Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Miami | 19:10 ET
Cueto (155.0 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Fernandez (131.2 IP, 57 xFIP-)
This brief entry begins and also mostly ends with an examination of the following graph, which depicts the season-long trajectory of the National League clubs which currently possess the top-five probabilities of reaching a divisional series.

Notably, two of the lines here represent clubs that are also clubs involved in this game tonight. The Giants possesses about a 62% chance of qualifying for the NLDS; the Marlins, about a 21% chance. Which is to say: this contest features real consequences for each team. Which is to say: what else can one demand of this game that is simultaneously human and all-too-human?

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Los Angeles NL | 19:10 ET
Price (150.2 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. McCarthy (29.1 IP, 90 xFIP-)
On the one hand, here’s a game featuring two clubs, in Boston and Los Angeles, at the very height of postseason uncertainty; on the other, here’s a second game featuring two other clubs, in Houston and Texas, that belong to the same division. The numbers suggest greater certainty regarding their respective postseason odds (with the Rangers qualifying, the Astros not) but their game also possesses greater consequences. There’s no wrong choice is the point. Although, that said: there’s no right choice, is a second and valid point.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Kansas City | 19:15 ET
Sanchez (139.1 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Duffy (108.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
Toronto currently possesses almost as little certainty as is mathematically possible regarding their postseason future. Per the methodology used at the site, the Blue Jays hold a 45.1% probability of winning the AL East and 42.0% probability of qualifying for the wild card. As for all of us, their future is dark, uncertain.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.

MONDAY
The Dylan Bundy Hype Train Is Finally Boarding by August Fagerstrom
Conveniently, Bundy recorded the best start of his brief career the day after this post.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Wright (137.2 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (116.1 IP, 95 xFIP-)
This game isn’t the evening’s most highly rated one because Andrew Benintendi might appear in it. Rather, it’s because both the Red Sox and Dodgers find themselves contending with such daunting uncertainty wherein the postseason is concerned. It’s possible that Andrew Benintendi will appear in the game, however. Which provides the reader an opportunity to observe Andrew Benintendi, Hot Prospect, and even to warm one’s hands by Benintendi’s considerable radiant heat.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
Two prominent members of the Five, right-handers Junior Guerra and Aaron Wilkerson, have been acquired by the Brewers since that club hired David Stearns as its general manager. Outfielder Greg Allen very nearly became the third. Widely reported to represent one part of Cleveland’s offer to Milwaukee in exchange for catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Allen ultimately remained with Cleveland after the Brewers catcher vetoed the trade.

Allen was recently promoted to Double-A Akron and appears to have adapted quickly to that level. In the 22 plate appearances since last week’s edition of this column, Allen’s recorded a 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio plus also a double and two home runs — while making all five of his starts in center field for Akron. He remains second on this season’s haphazardly calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Pomeranz (116.1 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Miranda (2.0 IP, 38 xFIP-)
Cuban left-hander Ariel Miranda, signed originally by Baltimore for $725,000 and recently just traded to Seattle for Wade Miley, is expected to record his first major-league start tonight. Though lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen gave the 27-year-old a future-value grade of only 40, he also suggested that said grade didn’t fully account for all the possible outcomes regarding Miranda.

From Longenhagen’s report:

While he only projects as a back-end starter or up-and-down type of pitcher, I think there’s a chance the Mariners have netted themselves an arm that can compete every fifth day rather than one upon which they call merely in emergencies. Cuban prospects have been volatile because, at least in part, of how inconsistently they play in real games leading up to their MiLB/MLB careers. It’s possible Miranda is just now beginning to hit his stride and that the Mariners have caught some lightning in a bottle, even if it’s just an inning-eating, slightly above-replacement kind of lightning.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Colorado | 20:10 ET
Stewart (5.0 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Anderson (54.0 IP, 79 xFIP-)
Here’s a syllogism regarding Brock Stewart, who’s scheduled to record his second-ever major-league start tonight:

• Pitchers who record strong strikeout- and walk-rate differentials (frequently expressed as K-BB%) as minor leaguers tend to experience major-league success.
• Among all affiliated minor-league pitchers who’ve recorded 100-plus innings, Brock Stewart has produced the top K-BB% this season.
• Therefore, Brock Stewart is likely to experience major-league success.
• Also, he recorded an average fastball velocity of 94 mph in his lone major-league appearance this year.
• That’s not really part of the syllogism, but it’s still relevant to Stewart’s major-league success.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Radio.

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Episode 673
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio, he guides the program’s host through the morass of transactions which occurred at baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 57 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Houston | 20:10 ET
Dickey (131.1 IP, 111 xFIP-) vs. McCullers (76.1 IP, 74 xFIP-)
It isn’t true, but what if it were, that the sum of Lance McCullers‘ innings-pitched total and xFIP- always equaled 150? Like, if he pitched seven innings tonight, his xFIP- would drop to 67. If he pitched another seven innings in his next start, he’d then have a 60 xFIP-. And then, if he recorded 61 innings in his next-next start, he would sport a negative xFIP-.

In conclusion, what the author has utilized here is a series of counterfactual conditionals, utilizing both the subjunctive and conditional verb moods.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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