In the cat and mouse game that is the postseason, every decision matters, regardless of how big or small. If a marginal competitive advantage can be exploited, odds are a team will take their chance. Last year, I investigated what I thought was a key reason for the Astros’ postseason success over the last decade. The piece explored swing path diversity and how Houston had more of it than any other team from 2021 to 2022. Constructing a balanced, dynamic lineup is one of the tools teams can use to keep pitchers and opposing managers honest. There are multiple ways to define balance in a lineup, including swing aggression, whiff tendencies, speed and athleticism, and handedness. But that piece focused on variance in Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) within lineups.

If you aren’t familiar with VBA, it’s the vertical orientation of the bat at contact, where 45 degrees is a diagonal bat. It is pitch height dependent – the number goes down as height increases (flatter bat) and goes up as height decreases (steeper bat), making it vary within a player’s own swing profile. There is also variance player to player. On average, Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman have much steeper barrels at impact than flatter-swinging hitters like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. VBA is one of multiple important bat tracking metrics — horizontal bat angle, point of contact, bat speed, acceleration, and time to contact are a few others — but VBA is the most easily accessible due to the computer vision work done at SwingGraphs. Read the rest of this entry »

When he is right, Cristian Javier is among one of the most difficult pitchers to face in baseball. And his four-seam fastball is a true unicorn: low release point, good ride, flat horizontal approach angle, and good command. While he may have not been dominant in ALCS Game 3, his five called strikes, seven whiffs, and 11 foul balls are enough to say that he had good feel for the pitch. That showed against Evan Carter.

Carter has been a force for the Rangers in these playoffs, and his play earned him a move up to the third spot in the lineup against Javier. But the Astros righty had no issues in their first two matchups of the night, striking him out both times. In the first at-bat, Javier gave Carter a steady dose of heaters, and while the rookie was able to work his way to a 3–2 count, Javier switched up locations on him and dotted a four-seamer on the low and away corner:

You can tell from Carter’s posture and swing that he was fully prepared to stay upright so he could get on top of a high heater. The previous five pitches were at or above the top of the zone, and the best he had done was to foul one off. Javier had no reason to go away from the plan, so he didn’t; Martín Maldonado set up inside to go back to the high heater. But while Javier missed his spot, Carter was fully locked in at the top of the zone, making the pitch a surprise; his body adjustment to get to the low ball happened too late, and he whiffed through it. Sometimes misses go in your favor. Read the rest of this entry »

Gabriel Moreno is one of several exciting and talented young backstops in the big leagues (and these playoffs). After coming to Arizona with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in exchange for Daulton Varsho, he got the opportunity to be the primary catcher and show off the skills he displayed in the minor leagues. He made an immediate defensive impact despite his offensive struggles in the beginning of the season; when the league was running wild in the spring, he was prepared, throwing guys out left and right. But his bat took a second to come around, likely due to ongoing discomfort in his lead shoulder. He eventually made a trip to the injured list, but when he returned, he looked as healthy as can be, posting a 141 wRC+ in the second half and playing excellent defense.

During the Diamondbacks’ improbable run and five-game postseason win streak, there is no question that Corbin Carroll has been their best player. But when you sweep a team that finished with 16 more wins in the regular season, you’re going to need more help, and Moreno has been a formidable co-star. He’s continued his hot streak to close the season into October. With more health, his row and barrel tip have gotten looser and turned his ability to make consistent hard contact into loud home runs in timely situations. He only had seven in the regular season across 380 plate appearances, but his launch angle distribution improved dramatically when he got healthy:

All this to say, it’s not shocking to see him take swings like his 419-foot home run against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLDS — a swing that came on the tail end of an impressive at-bat. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite things about observing the playoffs is seeing a team that has a plan and is unwilling to compromise on it. The first two innings of ALCS Game 1 were fast-paced, and a lot of that was due to the Rangers’ approach of attacking every pitch they got in the zone from Justin Verlander. The first eight Texas batters all swung at the first strikes they saw — every single one. After Leody Taveras walked on four pitches, Marcus Semien did the same even as he got a slider in a 2–0 count. Corey Seager continued the trend in the top of the third, but the streak ended after Mitch Garver took an 0–0 curveball in the zone.

