Orioles-Tigers: Notes from Game One
At some point people are going to come around to the fact that the Baltimore Orioles are good. They finished the regular season 96-66 and I’m sorry, you don’t do that with smoke and mirrors.
Tonight, the Orioles smoked the Tigers 12-3 in Game One of the ALDS. They did so with power, an 8-run eighth, and four innings of exemplary bullpen usage. There’s no point in recapping what you watched on TV, but here are a few perspectives from post-game interviews, as well as relevant comments from Wednesday’s media session.
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Victor Martinez struck out once every 15.26 plate appearances this year, the best mark in the league. He fanned just 42 times, making him the first player to hit at least 30 home runs with 45-or-fewer strikeouts since Barry Bonds turned the trick in 2004. V-Mart’s .409 OBP led the American League and was second to Andrew McCutchen’s .410 overall.
Finding a way to contain Martinez – and Miguel Cabrera – is a priority for the Orioles. Martinez struck out twice tonight – something he did just three times during the regular season – but he also went deep, as did Cabrera.
In the opinion of an American League pitching coach I spoke to earlier this week, there is no one way to get them out.
“Martinez and Cabrera are both animals, and Victor might actually be the better hitter right now,” said the coach. “With the Orioles, if you do specific things to Adam Jones and Chris Davis, you’ll get them out nine times out of 10. But I’ve sat down with our starting pitchers after doing all my video work, and there’s nothing you can just do to Cabrera or Martinez.”
“Their holes are a lot smaller and change a lot more frequently than some guys,” agreed Orioles catcher Matt Wieters. “The thing with really great hitters – and they’re world-class hitters – is if you think you found a hole and keep throwing it there, eventually it closes.”
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He didn’t get credited with a save, but Zach Britton helped close out the Tigers’ chances tonight. The lefthander came in to retire Martinez on a ground ball to end the top of the eighth inning after Cabrera’s home run off Darren O’Day brought the Tigers to within one run.
On Wednesday, I asked Britton how he will approach Detroit’s dynamic duo.
“With those guys, you have to make sure to throw every pitch with conviction, in a good spot, because they can beat you in tough situations,” Britton told me. “They’re great hitters, but at the same time, you can’t put them on this huge pedestal. If you execute a good pitch you can get them out.”
According to Martinez, Britton didn’t necessarily execute a good pitch.
“That 3-1 pitch was a really good pitch to hit,” Martinez told me after the game. “I hit it straight to the ground. I got him right where I wanted, a 3-1, count, and he actually gave me a great pitch to hit. I just couldn’t do anything with it.”
“It was a sinker,” said Britton. “I was trying to throw a good, quality strike to him, kind of keep it out of his juice spot, which is down and in. It ended up kind of middle, but it had enough movement that he rolled over it. That’s what late life does. I’ll want to make a better pitch next time, but I got him out.”
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There was no need for Britton to come back out for the ninth inning, but he would have if not for the eight-run explosion. He’d have been the third Orioles reliever of the game to finish an inning and start another – Andrew Miller and O’Day did it earlier – and these days that’s not all that common. Far more often than not, once a reliever sits – long men being the exception — he keeps sitting.
It’s also not common for a manager to use his set-up men in the sixth and seventh innings, and his closer in the eighth. Showalter went against locked-in-roles convention and locked in on leverage.
“He mentioned to us that it’s not just going to be one-inning outings,” Britton said after the game. “If he needs me in the eighth, which he did – he felt comfortable going to me right there – and I was ready. I’ll be ready throughout the postseason if he needs to use me in the eighth, the seventh, wherever it is, I’m ready to go.
“He’s going to throw the best guy for the situation. If that’s you, you’re going into the game. That’s what he told us coming into the postseason, to be ready for anything.”
“It’s the postseason,” said Showalter. “They know that it’s all hands on deck. But the bottom line is, they’re good pitchers. When you have more than one good relief pitcher, you can do that.”
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In Max Scherzer’s opinion, the solo home run he gave up in the seventh inning was a back breaker. It may not have nudged Win Probably quite as much as a few other plays, but it stood out to the Tigers ace.
“The one that stings is the J.J. Hardy home run,” said Scherzer. “That home run really changed the game in my eyes. It gave them that insurance run. My changeup had been working well all night, I just yanked it a little bit and left it too good of a pitch for him. He’s a great hitter and put a great swing on it.”
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It’s an irrelevant footnote in a game that finished 12-3, but Orioles first baseman Steve Pearce was thrown out by Tigers left fielder J.D. Martinez trying to stretch a single in the sixth inning. The ball was lined off the fence, and Pearce is no plodder, so he should have made second without a hitch.
