As a 22-year-old back in 2006, Francisco Liriano eviscerated American League hitters. The left-hander, originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the San Francisco Giants but traded to the Twins in November of 2003, posted a 4.1 win season in just 121 innings pitched. Featuring mid-90’s gas, a quality changeup, and an upper-80’s slider causing hitters to swing out of their shoes, Liriano boasted the holy trinity of pitcher skills: He missed bats (10.71 K/9), limited the free passes (2.38 BB/9), and burned worms (55.3 GB%). With a 2.35 xFIP, Liriano looked poised to rank among baseball’s pitching heavyweights for years to come.

And then everything came to a screeching halt on August 7th against the Tigers. Liriano, who had been dealing with elbow soreness and forearm inflammation, left his start after just four innings. After spending over a month on the DL, he returned to take on the A’s on September 13th. The outing lasted just two frames. In November, the Twins’ would-be ace underwent Tommy John surgery.

He was effective upon returning in 2008, if not not the absolute terror on display in ’06. He got a few starts for the Twins in April, but was sent down to Triple-A Rochester after struggling to locate. In 118 International League innings, Liriano had 8.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9, though he didn’t generate as many grounders (42 GB%). According to Minor League Splits, Francisco’s pitching translated to a 4.03 FIP in the majors.

The minor league numbers weren’t too far off what he actually accomplished in the big leagues — tossing 76 innings, Liriano struck out 7.93 batters per nine frames, walked 3.79 per nine, and had a 41.6 GB%. His xFIP was 4.31. Last year was more of the same. Though Liriano’s 2009 ERA (5.80) was ghastly, he posted rates of 8.03 K/9, 4.28 BB/9, a 40.2 GB%, and a 4.55 xFIP in 136.2 innings.

Entering 2010, the Twins didn’t know what to expect from Liriano. His control often wavered, and his health remained a huge question mark after he missed time late in 2009 with forearm and elbow fatigue. Before Liriano lit up the Dominican Winter League, hitting 92-94 MPH with his heater for the first time since surgery, he wasn’t even assured a spot in the starting rotation.

Now, it’s hard to imagine the Twins staying in contention without Liriano’s dominant starts. In 136 IP, the 26-year-old has 9.93 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9, and he’s scorching the Earth again with a 53 percent ground ball rate. Liriano leads all qualified starting pitchers with a 2.83 xFIP, and with 5.5 WAR, he has added more value than any other starter.

Compared to ’08 and ’09, Liriano is getting far more first pitch strikes, while also allowing less contact and inducing more swinging strikes. Hitters are chasing his stuff off the plate more often, relative to the MLB average:

Among qualified starters, Liriano ranks first in swinging strike and contact rate. He ranks “only” fifth in outside swing rate, and is 43rd in first-pitch strike percentage. Slacker.

How is Liriano doing it? According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Francisco is using his souped-up fastball less often. When he does throw the pitch, he’s getting strikes at a better clip than in ’08 and ’09:

Those lost fastballs have been replaced by more sliders. That mid-80’s breaker has been nothing short of sinister — check out the strike and whiff rates on Liriano’s slider:

When Liriano gets two strikes, expect to see a slider. According to our pitch type splits, Liriano’s throwing his slider 66% in 0-2 counts, 61% in 1-2 counts, 69% in 2-2 counts, and 75% in 3-2 counts. Two-strike situations tend to be off-speed and breaking ball-heavy counts, but Liriano tosses his fastball less than most when he puts the hitter’s back against the wall:

Liriano’s changeup hasn’t gotten as many strikes, but the offering is still making batters whiff at an above-average rate:

At 59-47, the Twins sit one game back of the White Sox. CoolStandings.com suggests the team’s chance of making the playoffs is basically a coin flip (52%). While the M&M Boys are ailing, Minnesota can at least take solace in knowing that Liriano’s doing everything in his power to improve those odds.

Since he was drafted back in 1990 by the then-California Angels, Garret Anderson has enjoyed a fine, respectable career. The three-time All-Star established himself as a steady two-to-three WAR player with the Halos in his mid-to-late twenties. During the Angels’ World Series-winning 2002 season, Anderson contributed 3.6 WAR and he followed up with a five-win campaign in 2003.