The Rangers knew their best chance of getting to Verlander would be early. In 2023, his wOBA allowed the first time through the lineup was .315, then dropped to .266 the second time through and .267 the third time. Once he settles in with his command, he’s less prone to mistakes. That same trend played out in Game 1. Despite getting five batters on the first time through the order, the Rangers only managed to scratch one run across. And because of Texas’ aggression and putting the ball in play early in counts, Verlander’s pitch count was low; he finished the third with only 37 pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Through the course of a season, it can be difficult to appreciate catcher defense. The expectation is that catchers will put their body on the line for their team day in and day out. But while they have their opportunities to save runs and steal strikes, no single block, frame, or throw has a significant effect on the season; at best, you’re saving a single run. If you miss a block or don’t get your hand under a low fastball in the shadow zone, you just move on and get the next one. But in a close playoff game, each of those pitches suddenly becomes more important, and along with that, the role of the catcher. These are the times when you get to see a catcher who really controls the game, just like Jonah Heim has.

Heim was one of the best catchers in baseball this year, delivering 4.1 WAR over 131 games. From a defensive perspective, he was the best in baseball regardless of position according to Defensive Runs Above Average, third-best according to Deserved Runs Prevented, and eighth-best according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value. Visually, the argument is just as compelling. He is smooth in every aspect of the game and easily deserving of the statistical reputation he’s established for himself. He’s showing extreme poise in guiding a staff that’s missing some of its best pitchers, allowing them to take the risks they need to combat a talented Orioles’ lineup. Read the rest of this entry »

Royce Lewis returned from the injured list on Tuesday to start the Twins’ postseason run. He hadn’t played in a game since September 19 due to a hamstring strain, and it wasn’t completely clear if he would be activated for the series. It’s a decision not without risk. Rushing a player back from a hamstring strain can be suspect, and Lewis’ young career has been filled with health challenges. From a mechanical standpoint, hamstring strains can compromise how you interact with the ground and cause compensations up the kinetic chain.

Given how important every at-bat is in the playoffs, there’s very little room for error. But while Lewis still may not be able to get into a full sprint, that doesn’t matter so much if you’re trotting around the base paths. In his first two at-bats of his playoff career, he took Kevin Gausman yard for two no-doubt home runs, leading the Twins to a 3–1 victory over Toronto and their first postseason win since 2004. Read the rest of this entry »

Where is the line that tells you whether a pitcher is a starter or reliever? It’s subjective, but there are a few benchmarks that baseball folks have used over time to determine a pitcher’s role. Do they have more than two pitches? Do they have extreme splits? Does their velocity hold as their pitch count increases? Depending on the answer to any of these questions (and more), you’ll have a decent idea of a pitcher’s fate as a starter or reliever.

Sometimes, though, pitchers get moved to the bullpen simply because the other five options at any given time seem more viable, and not necessarily because they didn’t possess the skills to dish out six quality innings. The latter firmly describes Michael King.

King was a starter throughout his entire minor league career and even started a few games during his debut season in 2020 before settling into a long relief role in 2021 thanks to a crowded Yankees rotation. But the version of King we saw in the minors and those two seasons is not what he is now. For that, we have to reference his 2022 season, when he fully embraced his ability to supinate and started throwing his sweeper as his only breaking ball, upping the usage to 30%; the year prior, he only threw it 10% of the time. Before suffering a season-ending elbow fracture, he posted a 2.29 ERA and 2.23 FIP in 51 innings, delivering several multi-inning outings out of the bullpen.

