At some point people are going to come around to the fact that the Baltimore Orioles are good. They finished the regular season 96-66 and I’m sorry, you don’t do that with smoke and mirrors.

Tonight, the Orioles smoked the Tigers 12-3 in Game One of the ALDS. They did so with power, an 8-run eighth, and four innings of exemplary bullpen usage. There’s no point in recapping what you watched on TV, but here are a few perspectives from post-game interviews, as well as relevant comments from Wednesday’s media session.

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Victor Martinez struck out once every 15.26 plate appearances this year, the best mark in the league. He fanned just 42 times, making him the first player to hit at least 30 home runs with 45-or-fewer strikeouts since Barry Bonds turned the trick in 2004. V-Mart’s .409 OBP led the American League and was second to Andrew McCutchen’s .410 overall.

Finding a way to contain Martinez – and Miguel Cabrera – is a priority for the Orioles. Martinez struck out twice tonight – something he did just three times during the regular season – but he also went deep, as did Cabrera.

In the opinion of an American League pitching coach I spoke to earlier this week, there is no one way to get them out. Read the rest of this entry »

With the regular season coming to a close – man, did that go fast — it’s time to take stock of what I predicted prior to opening day. As one might expect, there were both hits and misses. Such was the case for all FanGraphs writers, who shared their prognostications here and here. This week’s Sunday Notes column begins with a look at what my often-cloudy crystal ball told me in late March.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays: I whiffed on this one. The perennial overachievers underachieved despite their pitchers’ striking out a big-league-record 1,430 batters [through last night]. The Indians, with 1,442, also broke the mark set last year by the Tigers [1,428]. Rays batters fanned 1,116 times, third least of the 30 teams.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers: This was supposed to be easy. Instead, the team Brad Ausmus inherited from Jim Leyland has a tenuous grasp on first place on the season’s final day. Those abandoned lots dotting Detroit? There’s a bullpen analogy there if things fall apart in October – assuming the Tigers actually make it to October.

AL West: Oakland A’s: For a long time, this looked like a smart pick. Fortunately for Bob Melvin’s team, the collapse was short of calamitous – assuming they win today [or Seattle loses] and again on Tuesday to advance to the ALDS. I have no plausible explanation for not picking the Angels to make the postseason. Read the rest of this entry »

With the sixth-overall pick of this year’s amateur draft, the Seattle Mariners selected 18-year-old Alex Jackson out of Rancho Bernardo [CA] High School. Their second selection, which came 74th-overall, was 18-year-old Gareth Morgan out of North Toronto Collegiate [high school] in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Tom McNamara, as one would expect, is bullish on both. The Mariners’ director of amateur scouting went the collegiate route with the club’s top pick in four of his first five drafts – Taijuan Walker, in 2010, was the exception – but he couldn’t pass up Jackson’s potential. Ditto Morgan’s, despite McNamara’s admission that the Canadian outfielder is a relatively unpolished project.

Jackson was also drafted as an outfielder, but it wasn’t his primary position in high school. The 6-foot-2, 215-lb. slugger was a catcher, but Seattle appears to be set behind the plate for a good long while with 2012 first-round pick Mike Zunino. And while McNamara didn’t say it so many words, he seemingly suggested Jackson could be in the big leagues sooner than some might think.

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McNamara on scouting Alex Jackson: “We saw him for three years. It’s not like we just stumbled across him this spring. He played for the Area Code team in California — Long Beach. We saw him at the Under Armour All-Star, at Wrigley. We saw him at the Perfect Game All-Star at Petco Park. We were tracking him for a few years.

“The scout responsible for signing him was Gary Patchett. Our West Coast supervisor is Jeremy Booth. Our national crosscheckers are Butch Baccala and Mark Lummus. Other guys on our staff saw him as he traveled across the country. I saw him.

“These guys all play on a summer team, and also break off and play in showcases with the best players. We’re seeing high school hitters face the best high school pitchers for the following year, and with wood bats. Those are things you’re not going to see in the spring most of the time. We saw at Alex as an advanced high school player. I’ve had other teams tell me they had Alex No. 1 on their list.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles are about to win the American League East and Buck Showalter, in all likelihood, will be named Manager of the Year. The latter is quite an accomplishment for someone who refers to himself as a slapdick with a limited shelf life.

