Quite a few feature additions just went into production.

-First off, WPA is no longer expressed as a percentage. Every player still has the same value, it’s just 100 times less.

-WPA is now displayed in each player’s game log and all the dates in the game logs are linked back to the correct Win Probability graph.

-There’s a new table for both batters and pitchers in the player stat pages that include the following Win Probability & Leverage stats:

WPA: Win Probability Added.
-WPA: The total of a player’s negative contributions towards their team’s win/loss.
+WPA: The total of a player’s positive contributions towards their team’s win/loss.
pLI: Average Leverage on a plate-appearance basis.
inLI: Average Leverage when a pitcher starts an inning.
gmLI: Average Leverage when a pitcher enters the game.
exLI: Average Leverage when a pitcher exits the game (game ends not included).
Pulls: Number of times a pitcher has been pulled from a game before it ended.
G: The number of games pitched in.
phLI: Average Leverage when pinch-hitting.
PH: Pinch-hitting opportunities.
OBP Wins: Player’s wins in a context-neutral environment.
Clutchiness: Difference between WPA and a Leverage adjusted OBP Wins.

For more information about these stats, take a look at the following links:

-Tangotiger’s Critical Situation Series: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.
–Clutchiness: The Blog.
–The One About Win Probability.

If you notice any problems, please let us know and we’ll fix them as quickly as possible.

In the past, navigating you’re way through the Win Probability graphs was probably a bit of a pain since you had to go game by game until you got to the correct date. This was finally fixed today with the addition of a calendar where you can easily go directly to the game you’re looking for.

Additionally, the calendar is color coded so you can see which games were won (green) and lost (red) on each particular day they played. This may bring back some painful memories of some of the worst months in recent history like the Tigers’ 3-win April in 2003, or the Orioles 24-loss September back in 2002.

All the best months are in there too, such as the Athletics’ 17 straight wins to finish August in 2002 and the Red Sox’s 21-win August in 2004. Try it out and let us know what you think!

Update: It should be working for mac users now, but the formatting is going to be a bit off in safari until I can figure out what’s causing the issue.

You may have noticed that the Win Probability section has changed slightly. Thanks to our stats provider, Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), we now have 2002-2006 game logs, which we have used to compile the 2002-2006 Win Probability graphs and stats. Note that we were not using any of BIS’s data previously to compile Win Probability stats and you may notice that a few of the values have changed.

The data BIS provides is much more accurate than our previous data source and as a result there should be few-to-no errors. If you do happen to find an error, chances are it will be corrected the next day.

Hopefully there will be quite a few updates in the next week or two which should include:

– Play-by-Play for each game with Win Probability stats.

– Additional leverage statistics for relievers and pinch hitters.

– Win Probability +/- breakouts.

– Season Leaderboards. (FINALLY!)

– All Win Probability and Leverage stats in the regular player stats pages and game logs.

In the meantime, the 2002-2005 Win Probability data looks quite interesting, especially if you’re still debating the 2005 AL MVP race.

I’ve received a few requests to do Win Probability charts for the 2004 Red Sox-Yankees ALCS. Enjoy!

(Click Image for Full Size)

Tonight’s All-Star game was by far the lowest scoring All-Star game in the past 5 years, but it certainly did make for an exciting Win Probability graph thanks to Michael Young’s 2-out, 2-run triple in the top of the ninth. The National League was very close to pulling out a win, but in the end they still remain without a win in the past decade.

In today’s New York Times, Alan Schwarz takes a look at the All-Star selections by Win Probability Added.

“Most back-and-forths about All-Star selections focus on the player’s longtime all-starness (whatever that means) or, toward the statistical end of the spectrum, his runs batted in, his earned run average, even his on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. But if your image of an All-Star is his season-long contribution to victories, then the more blue-collar W.P.A. — Win Probability Added — could make your next All-Star symposium less, well, cheesy.”

As always, you can find the Win Probability sections here:

Win Probability: Individual Game Graphs & Stats
Win Probability: Team Stats

Tonight, Adam Dunn became the 23rd player in Major League history to hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th to win the game by one run. This feat has been dubbed an “Ultimate Grand Slam” and is only slightly more common than say, throwing a perfect game. The last player to hit one of these grand slams was Jason Giambi over 4 years ago on May 17th, 2002.

In terms of Win Probability, the Reds pretty much defied all odds to pull out a win for the ages. Dunn’s grand slam was worth about 90 points of Win Probability Added (WPA) giving his former season total of 30% a nice boost.

In his second consecutive complete game, C.C. Sabathia shutout the twins while striking out 8 and allowing only 6 hits. He’s been brilliant since returning from the D.L. and has allowed only 7 runs in 40 plus innings of work, giving him a 0.92 ERA in his past 5 starts.

The 26 year old is proving that his stellar end to the 2005 season was no fluke and has picked up exactly where he left off last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) has been in “elite” territory for the past two-plus months he’s been healthy. Even the most devout C.C. skeptic will have trouble debunking his recent success.

My whipping boy in the off season went 3-3 with a home run, 2 stolen bases, and 2 walks last night to raise his batting average to just over .300 for the season. Corey Patterson must have made some significant changes to go from hitting a horrible .215 to a good .306 in just one season, right?

Well, the main thing Patterson has done is actually make contact with the ball. Last season he struck out in 26% of his at-bats and this season he’s only striking out 17% of the time. However, it’s not all good news since he still can’t (or won’t) decipher when pitches are in the strike zone. He chases “bad pitches” over 30% of the time making him one of the 10 most aggresive swingers in baseball. While he has made real improvement and can probably be elevated from “whipping boy” status, I just don’t buy him as a .300 hitter.

Last night Jake Peavy struck out 16 batters in the Padres 3-1 loss to the Braves. The last time anyone struck out 16 or more was way back in September of 2004 when Mark Prior mowed down 16 Reds. This also marked a career high for Peavy and was the 12th ten-plus strikeout performance of his career.

Yawn… another start, another good performance for the soon to be 25 year old. He’s struck out 35 batters in his last 19 innings while issuing just 4 walks. His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have now returned to just about where they were last season. Yeah, he’s pretty good.