On top of his sinker and sweeper, King displayed his ability to mix in his four-seamer and changeup at the right times, both of which have been crucial to his success as a starter; more on that later. That gave him a four-pitch mix where each pitch was at least average and more than one that was plus. That’s the exact kind of arsenal you’d expect a rotation arm to have, but coming off elbow surgery and bullpen success and facing another full starting five, the expectation wasn’t that he’d get the chance to pitch in that role. Read the rest of this entry »

As somebody who grew up playing baseball and continued to play through college, I’m familiar with all the old school adages that this game has. As I tried to develop my own abilities, I needed to figure out which were true, which were false, and which had some grey area. Swing down, for example, is not necessarily what hitters do in practice, and I had to relearn that. Then there is the “squish the bug” cue for your back foot. That actually makes most hitters get too spinny and reinforces an incorrect interaction with the ground. These are just a few hitting examples. But for this piece, I’m going to focus on stealing bases.

When an aggressive base stealer is on first, they command a level of mental real estate in a pitcher’s mind, though it’s important to note not every pitcher is the same. Some are more equipped to handle a runner than others. That could be due to a good pickoff move, quick time to the plate, or simply because a guy remains unfazed no matter the situation. This is all common knowledge. What isn’t, and what I’ve been pondering as one of the grey area tropes, is whether pitchers change their pitch mix when there is a threat to run. In general, I always thought this was true, but I never went back and looked at any data to confirm it. But we live in a baseball world with solid data accessibility, and luckily, this question can be answered thanks to Baseball Savant. Read the rest of this entry »

This year, trade deadline season kicked off when the Rangers acquired Aroldis Chapman from the Royals at the end of June. Texas desperately needed relief help, so it pulled an early trigger in getting Chapman a full month ahead of the deadline. In today’s game, teams moving rental relievers typically do not get anything too exciting in return. That seemed to be the case with Kansas City’s part of the deal: Cole Ragans and 17-year-old outfielder Roni Cabrera. Emphasis on seemed.

Ragans had pitched 24.1 innings in relief across 17 games with the Rangers after an extended but rough debut in 2022. Like last year, things hadn’t gone well. He walked 13.2% of the batters he faced, and hitters slugged .561 against his four-seamer. In that short span, he accumulated -5.2 run value on that pitch alone. Even with a nasty changeup and a four-tick velocity jump from ’22, he was still struggling to get the results he needed.

But after his move to Kansas City and a rough first outing, everything changed. Eno Sarris’ profile of Ragans from last week does a fantastic and thorough job at explaining his career turnaround, from his training at Tread Athletics in the offseason to create his velocity jump to consulting with them and Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney after his first start in Triple-A Omaha to add his gyro slider. I strongly urge you read the piece, because mine is as a supporting actor to that story. Read the rest of this entry »

Since the beginning of 2021, when Francisco Lindor joined the Mets, he ranks fifth in position player WAR (16.2) behind Aaron Judge (20.4), Freddie Freeman (17.9), Mookie Betts (16.8), and José Ramírez (16.5). While others at his position have seen their production tail off for one reason or another, he has remained excellent thanks to his all-around game.

In recent seasons, though, Lindor has struggled at the plate for prolonged periods. But this year and last, he has made up for slow starts with excellent second halves. From an overall production standpoint, he is an extremely similar hitter from both sides, but since the most advantageous platoon split comes as a left-handed hitter, his bouncebacks have often been driven by adjustments on that side of the plate. That story tracks this season, too, as Lindor is on one of the best stretches of his career as a lefty. Here are the differences between his left-handed production before and after the start of July:

Lindor’s SweetSpot% from this side is top notch; that wasn’t — and never has been — an issue for him. His adjustable bat path and swing decisions propel him to launch the ball consistently at an ideal angle. Oddly enough, despite this consistency in his spread of launch angles, his performance was still down in the first few months of the year, and even despite a couple of percentage points decrease in SweetSpot%, his performance and expected outcomes on balls in play still ticked up from July on because of a rate that is still high relative to his peers. To understand why that resulted in more success recently than at the beginning of the year, we have to do some digging into those sweet spot batted balls. Read the rest of this entry »