Jeter Downs can swing it. As Eric Longenhgan wrote last month, the top prospect in the Boston Red Sox organization “has been a polished, advanced-for-his-age hitter dating back to high school.” That attribute led to Downs being drafted 32nd overall by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017, and subsequently included in a pair of major trades. In December 2018, he went to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a seven-player swap that included Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood, and 12 months ago he came to Boston as part of the Mookie Betts deal. A 22-year-old second baseman who finished 2019 in Double-A, Downs projects, per Longenhgan, as an everyday player at the major-league level.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with a self scouting report: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Jeter Downs: “I like to think of myself as a contact-first guy. I’m not the biggest guy in the world — I’m 5-foot-11 and usually between 185 and 188 [pounds] — so I don’t try to hit for power. That’s something that comes naturally, from having the right approach. I call home runs ‘a mistake,’ honestly. You don’t try to hit home runs; they just happen. Basically, I just try to get in good counts and swing at good pitches.”

Laurila: How would you describe your swing?

Downs: “If you go by numbers and results, they would show that I’m more of a loft guy. But at the end of the day, I just try to put a nice level swing on the ball and hit it hard. I’m not trying to hit the ball in the air. I’m just trying to hit nice line drives everywhere.”

Laurila: Eric Longenhagen wrote that you punish pitches down in the zone, but that you could be susceptible to getting tied up by velocity in on your hands. Do you agree with that? Read the rest of this entry »

Quinn Priester has gained a lot of helium since ranking seventh on our 2020 Pittsburgh Pirates Top Prospects list. Thanks to stellar showings at the alternate camp and instructs, the 6-foot-3, 215 pound right-hander has climbed into the middle of Baseball America’s and MLB Pipeline’s Top 100s. (Our 2021 Pirates offseason list hasn’t run yet, but according to Eric Longenhagen, Priester will feature prominently and will grace this year’s Top 100.) Just yesterday, Jim Callis wrote that some scouts have told him that Priester — the 18th overall pick in the 2019 draft — could emerge as the best pitching prospect in baseball in 2021.

Priester, who’ll celebrate his 21st birthday this coming September, was featured here at FanGraphs 12 months ago. Last week, he caught us up with the strides he’s made since that time.

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David Laurila: You were at the alternate site last summer. What was that experience like?

Quinn Priester: “It was about two weeks, so it wasn’t a whole lot of time, but it was super big for me. I got to be around older guys, some who have been in the big leagues, that have experienced things I haven’t. I’ve only had half a season with two short-season teams — I haven’t come close to a minor-league season of 144 games — so I’m behind the learning curve in that respect.”

Laurila: What can you learn from being around more experienced players?

Priester: “Just the way they prepare. They have intent with every throw, because they know how valuable those throws are over the course of the season. Wasting throws is going to lead to more soreness, and stuff like that. It was cool to literally see how to play catch again, and not just be the high school kid who throws really hard. It was about getting in the work that I need to get in, like staying behind fastballs and making the most out of the couple of curveballs I’ll throw in catch play. Rather than just throwing, I was having direction and a goal. Read the rest of this entry »

Casey Mize plans to be a different pitcher in 2021. Not just in terms of results — the rookie right-hander had a 6.99 ERA and a 6.47 FIP in seven starts with the Detroit Tigers last year — but also with how he employs his arsenal. Not surprisingly, data will be playing a role. Mize has a history with pitch design that dates back to his days at Auburn, and those efforts have only increased in pro ball.

I asked the first-overall pick in the 2018 draft what technology has taught him about his pitches, and how it’s shaping his efforts to improve.

“It’s pretty much a horizontal profile,” Mize responded. “We’re starting to take the four-seamer up a little bit to add a little more vertical, because it played so well last year. My splitter is super vertical, and we’re trying to really maximize that, because my slider has more of a horizontal break.”

Mize acknowledged that his two-seamer profiles as horizontal as well, getting more arm-side run than depth. It’s a pitch he’s favored, but that’s one of the changes currently in the works. The 23-year-old hurler not only plans to elevate more four-seamers, he intends to up its overall usage. His two-seamer will be used primarily “to mask the splitter,” a pitch he likes to have diving below the zone. Read the rest of this entry »

The Texas Rangers brought a promising young hitter on board when they took Justin Foscue with the 14th-overall pick of last summer’s draft. A 21-year-old second baseman, Foscue put up a .958 OPS in his sophomore season at Mississippi State University, and he followed that up by slashing 321/.464/.509 in last year’s truncated collegiate campaign. Moreover, he displayed exemplary plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Foscue had 69 plate appearances with the Bulldogs in 2020, and drew 15 walks while striking out just three times.

What kind of hitter does the Huntsville, Alabama native view himself as, and how might that change as he advances through the professional ranks? Foscue addressed those questions, and much more, over the phone earlier this week.