Showalter’s track record isn’t that of a slapdick. As for the self-deprecation, the 58-year-old skipper’s way with words matches his ingenuity, which lies somewhere between fox and far-sighted facilitator. In an interview four years ago – three months before he was hired to manage the Orioles – he told me, “You always have to keep your eye on the end game.” To the surprise of most prognosticators, Showalter may be on his way to leading his team to its first World Series title in over 30 years.

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Showalter on the Orioles’ identity: “As an organization, one of the most important things you can do is know who you are, and who you’re not. When I first came here, we talked about that a lot: ‘Who are we and how are we going to do this?’ You can’t confuse your fans. We look within first and spend a lot of time – like every other club does – preffing [sic] six-year free agents. We look like we have a 75-man roster, because it’s going to come out of Norfolk, Bowie and here. When you have a game like [September 7], where 20-something guys make a contribution, there’s a great morale that comes out of that.

“We’re not paupers. Our ownership has been very supportive financially. We’ve got more than enough payroll. There are a lot of things you may not be able to do, but we can out-opportunity some teams for guys like Steve Pearce. We can give them an opportunity to be more than how the industry may perceive them.

“This thing is so fleeting, and this time of year, things snowball. They snowball good and they snowball bad. September is an eternity. When you’re trying to close out a good season, it’s tough. It tests your mettle. That’s why you challenge your players to stay together, stay together. There are so few people who live in the reality of what they do, and what the challenge is. People try to get into that, but they can’t. Until you’ve been through this and understand what the day-to-day stuff is really like… seasons are really about shortening the bad times and elongating the good times. Everybody is going to have them – as a pitcher individually, as a hitter individually, as a team. You’re going to have that, so you try to shorten the curves.”

On a life lesson and learning to adjust: “My dad, years ago… we’d get up at 5 o’clock in the morning and drive to Tuscaloosa in his school truck – he was a principal – and we’d go in the faculty section of Alabama. He’d have me watch the sidelines and coach [Bear] Bryant. I used to love how Alabama would go out in the first series against podunk – a team they were supposed to beat – and go three and out. I’d ask, ‘Dad, what’s wrong?’ He’d go, ‘Watch the sideline.’ Coach Bryant would walk over to the linemen to talk about this new defense this other team had put on the field, a 5-3 stack or something crazy. My dad would say, ‘OK, watch the next series’ and it would be like a knife going through butter. Read the rest of this entry »

“He’s quietly grown from a kid who was a senior sign out of Arizona State to one of the best lead-off hitters in baseball. He doesn’t get a lot of fanfare compared to other guys on our team, but he’s been an essential component to what we’ve done this year.”

Those words were spoken by Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia, who I asked about Kole Calhoun. I knew right away that I had my lede. A more accurate and concise description of the overshadowed outfielder might not be possible.

Calhoun has been a catalyst. In 112 games – an early-season ankle injury cost him five weeks – he’s hitting .287/.338/.473 with 28 doubles and 16 home runs. On a team with no shortage of star power, he ranks second in wRC+ and third in WAR.

Despite his low profile, the production is par for the course. Calhoun hit .320 with a .948 OPS in the minors, and last year he logged a .282/.347/.462 slash line in 222 plate appearances as a 25-year-old rookie.

The performance has surpassed the projection. The 2010 eighth-round pick came into last season as the No. 11 prospect in an Angels system that Baseball America ranked dead last among the 30 teams. His writeup in the Prospect Handbook said “Calhoun’s tools are uninspiring.”

The skeptics weren’t wholly irrational in their reasoning. Calhoun is 5-foot-11 and his shiny stats on the farm came in the homer-friendly Pioneer, California and Pacific Coast Leagues. In the opinion of the lefty swinger, the venues were an afterthought. All he cared about was growing his game.

“Even if you’re in a good hitting environment, there are still going to be slumps,” said Calhoun. “The places I was at were definitely good places to hit, and that helps you gain confidence, but I still had my ups and downs. Plus, it didn’t really affect what I was trying to do. I’ve never been a huge power hitter. I’ve just been a hitter.”

Calhoun feels he performs better when keep things simple. The trick is figuring out how to stay consistent over the course of a long season. It’s not always easy.

