Back in July, I dove into the pulled fly ball successes of Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes that led to them outperforming their Statcast expected statistics. Since then, I’ve paid particular attention to Bellinger. Much of that is due to his interesting free-agency case. His unique profile relative to previous free agents with this level of performance is fascinating. On the surface, 4.1 WAR and 134 wRC+ at age 27 from an athletic multi-positional player is typically deserving of a $150 million-plus contract. But Bellinger isn’t a typical player; the question of sustainability looms due to the nature of his performance, most notably highlighted by a 10th-percentile hard hit rate.

Doubting the stickiness of his performance is completely fair. Hitting the ball hard gives you more room for error; the further you are down the hard-hit-rate spectrum, the more reliant you are on other skills that are perhaps not as sticky. Spending nine figures on that kind of profile is scary! But the more I think about Bellinger’s profile, this question keeps popping back up in my head: if we hopped in a time machine and went to the year 2008, would we question for a second whether he deserves a big long-term deal? I know that’s a flawed thought, but it’s lurking in my brain because of the years of traditional coaching focused on the importance of putting the ball in play with two strikes and not worrying about what type of contact is made, or how hitting to contact and letting home runs happen by accident is the purest form of hitting.

But after thinking more, I reminded myself of how the data the public has access to now is useful for these exact reasons. We know better than we did 15 years ago about what variables have strong causal effects on performance and/or fluctuation — this can’t be ignored! We should want a hitter to make flush contact consistently, regardless of count. We should question and consider what makes Bellinger different or not.

Recently, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello investigated some of the questions around Bellinger, most notably his hard-hit rate and two-strike approach. Two months before that, Baseball Prospectus’ Craig Goldstein highlighted the concerns around Bellinger’s 90th-percentile exit velocity and how DRC+ hadn’t bought into his performance, particularly the home run output, because of the lack of hard hit. By DRC+, he ended the season at 112, a far cry from his 134 wRC+. In short, there has been plenty of pondering about Bellinger’s 2023 profile and whether it can be repeated. This piece will do largely the same thing, just from a different angle. Read the rest of this entry »

The New York Mets began their offseason hunt for starting pitching by snatching up Luis Severino on a one-year, $13 million contract. After a rollercoaster season that led to -0.6 WAR, Severino had no choice but to take a prove-it deal and hope his performance in 2024 will be compelling enough to secure a multi-year contract next winter. For the Mets, this is likely the first in a series of moves to address a starting rotation that is significantly depleted after the trades of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander this summer.

The Mets have the coin to play at the top of the pitching market, and will likely do so, but this deal provides them with a short-term upside play to bolster a thin group of starters. With a rotation that is currently filled out by José Quintana, Tylor Megill, and Joey Lucchesi behind their ace, Kodai Senga, a low-cost, high-reward player was a practical move. If he performs and stays health, Severino becomes a trade option for them depending on the team’s performance. If they hold onto him, they can tag him with a qualifying offer or bring him back on a longer term deal. Either way, this move will not hurt them. Most importantly, it will not impact their ability to sign players such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who the Mets reportedly have interest in.

I’m sure Severino and the Mets hope that he can forget most of the summer of 2023 and instead build on the success he had in his final five starts. Among the 172 pitchers who threw at least 80 innings in 2023, Severino ranked 169th in WAR. His surface stats didn’t look any better. He set career worst marks in strikeout rate, HR/9, ERA, FIP, batting average allowed, hard-hit rate… the list goes on. As I said in his Top 50 Free Agent blurb, this wasn’t due to a concerning drop-off in rotational power. His four-seam fastball velocity (96.4 mph) was in the 88th percentile, and it even peaked as high as 97.7 mph in his second-to-last start of the season. This is a player who still has upper-90s gas in his back pocket. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m sure it feels fantastic to win a Cy Young or Most Valuable Player award. It’s all your hard work and dedication to your craft being rewarded at the highest possible level. Aaron Judge has won an MVP award himself after swatting 62 home runs in 2022. But this year, he was honored with an even more prestigious award — one separate from the game, and one that is dedicated to one of the most altruistic professional athletes of any generation, Roberto Clemente.

Each year, one player from every team is nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award, and one is honored as the recipient. Here are the criteria, via MLB.com: “The Roberto Clemente Award is bestowed annually to the player who best represents the game of baseball through extraordinary character, community involvement, philanthropy and positive contributions, both on and off the field.”

