Author Archive

The 2009 Prospect Mine: Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers organization is still hurting in terms of depth, but the club added some advanced college arms in the 2008 draft, and they are expected to move quickly. The club does, though, have one of the top prep pitchers from the 2007 draft.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Jeff Larish, 26, had a solid college career but has moved slowly during his pro career and made his MLB debut at the age of 25. He hit .260/.306/.375 with a .115 ISO in 104 at-bats (40 games). His rates at the MLB level were 6.3 BB% and 32.7 K%, which are hardly encouraging. The first baseman’s MLB contact rate was just 73.4%, including a 43.2% contact rate at pitches outside the strike zone. Larish is a borderline quad-A player.

Dusty Ryan, 24, had an unexpectedly solid offensive season in 2008, but beware of flukes. In his first four pro seasons he hit 21 home runs. Last season, he hit 19. Even with his 2008 numbers figured in, Ryan’s career minor league line is .237/.326/.386 in 1,250 at-bats. His career strikeout rate is more than 30.0 K%. Defensively, his biggest strength is his arm and he threw out almost 50% of base stealers in 15 MLB games.

Outfielder Wilkin Ramirez, a former third base prospect, hit .303/.371/.522 with an ISO of .219 in 433 Double-A at-bats. He slugged 19 home runs and stole 26 bases (in 38 attempts). He is still rough around the edges with rates of 9.0 BB% and 31.9 K%. Defensively, he is pretty much limited to left field despite his speed.

A+/A Prospects:
Rick Porcello was the 27th overall pick from 2007 out of a New Jersey high school but he did not make his pro debut until 2008. Despite the late start, he jumped all the way to High-A ball and held his own. Porcello allowed just 116 hits in 125 innings. On the downside, his strikeout rate was just 5.18 K/9. The right-hander did have a nice walk rate for such a young player at 2.38 BB/9.

Speaking of No. 1 draft picks, Ryan Perry was nabbed in the first round of the 2008 draft and I discussed him here. Cody Satterwhite was another college arm drafted in 2008, who is expected to be on the fast-track in 2009. He’s a frustrating player – and has been since high school – because his results never match his talent, which includes a high-90s fastball. His secondary stuff is lacking, and that is one of the reasons why he’s been moved to the bullpen.

First baseman Ryan Strieby slugged 29 home runs in 2008 at High-A ball. The 23-year-old hit .278/.352/.563 with an ISO of .285. The ISO has increased for three straight seasons from .095 to .169 to his 2008 rate. With a walk rate of just 9.9 BB%, Strieby needs to be more patient. He struck out 24.0 K%.

The Tigers are promoting Cale Iorg, 23, aggressively even though he missed two seasons while on a Mormon mission. He hit .251/.329/.405 with 10 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 383 at-bats in his first full pro season in High-A ball. Iorg has a ton of athleticism but he is in need of experience. His 2008 rates included an 8.5 BB% and a 29.0 K%. Outfielder Casper Wells is another athletic player who broke out for half of 2008 after he jumped from A-ball to Double-A. It took him almost four years to get there, though. Wells hit 27 home runs and 25 stolen bases between the two levels last season. At Double-A, he managed a line of .289/.376/.589 in 270 at-bats. He posted a walk rate of 10.0 BB% and a high strikeout rate of 24.4 K%.

SS/R Prospects:
Casey Crosby was taken out of high school in the same draft as Porcello, but his career was slowed when he missed most of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The southpaw is talented and can reach 96-97 mph with his fastball. Unfortunately, his secondary stuff is lacking – especially the breaking ball. His change-up is a potential second plus pitch.

Up Next: The Cincinnati Reds

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.


The 2009 Prospect Mine: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers system is loaded with offensive talent – even after the trade for C.C. Sabathia last season, which included top offensive prospect Matt LaPorta. Unfortunately, the pitching depth is thin and the organization has traditionally had a very difficult time keeping top pitching prospects healthy; even current, young MLB pitchers Manny Parra and Yovani Gallardo have had more than their fair share of injuries.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Alcides Escobar could be in the Majors right now, if it were not for the presence of J.J. Hardy at shortstop. Escobar is a gifted fielder who will eventually shift the incumbent shortstop to third base, or possibly out of the city. There have been questions about Escobar’s ability to hit, but he managed a line at Double-A in 2008 of .328/.363/.434 with 34 stolen bases in 546 at-bats. The biggest weakness in his game right now is his lack of patience (5.4 BB%) and lack of power (.106 ISO).

