NEW YORK — In stark contrast to the proficiency with which he handled staff ace Luis Severino in the Yankees’ AL Wild Card win, pulling the right-hander after four electrifying (if wild) innings, manager Aaron Boone appeared to be caught flat-footed last night in Game Three of the AL Division Series against the Red Sox.

Well equipped to handle Severino’s heat, the Boston lineup — featuring four players who didn’t start Game Two — hit scorcher after scorcher off the 24-year-old righty through the first three innings, building up a 3-0 lead in the process. By the time Boone came out of the dugout, three batters into the fourth inning, he was too late. The pitcher to whom he turned offered little relief, too. The resulting seven-run outburst broke the game open, paving the way for the Red Sox to humiliate the Yankees 16-1, the most lopsided postseason loss in the franchise’s history and one that pushed them to the brink of elimination in the best-of-five series.

The small fraction of the 49,657 attendees who stuck around to the bitter end witnessed not only that bit of history but another, as well, as Red Sox second baseman Brock Holt became the first player ever to hit for the cycle in a postseason game. The coup de grâce came in the form of a two-run ninth-inning homer off Austin Romine, normally the Yankees’ backup catcher but here just the second position player ever to pitch in a postseason game.

Read the rest of this entry »

With its assortment of winner-take-all, best-of-five and best-of-seven series, playoff baseball is inherently small-sample theater. Obviously, the wins and losses mean a whole lot to the teams and their fans, but there’s danger in ascribing too much meaning to the numbers that underly them given the circumstances. Nonetheless, we can’t help but notice certain trends, and wonder how they may connect to what we spent six months observing over the course of the regular season. While far from comprehensive, here are a handful of things that caught my eye through the first four days of Division Series play.

Astros vs. Indians: Nearly Hitless in Houston

Through the first two games of their Division Series, the Indians have been almost completely stifled by the Astros’ pitching. In Game 1, they didn’t get their first hit off Justin Verlander until Yan Gomes‘ single to lead off the sixth inning. In Game 2, they didn’t collect a hit after Melky Cabrera‘s infield single off Gerrit Cole in the fifth. In all, they’ve totaled just six hits, which puts them in jeopardy of having the fewest in a Division Series if their bats don’t perk up in Game 3. Likewise, for Division Series records for fewest total bases; they currently have nine, with Francisco Lindor’s Game 2 homer, which briefly gave them a 1-0 lead, their only extra-base hit. Here are the lowest totals for hits in a three-game ALDS or NLDS:

And for total bases:

Read the rest of this entry »

When Charlie Blackmon was double-switched out of Tuesday night’s NL Wild Card game in the bottom of the eighth inning, immediately after the Cubs tied the game and the Rockies put in Wade Davis, it wasn’t hard to miss just how limited Colorado’s offense is. With their season on the line, the next nine hitters that manager Bud Black sent to the plate from that point were as follows:

Valaika, pinch-hitting for Davis in the 10th, gave way to pitcher Seung Hwan Oh, who departed in the 11th in favor of Chris Rusin via a double-switch that removed Desmond and brought in McMahon. Scott Oberg followed Rusin in the 12th, double-switched out in a move where Wolters replaced Butera. That Wolters ultimately collected the game-winning hit in the 13th owes something to the position that Cubs starter-turned-reliever Kyle Hendricks was forced into under the circumstances, but the fact that he came through, despite the meager prospects for doing so, is both Very Baseball and why the Rockies lived to fight another series. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — It was a nice, tight AL Wild Card Game until Fernando Rodney showed up. Through five-and-a-half innings, the Yankees led the A’s 2-0 on the strength of a two-run first-inning homer by Aaron Judge off opener Liam Hendriks and an effectively wild four innings from Luis Severino, backed by a pair of dominant frames from Dellin Betances. The Oakland lineup had managed just two hits to that point while striking out 10 times, yet the A’s were still in the game thanks to the four scoreless innings they got from the two pitchers who followed Hendriks — namely, Lou Trivino (who matched his season high with three innings) and Shawn Kelley. A’s manager Bob Melvin, who had elected to bullpen his way through the game, had another decision to make with Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton due up for the sixth.