That was a long time ago, though. Anderson was a sub-optimal starter for the Angels from 2004-2008, combating numerous nagging injuries and averaging about 0.9 WAR per season. Things got even worse last year after he departed the LAA organization — Anderson was 0.9 wins below replacement with the Atlanta Braves in 2009. This past March, the Dodgers picked him up on a minor league contract. And, as Dave Cameron noted in his commentary on the Scott Podsednik trade, Anderson has been all sorts of awful:

Podsednik is more of a role player than an everyday guy, but he’s good enough to be a useful part timer on a team that needs one. And, more importantly, he gives the Dodgers a reason to stop using Garret Anderson.

It’s hard to overstate how bad Anderson has been this year. He’s been worth -13.8 runs in just 112 plate appearances, a historically awful offensive performance. He’s just completely finished as a major leaguer, but because he has the veteran label, Torre has continued to use him.

G.A. now has 160 plate appearances, and his lumber has been worth -14.1 runs. The 38-year-old’s triple-slash is .184/.208/.276, and his wOBA is .211.

Just how bad has Anderson’s “hitting” been compared to the game’s all-time out-making luminaries? To get an idea of where his slack bat places historically, I turned to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index Tool. I searched for hitters from 1901 to 2010 who posted a 32 OPS+ or worse (Anderson’s currently got a 32 OPS+) during a season in which they had at least 160 plate appearances.

There have been 150 player seasons meeting that criteria since 1901, with Boston Brave Frank O’Rourke’s 1912 taking the title of most punch less performance over that time frame. Let’s focus on the players who have been the pitcher’s best friend since the turn of the millennium. Believe it or not, Anderson’s sordid season isn’t actually the worst we’ve seen in 2010:

2000: Todd Dunwoody (Royals), 29 OPS+ in 195 PA
2001: Donnie Sadler (Red/Royals), 18 OPS+ in 211 PA
2001: Brandon Inge (Tigers), 24 OPS+ in 202 PA
2002: Jorge Fabregas (Angels/Brewers), 27 OPS+ in 169 PA
2003: Ryan Christenson (Rangers), 30 OPS+ in 186 PA
2004: Doug Glanville (Phillies), 30 OPS+ in 175 PA
2006: Paul Bako (Royals), 28 OPS+ in 167 PA
2006: Tomas Perez (Devil Rays), 32 OPS+ 254 PA
2008: Tony Pena Jr. (Royals), 7 OPS+ in 235 PA
2009: Aaron Miles (Cubs), 20 OPS+ in 170 PA
2010: Brandon Wood (Angels), 10 OPS+ in 184 PA
2010: Garret Anderson (Dodgers), 32 OPS+ in 160 PA

Brandon Wood has “bested” Anderson. He’s got the 13th-worst OPS+ among players with 160+ PA since Theodore Roosevelt took over as U.S. president following William McKinley’s assassination. Anderson places in a tie for 141st. So, he’s got that going for him.

With Podsednik and Xavier Paul both better options to fill in for the injured Manny Ramirez (Reed Johnson is due back soon, too), Anderson just doesn’t have a place on the Dodgers’ roster. The club can’t afford to keep on trotting him out there when he’s making outs like few others have in the history of the game.

The Florida Marlins snagged some lefty relief in exchange for an injury-prone Dutchman in a low-key deadline deal, acquiring Will Ohman from the Baltimore Orioles for RHP Rick VandenHurk.

While Leo Nunez and Clay Hensley have turned in strong seasons, Florida’s relief corps ranks 11th in the National League in xFIP (4.36) and 14th in Win Probability Added (-1.5). Dan Meyer pitched capably last season after washing out of the Athletics’ system, but he has a 4/12 K/BB ratio in 9.1 big league innings this year and hasn’t done much to redeem himself at Triple-A (12/7 K/BB, 5.26 FIP in 21 IP). Control-challenged Renyel Pinto was let go earlier this season and has since signed with St. Louis. Taylor Tankersley (career -0.8 WAR in 114.2 major league innings) doesn’t inspire confidence.

As such, the Fish sought a seasoned lefty and got one in Ohman. Whether he helps much is subject to debate, though. The soon-to-be-33-year-old missed most of the 2009 season following left shoulder surgery and signed a minor league contract with the O’s this past winter. He’s got a nice-looking 3.30 ERA, but with over five walks per nine frames handed out, Ohman holds a 4.40 xFIP in 30 IP. His career xFIP versus lefties is 3.62, compared to 4.92 against right-handers. Ohman has been moderately useful against same-handed opponents, but left-handed batters aren’t trembling at the prospect of facing the former Cub, Brave and Dodger.