I’ll keep this brief since I wrote a post on Mat Gamel not long ago. He has a chance to be the Brewers’ third baseman by mid-season, but his defense will not allow him to stay there for long. Gamel is likely ticketed for first base or right field.

Current big league catcher Jason Kendall is in the final season of his contract, and prospect Angel Salome could be ready just in time to fill Kendall’s shoes. Had he not been slowed down by injuries, Salome may have already secured a full-time gig. Last season in Double-A, the stout catcher hit .360/.415/.559 with 13 home runs and 83 RBI in just 98 games. It remains to be seen if Salome can show enough defensively to remain behind the plate, which could significantly hurt his future value.

Jeremy Jeffress has had some well-documented issues during his brief pro career. He’ll continue to get chances, though, because of his golden arm. Jeffress can touch the upper 90s with his fastball and also has a curveball that is a plus pitch at times. His change-up is lacking, so he may end up as a late-game reliever. He received a late-season promotion to Double-A in 2008 after spending much of the season in High-A ball where he allowed 65 hits in 79.1 innings, as well as rates of 4.65 BB/9 and 11.57 K/9.

Lorenzo Cain was originally drafted out of high school based on his raw athletic ability. He played in A-ball for much of his first four pro seasons, but he made it to Double-A in the second half of 2008 and even earned a brief, six-game promotion to Triple-A. Cain has 15-20 home run potential and could easily swipe 30 bases. In 2008 at Double-A, he hit .277/.363/.486 with six stolen bases and four homers in 148 at-bats.

A+/A Prospects:
Jonathan Lucroy, like Salome, is an offensive-minded catcher who has question marks surrounding his defense. Even though his work behind the plate is iffy and his arm is average, Lucroy threw out 45% of base stealers in 2008. Offensively, Lucroy has shown that he’s ready for Double-A in just his second full season. The former third-round pick split 2008 between A-ball and High-A. At the senior level, he hit .292/.364/.479 with a .186 ISO.

Outfielder Cole Gillespie is likely ready for the Majors after spending 2008 in Double-A and hitting .281/.386/.472 with an ISO of .190 and 17 stolen bases. He also showed good patience with a walk rate of 14 BB%. His strikeout rates have risen each of the past three seasons, from 18.3 to 21.7 to 22.1 K%. Gillespie is a corner outfielder defensively, but his bat profiles better in center, which will likely relegate him to a fourth-outfielder role at the Major League level.

The Cleveland Indians had to choose between infielder Taylor Green and outfielder Michael Brantley as the player-to-be-named-later in the Sabathia trade last season. The AL organization chose Brantley, and the Brewers were no doubt happy to keep Green on the payroll. The third baseman, though, will miss the first four to six weeks of the season after undergoing wrist surgery. Green hit .289/.382/.443 with an ISO of .153 in 418 High-A at-bats.

SS/R Prospects:
The club added three quality prospects in the 2008 draft. Prep pitcher Jake Odorizzi (32nd overall) posted a 3.48 ERA in 11 rookie ball games. Canadian Brett Lawrie (16th overall) had arguably the best prep bat in the 2008 draft (after Eric Hosmer) but his ultimate home defensively is up in the air, although he will begin his pro career as a catcher. Lawrie is confident and will move as quickly as his defense will let him. Cutter Dykstra, son of Lenny, (54th overall) had a solid debut and hit .271/.367/.438 with an ISO of .167 in 144 at-bats. He could move quickly for a high school player.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.


The 2009 Prospect Mine: Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox system is languishing at the bottom of the barrel in the American League, thanks in part to poor draft choices and a win-now mentality that has stripped the club of a number of key prospects. However, the Javier Vazquez and Nick Swisher trades have helped to restock the system a bit and keep it from challenging Houston as the worst system in the Majors. My biggest question, though, is how can other general managers even trade for a starting pitcher from Kenny Williams after his history of (allegedly) dealing damaged goods, time and time again?

