The Mariners were the “luckiest” team in the majors last year. The combination of timely hits in key situations and a great bullpen earned them an incredible 33–19 record in one-run games and 90 wins total, but they couldn’t count on that same blueprint earning them success in 2022. But instead of hoping for clutch hits to squeak out wins, this year’s Mariners have one of the most potent offenses in the majors, leading all of baseball with a 129 wRC+, backed by the best walk rate and fifth-best strikeout rate in the majors. They’ve gotten great contributions from J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suárez, and Mitch Haniger, but the man leading the charge is Ty France.

During the Mariners’ opening homestand, France collected 18 hits, two doubles, four home runs, and drove in 15 runs. His slash line during those nine games: .474/.524/.842, good for a 309 wRC+ and AL co-Player of the Week honors last week (which he shared with Miguel Cabrera, newest member of the 3,000 hit club). On Saturday against the Royals, France collected five hits, scored three times, drove in five, and blasted a three-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to put a dagger in a Kansas City comeback attempt. The next day, he homered in his first at-bat and collected another two hits. It got so bad that the Royals simply intentionally walked him when he came up to bat first in the decisive 12th inning.

This guy flat out rakes. #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/1MSOVHJTir

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) April 25, 2022

Raking isn’t anything new for France. He put up a career .294/.389/.470 slash line (135 wRC+) in the minor leagues coming up through the Padres’ farm system and essentially forced his way onto the major league roster after batting .316/.401/.576 at Triple-A across 2018 and ‘19. But he struggled a bit in his first taste of the majors, slipping to just an 84 wRC+ in 201 plate appearances in ‘19, and was traded to the Mariners in August 2020 in the big Austin Nola deal.

Since then, France has been one of Seattle’s most consistent hitters. Last year, he posted a 129 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR as the Mariners’ everyday first baseman. An early wrist injury hurt his overall numbers a bit; from April 27 through May 13, he collected just three hits in 56 plate appearances. He went on the Injured List a day later and returned after the minimum stay, and from that point on, he’s been phenomenal. Combined with his hot start this year, he’s batted .317/.389/.492 with a 151 wRC+ in 571 plate appearances since May 24; that’s the fifth-best wRC+ among all qualified batters in the majors during that period. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a little over two weeks into the 2022 season, which means it’s time to start assessing the teams that have gotten off to a hot start and those that have struggled. It’s way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions yet, but there are some teams who have shown real improvements so far, and others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated. First, we take three most important components of a team — offense (wRC+) and starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by innings) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking which is then presented in tiers below.

No one can really compete with the Dodgers. They possess the best record and the best run differential in baseball, and their Pythagorean win percentage says they “should have” won an extra game too. Their offense has gotten off to a bit of a slow start with Mookie Betts and Justin Turner both mired in early slumps. Luckily, Cody Bellinger’s bat is finally showing signs of life after taking the last two seasons off; he blasted two home runs on Sunday afternoon in a 10–2 drubbing of the Padres. Los Angeles’ pitching staff, meanwhile, has allowed the fewest runs in baseball thus far, with a revitalized Clayton Kershaw leading the way. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Angels signed Michael Lorenzen this offseason, it was hard to say what to expect from him. A longtime member of the Reds’ bullpen for nearly his entire major league career, he entered his first time through free agency looking for an opportunity to start again; making that jump to the rotation came with all sorts of uncertainty. But after just two starts for his hometown team, the early returns have been promising.

The former 38th overall pick began his career as a member of the Reds’ rotation, making 21 starts during his rookie season back in 2015 but posting a 5.45 ERA and a 5.48 FIP and getting relegated to the bullpen by the end of the year. He enjoyed a bit of success in shorter outings the next year and wound up in that role for the rest of his time in Cincinnati. At various points during his time there, Lorenzen regularly expressed a desire to return to the rotation, but spring injuries often played a role in pushing him back to the bullpen. In 2016, it was a sprained ligament in his elbow; in ‘18, a shoulder injury. He was on track to join the rotation last spring until another shoulder injury derailed that plan again.

The fact that Lorenzen made it through spring training without an injury and actually made a start this season has to be seen as an accomplishment. Not only that, but his first outing against the Marlins was outstanding: two hits over six innings and a single run that scored on a Jesús Sánchez solo home run. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out seven. His next start was a much stiffer challenge against the Astros in Houston, where he lasted into the fourth inning but was done in by a lapse in command, issuing a walk and hit by pitch both with the bases loaded. He wound up allowing four runs on four hits and two walks in 3.1 innings of work, striking out two.

While the start in Houston didn’t go as well as his first, Lorenzen has shown some interesting changes to his pitch arsenal that could indicate some more success on the horizon. In his postgame comments after his Angels debut, he discussed his pitch profile:

“I worked really hard this offseason to get my stuff where it needs to be. It’s a lot more fun in the rotation. I’m able to use everything and set guys up certain ways for the next time through. It’s just more fun to do that instead of being limited. I have too many pitches to be limited in the bullpen, so I was just able to take advantage of my pitch profile.”

