Junichi Tazawa is satisfied with his current role. Sort of. The 28-year-old set-up specialist would rather start or close, but he’s comforted by the knowledge that outs in the seventh and eighth innings can be every bit as valuable as outs in the ninth. And he gets a lot of them. Tazawa made 71 appearances for the Red Sox this season and logged a 2.86 ERA over 63 innings.

His job isn’t simple. Along with frequently facing high-leverage situations, he doesn’t have one designated inning. Tazawa pitched in the eighth inning 45 times this year, and 16 times in the seventh. He also made appearances in the sixth, the ninth, and in extra frames.

Further impacting Tazawa’s preparation has been his usage relative to the scoreboard. He entered 29 games with the Red Sox trailing. On 28 occasions he entered with a lead.

“My job doesn’t really depend on whether we’re winning or losing,” acknowledged Tazawa, through translator C.J. Matsumoto. “There is the possibility I will get into either situation, so I’m looking at the pitch count and trying to get my blood flow going. I need to be able to step right in there.”

One of the questions I asked Tazawa at season’s end was whether his ready-at-any-time role is more challenging mentally or physically. Read the rest of this entry »

Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey is looking forward to next year. He should be. Erstwhile “ace” – a term Hickey hates, BTW – David Price is no longer part of the equation, but an enviable array of pitchers are. Better still, all of next year’s projected starters are heading into their primes. The sextet of Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly will be between the ages of 25 and 27 on opening day.

The 2014 campaign offered a number of challenges. Moore’s season-ending elbow injury in April was the biggest blow, while Hellickson scuffled mightily after a mid-season return from an elbow injury of his own. Cobb missed six weeks with a strained oblique. Archer and Odorizzi had good years but suffered growing pains along the way. As for Smyly, he sparkled after coming over from Detroit in the trade-deadline deal for Price.

Hickey broke down the 2014 progress of his starting staff following the conclusion of the regular season.

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Hickey on Odorizzi’s emergence: “I think the greatest example [of a Rays pitcher making adjustments] would be what happened with Odorizzi this year. He was fastball, curveball, slider, chanegeup, with not a very good changeup. He was very conventional. Then he started to experiment with the pitch Alex Cobb was throwing, which is kind of a hybrid changeup/split finger.

“It started in spring training with those two playing catch and kind of critiquing it. Coming into the season, it wasn’t a huge weapon for [Odorizzi] and he didn’t pitch particularly well for probably the first eight outings or so. Then, all of a sudden, he began to make some transformations. If you want to say he added that pitch, I guess you could say he added that pitch. It really started to come together for him.

“He also started tweaking his slider into a cutter when he wanted to, versus just a slider. So, we’re talking about two pretty big adjustments for a first-year guy who struggled at the beginning. At that point, most guys are just trying to keep their heads above water. He was experimenting and tnkering with new pitches.” Read the rest of this entry »

There were 46,912 fans at Oriole Park at Camden Yards today/tonight. Between print, radio and TV, there were just over 800 credentialed media. As for the 31 players who performed on the field, they put on another good show. This game wasn’t as wild and wacky as the one that ended just before one o’clock this morning, but it was still a doozy – a doozy that last 4 hours and 17 minutes. The Royals scored twice in the ninth inning on a double by Alcides Escobar and a single by Lorenzo Cain to win 6-4.

As usual, I won’t write much here about what you just saw on TV. What I will do is supply some color in the form of post-game quotes and fold this over into my weekly Sunday Notes column.

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Mike Moustakas on homering for the third consecutive game and executing a sacrifice bunt in the ninth inning: “That’s how we’re playing the game right now. Any way we’re going to score runs, we’re going to score. If that means sac bunting or hit-and-running – anything to generate runs – we’re fine with it. But I’m seeing the ball good right now. I’m getting good pitches to hit and I’m not missing them.”

Lorenzo Cain on making a spectacular diving catch in right-center field: “Zone in and make the play. I don’t think about messing up. I’m not a guy who is scared or fearful about making a mistake. I’m willing to lay out and do whatever it takes to make a play. I’m going to continue to play that way. I’ve played that way my entire life.”

Ned Yost on the Royals benefiting from some soft hits: “That’s good hitting, yeah. I’ll take bloop hits all day long. They get bloop hits, too. They’re a little bit aggravating.”