AAA/AA Prospects:
Left-hander Aaron Poreda, a former No. 1 draft pick, is close to being Major-League ready, which is good news for a club that currently has Bartolo Colon penciled in as the No. 5 starter. Poreda split 2008 between High-A ball and Double-A. In 15 Double-A starts, the southpaw allowed 81 hits in 87.2 innings of work and also posted rates of 2.26 BB/9 (His control is better than his command) and 7.39 K/9. Personally, I see Poreda as a dominating late-game reliever with a mid-90s fastball, because he has yet to develop his secondary stuff.

Clayton Richard is another southpaw who has eyes on the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He relies on his secondary stuff (especially the change-up) more often than Poreda and averages out around 90 mph with his sinker. He was lit up in his MLB debut and allowed 61 hits in 47.2 innings. He also posted rates of 2.45 BB/9 and 5.48 K/9. Richard does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and has allowed just 23 home runs during the past three seasons.

I wrote about Chris Getz recently, so I’ll keep this brief. He has a solid chance of being the opening day second baseman for the White Sox, or at least on the bench.

Brandon Allen has massive power – the best in the system. The first baseman was originally drafted in the fifth round out of high school in 2004. He struggled to hit for average during his first three pro seasons but has taken huge steps forward in each of the past two seasons, positioning himself to eventually replace Jim Thome or Paul Konerko. Last season between High-A and Double-A, Allen slugged 29 home runs and maintained an average above .275. He’s also made strides in reducing his strikeout rates, with a respectable (for a power hitter) 26.8 K% at Double-A.

Cole Armstrong, 25, does not have a huge ceiling, but the organization is short on catchers and he’s close to being MLB ready after splitting 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. At the senior level, Armstrong hit .275/.310/.406 with rates of 3.5 BB% and 19.6 K%. He is a good defender, which will help him carve out a career as a back-up. His 2009 chances are hurt by the fact he hits left-handed (like No. 1 catcher A.J. Pierzynski).

A+/A Prospects:
John Ely, 22, had a nice 2008 season even though his ERA was 4.71. He allowed just 142 hits in 145.1 innings and posted rates of 2.85 BB/9 and 8.30. His FIP was 4.02. Ely had a rough July when batters hit .354 against him and his FIP was 6.04. He turned things around in August, though, and held batters to a .206 average. Ely has a low-90s fastball, a plus change-up and a good breaking ball. He should begin 2009 in Double-A.

Gordon Beckham was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2008 and is an offensive-minded shortstop. He signed late and appeared in just 14 games, but he hit .310 with three home runs in A-ball. Beckham also showed patience at the plate in a small sample size. After the regular season, the 22-year-old infielder lit up the Arizona Fall League with a line of .394/.468/.652 in 18 games. He hit .529 with runners in scoring position. Potentially, he could begin the year in Double-A.


John Shelby Jr.’s
2007 and 2008 seasons (in A-ball and High-A) were very, very similar – which can be good or bad depending on how you look at it. On the plus side, he hit right around .300 both seasons and also showed 15 home run power. He increased his stolen base total from 19 in 2007 to 33 last season. On the negative side, the 23-year-old prospect continues to be overly aggressive at the plate with walk rates in the past two seasons of 6.8 and 4.7 BB%. Defensively, he is an average outfielder at best, having been moved off second base, where he was below average.

Only 20, Dayan Viciedo will not step right in to the Major League roster like fellow Cuban Alexei Ramirez did last season. The third baseman will likely begin his career in High-A ball and could move up to Double-A around mid-season if the hype surrounding him is somewhat justified. He has plus-power potential, but there are concerns about his conditioning and drive.

The key to the Vazquez deal, Tyler Flowers could be a huge steal if he can remain behind the plate. I discussed the trade not long ago. Flowers should open 2009 in Double-A.

Jordan Danks, the brother of White Sox hurler John Danks, could have been a first-round draft pick out of high school, if he had not contacted teams and asked them not to draft him because he wanted to attend the University of Texas. Danks, though, never developed the power scouts had expected so he slid to the White Sox in the seventh round of the 2008 draft. He is a gifted defensive outfielder but it remains to be seen how well he will hit. Danks did manage to hit .325 in 10 A-ball games after signing.

