Author Archive

Free Agent Market: Third Base

Aramis Ramirez.

That is all.

O.K., there’s a bit more to the 2012 free agent third basemen, but not much. Let’s take a look.

Aramis Ramirez
The Chicago Cubs held a $16.5 million option on Ramirez for 2012 but it was voidable at Ramirez’s election. According to his agent, Ramirez has elected to test the free agent market.

Many analysts, including the best ones at this fine internet establishment, have written that Ramirez was the most productive third baseman in the National League in 2011. I disagree. Ramirez was second, behind San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval. Granted, Sandoval played in only 117 games to Ramirez’s 149. But Sandoval ended the season with 5.5 WAR to Ramirez’s 3.6, outplaying him both offensively and defensively. Luckily for Ramirez, though, Sandoval is not a free agent, which makes Ramirez the most productive and highly-coveted third baseman available this off-season.

Read the rest of this entry »


Brandon Inge’s Rare Feat

Brandon Inge has been a Detroit Tiger for life. The Tigers drafted Inge in 1998 and he made his major-league debut with the team three years later. Inge came up as a catcher but transitioned to third base in 2004, when Ivan Rodriguez landed in Detroit.

Inge’s defense at the hot corner has been consistently very good, according to UZR/150, aside from 2004, his first season there. And it was his defense that kept Inge in the Tigers lineup. Inge’s career slash is a paltry .235/.305/.388 with a career wOBA of .301 and wRC+ of 81.

This season, Inge couldn’t sustain even his low career offensive numbers. His defense suffered, as well. And so on July 20, the Tigers designated Inge for assignment. Most people, including manager Jim Leyland, thought it was the end of the road for the 34-year-old.

No other team showed interest. The Tigers still owed him about $7 million on the two-year/$11.5 million deal he signed before this season. Inge could have taken the money and gone home. But he didn’t.

Instead, Inge reported to the Toledo Mudhens, the Tigers’ AAA affiliate. In 29 games, Inge batted .287/.389/.519 and hit seven home runs. The Tigers recalled him in late August.

Inge has played in nine of the Tigers’ ten postseason games. In 18 at-bats through Thursday’s game, he’s hitting .333/.455/.556. In Wednesday’s game against the Rangers, Inge hit this game-tying home run off previously-unhittable Alexi Ogando in the seventh. Yes, the Tigers lost the game, but it wasn’t because of Inge. On Thursday, with the bases loaded and one out for the Rangers in the top of the sixth inning, Inge started the 5-3 double play to end the Rangers’ threat. The Tigers then scored four runs in the bottom of the inning to take the lead 6-2. The Tigers won the game, sending the series back to Texas, in no small part due to the efforts of Inge.

Inge’s rare feat?

Based on my research, Inge appears to be the only player in the past 10 years with more than five years of major-league service who was designated for assignment, then was recalled by the major-league team that sent him down and then went on to play a significant role in the postseason.

Let me explain a bit about my research, because figuring this out wasn’t easy.

Read the rest of this entry »


Replacing Ryan Howard At First Base

The news for Philadephia Phillies fans on Friday night was grim. By Saturday, the news was grimmer.

The Phillies were ousted from the playoffs after losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the Division Series. Ryan Howard made the last out of the game, grounding out to the right side. Howard barely made it out of the batter’s box on the play. He ruptured the Achilles tendon in his left leg while starting his run to first base and collapsed in a heap on the first base line as the Cardinals celebrated their NLDS victory.

Howard will undergo surgery to repair the Achilles tendon after the swelling subsides. Estimates on Howard’s recovery time range from six to eight months following surgery, meaning Howard could be ready for Opening Day 2012 or not until June. That’s a fair bit of uncertainty for the Phillies, who face a number of roster decisions this winter.

What should the Phillies do at first base while Howard recuperates?

Read the rest of this entry »


Ranking Ben Francisco’s 3-Run Home Run By WPA

Ben Francisco slugged a pinch-hit 3-run home run for the Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS Tuesday night. The home run was decisive as the Phillies beat the Cardinals 3-2 to take a two games to one lead in the best-of-five series. The specter of huge pinch-hits is ever present this postseason with the Diamondbacks in the playoffs for the first time under manager Kirk Gibson.

Gibson, of course, authored the most famous pinch-hit homer in the last 25 postseasons. An ailing Gibson, then with the Dodgers, slammed a walk-off, two-run jack off Athletics closer Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series. As Gibson hobbled around the bases making exaggerated arm pumps, announcer Jack Buck exclaimed, “I don’t believe what I just saw.”

At .870, Gibson’s home run has the highest WPA (Win Probability Added) of any postseason pinch-hit at-bat in the last 25 years. After the Phillies-Cardinals game Tuesday night, I wondered how Francisco’s pinch-hit at-bat ranked in WPA as compared to Gibson’s home run and other high WPA postseason pinch-hit at-bats dating back to 1988.

Here’s what I found.

Read the rest of this entry »


Did Philly Lead The NL To Rotation Dominance?

You’re familiar with the phrase “Everyone and their mother,” as in “Everyone and their mother wants Charlie Sheen to go away and never come back.” It’s an oft-used phrase that is often wrong–except when used like this: Everyone and their mother predicted the Phillies would have the best rotation in baseball in 2011. Well, almost everyone and their mother.

Everyone and their mother turned out to be right (ssshhh, don’t tell my mother she was right). By nearly every measure, the Phillies’ starting rotation dominated the majors in 2011: lowest ERA (2.86), lowest FIP (2.98), highest percentage of first pitch strikes (63.5), highest K/9 (7.88); highest K/BB (4.22), lowest WHIP (1.11), most complete games (18), most shut outs (7), and highest WAR (25.8).

What’s that you say about park and league-adjusted stats? No problem there. Phillies have that covered, too. First in the majors in ERA- (74), FIP- (77) and xFIP- (82). Pretty good for a team that plays half its games in Citizens Bank Park, a hitter-friendly park.

The Phillies were expected to be dominant and they were.

Who had the second-best rotation in 2011? Who made the Top 5? Did other National League rotations shine in 2011?

Let’s take a look.

Read the rest of this entry »