Carl Crawford was widely considered to be the biggest prize among position players this offseason, and it was no surprise that he got the big money from the Boston Red Sox. However, historically he has had a lot of trouble with left-handed pitching. It’s one thing to point out that platoon splits can be expected to regress pretty heavily to league average. But beyond that issue, how much does his platoon split really matter, anyway?
Since his debut in 2008, Evan Longoria has been one of the most valuable players in baseball according to Wins Above Replacement. Even scarier: Evan Longoria is only 25. But the main reason he’s most likely going to be at the top of Trade Value Leaderboard again this season is his ridiculous contract. The contract has been discussed many times, so I’ll just list the years and payouts of his contract as reported at Cot’s (in millions of dollars): 2008: $0.5, 2009: $0.55, 2010: $0.95, 2011: $2, 2012: $4.5, 2013: $6, 2014: $7.5 club option ($3 buyout), 2015: $11M club option, 2016: $11.5M club option.
There is no need to repeat how incredible the contract is for the team, the circumstances under which it was signed, or the effect it might have had on agent malpractice insurance premiums. It is generally understood that when pre-arbitration players get “locked up,” the contracts are almost always favorable to the team. Such players will be paid far less than less-talented, older players on the free agent market. However, for a different perspective on how much value this contract gives Longoria, let’s take a look at some of the lesser free agents of 2011 who will be getting paid more than Longoria in the coming season, while giving readers a chance to weigh in on how they are likely to perform.
Rocco Baldelli, who would have only been 29 at the beginning of the 2011 season, has reportedly retired.
Baldelli looked like a potential superstar during his age-21 debut in 2003 and his sophomore 2004. Sure, he was something of an overrated player who was better in fantasy (good average and stolen bases) than in reality (low walk rate), but his youth and athleticism left plenty of room for growth. However, he missed the whole 2005 season due to injury, and while his 2006 season looked like a “breakout,” he got hurt again. After that, injury followed upon injury. Baldelli was eventually diagnosed with a mitochondrial disorder (the current diagnosis is channelopathy). He managed to continue playing a bit here and there, although his on-field contributions were relatively insignificant. He was part of the Rays’ 2008 American League Championship team and did get some (regrettable) playing time in the playoffs for the 2010 Rays’ playoff team. Baldelli, who is going to join the Rays’ front office, doesn’t sound bitter, and this post won’t trade in nostalgia, either. While many players might have had different careers if not for injury, I think something like channelopathy is unusual enough (from what I understand of it, which is virtually nothing) that it is worth spending a little time today speculating on what Baldelli’s career might have been like if he hadn’t had it.
Did you hear that the Toronto Blue Jays traded Vernon Wells and his Massive Albatross Contract to the Angels? Probably. It has received plenty of commentary here and elsewhere, and that should be enough, but then someone asked Dave Cameron how the Angels’ trade for Wells was better or worse a move than the Giants notorious seven-year, $126 million contract with Barry Zito signed before the 2007 season. The Zito contract looked like a bad move at the time and pretty much everyone currently agrees that the Wells trade is, too. But the Nerdosphere demands an answer: which was the worse decision?
Underrated by casual baseball fans because he plays for the Royals, and overrated by many Royals fans because they don’t have many recent examples of what a good position player looks like, Billy Butler has agreed to a four-year, $30 million extension with Kansas City that also includes a $12.5 million club option for 2015 (the $1 million buyout is included in the $30 million guaranteed above). This is a good deal for the Royals, but given Butler’s age it is worth taking a look at how Butler might continue to develop as as hitter and provide the team with even more value.
With Jim Thome returning to Minnesota, and Johnny Damon reportedly closing in on signing with the Rays (although it isn’t a done deal as of this writing), the remaining designated hitter spots on contending teams are dwindling: perhaps only the Texas Rangers (who missed out on Thome and are now said to be in pursuit of Ramirez) fit into that category if the Rays get their man. There may also be some non-contenders who think it is worthwhile to add someone in a hitter-only spot. With that in mind, it is worth comparing three of the best hitters left on the market who might fit the description “designated hitter”: Manny Ramirez , Vladimir Guerrero, and Russell Branyan.
Platooning is a smart idea for teams having trouble filling a position. However, it requires the right players to make it work. While the Dodgers have a nice idea in trying to use a platoon in left field, by populating it with Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames, they are probably going to get weak overall offense, potentially horrible defense, and an unwieldy roster.
Joey Votto’s monster 2010 (.324/.424/.600, .439 wOBA) came just in time for his first season of arbitration eligibility. That won’t be a concern now, as the Votto has reportedly signed a three-year, $38 million contract with the Reds, buying out his arbitration seasons. While Votto is obviously a great player, that number might seem steep to some for a player still under team control. However, a closer look shows that the Reds are getting a very good deal.
The 2011 Fan Projections are proceeding apace, but there are plenty of players who need more ballots cast. Today I’d like to highlight some of the starting pitchers who had the highest ground-ball rates of 2011 for your predictive attention.
Ryan Raburn, who will turn 30 early next season, finally made a “big score” this week. Raburn, who has been in the Detroit Tigers’ organization since 2001, was finally eligible for arbitration this season. Instead of going to arbitration, Raburn signed a two-year deal with the Tigers for 3.4 million dollars. Assuming that five million dollars is the cost of a marginal win on the open market and a conservative five-percent increase in that cost per season, along with Raburn being in his first year of arbitration (we assume teams typically pay 40, 60, and 80 percent of his time for those three seasons, so this is a one-year (.4+.6) deal for $3.4 when compared to the open market), the Tigers are paying as if he’s worth slightly more than half a Win Above Replacement (WAR). It is pretty obvious than Raburn is better than that, but how much better?