Buck Showalter on decision-making and being down two games to none: “I could go over about a hundred decisions Ned and I have to make, and the players, more importantly, have to make. It can be kind of maddening if you let it, but you trust your instincts and know your guys. You’ve got to win four games. You’ve got to keep from losing more than three. That’s obviously oversimplifying it.”

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A lot has been written about Buck Showalter in recent weeks, and deservedly so. The quotable manager has achieved cult status in Baltimore, and if he leads the Orioles to the promised land – a more daunting task than it was 24 hours ago – Earl Weaver might eventually have company in Camden Yards statue land.

Less has been written about Ned Yost – at least in regard to positive print – so let’s spill some cyberspace ink on the much-maligned Royals skipper. After all, his holy-crap-they-might-win-it-all team is currently in the driver’s seat against Showalter’s squad in the ALCS.

Let’s start with some words from outfielder Lorenzo Cain, who has been setting the world on fire since I spoke with him at the outset of the series.

“I would say he was kind of conservative to start the season,” Cain told me. “Toward the end here he’s been a lot more aggressive, changing pitchers and making moves. He changed the lineup – one, two, three – and that’s definitely an aggressive move. You have to take risks in this game to be successful and that’s what he’s doing.

“Buck Showalter is a really good manager, but we have a really good manager as well. Managing and making moves is definitely going to come into play in this series, but as players we understand we have to get it done on the field. A manager can make moves, but at the end of the day, we have to go out there and perform.”

So far, Cain has held up his end of the bargain. He’s 6 for 8 with a pair of walks, and his defense in center field has been immaculate. Read the rest of this entry »

The story lines have been the same all week. The Orioles hit home runs and the Royals steal bases. Both teams have deep, lock-down bullpens. One manager is sly as a fox and the other is a tactical error waiting to happen. That pretty much covers it.

Actually, one other notable theme crept in: According to FanGraphs odds, the Royals came in with a 63 percent chance of winning the ALCS. Meanwhile, the betting line in Las Vegas favored the Orioles. Baltimore reliever Darren O’Day had a great take on the contradiction.

“My wife told me something about our odds to win the World Series,” O’Day said prior to the game. “But the four teams who had the best odds [coming into the playoffs] are now at home, so I don’t know that the odds mean much.”

Odds were that tonight’s game wouldn’t go as scripted – it seems they rarely do in the postseason – and to say it didn’t would be stating the obvious. Any script it may have followed was implausible. This was an unpredictable baseball game, which lends credence to O’Day’s words.

Another thing the Baltimore sidewinder said about the series stands out, and it ended up being irony in its highest form.

“Juxtaposed are the speed and the power,” said O’Day. “It will be exciting to see how we control the running game and how they keep our guys in the park. Two different styles.”

The Royals adapted their opponent’s style and won – the final was 8-6 in 10 innings – not because of their running game, but because the Orioles couldn’t keep them in the park. That didn’t fit the supposed story line, but it was less surprising than one might think. The Kansas City lineup is by no means power-packed, but Camden Yards isn’t Kauffman Stadium. It’s a veritable launching pad.

“People say they’re not a home-run-hitting team, but that’s because they play in a huge ballpark,” said Orioles first baseman Steve Pearce. “We probably wouldn’t be a huge home-run-hitting team if we played there either. They’re fast, but they can also play a little bit. They can hit.”

Hit they did. In the top of the third, Alcides Escobar homered. Later in the inning, Alex Gordon cleared the bases with a double. In the 10th, Gordon took O’Day out of the yard to give the Royals the lead. Three batters later, Mike Moustakas went deep as well.

“This is a park that’s a lot more conducive to hitting home runs than our ballpark is,” Kansas City manager Ned Yost said after the game. “If you put our club in this ballpark, we’d hit a lot more home runs than we ended up hitting. It showed tonight.”

Buck Showalter was also asked about Kansas City’s power surge, and likewise offered little sign of surprise. He did show some matter-of-fact disappointment regarding the outcome, as well as appreciation for great theater.

“They’ve been hitting home runs lately,” said the Orioles skipper. “It is what it is. It was a good ballgame, except the Orioles didn’t win. It was entertaining.”

Dan Kantrovitz is one of the reasons the St. Louis Cardinals are good. More so, he’s one of the reasons they promise to remain good. The 36-year-old former Ivy League shortstop has been the club’s Director of Scouting since January 2012. Under his watch, the Cardinals have drafted Michael Wacha, Marco Gonzales and a number of soon-to-reach-St. Louis prospects.

