Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/8/16

by
August 8, 2016
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Boom.
12:04
Joe Musgrove: How’d you get your writing start? I’m wondering for post-mlb work?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Whether or not that’s the real Joe Musgrove, I got my writing start arguing with WebTV/AOL Users on usenet, which was kind of the Twitter of the mid-90s.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: That also makes me sound really old. Writing really just takes an opinion and practice.
12:05
Matt: Hi Dan. I missed you.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Now that sounds like a lie.

12:05
Matt: Alex. Rodriguez.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Please ask your questions in the form of a question.
12:05
Josh Nelson: Will the Twins catch either the Royals or White Sox in the standings?
12:05
Dan Szymborski: No
12:06
Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s *possible* but picking up 8 games at this point of the season ain’t easy.
12:06
Bork: Hello, friend!
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Didn’t you die a few years ago?
12:06
Erik: Should Phillies fans be happy that Nola is hurt? That’s much better than him unexplainably underperforming, I would think. Also, does ZiPS know when underperformance is due to injury vs. just being bad? How does that affect projections?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: With such a small amount of data, ZiPS is more inclined to look at peripherals.
12:08
Matt: How does zips now feel about hedges, Renfroe, and Margot? Imagine Renfroe bb% doesn’t have them overly optimistic
12:09
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS certainly has a history of being a Margot fan. I don’t have the other two in front of me — live chat isn’t really a feasible time for running projections.
12:09
Jeremy: How has Baltimore been able to hold off the Jays and Red Sox for this long? I know they mash the ball but that rotation….
12:09
Dan Szymborski: These teams have their weakneesess too! I think the Blue Jays are slightly better than the O’s overall though.
12:10
Dervish: Who says no to a Madson-for-Puig swap?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: We’re talking Ryan, right? Or did I forget another Madson? The Dodgers ought not to do that.
12:10
Bork: The Blue Jays are leading the league in attendance. I thought baseball was America’s game? How long until Trump uses this to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: The exchange rate has flipped back in US favor in recent years, you need to express it in American fans.
12:11
Dervish: Who says no to a Madson/Puig trade? The A’s signed Madson for 3/30 when it looked like their bullpen fire was endless, but Ryan Dull is basically peak Sergio Romo.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Longer question, but I’m still not seeing the lure of Ryan Madson. Puig stinks right now, but there’s real upside.
12:11
CamdenWarehouse: Is this the real Dylan Bundy?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Could very well be. He didn’t fall down prospect rankings because his talent got worse, just his health.
12:12
Robot: Who plays Dan in fangraphs the movie?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I think Gary Oldman would capture and makes sense of the internal struggles that torment Dan Szymborski’s mind on a daily basis.
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Or maybe a fat guy.
12:13
Jasperdog: Liriano looked good in his start Friday; command much better. Is it possible that Martin could make that much of a difference? I know, SSS.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: It could, but I wouldn’t go crazy yet
12:14
MJ: Over the past 2 seasons, Devon Travis has accumulated 4.4 WAR over 478 PA, about a 6 WAR pace over a full season (650 PA). That includes a portion of that sample where he was injured (2015) and coming off a long injury layoff (first month of this year or so). What do you think his “true talent” level is? Obviously not a 6 WAR player but something in the 4-5 range seem reasonable?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Would probably still put it in the 3-4 range
12:14
Bork: Dickey’s Home/Away splits are insane this year. Think he retires at the end of the year or will he sign with another team?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: He’s a knuckler, he’s got like 10 years left
12:14
CamdenWarehouse: Does the MVP have to play for the team for which he was valuable? If not, I say Brandon Phillips for MVP!
12:14
Joe: Is there a place I can find historical zips preseason projections? I’m working on a project and looking to go back 4 or 5 years if possible.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Email me.
12:14
Dr. Frank Jobe: Are you excited as I am for the 2019 Yankees/Braves World Series?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Meh. As an O’s fan, I’m seriously annoyed that Yankee upper management decided to face reality at the deadline.
