When we talk about “resistance” to the practical applications of sabermetrics “in baseball,” we usually mean front offices and managers. But players themselves might have their reasons for objecting to some of those applications, and it isn’t just ignorance. Let’s take a look at two possible cases and what might be done to overcome the issue.
In one of last week’s posts discussing whether or not the Yankees needed a speedy leadoff hitter, I mentioned in a parenthetical aside that “even [Mark] Teixeira is going to hit some singles.” I was trying to be openly hyperbolic, but some readers dutifully pointed out that even the most powerful hitters hit more singles than any other kind of hit. To what extent is this true, and what practical application might it have?
Second basemen tend to be overlooked. Chase Utley’s relatively low profile despite arguably being the best non-Pujols position player in baseball for the past half-decade is just one glaring example. Maybe it’s because it isn’t a star-studded position in general, because the defensive standouts at shortstop get more attenion, or because of the superior hitters on the infield corners. What this means for FanGraphs is that the number Fan Projections for second basemen tend to be relatively low, especially for the players on the lower end of expectations. So let’s take a look at some second base candidates from the teams of the (equally overlooked) American League Central and see how you think they will do in 2010.
During Joe Girardi’s remarks to the press Monday morning, he asserted that he planned on Derek Jeter hitting leadoff in 2011. Rob Neyer picked up on this and notes that Girardi is at least saying the right thing both politically and also in anticipation of Jeter hitting better in 2011 (given his pre-2010 performances). Still, Neyer, like many who pay attention to the Yankees, can’t help but wonder if there isn’t a bit of a lost opportunity here with to Brett Gardner:
Would it make sense to lead off Brett Gardner, at least against right-handed pitchers? Yeah, probably…. It is a shame that Gardner winds up batting ninth, because he really is the prototypical leadoff man. There are so few of those guys, and the Yankees are sort of wasting theirs.
Gardner’s low-power, high-on-base, high-speed offensive profile does fit the profile of what one would expect from a “prototypical leadoff man.” However, I wonder whether speed on the bases is something that the Yankees need to be looking to make a priority at the top of their batting order.
Last week, I posted about three hitters who displayed “old player skills” during the 2010 season. Old players are (as defined by Nate Silver) hitters who at a relatively young age have higher walk rates and isolated power and lower batting average and speed scores. Silver found such players to usually have an earlier peak and decline than others. Of course, this doesn’t mean every such player is doomed to peak and flame out early– just look at Adam Dunn. To gain some perspective, let’s step back a few seasons too see players who have had early “old player” seasons and see how they turned out.
How’s this for a hackneyed-and-obvious opening: the Tampa Bay Rays aren’t going to sneak up an anyone anymore. Two division titles in three years, arguably the best front office in baseball, a 25-year old third baseman who is already one of the best players in baseball, and a farm system that continues to be one of the best around will do that. Despite their budget issues and the depature of Carl Crawford for divisional rival Boston, Tampa Bay isn’t packing it in for 2011, as exemplified the impressively affordable acquisitions of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. But it can’t all be about Evan Longoria, Damon (I hear he’s always wanted to be a Ray!), Manny, Jeremy Hellickson, and the rest. There are some less-frequently-discussed Rays who are going to have to produce in 2011 if Tampa Bay is going to make another run at the playoffs. How well (and how much) do you think these players will play in 2011?
People use the description “old player skills” in various ways, from a particular plate approach to a lack of defense to a player’s just being (or looking) “un-athletic.” The term was originally coined by Bill James as a description of hitters who display skills that in their early-to-mid twenties that typically manifest later in hitters: increased power and walk rates along with lower speed and a decreased ability to hit for average. While hitters with good power and high walk rates are obviously valuable, the notion is that younger hitters who rely on those skills while having less of the others will have an earlier overall offensive peak and decline than usual. Which hitters who displayed “old player skills” in 2010?
If you ever get frustrated that your favorite team can’t seem to sign any free agents, just think about the poor fans of the Mystery Team, the perpetual Miss Havisham of the free-agent market. Just when you thought Mystery Team was finally going to seal the deal with Vladimir Guerrero (to whom they totally had offered $8 million), the Baltimore Orioles, like the vicious birds of prey from whom they take their name, swooped in and flew away with the allegedly-very-much-in-demand and soon-to-be-36-year-old designated hitter. Maybe next time, Mystery Fans… But what about those crafty Orioles, huh?
Ever since the season ended, I’ve had a post on the back burner about the worst 40+ home run seasons of all-time. It was inspired by the 2010 efforts of the Toronto Blue Jays’ Aaron Hill and Adam Lind (each of whom managed a wRC+ below 90 while hitting more than 20 homers). Earlier this week, I decided Friday would be the day… then yesterday, the dastardly Daniel Moroz posted on the Worst 30 Home Runs Seasons of All-Time at Beyond the Box Score. After a struggle to sublimate my fury, I decided that I would throw all my best-laid plans to the wind and, instead, compile a short list of the best offensive seasons with zero home runs of recent times.
Prior to the beginning of the 2010 season, I asked whether Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner could become 2010’s’ Nyjer Morgan. In 2009, Morgan seemingly came out of nowhere and produced a five-win season with very impressive defense and surprisingly useful offense. While my earlier post did not claim that Gardner was likely to be a five-win player in 2010 (neither was Morgan, given regression to the mean), I did point to his similarities to Morgan: excellent outfield defense and enough on-base ability and speed to overcome a lack of power. Gardner’s 2010 exceeded my optimistic expectations, as he accumulated over five wins according to FanGraphs’ WAR. In the meantime, however, Morgan followed up his outstanding 2009 with a miserable 2010, particularly at the plate. If Brett Gardner was to 2010 what Nyjer Morgan was to 2009, can he avoid being to 2011 what his counterpart was to 2010?