From Baltimore’s perspective, the club gives up a guy with a 4.76 projected FIP from ZiPS for a 25-year-old with a history of missing lumber and missing starts. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2002, VandenHurk has struck out nearly a batter per inning during the course of his minor league career, with 3.8 BB/9. He sits 91-92 MPH with his fastball, mixing in a hard mid-80’s slider and a changeup.

He comes with plenty of drawbacks, though. For one, the 6-5 righty can’t stay healthy — he scarcely pitched at all in 2005 and 2006 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, missed time in 2008 with ulnar neuritis and was put on the shelf with elbow inflammation last season. VandenHurk is also an extreme fly ball pitcher, with a 37 GB% in the minors since 2005 according to Minor League Splits. That leads to lots of round trippers. In 155.2 major league innings over the 2007-2010 seasons, Rick has gotten grounders just 27.8% of the time. As a result, he has surrendered 1.56 HR/9, and that’s without a sky-high home run per fly ball rate (12.3%). VandenHurk has fooled plenty of hitters (8.79 K/9 in the majors). But all those big flies, coupled with ample walks (4.63 BB/9), have led to a 5.19 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP.

Chances are, this trade won’t have a profound effect on either team. Ohman’s a so-so southpaw, and VandenHurk can’t seem to stay off the DL for any sustained length of time. Still, the swap gives the Marlins a better lefty than Tankersley and the O’s a live arm who could play some part on the next relevant Baltimore club.

At 65-37, The New York Yankees have a better than 90 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings. With no gaping holes and a potential blockbuster for a starting pitcher no longer on the table, the Bombers have bolstered the DH spot with Lance Berkman and upgraded with bench with Austin Kearns. Now, the Yankees have added Kerry Wood from the Cleveland Indians in an attempt to strengthen the bridge to Mariano Rivera. The Indians will send cash (approximately $1.5 million of Wood’s remaining $3.6 million salary) as part of the deal, while picking up a player to be named later from the Yankees.

Wood, 33, inked a two-year, $20.5 million deal with the Tribe prior to the 2009 season. Suffice it to say, Cleveland’s return on investment has been poor — Wood compiled just 0.2 WAR in 75 innings with the Indians. His xFIP was 4.11 in 55 frames last season, as he missed lots of bats (10.31 K/9) but walked 4.58 batters per nine. In between DL stints for a strained Latissimus muscle in his back and a blister on his right index finger in 2010, Wood has 8.1 K/9, 4.95 BB/9 and a 5.04 xFIP in 20 IP. The Texan has an $11 million club option for the 2011 season that would have been guaranteed if he finished 55 games this season, but that ship has obviously sailed. And, that option won’t be exercised. The Yankees might, as Rob Neyer said, “have more loose money than a Saudi prince,” but there’s no chance of them retaining Wood at that price.

As a unit, Yankees’ bullpen ranks fourth in the American League in xFIP and seventh in Win Probability Added. Mo remains marvelous, and both Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson have pitched much better than their ERAs would indicate. The extra relief arm won’t hurt, though. Given Wood’s injury problems and bouts of wildness, he shouldn’t be expected to dominate — ZiPS projects him for a 4.05 rest-of-season FIP, with a strikeout per inning and nearly four walks per nine frames. But, considering the apparently minimal price tag to pick up Wood and the lack of depth in the Bombers’ ‘pen, he’s a worthwhile addition.

The Arizona Diamondbacks were panned last week for shipping Dan Haren and his team-friendly contract to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for an underwhelming return. While that trade could come back to bite the organization, the D-Backs managed to get good value today in sending Edwin Jackson to the Chicago White Sox for Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg.

Jackson, 26, was picked up by Arizona this past off-season (along with RHP Ian Kennedy) as part of a three-team trade that cost the club Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth. The former Dodger, Ray and Tiger signed a two-year deal in February that bought out his two remaining years of arbitration eligibility — Jackson’s earning $4.6 million this season and he’ll pull in $8.35 million in 2011. With Arizona buried in the standings, the team has decided to blow up the current roster instead of trying to fix weak spots around a strong nucleus of young talent. Jackson’s year-and-change of service time is being converted into cost-controlled talent in the form of Hudson and Holmberg.

