NERD Game Scores for Monday, August 08, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.


Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Miami | 19:10 ET
Cueto (155.0 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Fernandez (131.2 IP, 57 xFIP-)
This brief entry begins and also mostly ends with an examination of the following graph, which depicts the season-long trajectory of the National League clubs which currently possess the top-five probabilities of reaching a divisional series.

chart (2)

Notably, two of the lines here represent clubs that are also clubs involved in this game tonight. The Giants possesses about a 62% chance of qualifying for the NLDS; the Marlins, about a 21% chance. Which is to say: this contest features real consequences for each team. Which is to say: what else can one demand of this game that is simultaneously human and all-too-human?

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

Two Other Brief Notes
A Perfunctory Note on the Tigers
The author’s brother-in-law would like the author himself to bring the Detroit Tigers’ postseason odds — which have improved by roughly 30 points over the past two weeks — to the attention of whatever readers didn’t previously have that information within range of their attention.

Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Texas at Colorado, starts at 20:40 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

NERD Scores for August 08, 2016
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Jake Odorizzi TB 5 5 7 8 9 TOR R.A. Dickey 19:07
Johnny Cueto SF 7 8 8 7 10 MIA Jose Fernandez 19:10
Rob Whalen* ATL 5 2 4 3 6 MIL Zach Davies 19:20
Collin McHugh HOU 7 5 6 5 7 MIN Tyler Duffey 20:10
Cody Reed CIN 8 3 6 6 7 STL Michael Wacha 20:15
Cole Hamels TEX 6 4 5 4 8 COL Tyler Anderson 20:40
Kevin Gausman BAL 8 9 6 3 5 OAK Kendall Graveman 22:05
Michael Fulmer DET 9 7 6 5 3 SEA Hisashi Iwakuma 22:10
Zach Eflin PHI 4 3 6 9 10 LAN Julio Urias 22:10
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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