Though the Spice Girls never mentioned it, sometimes one can become two, as well.

Friday, July 16 | Texas at Boston | 7:10pm ET
Friday, July 16 | Washington at Florida | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers (The Ones Who Matter)
Rangers: Colby Lewis (NERD: 6)
110.2 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, .266 BABIP, 40.3% GB, 8.5% HR/FB, 3.96 xFIP

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg (NERD: ca. Infinity)
42.2 IP, 12.87 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 45.7% GB, 10.0% HR/FB, 1.99 xFIP

Zealous Introduction
If you ever wanted to know how Kurtz felt when he said “The horror, the horror” that one time in that one book, you might very well find out tonight when you’re forced to choose between watching Stephen Strasburg and Colby Lewis. “Cistulli,” at least one of you is probably saying, “ever hear of a little thing called ‘flipping back and forth between games’?” To which I reply: “Yes.” And also: “Trying to watch games simultaneously is a little bit like being in a Cash Cube: try and grab for all the money at once, and all you get is not that much money.”

Some Brief Evangelizing
To my sabremetric brothers and sisters, I’d like to inform you that the Most Reverend Colby Lewis will be preaching the Gospel of Joy tonight from the Fenway Park mound. Here’s what you can expect: lifted spirits, charismatic gifts, and a slightly regrettable soul patch. Here’s another thing you can expect: basically what you’ve been seeing since Lewis’s stateside return.

By way of example, cast your eyes at Lewis’s pitch selection and whiff rates for the entire season (courtesy Texas Leaguers):

Pitch	SEL	WHIFF
FF	54.0%	6.1%
SL	26.2%	16.7%
CU	11.0%	8.0%
CH	8.6%	7.7%

Now here are the same numbers, but just for his most recent start (July 7 versus Cleveland):

Pitch	SEL	WHIFF
FF	51.6%	6.1%
SL	27.4%	15.4%
CU	10.5%	0.0%
CH	10.5%	10.0%

It strikes me as rather extraordinary just how closely those lists resemble each other. I don’t know what this’d look like if we did it for a large sample of pitchers. In any case, it appears to suggest consistency — both in Lewis’s repertoire and its effect on batters.

We can probably expect Lewis to throw his fastpiece slightly more than half the time, his slidething about a quarter of the time, and then the curve and change split pretty evenly over the remainder.

What the What?!?
As I’ve probably mentioned here, Matthew Carruth of Lookout Landing does these great series previews over at Lookout Landing. One particular service he provides in said previews is to rate — using Pitchf/x data — to rate on the 20-80 scouting scale each offering in a pitcher’s repertoire by whiff rate, zone rate, and groundball rate.

Here’s what happens when we do that for Strasburg:

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	47%	98	80	75	45
CU	23%	83	75	75	80
CH	19%	90	80	75	70
SI	11%	96	40	45	20
Total			80	75	50

Observation #1: Egads.

Observation #2: It’s actually a little hard to tell what’s been more effective, Strasburg’s curve or his change.

Observation #3: His fastball also appears to be decent.

Two Hitters
• Though Lewis has definitely stolen the heart of the present author, original All-Joyer Daniel Nava isn’t going softly into that good night, slashing .300/.371/.488 (.371 wOBA, 128 wRC+) through 89 PA. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad: he’s got a .418 BABIP. Per StatCorner, he’s currently sporting a .277 wOBAr — that is, wOBA regressed to some combination of Nava’s and a league-average BABIP. That’s not so good.
• Maybe during some sort of spirit quest or whatever, you saw Roger Bernadina’s blossoming into a useful right fielder for the Nationals. Otherwise, it’s likely that you’re still kinda like “Bernawho?” when you see his name. In any case, Funky Cold Bernadina is currently slashing .282/.345/.436 (.347 wOBA, 114 wRC+) through over 200 PA. The difference between Nava and Bernadina is that the latter is currently sporting a totally believable .329 BABIP.