Even as a reliever, Lorenzen continued to use a full, six-pitch repertoire. He leaned on his four-seam fastball and cutter for the most part, but also sprinkled in a sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball. Read the rest of this entry »

With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer fronting their rotation, the Mets were theoretically spoiled for choices when picking an Opening Day starter. Or at least, they would have been if deGrom hadn’t been hurt and Scherzer hadn’t picked up a few minor injuries of his own during the spring, throwing off his schedule a bit. Of course, New York also traded for Chris Bassitt during the offseason; he was the Oakland A’s Opening Day starter in 2021. They’ve also got a healthy Carlos Carrasco, who might have taken on the role during his Cleveland tenure were it not for Corey Kluber. Thus, it was rather surprising to see Tylor Megill take the mound last Thursday night.

While the start was certainly an honor for Megill, his throwing schedule also lined up most closely with the occasion. “It fit where he was. Not necessarily his pitch count, but his work load and experience factor,” said manager Buck Showalter after picking him. It’s a fun bit of trivia for the history books, but after the pre-game pomp and circumstance, Megill’s performance met the moment. He dazzled over five innings of work, holding the Nationals scoreless, allowing just three baserunners and striking out six. The biggest revelation of the evening was a fastball that was suddenly sitting 96 mph and that touched 99 mph, no doubt aided by the adrenaline of the first inning. In his second start of the season yesterday, Megill held the Phillies scoreless over 5.1 innings, allowing just three baserunners and striking out five. It’s just 10 innings and 144 pitches, but it certainly seems as though Megill’s entire arsenal — and not just his heater — has taken a step forward this year.

An eighth round pick in 2018 out of Arizona, Megill peaked at 25th on the 2021 Mets prospect list. His fastball sat in the low-90s in college and in his first taste of pro ball. After the cancelled 2020 minor league season, he showed up to spring training last year regularly throwing 94 mph, and that velocity increase stuck when he made his major league debut in late June. Now his fastball is up another tick and a half. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back, baseball! After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.

First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) — and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these Opening Day power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. For just this run of rankings, I’ve used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. Read the rest of this entry »

The plight of the Los Angeles Angels is well known by now. Despite employing two generational talents in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, they’ve made the playoffs just once in the last 12 seasons. Even worse, they’ve had a winning record in just four of those 12 seasons, and haven’t finished above .500 since going 85-77 in 2015. It’s not for lack of trying either. They’ve signed plenty of big name free agents to massive contracts to try and get them over the hump. Those efforts haven’t paid off yet, however, and the latest veteran to get kicked to the curb before hitting free agency is Justin Upton, who was designated for assignment on Sunday with a year left on his contract.

Since 2011, the Angels have signed four free agents to contracts that are five years or longer, with four additional extensions of similar length. The track record for those signings has been pretty ghastly:

C.J. Wilson, Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, and Upton didn’t finish out their contract term with the Angels, while the jury is still out on Rendon; Mike Trout’s deals can comfortably be scored wins. Injuries cut Wilson’s career short while a combination of injury and off-field issues led the Angels to trade Hamilton just two years into his huge contract. Pujols’s production in Anaheim was a shadow of his career-defining tenure in St. Louis, though he did manage some late season magic for the Dodgers last year. He’ll finish out his career where it started. By signing all of these players to large, long-term contracts, the Angels were doing exactly what you’d expect them to do in their position: spend to supplement their established stars. Its unfortunate, then, that the majority of these contracts didn’t pan out, particularly when pitching remained such a consistent need. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday morning, the Blue Jays and Rockies agreed to a trade sending Randal Grichuk and cash considerations to Colorado, with Raimel Tapia and minor league infielder Adrian Pinto joining Toronto. Rob Gillies of The Associated Press reports that the amount of cash is just over $9.7 million, which accounts for nearly half of the remaining salary on Grichuk’s five-year contract. With this move, the Blue Jays get the left-handed outfielder they had been searching for, and the Rockies get another power hitter to plug into the middle of their lineup.

Grichuk signed that five-year extension (worth $52 million) after putting up 2.1 WAR in 2018, his first season in Toronto. He blasted 31 home runs the next year, but that power was the only positive aspect of his approach at the plate. Over the last three years, his offensive output has been nine percent below league average, and that’s despite an ISO that sits a hair above .200. His biggest issue has been getting on base at a regular clip. His walk rate has been remarkably consistent, sitting around 5.8% over the last six years, though it dipped to its lowest point since his rookie season last year. With a batted-ball profile focused on fly ball contact, his BABIP isn’t much better.