Kantrovitz’s background is atypical of most scouting directors. Prior to his first stint with the Cardinals [2004-2008], he earned an undergraduate degree from Brown and a master’s degree in statistics from Harvard. He was in charge of international scouting for the Oakland A’s from 2009-2011.

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Kantrovitz on economizing through the draft: “We view the draft as a mechanism to save money. That may seem counter intuitive – it’s a spending environment – but its arguably the best bang for your buck in any area of procurement. The more you spend on the draft, assuming it’s a disciplined approach, the more our club might be able to save down the road in the free-agent market.

“Fortunately, our ownership has been very supportive and allowed us to spend up to the five-percent overage in each year of the current CBA since the 2012 draft. It’s not a new idea, but if we play our cards right and draft a future mid or top of the rotation guy, for example, that would save our club quite a bit of money on the free-agent market. That’s money that our GM can allocate to another area, or a more abundant, cheaper, position. Likewise, hitting on one of those “low-ceiling, high-floor” college players on day 2 or 3 and having him turn into a super-utility type has plenty of surplus value as well.

“Just trying to find athletes, or up-the-middle guys… I’m asked that a lot but we don’t really look at it that way. It might be limiting for us if we stick to a rigid strategy that is not data-driven. What we’re trying to do with our draft is optimize it. We want to figure out how it’s going to save us the most money down the road and be the most productive for us. The profile of a player that is going to save us money down the road is based on quite a bit of analysis…and it is rarely obvious. It is also a lot easier said than done, because you still have to execute it and hit on certain players. I should add that our strategy being based on saving money in the future doesn’t mean we shy away from the high-upside guys. After all, if they pan out, they would save us the most money of all.”

On how Oakland prepared him for his current job: “First, just working in their front office and being around guys like Billy [Beane], David [Forst] and Farhan [Zaidi] on a daily basis, was an incredible environment to learn from. They’re some of the best people I’ve been around, plus they already knew the international market when I was hired, so I was able to absorb quite a bit and hit the ground running. In terms of working on the international side, I think that is the best training any scout can get. You write-up a ton of reports and you have to make a judgment on players without stats, third-party information or really any prior information on a player.  Its pure, unadulaterated scouting that humbles you very quickly, because you are wrong a lot.” Read the rest of this entry »

What is the best way to attack Adam Jones? The answer would seemingly be to avoid the strike zone. The Orioles outfielder walked just 19 times in 682 plate appearances – that’s a 2.8 walk-rate, folks – and his 56.5 Swing% was the highest in the American League. His 42.1 O-Swing% was topped only by Salvador Perez.

Unfortunately for the opposition, while Jones chases pitchers’ pitches, he also chases pitchers by getting hits on some of those pitches. His 63.0 O-Contact% isn’t particularly high, but that says more about his proclivity to sometimes chase pitches in a different area code. If it’s close enough to the zone, he has a knack for getting knocks.

In the words of David Price, “I don’t think there’s a pitch Adam Jones doesn’t think he can hit, and he might be right.” An American League pitching coach offered a similar perspective, saying “Adam Jones will swing at a ball that bounces in the dirt and he’ll also swing at a ball that’s neck high. The difference between him and other guys who do that is he’s like Vladimir Guerrero – he can hit those pitches. One time this year he lined a ball back through the middle on a pitch that was six feet high. It was ridiculous.” Read the rest of this entry »

The numbers – at least some of them – suggested the Tigers would win Game 2. Justin Verlander was on the mound with a record of 7-0 and a 2.84 ERA in eight starts at Camden Yards. His record in seven ALDS starts was 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA. Baltimore starter Wei-Yin Chen had a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against Detroit and had never pitched in the postseason.

There was also perception. While not without flaws, the Tigers are a superstar-laden club capable of turning it on at any time. The Orioles – you know the refrain by now – aren’t as good as their record and destined to fall to earth.

Of course, this is baseball. Verlander out-pitched Chen, but the story often goes well beyond the starting pitchers. And while Detroit’s all-too-predictable bullpen implosion is going to get the most ink, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that a resilient team was once again resilient. This game wasn’t only about the Tigers losing.

I wrote it last night and it bears repeating: The Orioles are good. This is not a statement based on a two-game sample, nor is it bandwagon jumping. I predicted a postseason berth for Buck Showalter’s team in March and they certainly held up their end of the bargain. The team no one seems to respect is now 98-66.