A fifth-round pick out of Old Dominion in the 2005 draft, Hudson shot from Low-A ball to the majors in 2009 and rated 66th on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects lists prior to this season. The 6-4, 220 pound right-hander comes equipped with 92-93 MPH heat, a mid-80’s slider and a low-80’s changeup, as well as an occasional mid-70’s curve. Though the 23-year-old hasn’t found success in a small sample of big league pitching over the past two years (a 5.41 xFIP in 34.1 innings), he has 10.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a mid-three’s FIP in 117.1 IP at the Triple-A level.

Hudson doesn’t project as a top-of-the-rotation stud, and there are concerns over his fly ball tendencies (39.2 GB% in Triple-A). Still, the Diamondbacks get six seasons of team control over a MLB-ready starter who might not perform all that differently than Jackson right now. These projections came prior to the trade, but consider Hudson and Jackson’s rest-of-season forecasts from ZiPS:

Hudson: 7.02 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9, 4.06 FIP
Jackson: 6.78 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 4.16 FIP

Hudson might give up more homers than that — according to Minor League Splits, his work at Triple-A translates to more than a HR per nine and a 4.36 FIP in the show. Is that worth years of service time and millions of dollars to the Pale Hose, though? Perhaps the White Sox will use Jackson as part of another deal to acquire a bat. In this trade, they got the guy with greater name value and a bigger salary without necessarily getting much better.

In addition to Hudson, Arizona added a 19 year-old lefty in Holmberg. The 6-4, 220 pounder was Chicago’s second-round pick in the 2009 draft. Holmberg doesn’t get rave reviews for his physical build (BA compared him to a young David Wells in that regard) or his fastball, which sits in the upper-eighties. He does, however, possess a sharp curveball and changeup. Holmberg’s professional experience is scarce, as he has tossed 80.1 innings in rookie ball over the past two years with 7.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, a 4.38 FIP and a ground ball rate slightly above 50 percent. He’s not a great prospect, but Arizona could have something if his velocity creeps up a bit.

The Diamondbacks have to be pleased with their haul for Jackson — they got younger and cheaper, perhaps without surrendering anything in terms of on-field performance in the present.

For most major league shortstops, a .285/.366/.443 batting line and a .355 wOBA would be cause for celebration. Hanley Ramirez isn’t like most shortstops, however. The 26-year old Marlins star posted a combined .397 wOBA over the 2006-2009 seasons, easily topping the .400 wOBA mark in each of the past three years. Prior to 2010, ZiPS projected Hanley for a .408 wOBA, and CHONE called for a .412 wOBA.

Why is Ramirez merely hitting very well as opposed to ranking among the absolute best batters in the big leagues? One reason is a lower-than-usual batting average on balls in play — Hanley’s BABIP is .307 this season. His career BABIP is .345, and both ZiPS (.355 pre-season BABIP) and CHONE (.357) predicted 35-36% of his balls put in play would evade fielders. According to this expected BABIP (xBABIP) calculator from The Hardball Times, Ramirez’s BABIP should be closer to .333.

So, Ramirez has been unlucky to an extent. But that’s not to say that everything else is business as usual. His power production is down:

Hanley’s Isolated Power is .158. His career average is .207, and ZiPS (.217 pre-season ISO) and CHONE (.221) expected him to easily surpass the .200 mark. On a related note, Ramirez’s ground ball rate has spiked:

He’s hitting grounders 54.5% of the time in 2010. By contrast, Ramirez’s GB% was 43.8 in 2006, 40.1 in 2007, 45.8 in 2008 and 38.6 last season.

Using Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, I broke down Hanley’s batted ball distribution by pitch type over the 2008-2010 seasons (the years for which we have a lot of Pitch F/X data). I also included Ramirez’s slugging percentage on contact (SLG CON) by pitch type. To provide context, you’ll also find the major league averages by pitch type, provided by THT’s Harry Pavlidis.

(Note: the fastball averages include both four-seam and two-seam fastballs.)

Hanley’s hitting more ground balls on fastballs, sliders, curveballs and changeups. He’s still killing fastballs when he makes fair contact, but not to the same extent as in 2008 and 2009. The sample size isn’t huge on curveballs and changeups, but he hasn’t done much of anything with those pitches this season — check out those SLG CON totals in 2010 compared to the two previous seasons.