12:15
Alby: How and why do scouts miss on pitching prospects like Brian Matusz, Mark Appel, Luke Hochevar, or for that matter Andrew Miller? These guys weren’t picked at the top of the first round because someone thought they’d be decent relievers someday. What do scouts see that doesn’t come true?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Pitchers are tricky.
12:16
Avi: Hello Dan. I was really impressed by Musgrove’s start yesterday, nearly matching Darvish. Does this mean that Houston might have found their #2 for the future?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I like Musgrove, but that’s a litlte too quickly.
12:16
Lee: Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod – Any/all of these guys gonna be on your ballot?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: All, but I’ll only get my ballot in time to actually vote for A-Rod.
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Assuming he’s on the ballot in 9 years, which I expect as he’ll beat 5% and I expect he’ll fall short of 75%
12:17
Funkhouser: Hey Dan! What are your thoughts on King Felix? I was always worried he’d have a steep decline because of all the innings he threw in his early 20’s, but it’s really depressing to see him struggle. Do you think it’s injury related or is a once great ace now just a good pitcher?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: A combination, but it’s a very real possibilyt that he’s just good now. That’s happened to lots of HoF pitchers in their 30s.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Robin Roberts had a 102 ERA+ in his 30s. Feller 104.
12:19
Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: What advise could A-rod impart upon the yankees to be worth his 28 million dollar salary as an advisor next year?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Well, none, but they have to pay him anyway. He’s just agreeing to help ’em out to keep them from fighting about the whole thing
12:19
Jack K.: Any concerns over polanco’s lingering shoulder soreness? Been available to pinch hit lately but wondering if you have concerns for rest of the season. Pirates could really use his bat back in the lineup
12:20
Dan Szymborski: The Pirates position has slipped enough that his health has to be the team’s priority, not the timeline of his return.
12:20
Gary: Can we take a moment to appreciate Andrew Benintendi’s outrageous projections?
12:20
JoshP: Will the Mets ever win 2 games in a row again??
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Somedya
12:20
Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: can you spell the last name of the Oakland A’s reliever named Mark R. without looking?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Rzepczynski. I could spell my name at 4, so I’m used to Polish names
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Separate it into R-zep and then czynski
12:21
Mike_C: The Rangers still Owe A-Rod about as much money going forward as the Yankees. Who regrets signing him the most?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: The contract was fine, really. The Rangers stunk because of their other contracts.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: They only owe him money because they got to defer a bunch at 2% interest.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit like the O’s complaining about paying Chris Davis $1.5 million in 2037 even though that was something they *wanted* to do.
12:24
CamdenWarehouse: Are you buying Sullivan’s argument that we shouldn’t have adjusted Harper’s baseline based on last years numbers as much as we did?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Recentism is difficult. He’s still falling short of projections which tend to be more sober
12:24
Matt: What are the odds of the Padres making the playoffs in 2034, assuming the world is still here?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: That kind of timeline, all the projections would be based on market size.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: (Small market teams can compete, but it’s still an advantage ot have money)
12:25
dgrussel: Are you shocked by Bundy’s success? How many innings do the O’s push him?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: No – he was supposed to be good
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like hard limits in a pennant race, but trying to be prudent were possible.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: I thought yesterday’s game, 5 innings should have been the *latest* they pull him, not after 6. The team was up 10-0 after 3
12:26
Bork: Dan so old his ICQ number is in the double digits
12:26
Dan Szymborski: 153167
12:26
A Friendly Hippo: Do the Red Sox make the playoffs? If so, what spot?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: I think Red Sox-O’s playin.
12:27
Slothrop: Are the Astros finished?
12:27
Dan Szymborski: Not finished, but the crust is turning golden.
12:27
Erik: When baseball returns to the Olympics, will the MLB allow players to play? Will players choose to play? Or will it be some scrappy amateur sideshow?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Baseball’s not stopping for 3 weeks in mid-summer for something few will watch.
12:28
Matt: Over/Under 5.5 MLB HRs for Aaron Judge in 2016?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Over
12:29
Guest: Bundy or Geurra ROS?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Bundy, though Guerra’s safer
12:29
Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: Which player would be the most crushing blow for a contender to lose to injury today?