According to writers covering the ALDS, Orioles fans aren’t off base in complaining their team doesn’t get the credit they deserve. Everyone I queried was in accord with that belief. Lack of star power, particularly in the starting rotation, was a common theme. Also mentioned was market. Baltimore isn’t Boston or New York.

As for projections and how the Orioles got to this point – one win from the ALCS – allow me to say something atypical of a FanGraphs article: Read the rest of this entry »

At some point people are going to come around to the fact that the Baltimore Orioles are good. They finished the regular season 96-66 and I’m sorry, you don’t do that with smoke and mirrors.

Tonight, the Orioles smoked the Tigers 12-3 in Game One of the ALDS. They did so with power, an 8-run eighth, and four innings of exemplary bullpen usage. There’s no point in recapping what you watched on TV, but here are a few perspectives from post-game interviews, as well as relevant comments from Wednesday’s media session.

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Victor Martinez struck out once every 15.26 plate appearances this year, the best mark in the league. He fanned just 42 times, making him the first player to hit at least 30 home runs with 45-or-fewer strikeouts since Barry Bonds turned the trick in 2004. V-Mart’s .409 OBP led the American League and was second to Andrew McCutchen’s .410 overall.

Finding a way to contain Martinez – and Miguel Cabrera – is a priority for the Orioles. Martinez struck out twice tonight – something he did just three times during the regular season – but he also went deep, as did Cabrera.

In the opinion of an American League pitching coach I spoke to earlier this week, there is no one way to get them out. Read the rest of this entry »

With the regular season coming to a close – man, did that go fast — it’s time to take stock of what I predicted prior to opening day. As one might expect, there were both hits and misses. Such was the case for all FanGraphs writers, who shared their prognostications here and here. This week’s Sunday Notes column begins with a look at what my often-cloudy crystal ball told me in late March.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays: I whiffed on this one. The perennial overachievers underachieved despite their pitchers’ striking out a big-league-record 1,430 batters [through last night]. The Indians, with 1,442, also broke the mark set last year by the Tigers [1,428]. Rays batters fanned 1,116 times, third least of the 30 teams.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers: This was supposed to be easy. Instead, the team Brad Ausmus inherited from Jim Leyland has a tenuous grasp on first place on the season’s final day. Those abandoned lots dotting Detroit? There’s a bullpen analogy there if things fall apart in October – assuming the Tigers actually make it to October.

AL West: Oakland A’s: For a long time, this looked like a smart pick. Fortunately for Bob Melvin’s team, the collapse was short of calamitous – assuming they win today [or Seattle loses] and again on Tuesday to advance to the ALDS. I have no plausible explanation for not picking the Angels to make the postseason. Read the rest of this entry »

With the sixth-overall pick of this year’s amateur draft, the Seattle Mariners selected 18-year-old Alex Jackson out of Rancho Bernardo [CA] High School. Their second selection, which came 74th-overall, was 18-year-old Gareth Morgan out of North Toronto Collegiate [high school] in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Tom McNamara, as one would expect, is bullish on both. The Mariners’ director of amateur scouting went the collegiate route with the club’s top pick in four of his first five drafts – Taijuan Walker, in 2010, was the exception – but he couldn’t pass up Jackson’s potential. Ditto Morgan’s, despite McNamara’s admission that the Canadian outfielder is a relatively unpolished project.

Jackson was also drafted as an outfielder, but it wasn’t his primary position in high school. The 6-foot-2, 215-lb. slugger was a catcher, but Seattle appears to be set behind the plate for a good long while with 2012 first-round pick Mike Zunino. And while McNamara didn’t say it so many words, he seemingly suggested Jackson could be in the big leagues sooner than some might think.

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McNamara on scouting Alex Jackson: “We saw him for three years. It’s not like we just stumbled across him this spring. He played for the Area Code team in California — Long Beach. We saw him at the Under Armour All-Star, at Wrigley. We saw him at the Perfect Game All-Star at Petco Park. We were tracking him for a few years.

“The scout responsible for signing him was Gary Patchett. Our West Coast supervisor is Jeremy Booth. Our national crosscheckers are Butch Baccala and Mark Lummus. Other guys on our staff saw him as he traveled across the country. I saw him.

“These guys all play on a summer team, and also break off and play in showcases with the best players. We’re seeing high school hitters face the best high school pitchers for the following year, and with wood bats. Those are things you’re not going to see in the spring most of the time. We saw at Alex as an advanced high school player. I’ve had other teams tell me they had Alex No. 1 on their list.” Read the rest of this entry »