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David Laurila: How would you describe your hitting approach?

Justin Foscue: “That goes into what your strengths are as a hitter. For the past two years — my sophomore and junior years — I was really keyed in on advantage counts. On 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, I was sitting on a middle, middle-in, fastball, and if it was there I was trying to hit it out of the ballpark. If it wasn’t there, I wasn’t swinging. In those advantage counts, you’ve still got more pitches to play with.

“As a hitter, you have to be very disciplined with your approach, because if you don’t stick to it, you’re not going to be as successful as you could be. I kind of just try to hit mistakes. I’m also sitting fastball, because when guys are throwing 94 to 98 [mph], you’ve got to be keyed in on that or you’re going to miss it. And if he hangs a breaking ball, you have to be ready for that, too. One reason I’ve been so successful is that I haven’t missed too many pitches that I should be hitting.”

Laurila: What about when you’re not in an advantage count? Read the rest of this entry »

When Eric Longnhagen wrote up Daulton Jefferies for last year’s Oakland A’s Top Prospects list, he cited a “plus, upper-80s changeup and plus command” as the now–25-year-old right-hander’s primary attributes. That combination helped earn Jefferies a cup of big-league coffee last September, and it has him projected as a member of Oakland’s starting rotation for the upcoming season.

Drafted 37th overall out of Cal-Berkley in 2016 — he underwent Tommy John surgery that same year — Jefferies is atypical among young, modern-day pitchers in that he stands just six-foot (and weighs 195 pounds) and is neither data-savvy nor a flamethrower. His fastball sits a relatively pedestrian 93–95 mph, and the spin rates on his array of pitches remain a mystery to him. Then there is the strangest thing of all: Jefferies features a no-seam repertoire.

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David Laurila: What is your full repertoire, and what is your best pitch?

Daulton Jefferies: “I have four- and two-seam fastballs, a changeup, a slider, and a cutter. My best pitch is my changeup.”

Laurila: What makes it effective?

Jefferies: “I think it’s more of a tunneling thing. You want everything to look like a fastball for as long as possible — Gerrit Cole does that really well, [Jacob] deGrom, [Max] Scherzer, all those guys — and mine has good depth. It’s also really hard; it’s like 87 to 90 [mph] and I can run it up to 90 at times. The only time I get in trouble is when it flattens out and basically becomes a straight fastball. Most of the time, it’s my go-to pitch, right-on-right. It’s my baby.” Read the rest of this entry »

Mitch Keller has only thrown 69-and-a-third big-league innings, and he’s already had a remarkable career. The baseball gods are a big reason why. In his 2019 rookie season, the now-24-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander had a 7.13 ERA to go with a 3.19 FIP, and this past season he had a 2.91 ERA to go with a 6.75 FIP.

Hello, BABIP.

In an almost-inexplicable quirk of fate, Keller followed up a .475 BABIP — the highest one-season mark in MLB history — with a .104 BABIP in 2020. No pitcher who threw 20-or-more innings in last year’s pandemic-truncated campaign had a smaller percentage of balls put in play against him fall safely to the turf. This happened with an average exit velocity of 88.5 mph, which was higher than the 87.6 he’d allowed in 2019.

Ben Lindbergh wrote about Keller’s snake-bit season for The Ringer last spring, and the conversation they had prior to publication is what brought the data to the fore.

“I remember getting off that phone call and looking it up myself,” said Keller. “I was like, ‘Oh, my goodness. That’s crazy.’ I knew that I had a high BABIP, but I had no idea it was the highest in history. Once he told me, it wasn’t like I was coming back to the dugout thinking, ‘Man, I think I’m having some bad luck.’ It was actually on paper, as a stat. It was, ‘No, seriously. I was having bad luck.” Read the rest of this entry »

Dave Magadan was a productive big-league hitter — he logged a 117 wRC+ from 1986 to 2001 — and he’s followed up his playing career with several stints as a hitting coach. In that role with the Colorado Rockies for each of the past two seasons, Magadan previously plied his trade with the San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, and Arizona Diamondbacks. His current situation is arguably the most challenging he’s faced. Having Coors Field as a home venue is a mixed blessing, and it goes without saying that today’s offensive environment is anything but ideal. Magadan has a boatload of experience and expertise, but he’s also got his work cut out for him.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with the fact that the game has changed — hitting has changed — since your playing days.

Dave Magadan: “I guess I’m a little biased. I like guys that control the strike zone and hit for a good average. It’s gone so far in the other direction, where guys don’t mind striking out 180 times as long as they’re hitting the ball out of the park. But there’s always a place for guys who give you good at-bats, get on base, consistently hit the ball hard, and aren’t overmatched by a certain type of pitcher. And there are guys like that in the game, but they’re just not as plentiful as when I played.”