If I Had My Druthers
• One of these games would get rained out, thus removing the burden of choice from my shoulders.
• Colby Lewis would get a hem on his garment, so I could touch it (i.e. the hem).
• Both teams would go out to Dairy Queen after the game.

Actually, we’re not all special: that’s tonight’s important message.

Nationals at Americans | Tuesday, July 13 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Nationals: Ubaldo Jimenez (NERD: 8)
127.0 IP, 8.01 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, .248 BABIP, 51.9% GB, 5.4% HR/FB, 3.71 xFIP

Americans: David Price (NERD: 8)
115.1 IP, 7.80 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 47.2% GB, 7.8% HR/FB, 3.95 xFIP

A Logic Problem
The All-Star Game, as the urban youth of our country would likely say, “is what it is.” “Is what it is,” as the academics in our country would likely say, represents an instance of tautology. Therefore, it can be said that the All-Star Game is itself tautological.

Discuss.

(Seriously. Do it. Now.)

Service, With or Without a Smile
I think I’m stating the obvious when I say that we at FanGraphs view ourselves — more than baseball fans or ruthless capitalists — we view ourselves as public servants. (Indeed, no other reasonable explanation exists for Jack Moore’s decision to tweet factoids about Joe Morgan’s career, with no prompting whatsoever, at approximately 3am local time.)

To further continue this commitment to our readership, I’ve included the complete rosters for each team at the end of this post — all with links to each respective All-Star’s FanGraphs player card.

An Obligatory Comment in re Colby Lewis
Paddy McMahon of Around the Majors and Knuckle Curve Semi-Drop tweeted the following almost-true truth:

PadmanJones colby lewis is tied with the AL’s ASG starter (price) in WAR. lewis is not on the team. @cistulli mad.

I say “almost true” for this reason: I’m not mad. Rather, it’s probably something more like melancholy that I’m feeling. Colby Lewis, as is widely known, has been responsible for a very many, very intense spiritual experiences. Yet, millions will be robbed tonight of Lewis’s extraordinary mound presence and his darting slutter.

“Fie, for shame,” is the only reasonable response to that.

If I Had My Druthers
• In the midst of a high-leverage situation, American League coach Joe Girardi would come to the mound and signal for a right-handed reliever.
• Simultaneously, Colby Lewis would enter Angel Stadium, from the sky, via parachute, and land on the mound part of the field.
• Also, Lewis would breathe fire. (Note: I recognize that fire-breathing isn’t entirely related to the rest of the fantasy, but if I had my druthers, that’s what would happen.)

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Episode Forty
In which the panel sleepwalks through the pod.

Headlines
Guess What? Chisenbutt
A Hitch in His Giddy-Up: Ben Revere’s Swing
How About Trout?: On the Angels’ Fine Prospect
… and other carefully worded statements!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Bryan Smith, Prospect Maven Deluxe

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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Episode Thirty-Nine
In which the panel is all stars all the time.

Headlines
Cliff Hanger: Where Will Lee End Up?
The Futures Game: Is It Past Its Prime?
All-Star Game Coverage: Blah to the Blah to the Blah

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Resident Philosophizer
Bryan Smith, Prospect Maven Deluxe

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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For better or worse, today’s edition of One Night Only was penned by a white person.

Ya heard!

Minnesota at Toronto | Wednesday, July 7 | 7:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Kevin Slowey (NERD: 4)
88.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, .325 BABIP, 27.9% GB, 8.7% GB, 4.64 xFIP

Blue Jays: Marc Rzepczynski (Season Debut)
61.1 IP, 8.80 K/9, 4.40 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 51.2% GB, 14.9% HR/FB, 3.70 xFIP (2009)

Hot Button Topic
It’s amazing how, for all the handwringing and outrage in re the ethics of human cloning, how no one’s mentioned that the Minnesota Twins have been doing it for years. Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, every single pitcher in their current starting rotation: they’re genetically engineered not to walk batters. (Actually, come to think of it, maybe “Twins” isn’t just an allusion to regional geography, but a sly clue as to the organization’s illicit bioengineering operation.)