SS/R Prospects:
The White Sox tend to favor a college approach to the draft so the prospects in the lower minors tend to be quite raw. Right-hander Dexter Carter is the best of the bunch, although he was a college draft pick pitching against much younger competition in rookie ball. He allowed just 44 hits in 68.2 innings and posted rates of 3.28 BB/9 and 11.67 K/9. He should begin 2009 in A-ball. Carter can touch 96-97 mph but his control is iffy and he could end up as a late-game reliever.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.


The 2009 Prospect Mine: St. Louis Cardinals

It’s amazing, really, how quickly this system has turned around from being one of the worst in baseball to having some very intriguing talent in the upper levels of the minors. As recently as 2005, the club had arguably the worst system in the game. Now, it’s easily in the upper half of the talent pool – when compared to the other organizations’ talent – and tops in the NL Central.

AAA/AA Prospects:
I’ve written about Colby Rasmus a few times in the past couple of months (Including this 2008 minor league wrap), so I will be brief. He is the top prospect in the system and is close to being MLB-ready. However, the club has a number of talented outfielders standing in his way right now although he could easily push them aside with an outstanding spring training.

I also wrote a recent article discussing the third-base situation in St. Louis, with incumbent Troy Glaus’ injury creating an opening for the first few months of the season. David Freese likely has the inside track on the job. Brian Barden is another option, although he could get a look at second base now that Adam Kennedy has been released. Talent-wise, 2008 No. 1 draft pick Brett Wallace is the best third-base option, and his bat is almost MLB-ready. However, his defensive abilities are shrouded in question marks and I just don’t think he’s ready to play third at the Major League level – yet. Long-term, he is a first baseman.

Prospects Chris Perez and Jason Motte both have a shot at opening the 2009 season as the club’s closer – although Ryan Franklin may have the inside track after he saved 17 games in 2008. Perez has been groomed as a potential closer since he signed out of the University of Miami in 2006. He saved seven in 41 games for the Cardinals last season. Motte is a converted catcher who can throw heat with the best of ’em. Despite his inexperience, he held his own during his MLB debut last season by allowing five hits, three walks and striking out 16 in 11 innings.

Jess Todd was a reliever in college but the organization stretched him out and he took to starting like he had been doing it his entire life. The former second-round pick pitched at three levels last season and finished the year at Triple-A. At that level, Todd allowed 19 hits in 22.2 innings with 11 walks and 20 strikeouts. He may need a little more seasoning after seeing his 2008 FIPs increase with each promotion, from 1.52 to 4.22 to 5.32.

There are a couple of other starting pitchers in the upper levels of the system who have the potential to help out in 2009. Clayton Mortensen gets overlooked at times, but the right-hander was selected 36th overall in the 2007 amateur draft and has put up solid minor league numbers (although he’s been a little too hittable). He split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. He struggled a bit at the senior level, after seeing his K/BB rate drop from 2.18 to 1.36. Adam Ottavino had a forgettable year after posting a 5.23 ERA (4.95 FIP) at Double-A. He also allowed 133 hits in 115.1 innings with a walk rate of 4.06 BB/9. Left-hander Jamie Garcia made his MLB debut in 2008, only to suffer an elbow injury and he’ll be lost for all of 2009.

With Yadier Molina behind the dish in St. Louis, the club doesn’t really need another catcher, but Bryan Anderson is on the cusp of making his MLB debut. The 22-year-old prospect has been a hit-machine in the minors, with a career average of .306 in four seasons and more than 1,200 at-bats. He hit .281/.367/.379 in 235 Triple-A at-bats after beginning the 2008 season in Double-A and hitting .388. Anderson, though, is not a great defensive catcher so being a back-up would not suit him, as it would allow his defense to get even rustier. He could get a look at second base (he’s fairly athletic for a catcher).

Daryl Jones’ baseball skills are finally catching up to his raw athleticism. The outfielder reached Double-A last season and hit .290/.409/.500 in 124 at-bats. Overall, he stole 24 bases and showed the potential to hit 20 home runs. He showed improved patience at the plate in 2008, which bodes well for his future since his speed will be his best attribute until he grows into his power. He could be ready for the Majors by late 2009 or mid-2010.

A+/A Prospects:
Peter Kozma was considered an advanced prep player when he was selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. His pro career has been solid but unspectacular and he currently looks like a future utility player. Kozma hit .284/.363/.398 in A-ball in 2008. He received a brief promotion to High-A and hit just .130 in 24 games.