In the field, Grichuk has been a solid defender across all three outfield positions. Splitting his time between center and right field over the last few years, the advanced defensive metrics rate his work in the corner a little higher than up the middle. All three metrics were disappointed in his ability to cover enough ground in the field as the Blue Jays’ full-time center fielder in 2020. But moved over to right in ’21, he graded out as one of the better fielders at the position on a per-inning basis, accumulating 6 DRS and 5.5 UZR in just 330.1 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers have had a busy offseason. They’ve guaranteed more than half a billion dollars in new free agent contracts — by far the largest outlay in baseball — and made a major trade for a new starting catcher. Yet despite adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to vastly improve the top end of their lineup, and Jon Gray to anchor their rotation, the Rangers lacked for depth. So to address some of the lingering holes on their roster, they signed a handful of additional players over the last week. They inked Brad Miller to a two-year, $10 million contract on Thursday, and Garrett Richards to a one-year, $4.5 million deal on Sunday with a $9 million club option for 2023 and a $1 million buyout. They also signed Greg Holland, Charlie Culberson, Matt Carpenter to minor league contracts over the last week. Those five players add some much needed depth to their roster.

Miller, Carpenter, and Culberson all seem like additions to address the loss of top prospect Josh Jung, who was expected to challenge for the starting third base role in camp. He tore the labrum in his left shoulder in late February and underwent surgery to repair the injury, sidelining him for most if not all of the season. After trading Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the in-house options to replace Jung were Andy Ibáñez and Nick Solak, both of whom have shown at least some promise in the recent past. Bringing in some additional spring competition for the position provides the Rangers an opportunity to find the right fit in 2022.

Each of the players above can play multiple positions, giving the Rangers plenty of options to fill out their lineup. There isn’t room for all six of those players on the Opening Day roster, so the competition for those few spots will be fierce during the compressed spring. Read the rest of this entry »

The Braves re-signed one of the key members of their championship squad, inking Eddie Rosario to a two-year, $18 million deal with a club option for 2024. Acquired by the Braves on July 30, Rosario didn’t get into a game for his new club until August 28, but from that point on, he slashed .274/.333/.579 (135 wRC+) to help Atlanta win its fourth straight NL East title. He found an even higher gear once the calendar turned over to October, slashing .383/.456/.617 (182 wRC+) in the playoffs; he carried close to the entire offensive load in the NLCS against the Dodgers, earning MVP honors during that series. The Braves made two additional smaller moves on Wednesday, signing left-handed outfielder Alex Dickerson and right-handed reliever Tyler Thornburg to non-guaranteed contracts worth $1 million and $900,000, respectively.

Rosario probably won’t be able to replicate his late-season heroics over a full season in Atlanta, but he’s been a solid contributor throughout his career. In six seasons with the Twins, he posted a 106 wRC+ and 11.4 WAR, then signed a one-year deal with Cleveland after Minnesota non-tendered him early in the offseason. He struggled to a 86 wRC+ to start the year before being sidelined with an abdominal strain, then was traded to Atlanta in a clear salary dump right before the trade deadline.

Due to an aggressive approach at the plate, Rosario has always been prone to hot streaks and cold spells, but he did make some slight tweaks to curb his over-aggressiveness at the plate last season and also improve his contact quality:

Unsurprisingly, Rosario’s batted ball data was fantastic, but it’s reassuring to see that the changes he made to his plate discipline metrics carried over from his time in Cleveland. Overall, he was a little less swing-happy and managed to make better decisions when he did offer at a pitch. His strikeout rate sat right in line with his established norms over the past few years, but his walk rate hit the second-highest mark of his career. With an offensive profile that’s BABIP-dependent, these slight changes to his approach should help improve his floor when he does hit one of those cold streaks. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, the Brewers, buoyed by their phenomenal pitching staff, easily won the National League Central in what was their fourth consecutive postseason appearance. But those four playoff teams all had the same flaw, one that led to October frustration: a weak offense that struggled to score runs consistently. The Brewers 2018 roster was the last unit to post a wRC+ at or above league average (they were right at 100); since then, they’ve put up marks of 97, 89, and 91. To address those run scoring issues, the Brewers have been focused on adding some firepower to their lineup this offseason. They traded for Hunter Renfroe and Mike Brosseau before the owners’ lockout, and on Monday, they reportedly brought Andrew McCutchen into the fold. (The details of his deal have not been disclosed as of publication.)

From 2009-17, McCutchen made a name for himself as a member of the division-rival Pirates. Traded before the 2018 season, he spent time that year with the Giants and Yankees before signing a three-year, $50 million deal with the Phillies prior to the ’19 season. He accumulated 2.5 WAR during his Phillies tenure, a stretch that saw him deal with a torn ACL and the pandemic. Entering his age-35 season, McCutchen has clearly declined from his peak, but he should continue to provide solid production for the Brewers as they shore up their lineup.

Last season, McCutchen posted an almost aesthetically perfect .222/.334/.444 slash line that ended up being seven percent better than league average. A career 12.2% walk rate gives him a solid offensive floor and his power production bounced back a bit after a slight dip in 2020. His plate discipline is a clear strength that hasn’t deteriorated. His 18.6% chase rate was the seventh lowest among all qualified batters last year. He did just post the highest strikeout rate of his career, with a corresponding jump in his swinging strike rate (up to 10%). But those additional strikeouts weren’t the result of poor swing decisions; instead, he had trouble making consistent contact, particularly with two strikes. McCutchen struck out 43.6% of the time when a plate appearance reached a two-strike count, a huge jump from the 35% rate he had posted over the previous four years. Read the rest of this entry »