In any case, Kevin Slowey is very clearly a product of the Twinkers’ advanced scientific efforts. On the season, 54.1% of his pitches have been in the zone. That places him fifth overall among 109 qualified pitchers.

Quick, Get a Graphing Calculator!
And plot the following points (x, y): (2008, 36.1%), (2009, 32.0%), (2010, 27.9%). Now insert a best-fit line up in that piece.

Notice anything? Those y-coordinates are Slowey’s groundball rates. They’re going down, down, down — like, to the point where they might be negative someday.

Question: Should the Twins just play with three infielders when Slowey pitches? Like, have a first baseman, two other infielders, and then a softball-type outfield? I’m not joking a lot.

Actually, What I Wanted to Say Is
Tonight’s starter for the Blue Jays, Marc Rzepczynski, is making his season debut after missing the first three months of the season to a fractured middle finger that he sustained while attempting to field a comebacker during spring training.

You can tell from his numbers above that the Rze had a pretty excellent major league debut, inducing strikeouts and ground balls at an above-average rate, and thus leading to his sub-4.00 xFIP. The Rze profiles — at least, statistically — like a couple others guys: Jonathan Sanchez (but with more grounders), Gio Gonzalez (but with more grounders), Jorge de la Rosa, and Manny Parra.

The thing is, the Rze’s fastball velocity (88.0 mph in 2009) doesn’t even come within 2 mph of the slowest guy on that list (Sanchez, who averages about 91 mph). Moreover, his (below-average) swinging-strike rate of 7.3% suggests that his strikeout totals might have been flukish. Even so, he’s an interesting case study.

How to Pronounce Rzepczynski
Put your lips together and blow — but while you’re blowing, say the entire alphabet in Polish.

Ta-da!

If I Had My Druthers
• Either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion would hit a Kevin Slowey fastball all the way to America.
• U.S. armed forces would shoot down said home run ball — via both air and ground fire — at the very moment it crossed into American air space.
• The entire thing would be videotaped using the same technology as in The Matrix.

Today’s edition of One Night Only is totally organic and farm-raised and all that crap.

Cleveland at Texas | Tuesday, July 6 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Indians: Justin Masterson (NERD: 8)
94.2 IP, 7.32 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, .345 BABIP, 64.2% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP

Rangers: C.J. Wilson (NERD: 2)
102.1 IP, 6.42 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, .258 BABIP, 51.0% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 4.64 xFIP

A Possible Comment You’re Making
Hey, chief: what’s the deal? C.J. Wilson has a crap NERD score. What’re you thinking? Why not talk about Jered Weaver (8) versus Jake Peavy (6) tonight. Or CC Sabathia (7) versus Trevor Cahill (6)?

Two or Three Comments I’m Making Right Back
1. Don’t call me “chief.”

2. Yes, it’s true: we live in a post-NERD world now. And, yes, we have to face it: things just aren’t as simple as they used to be. I get it. But we also have to make sure that — despite the fact that simply because the incredibly proprietary and deadly accurate NERD score is designed to make our lives easier — we have to make sure that we don’t stop using our mind grapes. It’s like that part in the Bible where God says, “And I giveth thee Mind Grapes, so that ye will always use them, etc., etc.” That’s a direct quote. I’m not lying.

Anyway, if you’ll recall, when Jerome Holtzman invented the Save, he was doing so merely to credit a certain breed of pitcher for their otherwise nebulous contributions to the game. What happened, as we generally know, is that coaches began to deploy relievers not according to leverage (if they ever really did in the first place, I don’ know), but according to the criteria of the save. That’s what we in the industry refer to as “totally lame-o.”

3. My point: C.J. Wilson has become a credible starting pitcher — one with a groundball rate above 50% — after relieving all of last season and for most of his career before that.