“It’s a constant battle, to get to where you feel you can walk into that box and beat the guy on the mound,” said Calhoun. “There are days when you’re on top of the world and there are days when you’re not. When you’re not, you have to find a way. You need that feeling, which is why you work so hard in the cage. You want to get to a point where it’s, ‘I feel good, I feel good.’”

There have been plenty of good feelings in the Angels dugout this summer. No team in baseball has scored as many runs, and a lot of the credit goes to the player at the top of the order. When leading off an inning, Calhoun is getting on base at a .385 clip. As often as not, he’s the one jump-starting the Angels offense.

“Hitting is contagious,” opined Calhoun. “If you’re on a good team with good hitters, everybody is talking hitting and everybody is enjoying hitting. When you have that going, everybody hits. This is an awesome offense I’m part of.”

Going into Saturday night, the Angels had scored 88 runs over their last nine games, all of which went into the Win column. Not coincidentally, Calhoun was 15 for 42 over that stretch. His OPS in games won by the Angels this year is .944. In losses it is .566.

Hitting is contagious, but is the same true for slumps? If a few guys begin scuffling, is there a snowball effect?

“There can be,” admitted Calhoun. “That’s the name of the game, man. It’s baseball. There are going to be ups and downs and we all try to avoid the downs. But the fact of the matter is, everybody on this team can hit. With an offense like this, there are going to be more ups, and the ups are definitely a lot more fun.”

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Dalton Pompey has to pinch himself when he wakes up in the morning. The 21-year-old native of Mississauga, Ontario, Canada began the year in High-A. Now he’s in Toronto, suiting up for his hometown Blue Jays.

It’s been a whirlwind season for the switch-hitting outfielder. A 16th round pick in 2010, Pompey has catapulted himself from promising prospect to star-in-the-making faster than you can say Lloyd Moseby. Hopscotching through Dunedin, New Hampshire and Buffalo he hit a combined .317/.392/.469 and stole 43 bases. Since his call-up, he’s made four pinch-running appearances and driven in a run with a ground out in his only at bat,

Pompey is well-grounded. Humble to a fault, he admits he’s far exceeded his own expectations this summer. His goals were to reach Double-A and to be placed on the 40-man roster in order to not be subject to the Rule 5 draft.

You might expect Pompey’s head to be spinning given his rapid ascent, but it’s not. A big reason his results caught up to his talent was that he learned how to slow the game down. Steve Springer, who the Blue Jays employ as a “performance coach” deserves much of the credit.

“I call him every week and he helps me with the mental side of the game,” explained Pompey. “He’s helped me learn to focus on controlling the things I can control. We’ve been talking since I was drafted, but I feel I’ve really bought into that approach this year. The mental side of the game is huge. It can shield you from reaching your full potential. So much of this game is in your head.”

Pompey admitted he’s always been hard on himself, and in many ways still is. He feels the difference is that he’s now “picking spots when to be critical” rather than letting every bad game get him down. An 0-for-4 is no longer a trigger for self-doubt, but rather an opportunity to learn from what just transpired. He feels there are positives to take from every experience, regardless of the result.

Learning how to deal with failure is necessary for any young player, and Pompey has passed that test with flying colors. Not that he’s a fan of the word.

“I don’t think I’ve ever really failed,” said Pompey. “That’s not how I’d put it. “It’s more that I’ve never lived up to the expectations I have of myself. This year I had expectations and I exceeded those expectations. I’m proud of myself.”

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Mauricio Dubon wants to be known as a nice guy. He also wants to be a big-league shortstop, which is a lofty goal for a skinny kid from Honduras. It may well happen down the road.

Dubon debuted in the Gulf Coast League last year after being drafted by the Red Sox in the 26h round. Two years earlier, he moved from his Central America homeland to Sacramento, California, to pursue his dream. His path to pro ball was a mission in more ways than one.

“I was blessed to come here,” explained Dubon. “Impact International Baseball Academy comes and gives baseball equipment to kids, and also talk about God. They saw me play and asked me to come back to California with them. I said, ‘Of course.’ It was a chance I’d been waiting for my whole life.”

Dubon grew up playing soccer and baseball, and the latter was his love. Youth tournaments took him to Venezuela, Colombia, Guatemala and the Bronx, New York, but his future in the game loomed a long shot. Scouts said “too skinny” and were skeptical he could handle the rigors of professional baseball. After hitting over .500 in two seasons of high school ball in the States, he’s proceeding to prove them wrong.

