One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for April 11th

Today’s edition of One Night Only features three games you should probably watch and one you probably shouldn’t.

Texas at Detroit | 1:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Alexi Ogando
64.1 IP, 9.38 K/9, 4.34 BB/9, 3.66 FIP, 90 FIP- (ZiPS)

Tigers: Justin Verlander
215.0 IP, 9.21 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, 2.94 FIP, 72 FIP- (ZiPS)

Notes
• This afternoon marks Alexi Ogando’s second start of the season — which, that’s also his second start ever.
• His first start, against the Mariners last week, was pretty much a success: 6.0 IP, 22 TBF, 4 K, 2 BB, 5 GB on 16 batted balls (31.3%).
• As we suspected might be the case — and as Tommy Rancel confirmed afterwards — Ogando’s change-up use (i.e. what most pitchers use to neutralize opposite-handed batters) was almost non-extant.
• Probably as a result, his splits even in this one game were significant: 5.02 xFIP versus lefties, 0.94 xFIP versus righties.
• Small sample! Small sample! Small sample!

If I Had My Druthers
• “Small sample” would be the password to enter a sweet new sabermetrically themed speakeasy.
• Bill James would be there, and Rob Neyer, and the Very Elusive Tom Tango.
• And Earnshaw Cook, too — and he’d be hammered.

Cincinnati at San Diego | 10:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Reds: Edinson Volquez
108.3 IP, 9.56 K/9, 4.57 BB/9, 3.80 FIP, 93 FIP- (ZiPS)

Padres: Mat Latos
126.7 IP, 8.81 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 3.28 FIP, 80 FIP- (ZiPS)

Notes
• Please believe me, reader, when I say: “I have a fever, and the only prescription is more Edinson Volquez.”
• Please believe me also, reader, when I tell you that Volquez — already the highest-rated major leaguer on Team Joy Squad — appears to’ve been scourged by cruelest fate already this season.
• Regard, through two starts (emphasis mine): 11.0 IP, 10.64 K/9, 5.73 BB/9, .321 BABIP, 61.3 GB%, 37.5% HR/FB, 7.36 ERA, 3.46 xFIP.
• Last season, the highest HR/FB for a qualified pitchers was 13.8%, belonging to James Shields.
• Oh, and another thing: Mat Latos, dealing with an inflamed bursa sac (gross!) in his right shoulder, will make his season debut today.

If I Had My Druthers
• There’d be a more polite way of saying the same thing as “inflamed bursa sac.”
• That’s all, actually.
• Because it sounds like something else, I mean. Something even more painful.

Los Angeles Nationals at San Francisco | 10:15pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
193.7 IP, 9.43 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 3.12 FIP, 77 FIP- (ZiPS)

Giants: Madison Bumgarner
165.0 IP, 5.84 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 3.97 FIP, 97 FIP- (ZiPS)

Notes
• As of Sunday afternoon, the Giants are third overall in the Base Runs standings with a “should-be” .713 winning percentage (6-2).
• This, despite an actual record of 4-4.
• Small sample! Small sample! Small sample.
• A thing that might make winning difficult this evening, however, is Clayton Kershaw.
• Kershaw, through two starts: 13.0 IP, 11.77 K/9, 1.38 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 37.9 GB%, 15.4% HR/FB, 2.09 xFIP.

If I Had My Druthers
• Clayton Kershaw would throw the Platonic Slider during today’s game.
• That’s when the “divine idea” of the slider is manifest in reality.
• It’d be like that video for Belinda Carlisle’s “Heaven Is A Place On Earth,” I bet — except with even more masked, globe-holding women, probably.

A Game I’m Unable to Endorse
Tampa Bay at Boston | 7:10pm ET
• On the one hand, the very interesting Jeremy Hellickson is pitching.
• On the other, so is the harrowing-to-watch Daisuke Matsuzaka.
• For one thing, look at this: Dice-K averages 25.5 seconds between pitches for his major-league career. (League average is generally around 21.5.)
• And also he walks everyone and their uncle.
• Yes, their actual uncle.