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Manny Machado
12:29
Bork: If dying mean’s getting an office job and spending my lunch break doing thins like taking part in Fangraphs chats, I’ve been dead for years.
12:30
Mick D: How do you rank Scoresheet baseball and its approach to a baseball season? Does your opinion change if it is a 10 team league formed by friends?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t played enough to form an opinion
12:30
Bryan in Boise: So when do the owners stand up and take a level of responsibility for the steroid era? Do you see any Irony on the exact same date that Barry Bonds passed Hank Aaron on the all time HR list Alex Rodriguez announces his retirement from the Yankees
12:30
Dan Szymborski: The same time owners take responsibility for anything: When shit sticks to the moon.
12:30
greg: Is Jose Abreu a strong bounce back candidate for next year?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Moderately. His first season did casue him to be overrated.
12:31
Bryan in Boise: If Clayton Kershaw was forced to retire right now would he be a Hall of Fame pitcher?
12:31
Dan Szymborski: He’s essentially had the same peak as Koufax
12:31
Dan Szymborski: But he wouldn’t because the voters are obsessed wiht counting numbers
12:32
RC: Does Kyle Hendricks have a credible argument for the NL Cy Young?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Tough sell
12:32
Matt: Have you ever tried the “blow””grass”?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I’ve never had laced marijuana, as far as I know
12:33
RC: Your thoughts on the Cardinals playoff chances?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Still solid.
12:33
Ray: What % of questions actually get answered on here?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: 20%. I get a flood
12:34
Frank: MGL was arguing vociferously last week that there’s no such thing as s lefty masher, presumably because he finds righties tend to have narrow true talent splits. But preseason zips showed pretty big split for a guy like Brandon Guyer. Is there a disconnect there? Or is it explained by minor league performance and other data MGL’s work omitted?
12:34
Dan Szymborski: That’s not that crazy a split and rounded low-number of HRs can make splits look bigger than they actually are
12:35
Dan Szymborski: I do the splits for Diamond Mind, which won’t take a decimal
12:35
samuist: Best nation for start in Europa Universalis 4?
12:35
Dan Szymborski: I tend to look far out-of-the-way nations while leaerning mechanics
12:35
JP: Has the performance of the Rockies rookie class (Story, Gray, Anderson, Dahl) made it possible for them to contend in 2017?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: The Rockies have a very good farm system. The problem is that the team hasn’t shown much of an awareness about how to build a roster otherwise.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Stuff like refusing to get value for CarGo and Blackmon weakens their future teams.
12:36
Peter: Has Mike Zunino turned his career around, or is this a small sample size aberration?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Too soon, but a good sign
12:37
Baseball: Who are your picks for the NL Wild Card game?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Cardinals at the NL West loser
12:37
Rick C: Remember when you criticized the Braves for not taking flyers on the right players? Well, they’ve since turned Dario Alvarez, Lucas Harrell, and Hunter Cervenka into Travis Demeritte, Michael Mader, and Anfernee Seymour. Two guys not even in the org at the start of the season, plus a guy plucked out of Indy ball last year, turned into three top 30 prospects.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: It’s worked out very well.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: But those aren’t hte players I’m talking about
12:38
Dan Szymborski: My objection was spending money on *mediocre veterans* as flyers.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Where’s the Markakis return? The Francoeur return?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Those flyers were absolutely free.
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been on record as saying that when there’s no obvious candidate, random minor leaguers with at least a chance of doing something are good candidates.
12:39
Outta my way, Gyorkass: What Brewers currently on their top prospects list make the opening day roster next season?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Arcia certainly. Maybe Brinson. Hader?
12:40
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Why do you think the Astros could not overtake the Rangers before this big lead?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Because they stunk for a month and the difference between the Astros roster and Rangers roster was only briefly large enough to give them a window.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: And now Texas’s roster is better than it was in April
12:41
RC: Which young Cubs player not named Kris Bryant has the best career (Contreras, Russell, Baez, Schwarber)…
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Russell
12:41
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Does A-Rod still count against the Yankees payroll for luxury tax purposes next year?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I’m actually unsure.