Winning this award is an incredible achievement for Judge, who started the ALL RISE Foundation in 2018 and has been a pioneer in supporting the Bronx, Fresno County, San Joaquin County, and his childhood home of Linden, California. The foundation facilitates several initiatives and programs including but not limited to student leadership development, youth character, health and well-being, and much more. Developing communities and providing the youth with the resources they need to become future leaders is at the crux of the foundation.

Judge is the first Yankees player to receive the award since Derek Jeter in 2009. Many baseball stars know the importance of using their resources to imbue the qualities of somebody like Clemente. But it is even more important for somebody like Jeter or Judge as public persons representing New York. Clemente is a hero, a legend — whatever word you want to use — to Puerto Ricans (and Latin America in general). And when I refer to Puerto Ricans, I’m talking about both those on the island and those who have migrated to the states, especially New York (Nuyoricans), of which there are many. Read the rest of this entry »

In the cat and mouse game that is the postseason, every decision matters, regardless of how big or small. If a marginal competitive advantage can be exploited, odds are a team will take their chance. Last year, I investigated what I thought was a key reason for the Astros’ postseason success over the last decade. The piece explored swing path diversity and how Houston had more of it than any other team from 2021 to 2022. Constructing a balanced, dynamic lineup is one of the tools teams can use to keep pitchers and opposing managers honest. There are multiple ways to define balance in a lineup, including swing aggression, whiff tendencies, speed and athleticism, and handedness. But that piece focused on variance in Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) within lineups.

If you aren’t familiar with VBA, it’s the vertical orientation of the bat at contact, where 45 degrees is a diagonal bat. It is pitch height dependent – the number goes down as height increases (flatter bat) and goes up as height decreases (steeper bat), making it vary within a player’s own swing profile. There is also variance player to player. On average, Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman have much steeper barrels at impact than flatter-swinging hitters like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. VBA is one of multiple important bat tracking metrics — horizontal bat angle, point of contact, bat speed, acceleration, and time to contact are a few others — but VBA is the most easily accessible due to the computer vision work done at SwingGraphs. Read the rest of this entry »

When he is right, Cristian Javier is among one of the most difficult pitchers to face in baseball. And his four-seam fastball is a true unicorn: low release point, good ride, flat horizontal approach angle, and good command. While he may have not been dominant in ALCS Game 3, his five called strikes, seven whiffs, and 11 foul balls are enough to say that he had good feel for the pitch. That showed against Evan Carter.

Carter has been a force for the Rangers in these playoffs, and his play earned him a move up to the third spot in the lineup against Javier. But the Astros righty had no issues in their first two matchups of the night, striking him out both times. In the first at-bat, Javier gave Carter a steady dose of heaters, and while the rookie was able to work his way to a 3–2 count, Javier switched up locations on him and dotted a four-seamer on the low and away corner:

You can tell from Carter’s posture and swing that he was fully prepared to stay upright so he could get on top of a high heater. The previous five pitches were at or above the top of the zone, and the best he had done was to foul one off. Javier had no reason to go away from the plan, so he didn’t; Martín Maldonado set up inside to go back to the high heater. But while Javier missed his spot, Carter was fully locked in at the top of the zone, making the pitch a surprise; his body adjustment to get to the low ball happened too late, and he whiffed through it. Sometimes misses go in your favor. Read the rest of this entry »

Gabriel Moreno is one of several exciting and talented young backstops in the big leagues (and these playoffs). After coming to Arizona with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in exchange for Daulton Varsho, he got the opportunity to be the primary catcher and show off the skills he displayed in the minor leagues. He made an immediate defensive impact despite his offensive struggles in the beginning of the season; when the league was running wild in the spring, he was prepared, throwing guys out left and right. But his bat took a second to come around, likely due to ongoing discomfort in his lead shoulder. He eventually made a trip to the injured list, but when he returned, he looked as healthy as can be, posting a 141 wRC+ in the second half and playing excellent defense.

During the Diamondbacks’ improbable run and five-game postseason win streak, there is no question that Corbin Carroll has been their best player. But when you sweep a team that finished with 16 more wins in the regular season, you’re going to need more help, and Moreno has been a formidable co-star. He’s continued his hot streak to close the season into October. With more health, his row and barrel tip have gotten looser and turned his ability to make consistent hard contact into loud home runs in timely situations. He only had seven in the regular season across 380 plate appearances, but his launch angle distribution improved dramatically when he got healthy:

All this to say, it’s not shocking to see him take swings like his 419-foot home run against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLDS — a swing that came on the tail end of an impressive at-bat. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite things about observing the playoffs is seeing a team that has a plan and is unwilling to compromise on it. The first two innings of ALCS Game 1 were fast-paced, and a lot of that was due to the Rangers’ approach of attacking every pitch they got in the zone from Justin Verlander. The first eight Texas batters all swung at the first strikes they saw — every single one. After Leody Taveras walked on four pitches, Marcus Semien did the same even as he got a slider in a 2–0 count. Corey Seager continued the trend in the top of the third, but the streak ended after Mitch Garver took an 0–0 curveball in the zone.