Cleveland’s Rookie Crop
If, like that great philosopher Socrates, you’re into hairless youths, then the Cleveland Indians are very probably your jam. Here’s the Cleveland lineup from last night’s game at Texas.

Michael Brantley, CF, 23
Jayson Nix, 2B, 27
Carlos Santana, C, 24
Travis Hafner, DH, 33
Austin Kearns, RF, 30
Jhonny Peralta, 3B, 28
Matt LaPorta, 1B, 25
Trevor Crowe, LF, 26
Jason Donald, SS, 25

Per Baseball Reference, the average age of a field player in the MLB this year is 29.2 years old. Cleveland’s lineup last night had an average age of 26.8 years old.

Briefly, On Carlos Santana
He’s so good. Right now, he’s slashing .297/.436/.622. That’s good for a .447 wOBA and 184 wRC+. He’s walking (19 BB) more than he strikes out (14 K). He hit a ball 444 feet last night.

Briefly, On Jayson Nix
He appears to be the new second baseman for the Indians. He hit two homers for the Tribe last night. Also, if, hypothetically speaking, you’re the sort of person who owned both Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley on your fantasy team, Nix might not be the worst replacement in the world. He had 12 homers and 10 stolen bases for the White Sox in just half a season last year.

If I Had My Druthers
The next person to whom I mention the name Carlos Santana will not, like almost all of his predecessors, make an allusion to Black Magic Woman or sweet guitar licks or anything else like that.

Episode Thirty-Eight
In which the guest gets all autobiographical.

Headlines
Pre-Sabermetric Dave
A Young Jeremy Brown
The Whole Open Letter Thing
On Work and Baseball

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Man on a Mission

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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I don’t know how it happened, exactly. One minute I was minding my own business, wandering aimlessly around the internet like I always do; the next, I was discussing — with Eric Nusbaum of Pitchers and Poets fame — the role of chance in baseball, the unfortunate career path of Tagg Bozied, and the Book of Job all at once.

What follows is the fruit of that conversation.

Carson: Eric, I know some things about you that the reader probably doesn’t — namely, that (a) until yesterday, the first baseman on your fantasy baseball team was Luke Scott, that (b) Scott is no longer your first baseman because he injured himself during a home trot last night, and that (c) the only reason you had Luke Scott in the first place was as a replacement for Kendry Morales, who also hurt himself after hitting a home run.

So, my hard-hitting question is: what the H, dude?

Eric: You could say I have the luck of Job, or maybe of Tagg Bozied. If not that, then perhaps I am the one causing these injuries. Perhaps there is something haunted about my team — Chase Utley went down this week, too.

Carson: I want to address the possibility of your superpowers momentarily, but first let’s discuss Tagg Bozied. Bozied, in the event that the reader isn’t familiar, is the outfielder who, in 2004, after hitting a walk-off grand slam to beat the Tacoma Rainiers, ruptured the patella tendon in his left knee while landing on home plate. In other words, it was a pretty similar injury to Morales’s. The difference is that Bozied was only — what? — 23 or 24 at the time, was raking in Triple-A, and has never made it to the majors despite still being around.

Do you think that’s the worst case scenario for a prospect? And also: what is it that’s so — I don’t know — tragic-seeming about Bozied’s case?

Eric: I don’t know if it’s the worst, but it has to be close. Bozied will always have the benefit of wondering what could have been. That has to be slightly better than never getting hurt, but also never being good enough. Or maybe it’s not better — maybe knowing you had the ability to play in the majors but were denied the opportunity by chance, or Fortuna, or whatever causes these things to happen is more painful.

Carson: There’s a scene in Shutter Island where Leonardo DiWhatshisbutt’s character is in a lake, and something bad has just happened. I won’t say what, exactly, but let’s just say it’s bad. And when this bad thing happens, we get a cut to a shot of DiCaprio from above. DiCaprio leans back, looks into the heavens, and yells, “Why God?!?” just like has happened in hundreds of other films. My wife and I looked at each other, like, “For real? Martin Scorsese thinks this is a good idea, this shot?”