12:41
Dan Szymborski: Id ont’ think it does, but I’m really not positive
12:41
Josh: Any chance the Twinkies actually demote Sano? Would there be any justifiable reason considering the circumstances?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Their odd thrashing about his defensive position
12:42
a-rod: will I sign with another team this year? next year? Will that team be the Marlins?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: No
12:42
Bryan in Boise: is this one of Brian Cashman’s greatest seasons as a GM? He looked like the biggest winner at the trade deadline
12:42
Dan Szymborski: It was arguably his Finest Moment.
12:42
The Kid: Gave up Syndergaard and Votto (have Miggy at 1B) for Villar and Kershaw (keep forever league). Did I make a mistake?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Given the reduced utility by having Cabrera, it’s still maybe, but not a *huge* one
12:43
TKDC: Could the Braves unload Markakis with only paying the rest of his 2016 salary?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Probably not, but crazy things have happened
12:43
BK: Delete your DAN
12:43
Dan Szymborski: then I’m John Szymborski and have no middle name.
12:44
Ray: Is Aaron Sanchez a top 3 starter in the AL next season? top 5?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I like Sanchez but that’s a little aggressive.
12:44
Scotty: Does Britton actually have a chance at the AL Cy Young? He is dominating in WPA for what it’s worth.
12:44
Dan Szymborski: He might – it’s one of the years where the big named AL guys aren’t having huge years. Problem is I don’t think he’s gotten the Crazy Closer press that seems to need to happen for a closer to get it these days
12:45
Matt: Is Adam Wainwright going to be a useful pitcher next season?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think so
12:45
Brian: Why so much disdain for him? Because he was a cheater? Because he came off aloof to the media? Or was it jealousy over that huge pile of money he probably sleeps on everynight?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Because he used steroids and seems to be a little awkward in his PR.
12:45
Bork: How many voters will not vote for A-Rod because of his scandals? How many will write holier-than-thou blog posts on why he doesn’t deserve it?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: Half. Most of that half that is employed.
12:46
Outta my way, Gyorkass: What beer occupies your fridge as of this chat?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Not a lot at the moment, a few remaining Boon Krieks and a couple Heavy Seas Double Cannons.
12:47
Mike_C: Is it possible for Pujols to be bad enough over the next 6 years to actually impact his Hall of Fame chances?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I doubt it, but it could happen.
12:48
Andrew: Bregman and Reed have BABIPs of .182 and .171, respectively. These guys will be fine, right?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Yes. It’s still April even if it’s july
12:48
Buck: Where do you set the odds that A-Rod attempts a comeback next year to reach 700?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: 20/1
12:48
Mike T.: Dan, bit of a stale question but you were busy last week. Did the ‘mystery team’ talk during the trade deadline seems as nauseating to you as me? Like, do actual people fall for that stuff?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I like the rumor stuff – keeps Twitter popping
12:48
Toki: If Arod were to not take the coaching assignment and sign with another team how does that work if he hits the milestones that were written into his Yankee’s deal?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I do not know. Since those aren’t standard clauses, it depends on the wording.
12:48
Anthony: Do you like Stroman or Jon Gray moving forward? Both are so unpredictable from week to week
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I like both, Gray a little more in real life, a little worse in fantasy
12:49
Avi: Is your nickname Scrabble too, Dan?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Zim
12:49
Matt: Can you think of a legitimate reason why Aaron Hicks is still playing baseball in NY?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: They keep paying him, so he figures he might as well keep showing up
12:49
njs: my parents had tickets to steppenwolf in chicago and i got to meet gary oldman after a play when i was in high school… nice guy.
12:49
Mike_C: Right now it feels like the Braves are really banking on Swanson and Albies to anchor a competitively line-up in 2018. How much trouble are they in if one or both of them bust?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Quite a bit, but I really like obth of ’em
12:49
R+L=J: This is the most excited I’ve been about being a Yankee fan in at least 5 years… After I typed that I’m realizing how snobby that sounds. Sorry.