The Rangers knew their best chance of getting to Verlander would be early. In 2023, his wOBA allowed the first time through the lineup was .315, then dropped to .266 the second time through and .267 the third time. Once he settles in with his command, he’s less prone to mistakes. That same trend played out in Game 1. Despite getting five batters on the first time through the order, the Rangers only managed to scratch one run across. And because of Texas’ aggression and putting the ball in play early in counts, Verlander’s pitch count was low; he finished the third with only 37 pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Through the course of a season, it can be difficult to appreciate catcher defense. The expectation is that catchers will put their body on the line for their team day in and day out. But while they have their opportunities to save runs and steal strikes, no single block, frame, or throw has a significant effect on the season; at best, you’re saving a single run. If you miss a block or don’t get your hand under a low fastball in the shadow zone, you just move on and get the next one. But in a close playoff game, each of those pitches suddenly becomes more important, and along with that, the role of the catcher. These are the times when you get to see a catcher who really controls the game, just like Jonah Heim has.

Heim was one of the best catchers in baseball this year, delivering 4.1 WAR over 131 games. From a defensive perspective, he was the best in baseball regardless of position according to Defensive Runs Above Average, third-best according to Deserved Runs Prevented, and eighth-best according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value. Visually, the argument is just as compelling. He is smooth in every aspect of the game and easily deserving of the statistical reputation he’s established for himself. He’s showing extreme poise in guiding a staff that’s missing some of its best pitchers, allowing them to take the risks they need to combat a talented Orioles’ lineup. Read the rest of this entry »

Royce Lewis returned from the injured list on Tuesday to start the Twins’ postseason run. He hadn’t played in a game since September 19 due to a hamstring strain, and it wasn’t completely clear if he would be activated for the series. It’s a decision not without risk. Rushing a player back from a hamstring strain can be suspect, and Lewis’ young career has been filled with health challenges. From a mechanical standpoint, hamstring strains can compromise how you interact with the ground and cause compensations up the kinetic chain.

Given how important every at-bat is in the playoffs, there’s very little room for error. But while Lewis still may not be able to get into a full sprint, that doesn’t matter so much if you’re trotting around the base paths. In his first two at-bats of his playoff career, he took Kevin Gausman yard for two no-doubt home runs, leading the Twins to a 3–1 victory over Toronto and their first postseason win since 2004. Read the rest of this entry »

Where is the line that tells you whether a pitcher is a starter or reliever? It’s subjective, but there are a few benchmarks that baseball folks have used over time to determine a pitcher’s role. Do they have more than two pitches? Do they have extreme splits? Does their velocity hold as their pitch count increases? Depending on the answer to any of these questions (and more), you’ll have a decent idea of a pitcher’s fate as a starter or reliever.

Sometimes, though, pitchers get moved to the bullpen simply because the other five options at any given time seem more viable, and not necessarily because they didn’t possess the skills to dish out six quality innings. The latter firmly describes Michael King.

King was a starter throughout his entire minor league career and even started a few games during his debut season in 2020 before settling into a long relief role in 2021 thanks to a crowded Yankees rotation. But the version of King we saw in the minors and those two seasons is not what he is now. For that, we have to reference his 2022 season, when he fully embraced his ability to supinate and started throwing his sweeper as his only breaking ball, upping the usage to 30%; the year prior, he only threw it 10% of the time. Before suffering a season-ending elbow fracture, he posted a 2.29 ERA and 2.23 FIP in 51 innings, delivering several multi-inning outings out of the bullpen.

On top of his sinker and sweeper, King displayed his ability to mix in his four-seamer and changeup at the right times, both of which have been crucial to his success as a starter; more on that later. That gave him a four-pitch mix where each pitch was at least average and more than one that was plus. That’s the exact kind of arsenal you’d expect a rotation arm to have, but coming off elbow surgery and bullpen success and facing another full starting five, the expectation wasn’t that he’d get the chance to pitch in that role. Read the rest of this entry »