Dubon is now 19 years old, and still just 165 pounds soaking wet, but he’s definitely handing pro ball. He was named to the New York-Penn League all-star team this summer after hitting .320/.337/.395 for the Lowell Spinners. There’s not much pop, but there’s plenty of glove. Defensively, he’s a water bug with a strong arm. One longtime Spinners observer compared his glove favorably to Deven Marrero’s at the same level.

Dubon describes his style as “kind of simple but sometimes flashy.” When I talked to him in August, he said he sometimes makes “the Jeter throw, the jump throw from the hole.” As luck would have it, I saw him make that exact play, in spectacular fashion, the same night.

The youngster doesn’t take his God-given skills for granted. His further explanation of what he brings to the table is ample proof.

“Some people say I’m talented and some people say I’m skilled,” said Dubon. “I think there’s a difference. Skill is like you practice every day to try to perfect it. Talent is what comes naturally, and when talent fails, skill can step in and kind of take over. I’m trying to be more skilled than talented. I’ve been working very hard to perfect my defense.”

He’s also striving to be a good teammate and human being, and by all accounts the personable infielder practices what he preaches.

“I want to be known as a good person,” said Dubon. “I’d rather people say, ‘He’s a nice guy,” than ‘He’s a good player but he’s kind of like a doosh.’ I try to say hi to everybody and respect everybody. Hopefully I can get respect back. That’s all I want.”

Rob Kaminsky had a killer curveball coming into the 2013 draft. By the completion of the current campaign he’d enhanced his arsenal by greatly improving his two-seam circle change. His next goal is to recapture command of the pitch that made him a first-round pick.

When St. Louis selected Kaminsky 28th overall, his calling card was a bender that Baseball America called “No. 1 among high schoolers.” Hard and nasty, it complemented a fastball that flirted with the mid-90s. According to scouting director Dan Kantrovitz, the Cardinals thought Kaminsky’s one-two punch wasn’t enough.

“When we were scouting Rob as an amateur, [area scout] Sean Moran told me Rob would have three pitches in the future with plus command,” Kantrovitz said. “He [also] said that because of how dominating he was at the high school level, he rarely had opportunities to work on his changeup and would need to focus on that in pro ball. Sean was spot-on. Our pitching coaches did an excellent job of bringing Rob along this year and really getting that changeup to be a legitimate weapon for him.”

The new weapon was legit. Pitching for Low-A Peoria, the 19-year-old southpaw surrendered just 71 hits in 100.2 innings. He won 8 of 10 decisions and logged a 1.88 ERA. Only two batters left the yard against him.

Much like an on-again-off-again relationship, Kaminsky’s signature pitch did leave him from time to time. Developmentally, it was part and parcel of what the marriage counselor… er, player development staff had in mind. Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins agree that closers could earn more multiple-inning saves and throw more overall innings. But they don’t necessarily feel they should, and they certainly don’t see it happening.

Once upon a time, it wasn’t all that uncommon for a team’s top bullpen arm to log a lot of action. Notable examples are Mike Marshall, John Hiller and Goose Gossage.

In a six-year stretch from 1971-1976, Marshall averaged 73.5 appearances and 137 innings, and twice led the league in saves. Between 1973-1974, Hiller averaged 62 appearances and 137 innings, and had a 38-save season. Gossage averaged 56 appearances and 78 innings in the 10 seasons in which he saved at least 20.

Five closers have at least 40 saves so far this year, and all are averaging less than an inning per appearance. Of them, only Trevor Rosenthal – currently at 66 – is likely to finish with as many as 70 innings.

Nathan and Perkins are used in much the same manner. Over his career, Nathan has thrown 746 innings in 738 relief outings. In his three seasons as a closer, Perkins has pitched 192 innings in 191 appearances. Earlier this summer I asked both if a return to the Marshall-Hiller-Gossage days was possible. Read the rest of this entry »

A.J. Achter made it. He wasn’t supposed to make it. The 26-year-old right-hander lasted until the 46th round of the 2010 draft and was offered bupkis for a signing bonus. Now he’s stepping onto the big stage. The Minnesota Twins called up Achter from Triple-A Rochester when the calender flipped on Sunday night.

