Did Philly Lead The NL To Rotation Dominance?

You’re familiar with the phrase “Everyone and their mother,” as in “Everyone and their mother wants Charlie Sheen to go away and never come back.” It’s an oft-used phrase that is often wrong–except when used like this: Everyone and their mother predicted the Phillies would have the best rotation in baseball in 2011. Well, almost everyone and their mother.

Everyone and their mother turned out to be right (ssshhh, don’t tell my mother she was right). By nearly every measure, the Phillies’ starting rotation dominated the majors in 2011: lowest ERA (2.86), lowest FIP (2.98), highest percentage of first pitch strikes (63.5), highest K/9 (7.88); highest K/BB (4.22), lowest WHIP (1.11), most complete games (18), most shut outs (7), and highest WAR (25.8).

What’s that you say about park and league-adjusted stats? No problem there. Phillies have that covered, too. First in the majors in ERA- (74), FIP- (77) and xFIP- (82). Pretty good for a team that plays half its games in Citizens Bank Park, a hitter-friendly park.

The Phillies were expected to be dominant and they were.

Who had the second-best rotation in 2011? Who made the Top 5? Did other National League rotations shine in 2011?

Let’s take a look.

Rounding out the Top 5 in ERA were the Giants (3.28), Dodgers (3.41), Rays (3.53) and Angels (3.59). A slight edge for the National League, but that’s to be expected given that the league lets pitchers get themselves out. When you look at FIP, it’s all senior circuit: Giants (3.38), Dodgers (3.64), Braves (3.65) and Cardinals (3.69).

This year, the Top 5 in K/9 were all in the National League: Giants (7.86), Brewers (7.78), Dodgers (7.67) and Braves (7.48). Low walk rates pushed the White Sox (2.87) and Mariners (2.82) into the Top 5 in K/BB and pushed out the Giants and Braves. The Giants, in fact, had the 24th worst BB/9 rate in the majors at 3.27 (and it wasn’t all Jonathan Sanchez’s fault).

That brings us to park and league-adjusted numbers, where we see some newcomers to the leaderboard. Looking at ERA-, the Rangers (85), Giants (88), Angels (89) and Rays (91) rank two through five after the Phillies. But with FIP-, the White Sox tie for second with the Giants and Rangers at 89, with the Angels and Yankees at 95.

The only other Top 5 finish for the White Sox rotation was in K/BB rate and yet they are second in the majors in FIP-. For the Yankees, no Top 5 finishes, save for first pitch strike percentage, and yet a rotation FIP- better than twenty-four other teams in the majors.

When we dig deeper we see that the White Sox’s home park of U.S. Cellular Field is one of the best ballparks in the majors to hit for power, inflating home run numbers for left-handed batters by 26% and for right-handed batters by 38%. New Yankee Stadium is even more favorable for left-handed power hitters, inflating home runs by lefties by 43%. According to StatsCorner, those are the three largest park adjustments for home runs in the majors in 2011.

Perhaps it’s not a big surprise, then, to find the White Sox rotation second in WAR with 20.2. OK, I’ll admit it. It’s still a surprise to me, park adjustments or otherwise. The rest of the Top 5 rotations in WAR are less of a surprise: Rangers (19.8), Angels (17.8) and Giants (17.6).

By most measures, the Giants had the second best rotation in the National League, followed by the Dodgers. But overall, the American League had more teams with rotations performing at the highest levels, park-adjusted or not. The Rays, Rangers, Angels and Mariners rotations excelled in traditional and advanced metrics, while the White Sox and Yankees rotations turned in valuable performances once you adjust for their home ballparks.

Just when the narrative had started to turn away from the American League being better at everything, the darn facts had to get in the way. The Phillies rotation is amazing, but there’s some pretty terrific pitching in the American League as well.