Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Copeland (10.0 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Harvey (79.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
Recent research by the author in advance of an August trip to Montreal reveals that a U.S. citizen is permitted to remain in Canada as a tourist without a visa for up to 180 days, or roughly six months. Six months, one notes, is also almost the precise length of the major-league baseball season. In theory, then, one could take up residence in Toronto for the duration of the Blue Jays’ entire season and then return to the States upon the completion of same. Why anyone would engage in such behavior isn’t immediately clear. That it’s permitted legally, however — provided the traveler possesses no criminal record — is manifestly true. Moreover, one having relocated to Toronto this past April would have had the opportunity, thus far, to observe more closely the top park-adjusted offense in the majors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 573
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition, not unlike a small child taking a particularly soapy bath, he attempts to burst every bubble.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Chicago NL | 20:05 ET
Bauer (74.0, 107 xFIP-) vs. Arrieta (77.0 IP, 69 xFIP-)
Chicago and Cleveland, between them, have debuted four noteworthy young players this season — of which three are famous and one is less famous. Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Francisco Lindor were ranked 1st, 3rd, and 14th, respectively, among all prospects by Kiley McDaniel this offseason. The former two have produced roughly four wins in roughly 400 plate appearances for the Cubs; Lindor, for his part, recorded his first major-league appearance this past weekend. Omitted from McDaniel’s preseason top-200 list (as well as every other preseason-type of list), but noteworthy nonetheless, is third baseman Giovanny Urshela. The 23-year-old Urshela lacks the tools of the three aforementioned players, but has exhibited average power and above-average contact skills as a minor leaguer — in addition to possessing a strong defensive reputation. He’s probably not the reason one ought to watch this game between the Cubs and Indians tonight. That said, in the event that one is consuming this game among a crowd of friends or even awkward acquaintances, one is now equipped to bore his companions with certain passing comments about Giovanny Urshela.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 572
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses some early-round selections in baseball’s amateur draft, the particular futures of some collegiate second baseman, and also baseball-player makeup versus regular-person makeup.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 1 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Houston | 14:10 ET
Elias (58.0 IP, 108 xFIP-) vs. McCullers (31.0 IP, 71 xFIP-)
While the major-league debuts of Byron Buxton and Francisco Lindor are entirely notable, it’s also true that watching an entire game merely to the end of observing a single position player ultimately provides a poor return on one’s leisure investment. Consider: a single batter records, on average, only four or five plate appearances per game. Defensively, a shortstop (like Lindor) makes about four or five plays per game, while a center fielder (such as Buxton) makes fewer than three usually. As such, neither Buxton nor Lindor are likely to feature prominently in more than 10 of the roughly 75 total plate appearances that compose a nine-inning contest — less than 15% of the whole event, in other words. What reason dictates, instead, is that the viewer ought to watch the young and talented Lance McCullers pitch for the young and talented Houston Astros while monitoring the Cleveland and Minnesota games for the relevant at-bats within them.

This is merely one application of what might or might not be called hedonic arithmetic.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Detroit | 16:08 ET
Carrasco (68.1 IP, 72 xFIP-) vs. Verlander (Season Debut)
This game marks the return of Justin Verlander from a triceps injury that’s prevented him from appearing over the first two-and-a-half months of the season. Of some interest is what he’s able to exhibit by way of arm speed. After recording an average fastball velocity of 94.3 mph in 2012, he produced a figure exactly 1 mph less than that in 2013 and then another 1 mph less than that in 2014. His capacity to prevent runs has declined at a corresponding rate. Regard, by way of example, his xFIP- marks over each of the last three seasons, all in samples of 200-plus innings: 80, 92, 111. Decidedly upward, is the trend one identifies. During his second rehab start with Triple-A Toledo, Verlander’s fastball topped out at 94 mph while sitting in the low-90s, according to MLive.com’s Brendan Savage — figures which suggest that he’s returned, probably, to the 2014 edition of himself, but also probably not to the more dominant version which preceded it. In conclusion, all life is like a fleeting shadow and/or passing mist.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Salazar (61.2 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Price (83.1 IP, 96 xFIP-)
The reader might regard it as a sort of minor injustice — or at least passing curiosity — that accomplished and conspicuously talented Detroit left-hander David Price receives merely an average rating here (i.e. NERD score of 5) by the author’s fallible methodology for determining the aesthetic value of, in this case, pitchers. Indeed, closer examination of the matter reveals that Price has actually recorded an expected FIP, swinging-strike rate, overall strike rate, and average fastball velocity all superior to the league-average starter’s mark — by a full standard deviation, in the three latter cases. Peculiar to Price, however, is the pace at which he works: on average, he’s recorded 25.7 seconds between pitches, the absolutely highest figure among qualifiers. To place that figure into context, consider the bag of Newman’s Own microwave popcorn currently residing in the author’s cabinet. On average, such a comestible requires roughly three minutes to prepare. Over such an interval, Price would throw almost exactly seven pitches. An average starter, meanwhile, would be halfway to throwing his ninth pitch. As for Mark Buehrle, given his average pace of 16.0 seconds, when that Newman’s Own popcorn is ready, he would just have received the ball back from the catcher after having delivered his 11th pitch.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Cleveland | 12:10 ET
Happ (65.1 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Marcum (26.0 IP, 103 xFIP-)
As bearded philosopher-king Owen Watson demonstrated recently in the electronic pages, Cleveland’s rotation this season is producing strikeouts at an historical rate — even after adjusting for how the whole league is already producing strikeouts at an historical rate. Curiously, that’s not the immediate appeal of this game. Indeed, right-hander Shaun Marcum’s 24.1% strikeout rate as a starter does compare favorably to the league as whole, but ranks only fifth among starters on the club. The appeal, rather — according to the dubious methodology used by the author — lies in Cleveland’s batting corps, a group that has hit and run the bases at levels roughly one and two standard deviations, respectively, above the league average. Moreover, one finds that they control the strike zone excellently, having produced the league’s lowest collective swing rate at pitches out of the zone, but the third-highest rate of contact overall.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

Read the rest of this entry »