Volquez’s Return
The Reds are in first place after the All-Star game and are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 1995. In order to help them finish out the season, they will be adding a pitcher who arguably vaults to the top of the rotation in Edinson Volquez, who will be making his return from Tommy John surgery on Saturday.
The Reds have already used nine starters this year, partially thanks to injuries to Aaron Harang and Homer Bailey. The rotation currently features three rookies, in Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Matt Maloney, and Sam LeCure has also seen time in the rotation. As a whole, this group, along with Harang, Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto have seen decent results, with a 4.10 ERA. But peripherals suggest that this group is performing over its head – as a whole, they have a 4.43 FIP and a 4.60 xFIP, and I’m not sure if that kind of talent is good enough to stave off the Cardinals for another 70 games.
Volquez likely won’t be the kind of ace that he looked like in 2008, where he threw 196 innings of 3.60 FIP baseball. He was poor before going down with injury in 2009, wasn’t much good in 2007, and is coming off one of the hardest surgeries to recover from in all of sports. But ZiPS still projected a 4.04 FIP for this season and CHONE projected a 4.11 mark, which is almost certainly a large improvement over Maloney, who hasn’t shown the ability to draw strikeouts in the MLB. If he hits around his ZiPS projection and can throw about 70 innings, he’ll provide about 1.0 WAR for Cincinnati, and at this point, every win is extremely important.
Of course, there’s a good amount of uncertainty surrounding Volquez given the fact that he is returning from Tommy John surgery. Given his excellent performance at AAA, where he struck out 28 and only walked eight in 31 innings, there’s reason to believe that Volquez is ready to go. It would be unreasonable for Cincinnati to expect Volquez to become a true ace for them, but he should become the best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang’s return. The fact that they’ve been able to hold first place until the cavalry could arrive is a great sign for the team. If Volquez can even be 75% of what he was in 2008, the Reds will be in excellent shape in their quest for the NL Central crown.
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I find it interesting that while everybody is waiting for the Reds to fall to earth and the Cards to surge ahead, nobody seems to want to point out that the Cards staff as a 3.36 ERA despite a 3.91 FIP despite a just slightly above average DER.
I certainly don’t think the Reds are going to walk away with the division, but the standard story seems to be that the Cards are under-performing and primed to surge ahead. I just don’t see it.
You are ignoring that maybe the Cardinals just have a good defense behind their pitchers.
Well, so do the Reds.
Jack, Harang has been maybe the third or fourth best pitcher in this rotation this year. I think most Reds fans will tell you that Arroyo, Leake and even Cueto have been better. I doubt that changes when he returns, and Volquez’ presence only increases the likelihood.
Volquez is also coming off PED suspension (served during rehab), right? I know it’s notoriously difficult to figure out if/how that influenced prior numbers, but probably could have been part of the “good amount of uncertainty” paragraph as a factor.
“but he should become the best pitcher on the team, at least until Harang’s return.”
I think stating Harang is the best pitcher on the team is a stretch. Most consistent maybe but he gets knocked around like a pinata more often than not. Although I’m not really sure who else it would be.
He shouldn’t be starting anything on Saturday except his 50 game suspension. What kind of a rinky-dink sports league allows such a monster loophole to exist where injured guys are free to dope?
Actually Harang is at best the 6th best guy in the rotation and has been for two years. Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Leake and Wood are all exceptional! Harang is a great guy and Bailey is still trying to figure things out so both are essentially in the way. Problem is we have to start them both because of their salaries and because we want to shop them around..so Wood will have to be sent down.
Volquez is hitting 97/98 in AAA, and he never did that before. Some guys do come back from TJ throwing harder than before they had the surgery.
I’ve got to think that given the high failure rate, returning from a torn labrum is a more difficult injury to return from than elbow injuries requiring TJ surgery. It seems like every pitcher comes back from TJ surgery nowadays.
Totally agree.
It’s really become a “standard procedure” sort of thing.
It was quite an odd choice to add a link to Tommy John’s stats.
I got a kick out of it.
(1) Whether Volquez was using PED’s for performance or taking fertility drugs to start a family (his claim) is unclear.
(2) The interesting thing about the Cards is they are doing this with 2/5’s of their rotation on the DL. Garcia has been a big plus, and Wainwright is destined for another 3rd in CYA. Looks like he’ll always be a bride’s maid …
(3) My question regarding StL is how often they outperform their FIP. They are not traditionally a “strike em out” team, but more of a pound the zone with late-breaking pitches sort of group. Carp’s HR rate has regressed and then some. So, I’m wondering if them outperforming their FIP is “normal” for them.
As a Cardinals fan, I can see where fans of the Reds are getting tired of hearing about being overtaken by the Cards. My concern is that 2010 is just the beginning for the Reds and this performance will continue for the next few years, like it did for Houston.
I guess, in my mind, I still think of the Reds as an NL West team, since they haven’t made big waves in the Central … yet. But man, their future looks good in the division. If they do hold on, I’ll pull for them in the playoffs. They have a fun team, although I cannot stand their manager.
I’ve been making the same point about the Cards rotation, though any team with those three at the top could afford less than stellar 4 and 5 starters and still compete, as the Cards are demonstrating. Wainwright is a beast.
Tommy John surgery is definitely NOT one of the hardest surgeries to recover from in all of sports.
In fact, nowadays, unlike when Tommy John and other pioneers had the surgery, the prognosis for a complete recovery is extremely high provided that the patient performs the appropriate rehabilitation.