Lance Lynn was a supplemental first round pick in 2008 and had a solid debut in short-season ball (1.65 FIP in six games) before finishing the season with two starts in A-ball. Lynn showed solid control at both stops and could move quickly in 2009; he may even start the year in High-A ball. He doesn’t blow the ball past hitters, so Lynn will need to rely on mixing his four pitches: a low 90s fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

SS/R Prospects:
An 11th round selection from the 2007 draft, you can add Adam Reifer’s name to the list of potential closers – although he’s further away than Perez or Motte. Reifer has battled injury problems but showed high-90s velocity in 2008. In short-season ball, Reifer smoked the younger opposition and allowed just 18 hits in 30.1 innings. He also posted a strikeout rate of 12.16 K/9, but struggled with his command: 4.45 BB/9.

Up Next: The Chicago White Sox

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.


The 2009 Prospect Mine: Minnesota Twins

The Twins organization is loaded with intriguing talent. Unfortunately, the club’s top prospects are mainly in the lower half of the system – which is made less disappointing by the fact that the big club already has a lot of young talent filtered throughout the roster. It’s definitely going to be a fun organization to watch in 2009.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Right-hander Anthony Swarzak, 23, struggled when he was asked to repeat Double-A and right-handed batters hit .311 against him. He improved significantly when he was promoted to Triple-A, although it was a smaller sample size (seven games compared to 20). Swarzak’s stuff is solid with a low 90s fastball and excellent curveball. The change-up remains a work-in-progress.

Brian Duensing’s ceiling is lower than Swarzak’s, but the left-hander is a little more consistent at this point. His strikeout rate is troubling at 5.00 K/9, and he’s never dominated lefties so a LOOGY role is unlikely. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A, and should help out as a middle reliever before long.

Jose Mijares is one frustrating player. The left-handed reliever has all the talent in the world (touches the high 90s at times, has two good breaking balls) but his attitude needs work. In his MLB debut in 2008, Mijares allowed just three hits and no walks in 10.1 innings. He has the potential to be the go-to guy in the pen.

A+/A Prospects:
Ben Revere caught a lot of people by surprise in 2008 by hitting .379 in A-ball. The former No. 1 draft pick has more power potential than you would expect from a 5’9” player. With 44 stolen bases and 10 triples in 2008, speed is his biggest asset right now and he needs to be more patient at the plate to increase his opportunities (7.4 BB%) on the base paths.

Wilson Ramos is one of the top young catchers in baseball – but he’s in the wrong organization… unless his presence finally convinces the Twins to move Joe Mauer out from behind the dish. Ramos, 21, is ticketed for Double-A in 2009. He has always hit for a good average and he also has power potential. Like many Twins prospects, he could stand to be more patient. Ramos is an average defender, with an above-average arm who led the league in throwing out base runners (43%).

Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt were both added in the 2008 draft out of college and should move quickly though the system. Like Revere in 2007, the Twins organization surprised a lot of people by taking Gutierrez as early as it did. He’ll move through the minors as a starter but many scouts project him as a reliever because he is basically a one-pitch pitcher with a killer sinker. Gutierrez also has an inconsistent slider and a developing change-up. Hunt was grabbed in the supplemental first round although he had more hype than Gutierrez. Hunt’s status was damaged by injuries in college. He struck out a lot of batters in his debut but really struggled with his command, posting a rate of 7.76 BB/9 in A-ball.

SS/R Prospects:
Aaron Hicks, 19, was the Twins’ first round pick in 2008 out of high school and was considered quite raw, although he’s loaded with athleticism. Hicks hit much better than expected in his debut (.318) and should open 2009 in A-ball. His 13.9 BB% was encouraging, especially for a Twins prospect.

Angel Morales, 19, is another player who is loaded with athletic potential. He was drafted out of Puerto Rico and showed more power than was expected, with 15 homers in 183 at-bats (.322 ISO). Morales, though, was repeating rookie ball and had a terrible strikeout rate at 39.3 K%. He definitely won’t hit .300 with that approach at higher levels, like he did in 2008.

Tyler Ladendorf, 20, did not have an impressive debut, but he should be considered a sleeper for 2009 after being a hit machine during his junior college career. He managed a line of just .204/.308/.293 but his walk and strikeout rates were encouraging.

