Wade LeBlanc’s Houdini Act

At 55-39, the San Diego Padres unexpectedly sit atop the NL West division. Possessing the second-best record in the Senior Circuit, the Friars have a better than seven-in-ten chance of playing postseason baseball, according to CoolStandings.com. The Padres’ bats have been about average, once Petco Park’s hatred toward all things offense is considered. Moreover, the club has a combined -2.2 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, sixth in the NL. But the major reasons for San Diego’s success are excellent defense (first in the NL in UZR), an electric bullpen (1st in xFIP and WPA) and a starting rotation that ranks third in the NL in ERA.

Those starters have a 3.53 ERA, but a more run-of-the-mill 4.15 xFIP, which places eighth in the NL. Given the Padres’ defensive adeptness, it’s not surprising that those starters are faring better than their fielding independent components would indicate. But that 0.62 ERA/xFIP split is also due in part to good fortune in terms of stranding base runners; the Padres starters have a collective 77.7% left on base rate, highest in the majors.

A couple of days ago, Dave Cameron discussed Ricky Nolasco, who has posted a lower strand rate than we would expect given his fielding independent stats. Today, I’d like to introduce you to the anti-Nolasco — Wade LeBlanc.

In 2009, the lefty struck out 5.83 batters per nine innings, issued 3.69 BB/9, and had a 36.2 ground ball rate in 46.1 innings pitched. LeBlanc’s xFIP (5.21) was blasé, but a combination of a low BABIP (.224) and high strand rate (78.6%) allowed him to post a 3.69 ERA.

This season, LeBlanc owns a 6.2 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, and a 37.7 GB% in 98.2 innings, with his BABIP regressing to an even .300. Yet the split between his ERA and xFIP remains humongous. Wade owns a 3.28 ERA, which is no doubt aided by pitching in a park that severely depresses doubles and HR production. But that still doesn’t explain the ERA/xFIP divergence. According to Baseball-Reference, LeBlanc’s ERA in a neutral park with 2010’s NL run-scoring level is 3.79, but his xFIP is 4.71. The major explanation for that dichotomy is that the 25-year-old has been the game’s greatest escape artist.

LeBlanc has stranded 85.7% of the runners that he has put on base, which is the highest mark among qualified major league starters. Has he pitched exceptionally well once runners reach base? Nope:

The difference was even more pronounced last season (albeit in a smaller sample) — a 4.85 xFIP with nobody on, and a 5.91 xFIP with men on base.

Most pitchers perform worse with runners on. LeBlanc’s walk rate with runners on base versus bases empty situations has increased somewhat less than the NL average, but his K rate in situations with men on base has fallen more than most. Here are LeBlanc’s strikeout/PA and walk/PA numbers with the bases empty and men on this season. The “Men On/Bases Empty” column is LeBlanc’s figures with men on divided by his figures with the bases empty.

Overall, LeBlanc’s K/PA and BB/PA figures are below-average as compared to the average NL pitcher.

LeBlanc’s walk rate with men on base has increased 27 percent compared to bases empty situations (the average NL increase is 34 percent). His K rate, on the other hand, has fallen nearly 19 percent with men on compared to when the bases are empty (the average NL decrease is 6.3 percent).

According to this formula developed by Dave Studeman, LeBlanc’s LOB rate should have been around 68.8% in 2009 and should be closer to 70.5% in 2010.

Wade LeBlanc is in a fantastic situation as a result of pitching in a cavernous park behind quality fielders. But eventually, he’s going to get himself into some jams from which he won’t be able to escape.