The Toronto Blue Jays’ 23-year-old outfielder Travis Snider managed to go one-for-four against the Texas Rangers yesterday, extending his hitting streak to five games, but that wasn’t enough to keep him from getting demoted to AAA after the game. Despite the totally meaningful streak, Snider has “hit” .184/.276/.264 (59 wRC+) on the season, although hey, he has stolen 5 bases (look out Tim Raines (51)!). The Blue Jays likely made this move to make room for center fielder Rajai Davis (30), who is coming off of the disabled list today, but Snider wasn’t the only move they could have made, particularly given his age, prospect status, and above all, how early in the season it is. I could just tempt fate and write “sample size sample size sample size,” and that is probably the biggest issue. But is there anything in Snider’s 99 plate appearances so far in 2011 to indicate a problem that requires some time in the minors to work through?

Read the rest of this entry »

Johnny Damon’s case for the Hall of Fame has recently come up (again). Indeed, some people seem to think it is time to start discussing which hat he should be wearing for his induction. My initial response is “he’s been good, but not good enough,” but hey, I’ve been wrong before. Many times. While the voters have made some progress in recent years, they aren’t exactly known for their objectivity or consistency. What the voters will do with Johnny Damon is one question, one that involves stuff like history and folk psychology, things I’m not interested in dealing with here. Instead, I want to address what the voters should do in Damon’s case.

Read the rest of this entry »

Certain sabermetric analyses, such as those of batting order, are based on simulations. Some will argue that things based on simulations are less likely to gain practical acceptance in baseball. This may be true, but does it really make sense to rule out using simulations for baseball strategy given the prevalence of simulation in the contemporary world?

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, full-time employee Dave Cameron unveiled his 2011 Predictions That Will Be Wrong. I guess there’s a certain humility in that, but I also detect a lack of courage. Believe me, as someone who inserts a qualification in every sentence he writes (almost), I know that “covering your butt” is as much a play to shield oneself from criticism as it is intellectual honesty. So I’m going to show ya’ll how it’s done. Thus, here are some predictions for 2011 that will be right.

Read the rest of this entry »

At this point in the ratings, there aren’t any surprises. I imagine there weren’t too many surprises about the top few spots even before this series began. While I imagine few would see the Red Sox as anything other than one of the top organizations in baseball, the particulars of the rating do hold some interest.

Present Talent – 89.55 (3rd)

Red Sox Season Preview

Future Talent – 85.00 (t-5th)

Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 90.83 (2nd)
Baseball Operations – 89.55 (2nd)

Overall Rating – 89.25 (2nd)

Read the rest of this entry »

After that last assignment, I’m glad I got something that won’t get readers too worked up. A general manager with one full season… what could possibly go wrong?

Present Talent – 79.55 (13th)

Blue Jays Season Preview

Future Talent – 85.00 (t-5th)

Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 81.67 (t-9th or t-12th, depending on how you think)
Baseball Operations – 85.91 (5th)

Overall Rating – 82.59 (8th)

Read the rest of this entry »

I guess the Royals just had to give yet another foolish contract to a washed-up ex-Mariner: Mike Sweeney signed a one-day contract with the Royals this past Friday so that he could retire as a member of the team that originally drafted him. A number of thoughtful Sweeney tributes were already posted before the weekend, and I'm sure there are more to come. Nothing will, of course, ever top this outstanding website preserving the memory of Sweeney’s forgotten 83-home-run campaign in 2003.

Sweeney inspires polarizing reactions, particularly among Royals fans. The pieces above cover the underlying issues — his performances, his personality, his big contract, his back injury — so I won’t rehash those issues here. In addition to the pieces linked above, I’m sure Joe Posnanski and Rany Jazayerli will be along to share their favorite Sweeney stories soon, and you can look up at his player page for the basic statistics. For my part, I’d like to take a look at some of Sweeney’s biggest hits in terms of the stat that tells a story: Win Probability Added.

Read the rest of this entry »

Wow, it seems like we were just in the high teens, and now we’re all the way up to #6…

[rimshot]

Present Talent – 70.00 (25th)

Mariners Season Preview

Future Talent – 85.00 (t-5th)

Mariners Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 78.08 (14th)
Baseball Operations – 78.33 (t-15th)

Overall Rating – 76.76 (17th)

Read the rest of this entry »

Most sabermetric analyses of batting order find that the most optimal batting order is worth between five and 15 runs over a typical batting order. From this, it is often concluded that batting order isn’t very important. Is that the correct conclusion?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pirates have some strength on the farm (though, it should be noted, that tie for 5th place is a 10-way tie, as Marc and Reed handled the prospect ratings, and with just two voters, the organizations are clustered more tightly in that section), but they are not very well regarded in the other three areas, and so they find themselves in the bottom tier once again.

Major League Talent: 67.50 (t-27th)

Pirates Season Preview

Minor League Talent: 85.00 (t-5th)

Pirates Top 10 Prospects

Financial: 70.38 (27th)
Baseball Operations: 75.00 (t-25th)

Overall Rating – 72.87 (28th)

In some ways, the Pittsburgh Pirates are the National League Central’s answer to the Cleveland Indians. Both are led by forward-thinking front offices, and Pirates’ General Manager Neal Huntington was a member of Cleveland’s front office for about ten years. Both front offices have hired prominent internet “saberists”: Keith Woolner in Cleveland and Dan Fox in Pittsburgh. Both are in the midst of painful rebuilding processes. Both are strapped for cash. Both seem to make moves that look good on paper but don’t quite work out in reality. Cleveland at least has the memory of their 2007 run in the playoffs, whereas Pittsburgh has experienced nearly two decades of futility. That is extremely unlikely to change soon for the Pirates, but there are some signs of hope for the future in Pittsburgh if they keep on the present course and catch a few breaks.

Read the rest of this entry »