12:49
Erik: Would you put the Yankees as a top 5 World Series favorite in 2019, or is it far too early to say that? Are there any other currently rebuilding teams who you’d confidently put as a playoff favorite 3 years down the road?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I probably would. Money, a roster that isn’t complete junk, and a terrific farm system are a good long-term comb
12:50
Lukas: Will Mike Trout’s career with the Angels be completely wasted by the rest of the team being mediocre?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: His career should be a long time
12:50
JD15: Apparently Kershaw started baseball activity again, do you think he will be back and dealing in September
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I think so
12:50
White Elephant: Who’s this Kyle Hendricks guy think he is anyway?
12:50
Ray: Safe to say Seager will win NL ROY but Naquin or Fulmer for AL?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I think Fulmer gets it
12:50
Murdoc: Baseball will be back at the Olympics in 2020. How high is your interest level in Olympic baseball?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Not very.
12:50
Bill: I’m sad Alex Rodriguez is ending his career like this. He’s one of the three best players I’ve ever seen, one of the 10-15 best players ever. As good as he is I still think people underrate him, or don’t appreciate his Greatness because of personal stuff.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: Lots of greats dont’ go out on their own terms. He has to wonder if walking away last winter would have been best
12:51
Steve: Who’s the AL Cy Young favorite at this point?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I think right now Hamels.
12:52
Da Bum: In terms of the past decade, where does this year’s Cubs team rank in overall talent? Obviously, may not win it all this season because it’s baseball but overall talent level isn’t affected by that.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had them 2nd of the last 7 years, behind the 2011 Yankees
12:52
WannabeBork: Sup bro?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Maybe some cereal – my stomach’s kinda sour today
12:52
Matt: Guerra is hurt I thought
12:52
Dan Szymborski: What timeframe are we talking about?
12:53
JD15: Wouldn’t it make sense for a bad team to sign ARod for the rest of the season as a 700 HR promotion? Minimal financial commitment for a potential boost in revenue (tickets and memorabilia).
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s happening
12:53
Mike_C: The MLB isn’t stopping for 3 weeks for the Olympics. But if Baseball could organize something with close to the same cultural footprint as the World Cup, would MLB be willing to stop for 3 weeks?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Only if it was under MLB’s control.
12:53
Dan Szymborski: So WBC or bust.
12:53
Tony Womack: LOL at “steroid era”… I’m not too up-to-date on all the info but were steroids invented in 1998? HAH
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Everybody knows that steroids were invented and discovered by every player between November 1992 and March of 1993.
12:54
Toki: What’s going on with the Padres and the trades? Are they becoming that shaddy used car dealer?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: They’re becoming smart or at least listening to Preller
12:54
Guest: is the world ready for an entire season of Edwin Diaz?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Wiht this presidential election, we need a hero that’s fresh from the fight
12:55
Bart: Since Brian McCann got thru waivers, what are the chances the Yankees trade him?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: 1 in 4 maybe
12:55
CubbieBlues: Baseball is coming to the olympics in 2020! Are major league players actually going to play?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Unemployed ones maybe
12:55
Josh: Is there anyway to find out which players have been placed on waivers?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Generally not public.
12:55
Stevey : Thoughts on the Liriano salary dump? Good move for Buccos?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: The dump was fine, but the giving of hte prospects was weak.
