Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York AL | 13:05 ET
Price (36.2 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. Eovaldi (29.2 IP, 80 xFIP-)
For a number years — like when he was a Dodgers prospect and then when he was a starter for Miami and then during his first season with the Yankees, as well — for a number of years it’s seemed as though Nathan Eovaldi should prevent runs harder. There’s a strong correlation between arm speed and success, and Eovaldi possess the former in great volume. Regard: of the 316 pitchers to have recorded 100-plus innings as a starter since 2011 (when he debuted), Eovaldi has produced the fourth-highest average fastball velocity. Ahead of him? Only Noah Syndergaard, Yordano Ventura, and Gerrit Cole — in that order. Why this is relevant now is because Eolvadi, during his first five starts, has posted a strikeout rate over seven points greater than his career average. The reason, in no small part: a splitter which he’s emmploying more often — and with which he’s recording more whiffs — than ever.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Chicago NL | 14:20 ET
Scherzer (38.0 IP, 91 xFIP-) vs. Lackey (33.1 IP, 85 xFIP-)
It represents a classic case of “stating the obvious” to note how this game features, in the Cubs, probably the best major-league team in the majors, and also, in the Nationals, something not much worse than the best major-league team in the majors. Likewise, observing that Max Scherzer is an elite pitcher recalls for many of us that gentleman who pointed at the sky and made certain remarks on the subject of its blue-ness. Is John Lackey elite? Perhaps not. But his name is a byword for competence. In short, this game offers quality all around — plus also a version of Tommy La Stella who’s produced seven extra-base hits in fewer than 50 plate appearances.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Chicago NL | 20:05 ET
Ross (22.2 IP, 105 xFIP-) vs. Hendricks (23.0 IP, 73 xFIP-)
Of the 136 starters to have recorded 20-plus innings so far this year, only five have recorded a lower average fastball velocity than Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks. Two of those five are knuckleballers. Another is Jered Weaver, whose fastball is so slow… How slow is it?… It’s so slow, one could author a slim collection of poorly conceived and executed jokes just like this one about it… And yet, what one finds is — despite Hendricks’ relative dearth of arm speed — is an equal and opposite amount of success. He induces grounders. He hardly walks anyone. He’s posted a league-average strikeout rate. Today, he also starts for the Cubs.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Miami | 19:10 ET
de la Rosa (23.2 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Fernandez (28.2 IP, 71 xFIP-)
One comment regarding this game is that the merits of Miami right-hander Jose Fernandez are conspicuous. He’s young, throws hard, and possesses a refulgent light inside him that bathes everyone around. These truths are self-evident and achingly self-evident. Another comment regarding this game is that Rubby de la Rosa has produced consecutive brilliant starts, recording a 16:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio — and conceding just a single total run — in 13.0 total innings versus Pittsburgh and then St. Louis. One difference he’s exhibited: almost completely abandoning his (well-regarded) changeup while throwing more sliders than ever.

Here’s video footage depicting three of those sliders from his most recent start:

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Philadelphia at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
Nola (33.0 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. Wacha (29.1 IP, 93 xFIP-)
Despite their 15-11 record, the most likely outcome for the 2016 iteration of the Phillies remains the very dim one intimated by this site’s preseason projections. The club’s BaseRuns record — which metric strips out sequencing — is the fifth-worst in the majors. The team’s hitters, meanwhile, have produced the second-worst collective WAR. They possess a 0.1% probability of qualifying for the postseason. What oughtn’t be ignored, however, is the starting rotation. As a group, they’ve recorded the league’s highest strikeout rate and fifth-best collective WAR. Entirely central to that effort has been right-hander Aaron Nola. Despite having produced an average fastball velocity of just 90.0 mph, Nola has nevertheless parlayed impressive command and largely unhittable curveball into one of the league’s best pitching lines.

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Episode 650
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he examines the unprecedented talent among baseball’s young players; Dexter Fowler, Andrew McCutchen, and the the influence of data on outfield positioning; and, finally, the science of deterrence as it pertains to Dee Gordon and PED suspensions.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

A Brief Introduction
As the title indicates flawlessly, what this post represents is the first edition of NERD game scores for the 2016 season. As the brief italicized paragraph above indicates, NERD scores themselves represent “an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.”

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Episode 649
August Fagerstrom certainly has written for MLB.com — and, almost just as certainly, does write currently for FanGraphs, by which site he’s employed as some manner of editor. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which he discusses the relationship between Oakland left-hander Rich Hill and the Fibonacci spiral, Boston knuckleballer Steven Wright and that moment when information becomes an impediment for major leaguers, among other sundry topics.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

Read the rest of this entry »