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Amazingly, Corresponding Points is not the name of a lightly produced PBS talk show from the 1980s. Rather, it’s an experiment with which we’ll be, uh, experimenting today.

The concept isn’t difficult: target one of the interweb’s better writers, ask him questions via email, and then re-print the emails in full to give the post that “raw” look everyone’s so into these days.

Today’s guest is Drew Fairservice. Because you frequent better blogs everywhere, you’ve almost definitely seen Mr. Fairservice’s work at Walk Off Walk and Ghostrunner on First (GROF), his Blue Jay-centric blog. Fairservice practices what he calls a “liberated fandom.” Is that some sorta Canadian BS, or an ethos we can all embrace?

Find out, in this edition of Corresponding Points!

From: Carson Cistulli
Sent: Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 10:45 PM
To: Drew Fairservice
Subject: Hey, it’s Carson from FanGraphs

Drew,

At GROF, you recently wrote a post in which you looked at the watchability of four Blue Jay starters using our incredibly proprietary NERD metric. In said post — which, by the way, I totally didn’t find by googling my own name — you note how well the Jays in question come out by this measure. I wondered how the Jays’ top-four starters compared to those of other teams. If my calculations are correct, here’s the (awkwardly formatted) answer:

1. Boston (33): Tim Wakefield (10), Jon Lester (9), Josh Beckett (7), Clay Buchholz (7).

2. Colorado (32): Jorge de la Rosa (9), Ubaldo Jimenez (8), Jhoulys Chacin (8), Jason Hammel (7).

3. Philadelphia (31): Roy Halladay (10), Jamie Moyer (8), Cole Hamels (8), Joe Blanton (5).

4. L.A. Dodgers (30): Clayton Kershaw (8), Vicente Padilla (8), Hiroki Kuroda (7), John Ely (7).

T5. St. Louis (29): Adam Wainwright (8), Brad Penny (7), Jaime Garcia (7), Chris Carpenter (7).

T5. Minnesota (29): Francisco Liriano (10), Scott Baker (9), Carl Pavano (6), Kevin Slowey (4).

T5. Toronto (29): Brandon Morrow (8), Ricky Romero (8), Brett Cecil (7), Shaun Marcum (6).

A couple of observations. One, NERD isn’t infallible. I’m still not in love with Jamie Moyer getting an 8. I’m a fan of Moyer on a conceptual level, I guess — he’s 47 and throws his fastball at 81 mph — but I’m not sure I like watching him. C’est la frigging vie, right?

Two, the difference between Toronto and all the other teams on that list is that, for the Blue Jays, the playoffs aren’t really a thing. Cool Standings — which, I don’t know if their methodology is flawless, but it seems mostly smart — has Toronto’s odds of making the post-season at about 5%. The Dodgers are next-worst at 14%. Every other team on that list is above 20%.

Obviously, this has a lot to do with the division in which the Blue Jays do their balling. In another division — the NL Central, the NL West — the Blue Jays are very likely competitive.

I imagine this is only of some consolation to you. Fact is, any fan worth his salt — and when I say “salt” I mean that bangin’ Portuguese sea salt, not like the Morton iodized variety — any fan worth his salt wants to see his team winning as much as possible.

But I wonder: have those four pitchers — Morrow, Romero, Cecil, Marcum — have they made the season more watchable than the Jays’ place in the standings might otherwise suggest?

From: Drew Fairservice
Sent: Wed, Jun 30, 2010 at 6:53 AM
To: Carson Cistulli
Subject: Re: Hey, it’s Carson from FanGraphs

Consolation is old hat for Jays fans.

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Episode Thirty-Seven
In which the panel is fantastic.

Headlines
Brad Climbing the Lidge?
Rumbles (re: Aging) in the Bronx
Parra: The Manny He Seems to Be?

Featuring
Michael Axisa, Our Man in New York
Zach Sanders, Pod Workhorse

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

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