I don’t think there’s any reason to think that his power output will remain this mild — with 432 plate appearances, Ramirez is short of the point at which ISO becomes statistically reliable (550 PA). It’s entirely possible that he goes on an extra-base hit binge from here on out. ZiPS projects a .190 ISO for the rest of the season. That, along with a BABIP bounce back (.335 projected), gives Ramirez a .391 rest-of-season wOBA. The fact that people are asking, “what’s wrong with this guy?” when he has the second-best wOBA among qualified shortstops tells you just how special a talent Hanley Ramirez is.

Scouring the WAR leader board for major league second basemen reveals a surprising name directly behind Robinson Cano. Milwaukee’s Rickie Weeks, a perennial breakout pick whose career has been sidetracked by injury, ranks as the second-most valuable player at the keystone spot this season. Granted, Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia would likely place higher if not for injuries of their own. But to his credit, Weeks has already hit the four win mark before the calendar turns to August.

The second overall pick in the 2003 draft, Weeks walloped minor league pitching to the tune of a .289/.404/.493 line. He worked the count, packed a punch and showed lightning-quick wrists with a bat waggle reminiscent of Gary Sheffield. With that profile, Baseball America ranked Weeks as a top-10 prospect prior to the 2004 and 2005 seasons. “Weeks,” Baseball America gushed back in ’04, “has surprising pop for his size, as well as tremendous speed and quickness on the base paths, a combination that has many scouts comparing him to a young Joe Morgan.”

Comparing any young second baseman to Morgan, a guy with 108 career WAR and a 146 wRC+, is totally unfair. Still, Weeks was supposed to emerge as an up-the-middle force for the Brewers in short order. To say that the Southern University product had been a disappointment prior to 2010 wouldn’t be totally fair, but he never had that monster season that scouts envisioned.

Weeks was a league-average hitter (100 wRC+) in 2005, but rated poorly in the field and had just 0.3 WAR in 96 games played. The next year, he had a 108 wRC+, but again cost the club plenty of runs in the field and had 0.9 WAR in 95 games. Weeks’ season ended in late July, as he underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right wrist. 2007 looked like a nice step forward — despite a DL stint for right wrist tendinitis and a brief, punitive demotion to Triple-A Nashville, he put up a 124 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR in 118 games, with less damage being done with the glove. Instead, his 2008 season was merely decent — a 105 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR in 129 games.

Last year, Weeks got off to a superb start. In 162 plate appearances, he had a 126 wRC+ on the power of a .245 ISO. Through just 37 games, Weeks racked up 1.4 WAR. And then, another injury — his season came to a halt in mid-May as he had a procedure to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist.

So far in 2010, though, Weeks has remained in the lineup and has been at his best. In 487 PA, he’s batting .276/.376/.492, with a 140 wRC+. The 27-year-old holds a .216 ISO and has popped 22 home runs. With those quick, powerful wrists, Weeks’ homers have traveled faster and farther than most other batters. According to Hit Tracker Online, the average speed off the bat on Weeks’ big flies is 106.1 MPH, compared to the 103.3 MPH major league average. The “standard distance” on his dingers is 406.2 feet, while the MLB average is 393.5 feet. Standard distance, per Hit Tracker Online, “factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.”

Weeks may regress somewhat at the plate — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .364 wOBA, while his current mark is .381 — and he’s never going to be confused with a Gold Glover in the field (career -8.2 UZR/150). But a healthy Weeks has been a bright spot during an otherwise bleak season for the Brew Crew.

Ever since the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Kenley Geronimo Jansen out of Curacao in 2004, his Howitzer-like arm strength has stood out. A catcher with a burly 6-foot-6, 220 pound frame, Jansen threw out 37 percent of base runners attempting to steal on his watch in the minors. He achieved fame during the 2009 World Baseball Classic as part of the Netherlands team that toppled a Dominican Republic juggernaut featuring Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Ortiz, Miguel Tejada, Pedro Martinez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Edinson Volquez, among others. Jansen helped seal a 3-2 victory by gunning down Wily Taveras on a ninth-inning attempted steal of third base. Do you believe in miracles? Ja!

