season, Trevor Cahill had eight strikeouts in just 4.2 innings.
• He also used his curve — generally regarded as excellent — about twice as much as he did during his average start last season.
• “Those two things are totally related,” you’re maybe thinking.
• “They’re actually probably not,” Chris Cwik just told us.
• He also told us his surname’s pronounced “Swick,” though, so maybe he can’t be trusted.

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