Up Next: The St. Louis Cardinals


The 2009 Prospect Mine: Houston Astros

This post continues our pre-season look at the top prospects in each of the 30 Major League Baseball organizations. The Houston Astros’ minor league system is in the lower third in all of baseball, but the club had a promising draft in 2008, which has helped to replenish the system in the low minors.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Felipe Paulino was on the cusp of earning a full-time Major League gig in 2008 when shoulder woes sidelined him and he made just one appearance last season. It’s hard to know what to expect from Paulino in 2009, but he has allegedly hit 102 mph on the radar gun in the past. However, his strikeout rates have been up and down in his career, including 2006 and 2007 (6.48 and 8.84 K/9). If healthy, he could provide a much-needed jolt to the Astros’ pitching rotation.

A former sixth round pick out of Cal Poly, Bud Norris has shown improvements each and every season since being drafted in 2006. His 2008 season, though, was interrupted by an elbow injury, which did not require surgery. A starter in the minors, Norris projects as more of a reliever with a two-pitch repertoire that includes a 93-95 mph fastball (that can touch the upper 90s) and a slider. He could break camp at the Major League level in the bullpen with a nice spring.

Third baseman Chris Johnson split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A but had much more success at the lower level. He hit .324/.364/.506 with an ISO of .182 in 330 at-bats at Corpus Christi, but managed just a .218 average in 101 Triple-A at-bats. Defensively, he has a very strong arm but average range. Johnson needs a little more work in the minors but he should be able to supplant Aaron Boone at third base before long.

Brian Bogusevic’s story has been well documented, as a former No. 1 draft pick as a pitcher who converted back to a hitter in 2008 and thrived. He hit .371 in Double-A with an OPS of 1.003 and an ISO of .185. However, those numbers came in just 42 games, so the optimism should be tempered until Bogusevic, 24, has the chance to compete over the span of a full season.

Drew Sutton came out of nowhere in 2008 to earn consideration for Houston’s future opening at second base (Kaz Matsui isn’t capable of holding any promising player off for long). Sutton was a 15th-round selection out of Baylor University in 2004 and has moved quietly up the organizational ladder – that was until 2008 when he set the ladder on fire. At Double-A, he hit .317/.408/.523 with 20 homers and 102 RBI. He also stole 20 bases and posted a walk rate of 12.8 BB%. It was the 25-year-old switch hitter’s second season in Double-A, so the numbers may have been slightly inflated, but nonetheless he has potential as an offensive-minded second baseman. Beware the ghost of Brooks Conrad.

A+/A Prospects:

(Sounds of crickets chirping)

SS/R Prospects:
Catcher Jason Castro had a solid, but unspectacular, debut after being taken 10th overall out of Stanford University during the 2008 amateur draft. He had a very nice junior season in college, but his first two seasons were suspect, which is cause for a little concern given that he dominated for just one year. Regardless, Castro has all the tools necessary to succeed both offensively and defensively, if he continues to make adjustments. His path to the Majors, though, is currently blocked by former top prospect J.R. Towles, who still has potential despite his horrific 2008 season.

Ross Seaton was a great supplemental third round pick out of a Texas high school in 2008, especially considering he received some consideration in the late first round. It was widely expected that only a Texas-based organization could pry Seaton away from his college commitment. The 19-year-old right-hander appeared in just three games after signing and should spend most of the season in extended spring training and short-season ball. He has top-of-the-rotation upside.

Jordan Lyles did not have nearly the press that Seaton did, but he was drafted in the supplemental first round out of high school in 2008. He is on a much faster track than Seaton, as he made 15 starts last season and could potentially taste A-ball in 2009. Last season, Lyles allowed just 44 hits in 49.2 innings and posted rates of 1.81 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9 in rookie ball.

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins


The 2009 Prospect Mine: Pittsburgh Pirates

This post represents the first of 30 articles that will look at the top prospects in each organization. The posts will run for the next two months, leading up to the beginning of the 2009 minor league season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates organization actually has respectable depth in the upper two levels of the minor league system, although the club’s top prospect will likely begin 2009 in High-A ball.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is just about ready for The Show, despite failing to receive a September call-up in 2008 after spending the entire year in Triple-A. The organization has some depth with young, talented outfielders so McCutchen, 22, could conceivably head back to Triple-A in 2009 for a little more seasoning. Last season, he hit .283/.372/.398 with 34 stolen bases in 53 attempts. Speaking of outfield depth, meet Jose Tabata, who was obtained last season from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady trade. The talented, but raw, outfielder improved dramatically after the deal (from .240/.320/.310 to .348/.402/.562) and will begin 2009 in Triple-A at the age of 20.