Unfortunately, dude couldn’t hit. The “switch hitter” posted a .257/.347/.341 triple-slash in 475 Rookie Ball plate appearances and .203/.281/.353 line in 347 trips to the plate in A-ball. Not wanting Jansen’s cannon to go to waste, the Dodgers shifted him to the mound toward the end of last season. Jansen logged 11.2 innings with Inland Empire of the High-A California League, punching out 19 batters but handing out 11 walks and surrendering six runs.

He then competed in the Arizona Fall League, where he opened eyes by popping the catcher’s mitt with 96-97 MPH radar gun readings. Jansen averaged about 95 MPH with his fastball, according to Baseball America. While he didn’t pitch much in the AFL (just 4.2 innings), he offered enough promise for L.A. to add him to the 40-man roster, protecting him from the Rule V Draft. Kenley got some prospect love, too, with BA naming him the 14th-best prospect in the Dodgers’ farm system. They lauded the right-hander’s mid-to-upper-nineties velocity and his promising, if unrefined, low-80’s slider.

This season, Jansen has spent time at High-A Inland Empire and Chattanooga of the Double-A Southern League. In 45 combined frames between the 66ers and the Lookouts, Jansen fanned a jaw-dropping 78 hitters (15.6 K/9) while issuing 23 free passes (4.6 BB/9). According to Minor League Splits, the 22-year-old’s park-and-luck adjusted FIP was 2.36. Throwing lots of high Gouda, Jansen induced infield flies 26.5 percent of the time. Jansen has tossed two innings since the Dodgers called him up on July 23rd, chucking his fastball at an average velocity just short of 95 MPH while sitting around 80 MPH with the slider.

Within the course of a year, Jansen has gone from flailing at A-ball pitching to flinging heat in the majors. As Sergio Santos and now Jansen have shown this season, the path from minor league position player to big league bullpen arm is short if you can bring it.

After returning from Tommy John surgery last September, Tim Hudson picked up right where he left off. The undersized righty logged 42.1 innings pitched for the Atlanta Braves, striking out 6.38 batters per nine, issuing 2.76 BB/9 and getting ground balls at a characteristically strong clip (62.2 GB%). Hudson’s xFIP was 3.47. Convinced that the former Auburn star was none the worse for wear after going under the knife, the Braves signed Hudson to a three-year, $28 million contract extension, with a $9 million club option for the 2013 season.

So far in 2010, the 35-year-old has pitched relatively well, if not quite up to his usual standards. His strikeout and walk rates aren’t as sharp, as he’s got 4.47 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 135 frames. That punch out rate is the lowest of Hudson’s career, due in large part to a 6.8 percent swinging strike rate (9.2 percent average for Huddy since 2002) and an 83.9 percent contact rate that’s several ticks above his 80 percent mark dating back to ’02. Hudson has also placed fewer pitches within the strike zone than the MLB average for the first time since 2005, and his 53.4 percent first pitch strike percentage doesn’t come close to his 59.7 percent average since ’02.

But, Hudson’s scorched earth policy has been in full effect — his 66% ground ball rate leads all qualified starting pitchers by a wide margin. The next closest competitors are Justin Masterson (64%) and teammate Derek Lowe (57.9%). With those extreme ground ball tendencies, Hudson has still managed to post a 4.22 xFIP despite the downturn in K’s and increase in walks.

If you just focused on Hudson’s ERA, however, you’d be convinced that he’s experiencing a career year. His ERA currently sits at a sparkling 2.47. The 1.75 run discrepancy between his xFIP and ERA is the third-largest among qualified starters — only Jason Vargas and Johan Santana have larger splits between their peripheral stats and their actual ERAs. Hudson is stranding far more base runners than usual, with an 83.2 LOB% that exceeds his career 74.1% left on base rate. And, he’s also getting some fantastic bounces on balls put in play. Hudson has a .231 BABIP, compared to a career .286 average.

According to Baseball-Reference, his BABIP on grounders is just .190. For comparison, the 2010 NL average is .238, and Hudson’s career BABIP on ground balls is .209. Dave Allen has kindly provided a pair of Pitch F/X graphs that shed further light on Hudson’s ground balls. The top image shows the frequency of Hudson’s grounders by direction of the ball put in play, compared to the 2010 average for right-handed pitchers. The bottom image shows Hudson’s BABIP on ground balls by the direction of the ball put in play. The labels (3B, 2B, 1B) are the location of the bases, not the fielders.