12:55
jon: A Rod’s contract does count for luxury tax. Same with Crawford and LAD.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Must’ve missed it – I went to bathroom mid-press conference
12:56
Erik: If you were an MLB GM, what areas would you be just as good as real GMs at? And what skills would you completely lack?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Analytics skills. Delegation of responsibility/leading a team
12:57
rotted tooth: friendly reminder but crystal pepsi returns today
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Yuck
12:57
Sirras: Is your first name John or Dan? Is this a Larry Jones situation?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Dan. And if I went by initials, I’d go by D.J. Szymborski, unlike that scurrilous roustabout J.D. Drew who doens’t know how initials work
12:58
JD15: Peak ARod or peak bonds. Who do you want on your team?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Gott atake sht ehsortstop
12:58
Bradley “Bogey” Betts: So, if you had to choose between Travis Shaw’s future with the Red Sox or Bryce Brentz, does the double Bs give Brentz the edge?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Alliteration is a tremendous asset, but still Shaw
12:59
Matt: Do you like lobster tacos
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I’m allergic to lobster
12:59
Morty: Thoughts on the 2017 Royals? I find it hard to believe next year the team is going to be 10-15 wins better and then the mass exodus of 2018 happens in the winter. If they are out of it come next July, then sell right? Or even entertain offers this winter for core guys?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I think the Royals are well past their apogee now.
12:59
Steve: As an Orioles fan, do you ever laugh at another fan complaining about the hard times of their team?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, especially Yankee fans
12:59
Ol Sea Capn: A-Rod is a douche who said douche things about Seattle on his way out of town. The North(west) never forgets. Let him enter the Hall with a NY on his cap. It will feel appropriate and feed into the stereotypes of him and NYC. My question is … in Overwatch why is Lucio’s hometown the only made up city? Its weird. And when do I get Roadhog’s?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: It is the future so there could be new cities
1:00
Colt Holt: Senzel has really caught fire in Dayton. Could he find his way to the top of the Reds prospects after the season?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Certainly possible, depending on who loses their rookie status
1:00
Duke: The RoS in-season ZiPS projections are a bit less complicated than the pre-season ones right? Not that we shouldn’t take trust in them, but the RoS projections could be different than the upcoming offseason projections?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Yes. They have to be simpler or I’d have to have a PC running 24 hours a day to get the data for Davey Apples.
1:01
Invader Szym: A’s player traded this month is:
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Josh Reddick!
1:01
Earl: Do you think Wilson Ramos will be in top 3 of MVP race? Crazy given how crappy he was last year.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: No
1:02
Homer: Am I the only one who thinks reds got fleeced? In all reality,Herrera will never be as good as Bruce is now, plus Bruce comes with 1.5 years of control and a probable(?) QO.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Bruce isn’t that good now.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: And he’s coming off two wretched seasons, even with some injury allowance
1:02
@RationalMLBFan: According to FanGraphs, in 2016 Ryan Howard’s offense is rated -10.9 and his defense is rated -6.7. Does this mean that he actually has had more (i.e., less negative) value as a defensive replacement than a hitter?!?!?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Kinda. It’s hard to be as bad at first base as Ryan Howard is at hitting
1:03
Bork: Are you getting No Man’s Sky tomorrow?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:03
Dan Szymborski: Oops, that was for the upcoming lightning round
1:03
Andrew: This has probably been covered, but doesn’t bullpen deployment affect run differential? You’re likely to use your best during tight games, and your worst during blowouts (winning or losing).
1:03
Dan Szymborski: It makes sense on the surface, but bullpen quality actually has very low correlation with record in close games.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: The volatility dwarfs the effect
1:03
Bork: Oakland A’s suspended a coach for having a hidden camera in the workout room. Good thing they haven’t found the hidden camera in the opposing team’s dressing room yet, Oakland can still see what a winning team looks like!
1:04
Matt: Have you ever thought about the fact that your initials imply you should be a disc jockey? DJ Dan Zim.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Someone I know calls me DJ Szyzzle.
1:04
CamdenWarehouse: I never knew that Drew was David Jonathan and not, you know, something that was J.D. WTF?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s as bad as J.A. Happ pronouncing his initials.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: If I was D.J. Szymborski I wouldn’t go by “Duj Szymborski”
1:05
Rick Hahn: Should I be canned for the James Shields acquisition? And how many more MLB starts does he makes? IP?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Was a reaosnable risk to take
1:05
Murdoc: If you got a call from a minor league team looking for a manager and they said YOU ARE OUR FIRST CHOICE DAN, how seriously would you consider it?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Really depends on the terms. I’d have to pause my journalism career and drastically change my lifestyle
1:05
The Decadent Moose:

1:05
Chuncey Wiggins: DJ “Too Dope” Symborski
1:05
Dan Szymborski: OK, Lightning Round Time.