Third baseman Neil Walker is a Pennsylvania native who was selected in the first round of the 2004 draft out of high school as a catcher. The subsequent move to the hot corner hurt Walker’s value, as did his struggles in 2008 at Triple-A, which included a .242 average and a walk rate of 5.4 BB%. He has Pedro Alvarez (see below) breathing down his neck. Starting pitcher Daniel McCutchen (no relation to Andrew) was also acquired in the Nady deal. He has proven himself in Triple-A and could fill in for the injured Jeff Karstens (another trade chip from the NYY deal). His ceiling is probably limited to that of a No. 3 starter.

A+/A Prospects:
Top prospects – and 2008 No. 1 draft pick (2nd overall) – Pedro Alvarez has already had a bumpy introduction to pro ball despite having yet to play in a minor league game – thanks to having Scott Boras as his agent. Despite the layoff, Alvarez could very likely begin the season in High-A ball and could be in Double-A before too long. It would not be a shock to see Alvarez in Pittsburgh by the end of 2009 or early 2010; the only player really standing in his way is Andy LaRoche, who hit .166 in 233 at-bats last season split between the Dodgers and Pirates.

A former 2006 No. 1 draft pick, Brad Lincoln missed all of 2007 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The pitcher returned for 2008 and did OK at two A-ball levels. His FIP was right around 4.00 and his strikeout rate was around 6.50 K/9. Both rates should improve as he distances himself from the surgery. Now it gets creepy. Bryan Morris was a 2006 first round draft pick who… missed the 2007 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. A right-handed pitcher like Lincoln, Morris had a slightly more inconsistent season but is two years younger and will likely be in High-A ball in 2009. Lincoln should begin the year in Double-A.

SS/R Prospects:
Outfielder Robbie Grossman was signed away from the University of Texas with a $1 million bonus despite falling to the sixth round of the 2008 draft. He is raw and athletic and hit just .188 in Rookie ball so he’s a long-term project. Quinton Miller, 19, was another high school player who fell in the draft but was given a lot of cash to forgo a college career. He did not pitch after signing and Miller should spend the first half of 2009 in extended spring training before pitching in Rookie ball.


Getz Could be Key to Keystone

There is a little bit of instability in the Chicago White Sox infield as the team prepares to head to spring training in advance of the 2009 MLB season. Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera are gone from the left side of the infield. Veteran infielder Juan Uribe also flew the coop. Incumbent second baseman Alexei Ramirez is expected to slide over to shortstop.

There is a gaping hole at second base and the club has attempted to address that by signing Colorado castoff Jayson Nix and trading for former Atlanta Braves prospect Brent Lillibridge. But the best option may be one that can be found in-house.

Chris Getz is not the most gifted baseball player on the field, but gritty second baseman are back in vogue, thanks to Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox (2007 AL ROY, 2008 AL MVP). That’s not to say Getz’s ceiling is anywhere near that of Pedroia’s. The 25-year-old was selected in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Michigan. He spent four seasons in the minors before getting a taste of Major League Baseball last season. In 10 games, Getz went 2-for-7 (.286).

Getz had his first taste of pro ball in A-ball after being drafted in 2005 and he hit .304/.407/.397 in 214 at-bats. That earned him a promotion to Double-A to begin 2006, which was also his first full minor league season. He struggled with the two-level jump and hit just .256/.326/.321 in 508 at-bats. Getz rebounded the next season, though, and hit .299/.382/.381 in 278 at-bats while repeating the level and also struggling with injuries.

The left-handed batter showed even more improvements in 2008 at Triple-A when he hit .302/.366/.448 with an ISO that almost doubled from 0.83 to 1.46. His rates were solid, including a 9.2 BB% and a 13.1 K%. Getz has also hit southpaws very well in his career, so there is no need to platoon him. He has a career batting average of .302 against left-handers and hit .319 against them in 2008.