Laurila: How much of the balls-in-play issue is swing plane, and the inability to handle the elevated fastball?

Magadan: “We could do about two hours on that, right? I mean, there is so much malpractice out there in the world of baseball. Not big-league hitting coaches, but guys who are trying to make names for themselves being hitting gurus, teaching kids to swing up and create that launch angle that that is so deceptive. Let’s forget about the swing plane; let’s just talk about contact point. To hit the ball in the air, you have to hit the ball out in front, but when you’re consistently trying to create that contact point, you’re going to swing and miss. You’re going to chase breaking balls, you’re going to chase changeups, you’re not going to be able to hit the late-action pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Taijuan Walker came back strong in 2020. Coming off two seasons lost to Tommy John surgery, the 28-year-old right-hander put up a 2.70 ERA over 51-and-a-third innings. Six of his 11 starts came with the Toronto Blue Jays, who acquired Walker from the Seattle Mariners at the tail end of August in exchange for Alberto Rodriguez.

A return to health wasn’t the only thing that buoyed Walker’s rebound. Like many modern-day hurlers, the 43rd-overall pick in the 2010 draft has become an adherent of analytics and data-driven pitch-design. Currently a free agent, Walker is looking to move forward with a team that embraces those very things.

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David Laurila: What is your background with analytics and pitch design?

Taijuan Walker: “I went to Driveline about a week after the 2019 season ended. I spent a few days there and got assessed — all of the numbers, threw a bullpen — and it was nice to see where I was at with my fastball spin rate, and more. We talked about the numbers, and how to use those numbers to know what I’m looking for.

“That was part of the reason I signed with the Mariners [in February]; they had a lot of that same technology. Woody [Pete Woodworth], the pitching coach there, is smart, and really good.”

Laurila: I assume you’d been exposed to analytics previously?

Walker: “Yes, but I had a chance to really learn the numbers, whereas before it was more like, ‘Hey, these are your numbers,’ but never really having them explained to me. It was never, ‘This is what they mean, and this is how to make [a pitch] better.’”

Laurila: How are you going about making information actionable? Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Perez didn’t get many opportunities to swing the bat during his seven big-league seasons. As a short reliever who played primarily in the American League, that was to be expected. Somewhat less expected was what happened when he did have a chance to dig into the batters box.

“I had two [plate appearances], and I’m bitter about one of them,” Perez told me recently. “In 2008, my rookie year with St. Louis, we were in Florida at the old stadium, playing the Marlins. I came into the game in the eighth inning with one out, and got a double play with the bases loaded. When I went back to the dugout, Tony La Russa told me, ‘Hey, Chris, you’re still in there. Stay focused, because you’ve got the ninth.’”

The Cardinals were up by a run at the time, and Perez was due up sixth in the top half. Three hits and two outs later — an insurance run having crossed the plate — La Russa approached Perez again. This time the message was less welcome: “Go up to the plate and look dangerous, but don’t swing. I want you to take every pitch.”

La Russa was a veteran manager on his way to the Hall of Fame. Perez was a fresh-faced rookie. He took every pitch. Read the rest of this entry »

Clarke Schmidt is more than a talented, 24-year-old right-hander who made his major league debut with the New York Yankees in 2020. He’s also a bona fide pitching nerd. Selected 18th overall in the 2017 draft out of the University of South Carolina, Schmidt leans heavily on analytics as he strives to further develop an already formidable four-pitch arsenal.

His top two offerings — per Eric Longenhagen, “a power-sweeping, mid-80s breaking ball” and a two-seamer with “nasty tailing action” — have each been honed with the help of data. A third pitch, his four-seamer, is currently on that same path, while his changeup has likewise been undergoing nuanced tweaks. Big-league hitters have barely gotten a glimpse of Schmidt’s smart weaponry — last year’s cup of coffee comprised just six-and-a-third innings — but they can expect to see a lot more of him in the future. Clarke heads into the 2021 season as a strong candidate to capture a spot in New York’s starting rotation.

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David Laurila: You have a plus breaking ball. What is the story behind it?

Clarke Schmidt: “In college, I was a slider and curveball guy — mainly a slider guy — and my sophomore year, I think I led the SEC in strikeouts. I had [129] strikeouts, and if I had to guess, I got 90 of them on sliders. That was like my go-to pitch. It wasn’t very hard, but it was hard for hitters to see the spin. It was an interesting-spinning slider, and it had a good movement profile, but it wasn’t a sharp-breaking slider.”

Laurila: What made the spin interesting?

Schmidt: “It was very depth-y. Normally, when you see sliders from guys who throw mid-90s [fastballs], it’s like a Gerrit Cole slider, or more of a sharpness with it staying on the plate longer. Mine was more of a sweepy slider, kind of like Chris Sale has. It was a low-80s slider. Read the rest of this entry »