1:06
Dan Szymborski: You guys know the rules. GO
1:06
Robot: Is it possible for me to love?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:06
Novice: Why does Hearthstone match me up with players with decks full of legendary and epic cards while I only have commons and a couple of rares?? grrrrrrrr
1:06
Dan Szymborski: The matchups are made by their version of Elo, not card quality typically. And at this point, lots of people have most of the classic set.
1:06
Ben Brode: You excited for Priest to be back? Purify is going to be meta defining!
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Lies.
1:06
jon: T/F: Donald J Trump is the worst Baby Boomer born in the US?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure there’s a baby boomer in jail for eating babies
1:06
Mark: I get people being mad about ‘Purify’, but I think players forget how frustrating it is to play against the priest class. If priest were tier one, no one would play Hearthstone.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Ever play against Miracle Rogue or Freeze Mage during their heydays?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Priest pays a hefty early-game price for it’s late-game annoyance
1:07
Dan Szymborski: You can always out-tempo Priest
1:07
Ol Sea Capn: I just moved and the t.v.s haven’t arrived at the new place. 2 weeks and i’m on Overwatch withdrawls. Please help… can you just transcribe a match for me? thx.
1:08
Dan Szymborski: You’re in Numbani. Your team has 3 Reapers and 2 Anas. They attack the control point black ninja style, and get mowed down by two Torbjörns and nobody wants to switch heroes to deal with them. Time runs out as you mute somebody blasting horrible nu-metal through their microphone.
1:08
Chuncey Wiggins: Can you use ZIPS to help with the Sombra Overwatch search?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: Heh, no
1:08
j6takish: I am replaying FF10 as an adult. Tidus hates his father for basically no reason
1:09
Dan Szymborski: Tidus was a little whiner
1:09
Dan Szymborski: At the end I was like BOOM – enjoy non-existence.
1:09
Julio Pepper: That’s what Amazon EC2 is for! Run that shit in the cloud.
1:09
BritishCub: how are you gonna go about your first few hours on no man’s sky?…i’m shooting off into isolation:P
1:09
Dan Szymborski: No idea yet!
1:09
johnforthegiants: Do you think it’s possible for me to be less of a dick?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure.
1:09
CamdenWarehouse: Trump can’t actually be elected, can he?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: It’s feasible, but less than 50/50
1:10
Chuncey Wiggins: Your phone rings and you answer to hear only loud breathing…which baseball player has called?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Kemp
1:10
KOK: Are you still playing any TF2?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Not really, Overwatch scratches that itch.
1:10
j6takish: Do you remember when original nax launched with the ateish quest? You had kill KT, cthun and collect like 40 shards. Didn’t BC launch like 3 months later? Did anyone ever finish that quest?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Not sure, I didn’t actually play that one at the time
1:10
Mike: What’s the weirdest human food your cats will eat?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Galileo loves peas
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Reagan loves basil
1:11
Matt: If the moon was a piece of pizza, would ya eat it? I know I would.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Why would you want pizza made up of rock and dust?
1:11
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you rather spend 5 minutes on a trampoline or 10 minutes on a slide?
1:11
Dan Szymborski: 10 minutes on a slide if it’s a loopy around slide. If it’s a straight down slide, trampoline
1:12
Bork: FF10 is like someone took a weird final fantasy fanfic and made it a game.
1:12
Aaron: I played WoW all the way through vanilla 10 years ago, so I have a good understanding of all the original classes. Am thinking of getting into Hearthstone. What sort of time/money commitment does this game take to be decent?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: A lot of time or $200. For MTG palyers, t hat’s still about nothing.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Fact is at this point, people have m ost of the classic set.
1:12
BritishCub: did you give i am setsuna a go? i enjoyed the nostalgia you got even if it was a new game
1:12
Dan Szymborski: It’s on my list but I haven’t jumped in yet
1:12
YES: Favorite video game of all time?