A large portion of Hudson’s grounders have been hit right where the second baseman is typically positioned. As you can see, the BABIP on grounders hit to that spot, both for Hudson and the average RHP, is very low. Also, Hudson’s BABIP on ground balls hit down the first base line is much lower than the average righty. Here’s what Allen had to say about Hudson’s high rate of grounders hit toward the player manning the keystone spot: “I don’t think there is any reason to think that Hudson can magically throw pitches that turn into grounders straight to the second basemen, and it looks like tons of luck.”

Whether it’s a trend or just a coincidence, Hudson’s strikeout rate has climbed to about five whiffs per nine since June, and his walk rate has decreased every month of the season. Those are good signs for Hudson if he doesn’t want to see his ERA regress into the fours from this point forward, as he likely won’t get as many outs on worm burners in the months to come.

At 55-39, the San Diego Padres unexpectedly sit atop the NL West division. Possessing the second-best record in the Senior Circuit, the Friars have a better than seven-in-ten chance of playing postseason baseball, according to CoolStandings.com. The Padres’ bats have been about average, once Petco Park’s hatred toward all things offense is considered. Moreover, the club has a combined -2.2 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, sixth in the NL. But the major reasons for San Diego’s success are excellent defense (first in the NL in UZR), an electric bullpen (1st in xFIP and WPA) and a starting rotation that ranks third in the NL in ERA.

Those starters have a 3.53 ERA, but a more run-of-the-mill 4.15 xFIP, which places eighth in the NL. Given the Padres’ defensive adeptness, it’s not surprising that those starters are faring better than their fielding independent components would indicate. But that 0.62 ERA/xFIP split is also due in part to good fortune in terms of stranding base runners; the Padres starters have a collective 77.7% left on base rate, highest in the majors.

A couple of days ago, Dave Cameron discussed Ricky Nolasco, who has posted a lower strand rate than we would expect given his fielding independent stats. Today, I’d like to introduce you to the anti-Nolasco — Wade LeBlanc.

In 2009, the lefty struck out 5.83 batters per nine innings, issued 3.69 BB/9, and had a 36.2 ground ball rate in 46.1 innings pitched. LeBlanc’s xFIP (5.21) was blasé, but a combination of a low BABIP (.224) and high strand rate (78.6%) allowed him to post a 3.69 ERA.

This season, LeBlanc owns a 6.2 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, and a 37.7 GB% in 98.2 innings, with his BABIP regressing to an even .300. Yet the split between his ERA and xFIP remains humongous. Wade owns a 3.28 ERA, which is no doubt aided by pitching in a park that severely depresses doubles and HR production. But that still doesn’t explain the ERA/xFIP divergence. According to Baseball-Reference, LeBlanc’s ERA in a neutral park with 2010’s NL run-scoring level is 3.79, but his xFIP is 4.71. The major explanation for that dichotomy is that the 25-year-old has been the game’s greatest escape artist.

LeBlanc has stranded 85.7% of the runners that he has put on base, which is the highest mark among qualified major league starters. Has he pitched exceptionally well once runners reach base? Nope:

The difference was even more pronounced last season (albeit in a smaller sample) — a 4.85 xFIP with nobody on, and a 5.91 xFIP with men on base.

Most pitchers perform worse with runners on. LeBlanc’s walk rate with runners on base versus bases empty situations has increased somewhat less than the NL average, but his K rate in situations with men on base has fallen more than most. Here are LeBlanc’s strikeout/PA and walk/PA numbers with the bases empty and men on this season. The “Men On/Bases Empty” column is LeBlanc’s figures with men on divided by his figures with the bases empty.

Overall, LeBlanc’s K/PA and BB/PA figures are below-average as compared to the average NL pitcher.

LeBlanc’s walk rate with men on base has increased 27 percent compared to bases empty situations (the average NL increase is 34 percent). His K rate, on the other hand, has fallen nearly 19 percent with men on compared to when the bases are empty (the average NL decrease is 6.3 percent).

According to this formula developed by Dave Studeman, LeBlanc’s LOB rate should have been around 68.8% in 2009 and should be closer to 70.5% in 2010.

Wade LeBlanc is in a fantastic situation as a result of pitching in a cavernous park behind quality fielders. But eventually, he’s going to get himself into some jams from which he won’t be able to escape.