Achter enrolled at Michigan State University after going undrafted out of an Oregon, Ohio, high school. He didn’t sparkle with the Spartans. After going 8-13 with a 4.29 ERA over three seasons, he was selected 1,395th overall by the Twins. Knowing he was a long shot, the education major made plans to return for his senior year.

“I was taken in a round that doesn’t even exist anymore,” Achter told me on Sunday, hours before news of his promotion broke. “They didn’t even offer me a signing bonus. It was, ‘Hey, we drafted you, congratulations, but we can’t afford to give you anything right now – unless you’re willing to sign for a plane ticket.’ I wasn’t willing. I was plenty fine with going back to Michigan State.”

Two months later, following a strong performance in the Cape Cod League, he changed his mind. So did the bean counters. Achter’s work out of the bullpen — he’d been a starter at MSU — and was impressive enough that bonus money appeared in Minnesota’s draft-budget coffers. Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Olson epitomizes power and patience. The 20-year-old Oakland Athletics prospect leads the California League in home runs (36) and walks (116). Playing first base for the Stockton Ports, he has a .260/.403/.540 slash line going into the final two days of the minor league season.

Olson has fanned 136 times, but he projects as more than an all-or-nothing slugger. Drafted 47th overall in 2012 out of a Georgia high school, Olson has a smooth left-handed stroke and an advanced approach for someone yet to take his first legal drink. The former Parkview prep acknowledges his pop, but temperance is his M.O.

In the opinion of Stockton manager Ryan Christenson, Olson “is a very patient hitter” and “has done a better job of refining his strike zone and isn’t missing his pitch when he’s getting it, which is why his power numbers have spiked.” The young longball specialist isn’t letting his moon shots go to his head.

“I don’t look at myself as a power hitter, but I’m going to get that label because of the power numbers,” said Olson. “I have that capability, but I’m just trying to put up good ABs and if I get a pitch in my zone, I put a good swing on it. I’m not necessarily set on one specific pitch, but I’m also not up there whaling at everything.”

Christenson was Olson’s manager in low-A Beloit last year, where the youngster hit .225 and finished second in the Midwest League in home runs (23) and strikeouts (148). This season Christensen is seeing a player who is a year older and wiser, and doing a better job handling the inside fastball. According to scouts, Olson has struggled when busted inside. Read the rest of this entry »

C.J. Wilson doesn’t have a simple approach to pitching. The 33-year-old Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lefthander throws everything but the kitchen sink at opposing batters, and there’s a reason behind each pitch. That reason could be based on a weakness or it could based on feel. And the pitch may not come from the same arm angle as the one that preceded it. In all likelihood, it will have a different spin axis, which is a subject Wilson knows better than most big-league pitchers.

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Wilson on his mindset: “When I throw a really good game, I feel like I’ve pulled off a master heist. I’ve stolen their ability to win that day with a well-thought-out, totally under control, non-emotional, logical plan. I knew exactly how much time I had before they called the cops on me.

“We all have different personalities. Some guys literally grip it and rip it. They throw as hard as they can every single pitch. They just stare at the catcher and try to throw the nastiest slider they can throw. I’ve never pitched that way. I was a control pitcher before I had Tommy John surgery. I was crafty. I modeled myself after Tom Glavine, who I watched growing up. I wish I had Pedro 1999 stuff, but I don’t and never have.

“Felix Hernandez is able to change speeds from 90 to 96. It’s a different gear. David Price can throw 97 if he feels like it. Tommy Millone throws 88. You have to understand where you are on the continuum. I feel I have to be the criminal mastermind on the mound if I want to win.”

On spin rates: “Spin is a big thing. It’s like swing planes for hitters. Hitters who have certain swing planes may have what we call bat lag – the way they bring their hands through the zone, the barrel kind of drags a little bit. That allows them to stay inside the ball more and hit for a higher average. They don’t hook balls and roll over, they’re able to cover a wider speed variety.

“Spin control is sort of the same thing. You’re trying to create the illusion of a white baseball. The faster it spins, the whiter it’s going to look. Most hitters assume that if it’s white, it’s a fastball. Therefore they’re going to swing at the very top of where that ball is going to go – in their mind, where they think the ball is going to go. A perfect curveball is going to have exactly the opposite spin of a fastball, but if it comes out white the hitter is going to react to it like it’s a fastball. Read the rest of this entry »