“I thought it was a home run,” admitted Pearce. “The ball hit right back to him. I have to do a better job. I should have ran hard out of the box, but stuff happens in baseball and you learn from it.”
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“What happened tonight is the Tigers were shellacked by a team that maybe, just maybe, gained a tad more respect in winning for the 97th time this year. The Orioles are one step closer, while Detroit is, in Scherzer’s words, ‘Not in the position we want to be in. Not coming away with a win, no matter the scenario, is always tough, whether we lose 12-3 or by one run. Hopefully I’ll get to pitch a Game 5.”
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
fangraphs said it.
we’re a good team
Don’t worry, nobody at FanGraphs actually believes the Orioles are good. The tone of this article is the kind of expected two-sigma outlier you would see if you wrote a large number of articles under the belief that the Orioles are bad and lucky. If we saw a sustained number of articles over an extended period of time, we might revise our thinking, but for now, we have to trust the model and write this one off as a fluke.
The O’s finished the season with the 5th best predicted record by Base Runs and 4th best by PythagenPat….I think we can all agree they are a good team this year
The O’s have outplayed the projections for 3 years now. They’re historically flukey!
These strike zones are really embarrassing to see in baseball’s big showdown. There were many instances throughout the game but that 2-0 pitch to Hunter that was called a strike was absolutely huge. I’d like to know the Win probability change of a strike and a ball in that situation. If they refuse to do anything about it in terms of replacing humans why not make them challengeable, if it is that obvious it only takes a matter of seconds. Just as I write (with steam coming out of my ears) I’m watching Pujols take a ball 6 inches of the plate in the bottom of the tenth and it be called strike one instead of ball one.
I saw the one to Pujols. It wasn’t that terrible
not to add fuel to this, but one of the pitches to Hardy before his HR was a strike that was called a ball…
No I thought strike zone was reasonably consistent in Det-Bal game. I also thought the TBS strike zone box was skewed too low. There were pitches clearly below the knees, called balls, and in their graphics it showed the pitch inside the lower edge of the strike zone so the buffoons in the booth could start complaining “Oh he’s gotta have that pitch….”
I had the same reaction while watching it. The TBS zone was definitely off.
I was watching through MLB’s Postseason TV thing where you pick your camera angles and don’t see TBS’ replays, but there were at least 3 pitches that I had to look at Pitch/Fx which confirmed that each of those 3 pitches were pretty bad calls (the Hunter and Pujols pitches included).
They should have a guy upstairs in a booth every game who relays ball and strike calls to the umpires through a head set. He would also be there in case of plays being challenged. It is absurd to me how much the strike zone changes from game to game, and even within a game. The strike zone gets bigger on a 3-0 count and often shrinks on and 0-2 count. #ROBOUMPSNOW!
That was a lot of good random variation out there tonight (sorry had to do it).
Nice info and extra input. With games 18 hours apart, it will be interesting to see how much Showalter will try and stretch out Miller. O’Day looked awful compared to his great season. He’s looked a bit off the last month (still with decent stats) and wonder how long his leash is in high leverage situations (though not sure who would take his role).
Brad Brach has look filthy at times, and lost at others, will be interesting to see if he gets a shot at Kinsler and Hunter at some point.
Maybe Gausman?
That would make sense, but I imagine Showalter will save Gausman in case one of the starters gets shelled early.
Today might be the day that happens. I’m a Chen fan, but Detroit owns lefties and he’s not exactly a dominating presence out there.
I believe swingman/LR would be Ubaldo’s role, at least in this series. Gausman can be much more devastating in a 1- or 2-inning appearance when he can just rear back and blow the ball past people. He did this last year out of the bullpen.
Speaking of O’Day, I don’t think he looks awful, just not zoned in the way he was for most of the year. The pitch Cabrera hit out was not bad, Miggy’s just that good. That said, O’Day historically struggles against lefties and I would prefer seeing him in R-on-R matchups only at this point.
Showalter: “It’s the postseason. They know that it’s all hands on deck. But the bottom line is, they’re good pitchers. When you have more than one good relief pitcher, you can do that.”
Ausmus: “Welp.”
I know it didn’t wind up mattering much, but no mention of the hit-and-run play where Hunter was doubled up? No outs, down by two, Cabrera on deck, Martinez in the hole, the other Martinez behind him, and the Tigers are trying a deal-ball-era play. It was total nonsense.
What did Cabrera do less than a minute later? Home run.
Wasn’t hit-and-run. Ausmus confirmed it was Kinsler running on his own. And besides, there’s no guarantee Miggy gets pitched the same way/hits a HR if Kinsler is on 1st.
But it was big play despite those caveats.