One Night Only: Decisions, Decisions

Though the Spice Girls never mentioned it, sometimes one can become two, as well.

Friday, July 16 | Texas at Boston | 7:10pm ET
Friday, July 16 | Washington at Florida | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers (The Ones Who Matter)
Rangers: Colby Lewis (NERD: 6)
110.2 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, .266 BABIP, 40.3% GB, 8.5% HR/FB, 3.96 xFIP

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg (NERD: ca. Infinity)
42.2 IP, 12.87 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 45.7% GB, 10.0% HR/FB, 1.99 xFIP

Zealous Introduction
If you ever wanted to know how Kurtz felt when he said “The horror, the horror” that one time in that one book, you might very well find out tonight when you’re forced to choose between watching Stephen Strasburg and Colby Lewis. “Cistulli,” at least one of you is probably saying, “ever hear of a little thing called ‘flipping back and forth between games’?” To which I reply: “Yes.” And also: “Trying to watch games simultaneously is a little bit like being in a Cash Cube: try and grab for all the money at once, and all you get is not that much money.”

Some Brief Evangelizing
To my sabremetric brothers and sisters, I’d like to inform you that the Most Reverend Colby Lewis will be preaching the Gospel of Joy tonight from the Fenway Park mound. Here’s what you can expect: lifted spirits, charismatic gifts, and a slightly regrettable soul patch. Here’s another thing you can expect: basically what you’ve been seeing since Lewis’s stateside return.

By way of example, cast your eyes at Lewis’s pitch selection and whiff rates for the entire season (courtesy Texas Leaguers):

Pitch	SEL	WHIFF
FF	54.0%	6.1%
SL	26.2%	16.7%
CU	11.0%	8.0%
CH	8.6%	7.7%

Now here are the same numbers, but just for his most recent start (July 7 versus Cleveland):

Pitch	SEL	WHIFF
FF	51.6%	6.1%
SL	27.4%	15.4%
CU	10.5%	0.0%
CH	10.5%	10.0%

It strikes me as rather extraordinary just how closely those lists resemble each other. I don’t know what this’d look like if we did it for a large sample of pitchers. In any case, it appears to suggest consistency — both in Lewis’s repertoire and its effect on batters.

We can probably expect Lewis to throw his fastpiece slightly more than half the time, his slidething about a quarter of the time, and then the curve and change split pretty evenly over the remainder.

What the What?!?
As I’ve probably mentioned here, Matthew Carruth of Lookout Landing does these great series previews over at Lookout Landing. One particular service he provides in said previews is to rate — using Pitchf/x data — to rate on the 20-80 scouting scale each offering in a pitcher’s repertoire by whiff rate, zone rate, and groundball rate.

Here’s what happens when we do that for Strasburg:

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
FB	47%	98	80	75	45
CU	23%	83	75	75	80
CH	19%	90	80	75	70
SI	11%	96	40	45	20
Total			80	75	50

Observation #1: Egads.

Observation #2: It’s actually a little hard to tell what’s been more effective, Strasburg’s curve or his change.

Observation #3: His fastball also appears to be decent.

Two Hitters
• Though Lewis has definitely stolen the heart of the present author, original All-Joyer Daniel Nava isn’t going softly into that good night, slashing .300/.371/.488 (.371 wOBA, 128 wRC+) through 89 PA. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad: he’s got a .418 BABIP. Per StatCorner, he’s currently sporting a .277 wOBAr — that is, wOBA regressed to some combination of Nava’s and a league-average BABIP. That’s not so good.
• Maybe during some sort of spirit quest or whatever, you saw Roger Bernadina’s blossoming into a useful right fielder for the Nationals. Otherwise, it’s likely that you’re still kinda like “Bernawho?” when you see his name. In any case, Funky Cold Bernadina is currently slashing .282/.345/.436 (.347 wOBA, 114 wRC+) through over 200 PA. The difference between Nava and Bernadina is that the latter is currently sporting a totally believable .329 BABIP.

If I Had My Druthers
• One of these games would get rained out, thus removing the burden of choice from my shoulders.
• Colby Lewis would get a hem on his garment, so I could touch it (i.e. the hem).
• Both teams would go out to Dairy Queen after the game.