NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Philadelphia at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
Nola (33.0 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. Wacha (29.1 IP, 93 xFIP-)
Despite their 15-11 record, the most likely outcome for the 2016 iteration of the Phillies remains the very dim one intimated by this site’s preseason projections. The club’s BaseRuns record — which metric strips out sequencing — is the fifth-worst in the majors. The team’s hitters, meanwhile, have produced the second-worst collective WAR. They possess a 0.1% probability of qualifying for the postseason. What oughtn’t be ignored, however, is the starting rotation. As a group, they’ve recorded the league’s highest strikeout rate and fifth-best collective WAR. Entirely central to that effort has been right-hander Aaron Nola. Despite having produced an average fastball velocity of just 90.0 mph, Nola has nevertheless parlayed impressive command and largely unhittable curveball into one of the league’s best pitching lines.

Three Other Brief Notes
Very Compelling Guerra to Start for Milwaukee
The purpose of this brief entry is to announce that right-hander Junior Guerra — formerly of the Italian and Spanish baseball leagues, and more recently of the Chicago White Sox system — is scheduled to start for Milwaukee against the Angels at 20:10 ET. Guerra has been a fixture among the Fringe Five, a weekly exercise in which the author attempts to identify and/or monitor the league’s most compelling fringe prospects.

Broadcaster Rankings
Recently, the present author began the process of process of reproducing the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. Cast ballots for television broadcasts here; for radio broadcasts, here.

Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game hadn’t been announced as of press time, but can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text if and when it becomes available.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

NERD Scores for May 3, 2016

Away		SP	TM	GM	TM	SP		Home	Time
Justin Verlander	DET	5	5	5	6	5	CLE	Josh Tomlin	18:10
Jake Arrieta	CHN	8	9	7	5	5	PIT	Jon Niese	19:05
Luis Severino	NYA	10	5	6	5	4	BAL	Chris Tillman	19:05
Martin Perez	TEX	3	3	3	5	3	TOR	Marco Estrada	19:07
Patrick Corbin	AZ	4	8	5	6	4	MIA	Justin Nicolino*	19:10
Matt Wisler	ATL	4	0	5	6	7	NYN	Matt Harvey	19:10
Scott Kazmir	LAN	5	4	6	6	9	TB	Matt Moore	19:10
Jeff Samardzija	SF	5	5	3	3	0	CIN	Jon Moscot	19:10
Steven Wright	BOS	5	6	6	5	6	CHA	Jose Quintana	20:10
Nicholas Tropeano	LAA	4	2	6	5	10	MIL	Junior Guerra*	20:10
Alex Meyer*	MIN	9	6	6	6	4	HOU	Collin McHugh	20:10
Aaron Nola	PHI	10	3	7	7	7	STL	Michael Wacha	20:15
Tanner Roark	WAS	5	5	5	4	5	KC	Chris Young	20:15
Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	3	5	3	4	3	OAK	Sonny Gray	22:05
Eddie Butler*	COL	6	6	5	5	4	SD	Andrew Cashner	22:10

SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.