Author Archive

NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Ross (45.0 IP, 66 xFIP-) vs. Greinke (152.1 IP, 83 xFIP-)
Both Washington rookie Joe Ross and also San Diego right-hander Tyson Ross, who are brothers, feature sliders which currently sit within the league’s top ten by linear-weight runs among all starters — a notable accomplishment, especially, in the case of the former Ross, who’s recorded fewer than 50 major-league innings this season. Were the author capable of it, he would craft a long-form narrative piece exploring the implications of a family genetically predisposed to mastering this one pitch, considering both the practical kinetic explanations and also the more profound, nearly mystical, fraternal ones. Lacking both of skill and also tolerance for the sort of precision required by such an endeavor, however, what I’ve done instead is merely to produce this paragraph which invokes the possibility of such a piece. Less substantial, that, but also much less tedious for everyone involved.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron on Dombrowski and All GMs

Episode 584
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses the release of general manager Dave Dombrowski from his contract with the Detroit Tigers, Dombrowski’s strengths and weaknesses, and what Dombrowski’s career teaches us about other GMs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/10/15

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, August 10, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Gonzalez (115.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Anderson (123.2 IP, 90 xFIP-)
It has come to the author’s attention that, at some point between last Sunday (when I began my week’s vacation) and this morning, Dodgers catching prospect Austin Barnes was optioned back to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Were I susceptible to hyperbole, I might suggest that this is the worst thing to happen ever. Recognizing, however, that the use of the superlative more often than not represents an assault on the imagination, I’ll merely suggest that it would have been a pleasure to observe Barnes in another major-league game. Nevertheless, this encounter offers other means of pleasure — in particular, by featuring two clubs for whom the result is totally relevant to their odds of reaching the postseason.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores: Big Ongoing New York Area Drama Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 20:08 ET
Zimmermann (128.2 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (86.2 IP, 80 xFIP-)
As he’s done in each of the two previous editions of this same daily exercise, what the author has done in this edition of it is to alter indiscriminately the NERD score of a game between playoff-contending division rivals to better reflect the consequences of that game’s result — and the opportunity for drama facilitated by those consequences. The division rivals in question are Washington and New York’s National League club, and I’ve taken the liberty of increasing the haphazardly derived score of their game from 7 to 8, thus creating a tie between that particular encounter and the one scheduled between the Angels and Dodgers (itself a promising matchup).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores: New York Area Baseball Contretemps

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Ross (32.2 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (127.1 IP, 79 xFIP-)
Were the author better at anything, he would integrate into the haphazardly derived NERD algorithm some manner of variable to account for those games in which division rivals — both possessing some non-negligible chance of winning that same division — face each other. I am not better at anything, however, and so what I’ve done instead is to alter indiscriminately the NERD score for this Washington and New York rencontre. Unaltered, it receives a score of 8 — or actually just one point fewer than the Angels-Dodgers game. For those readers, meanwhile, who count themselves among the nerd orthodoxy and are prepared to abide by whatever game the haphazardly derived algorithm dictates, then observing a couple hours of Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout oughtn’t prove very difficult.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL.

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NERD Game Scores: Johnny Cueto Referendum Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Cueto (130.2 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Hutchison (108.0 IP, 100 xFIP-)
In reality, the present game receives a NERD score of 7 — which is to say, tied with a pair of other games on tonight’s schedule and actually a point behind the Angels-Dodgers game featuring Clayton Kershaw. Unaccounted for by the metric’s haphazardly derived algorithm, however, is how Johnny Cueto’s start for Kansas City this evening represents his debut for that club following a noteworthy deadline trade. In reality, projecting Cueto’s performance over the course of the season is a matter largely of weighting and combining data from his past performances — of which sort of mathematical alchemy Steamer and ZiPS are the product. Owing to how the dumb human mind works, however, this start — for better or worse — will function as a referendum on the wisdom of Dayton Moore’s decision to acquire Cueto at all. (Until Cueto’s next start, at least, at which point the process will repeat itself.) Accordingly, what the author has done is to alter indiscriminately the game score for this contest — to alter it sufficiently such that it becomes the most highly rated game.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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NERD Game Scores: A Not-Family Reunion in Houston Tonight

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Houston | 20:10 ET
Shoemaker (97.0 IP, 101 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (116.2 IP, 93 xFIP-)
Following consecutive victories over the Anaheimers, the Houstonians now possess both a one-game lead over and also slightly better odds of winning the division than those same Angels. The two clubs meet once again this evening — and unlike a family reunion, the reunion of the Angels and Astros tonight at Minute Maid Park will feature neither (a) baleful career advice from your uncle who had four whiskies already nor (b) sexually confusing encounters with your obviously attractive second cousin Donna. Also, the combination of Matt Shoemaker and Scott Kazmir holds some promise.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Note: this edition of the Five contains new restrictions regarding eligibility for inclusion. Any player is excluded from eligibility whose name has appeared among the midseason prospect lists of Baseball America, Keith Law, or John Sickels.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) absent from the midseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Keith Law, and John Sickels, and also (c) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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NERD Game Scores: An Astros-Angels Spiritual Exercise

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Houston | 20:10 ET
Richards (116.1 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. McCullers (69.1 IP, 90 xFIP-)
With Houston’s 10-5 victory over Anaheim last night, the two clubs are now tied for the AL West lead and possess mostly similar odds of winning the division. Tonight’s game features an even more robust pitching matchup in Richards and McCullers, each of whom has produced an average fastball velocity greater than 94 mph this season. The appeal of the contest is such that one would like time to pass at a more rapid rate than usual between now and 8pm ET — and return to a normal speed just moments before first pitch. One would like a lot of things, however, which will never obviously materialize. Perhaps today is best utilized becoming acquainted with that difficult truth.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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