1:12
Dan Szymborski: FFVI
1:12
Bork: I can’t wait to play No Man’s Sky and ruin someone’s immersion by naming a planet DickButt
1:13
Chuncey Wiggins: You are tasked with designing a playground for adults, what do you put at the end of the slide?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Beer
1:13
Dan Szymborski: I’ll even get dressed if it involves beer
1:13
KOK: with you 100% on Overwatch. actually has me considering building a new PC to play on…stuck with ps4 for the time being – who is your most played hero?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: hmm, let’s actually check
1:13
Avi: Did you ever play Civilization Dan?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I got an EGA monitor for Christmas just so I could play it
1:13
Dan Szymborski: Before that I had to play it at my friend Alan’s house
1:14
Dan Szymborski: I had a CGA monitor, but Civ didn’t run on one
1:14
Dan Szymborski: And I think trying to play that in a black/white/pink/cyan world would have been ugly
1:15
Dan Szymborski: My most played characters since launch are Pharah, Junkrat, Soldier 76, and Lúcio
1:15
Dan Szymborski: I don’t remember what my distro was in closed beta.
1:15
Matt: I think that whoever the next president is should have their first move be outlawing all straws that are not crazy straws. The fact that people use straws that don’t allow them to watch their liquid take a fun path from container to mouth is offensive.
1:15
Dan Szymborski: STOP SANE STRAWS
1:15
Gary: Good man, that Alan.
1:16
Dan Szymborski:

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Alan’s the one that isn’t me. We were at Schalfly beer festival. I had tried all the beer.
1:17
Person: Civ IV or Civ V? And how does Civ VI look?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: IV by a bit. Looking at VI, but too soon to tell
1:17
Roadhog: Are you a one-man apocalypse?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: No
1:17
Matt: Did you mom pay kids to hang out with you? Every one’s parents did that, right?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Heh
1:17
Uther: What offbeat Olympic sport would you like to medal in?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: rhythmic gymnastics
1:18
Dan Szymborski: becuase it’d be funny to see a fat dude on the podium
1:18
j6takish: do you remember not using wakka/rikku because they sucked and then finding out you had to walk through a puddle of water at some point late in the game and realize you were forced to use 2 characters that were level 12 and getting your shit pushed in because of it?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Pretty muchy
1:18
Cobs: Who would Harambe choose for President?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Bananas
1:18
The Decadent Moose: Do you watch much television? Favorite show outside of It’s Always Sunny?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I don’t really watch all that much.
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Sports and video games take up most of my screen time
1:18
Dan Szymborski: Would’ve been Parks&Rec if we can still count it
1:19
Matt: I never realized how confusing it is to look at the word “civ” with roman numerals next to it.
1:19
Avi: I still miss the simplicity of Civ III, even though Civ IV was awesome.
1:19
BritishCub: when you were a kid were you ever forced to play outside as a punishment?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: No, I played outside a lot actually
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Remember, there was no good internet at the time
1:19
Guest: So, are you voting for the criminal or the sociopath this election?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Probably Gary Johnson. Let the rest of the America choose their destroyer in Gozer’s reckoning.
1:19
Matt: I’m going to start saying “wakka wakka” like Fozzy Bear. It’s gonna catch on. You want in on the ground floor?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: All you buddy
1:20
Avi: I would ask if you are planning to get Destiny Rise of Iron but you don’t strike me as someone who enjoys that,
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t played any Destiny because it is not on PC.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I have *zero* desire to play any FPS that’s not on PC
1:20
kevinthecomic: Deeeeeeeej!!!!!
1:20
Dan Szymborski: CAUGHT
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!
1:20
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: And my latest piece, on A-Rod, is up on ESPN
1:21
Dan Szymborski: http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/17236350/once-track-surpass-major-milestones-alex-rodriguez-ran-gas
1:21
Dan Szymborski: If you don’t read it, my editor won’t give me my cat back.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Now go away, you’ve already wasted 80 minutes of your precious life minutes.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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