Defensively, Getz’s arm is average, as is his range. He made just three errors in 61 games (.990 FP) at second base in Triple-A with a 5.07 RF/g. He also spent time at shortstop, third base and in the outfield at Triple-A, although he is definitely best-suited for second base at the Major League level – if playing every day.

Getz, perhaps in the No.2 hole, could certainly be a nice complement to the White Sox’ traditional plodding sluggers.


Looking for a Less Rocky 2009 for Morales

Pitching has been a long-term nightmare for the Colorado Rockies’ franchise, thanks to the thin air of Denver. The club’s history of poor pitching is slowly becoming a thing of the past for the Rockies. Aided in part by the humidor, the Rockies pitchers have gone from being one of the worst three teams in baseball each year in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) to middle-of-the-road (an average of 16th overall in the past three seasons) since the 2005 season.

It’s not all about the humidor, though. The pitching in Colorado has improved significantly and the club finally has some depth. Aaron Cook is an unlikely staff ace with his low strikeout rates (career 3.58 K/9) but his groundball tendencies make him the perfect pitcher for Colorado. Former No. 1 draft pick Jeff Francis was starting to learn the ins-and-outs of pitching in the park before being sidelined by shoulder woes. The club also developed workhorse Ubaldo Jimenez, who could become quite a pitcher if his arm does not fall off after walking 103 batters in 198.2 innings in 2008. The club also brought in Greg Smith (Oakland) and Jason Marquis (Chicago NL) during the 2008-09 off-season via the trade route.

One pitcher who should not get lost in the shuffle – despite his 2008 struggles – is Franklin Morales, the Rockies’ former No. 1 prospect. The 23-year-old southpaw posted a 6.39 ERA (5.58 FIP) and allowed 28 hits in 25.1 innings this past season. His control completely deserted him and he walked 6.04 batters per nine innings, while posting a strikeout rate of just 3.20 K/9. His control issues haunted him in the minors last season too. In 110.1 Triple-A innings, Morales posted a walk rate of 6.69 BB/9.

The Venezuelan native had a successful MLB debut in 2007 when he allowed just 34 hits in 39.1 innings. He posted a 3.43 ERA (3.80 FIP) and compiled rates of 3.20 BB/9 and 5.95 K/9. His groundball rate was 54.9%, compared to 40% in 2008.

Interestingly, Morales’ fastball lost about 1.5 mph between his stints in the Majors in 2007 and 2008. His change-up also added two miles per hour. Hitters were seven percent less likely to swing at his pitches outside the strike zone but they made contact with those pitches almost 20 percent more often.

His control issues are troubling, but Morales is still young and has a great arm for a southpaw. He also has a history of being his own worst enemy by over-thinking and over-analyzing things. The winter break from baseball may have been just what he needed. We’ll find out soon enough.


Twins Loaded with Pitching Talent

The Minnesota Twins organization has enviable depth when it comes to young pitching. The club already boasts a starting rotation that includes Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, and Francisco Liriano. Blackburn and Baker are the oldest pitchers at just 27 years of age.

Another youngster – perhaps more talented than any of the pitchers save for Liriano – should spend the majority of the 2009 season in Triple-A. Anthony Swarzak, 23, was originally selected in the second round of the 2004 draft out of a Florida high school. The right-hander immediately took to pro ball and has had success at every level in the minors.

Swarzak’s biggest speed bump in the minors came in 2008 at the Double-A level. In 20 minor league games, he posted a 5.67 ERA (4.42 FIP) with 126 hits allowed in 101.2 innings. He walked 3.28 BB/9 and struck out 6.73 K/9. After pitching more than 80 innings in Double-A in 2007, Swarzak’s struggles this past season may have been more about a lack of motivation than anything else. Once promoted to Triple-A, he made seven starts and allowed 41 hits in 45 innings. He posted just 2.80 BB/9 and struck out 5.20 K/9.

The big question marks about Swarzak include his lack of a reliable change-up, which could necessitate a relocation to the bullpen at some point. But his plus curveball and 91-94 mph fastball could allow him to thrive as a late-game reliever. Swarzak was also previously suspended for testing positive for a “recreational drug” so there are some lingering question marks about his make-up.

With a talented, young starting rotation already established at the Major League level, the Twins have time to be patient with Swarzak and allow him to mature in the minors – both as a pitcher and as a person. Many organizations in baseball would love to have that luxury.