He chose poorly. The much traveled 41-year-old Rodney, who had been acquired from the Twins on August 9, had not pitched particularly well for the A’s, turning in a 3.92 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 20.2 innings; in September, he was rocked for an 8.38 ERA while walking 10 in 9.2 innings. Melvin literally had half-a-dozen alternatives upon which to call for what might be the most daunting and important stretch left on the table. Nobody would have raised an eyebrow if he’d tabbed Jeurys Familia, Yusmeiro Petit, or rookie J.B. Wendelken, all of whom fared better than Rodney in September.

Rodney got a called strike on a first-pitch sinker, but his second offering was doubled down the right-field line by Judge. Two pitches later, Hicks doubled to center field, expanding the Yankees’ lead to 3-0. A wild pitch sent Hicks to third base as Stanton stepped in, and Melvin had no choice but to pull him and call upon Blake Treinen to save not the game but the season.

Read the rest of this entry »

This year’s AL Wild Card Game will be a battle of competing philosophies, at least when it comes to the choice of starting pitchers. On Tuesday at Yankee Stadium, the opposing managers announced their picks for Wednesday night’s game. The Yankees have decided to remain old-school, with manager Aaron Boone tabbing 24-year-old righty Luis Severino, an All-Star who despite second-half struggles finished fourth in the league in WAR (5.7) and in a virtual tie for fifth in FIP (2.95) — and one whose early exit in last year’s Wild Card Game pushed the Yankees into a bullpen-oriented approach anyway. As for the A’s, a club whose rotation has has lost staff ace Sean Manaea and five other starters to season-ending surgeries, manager Bob Melvin is going the new-school route, with 29-year-old righty Liam Hendriks as his opener — a first of sorts. In eight September starts, Hendriks threw a combined 8.2 innings.

Together, the choices offer something of a callback to a year ago. Heading into the AL Wild Card game, then-manager Joe Girardi was ambivalent about the possibility of saving Severino for a potential Division Series Game One and relying upon his wealth of dominant relievers to face the Twins. “You could do that but that’s not something you’ve done during the course of the season,” Girardi told reporters. “And we have some starters who are pretty qualified to make that start… If you start doing crazy things, things guys aren’t used to, then I’m just not comfortable doing it. You want to keep it as normal as possible.”

Despite Girardi’s reservations, it was clear that the Yankees were built for such a scenario thanks to general manager Brian Cashman’s July 19 (re)acquisition of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to add to a bullpen that already included Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances. “A veritable clown car of effective righties who can miss bats and take over before Twins batters get too familiar with Severino,” is how one wag put it.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is the seventh and final installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here. And if you’ve been following along with this series, here and on Twitter, many thanks!

Pop the champagne! Team Entropy has done it — or rather the Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Rockies have done it — producing an unprecedented level of end-of-season chaos in the form of two Game 163 tiebreaker games that will be played on Monday afternoon. The 1pm ET game between the Cubs and Brewers (both 95-67) in Chicago will decide the winner of the NL Central, which will also become the top seed in the NL; the loser will host the Wild Card game on Tuesday night. The 4pm ET game between the Dodgers and Rockies (both 91-71) in Los Angeles will decide the No. 2 seed in the NL, which will face the Braves (90-72) in the Division Series, while the loser will be the road team for the Wild Card game.

Before all of that transpires, it’s worth taking a moment to appreciate what just happened. The Cubs, who have held at least a share of first place in the NL Central since July 13 and had sole position from August 1 through September 28, had a 3.5-game lead on the Brewers as of September 18, but went just 6-5 thereafter, including Sunday’s win. The Brewers, who held a share of first place in the division for all but one day from May 13 to July 13, were six back as of August 28, before winning 22 of their final 29, including nine of their last 10 — and all of their final seven — to wind up tied.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zack Greinke’s final start of the 2018 season was a tour de force, one that knocked his former team, the Dodgers, out of first place in the NL West heading into the season’s final weekend. The going-on-35-year-old righty survived a rocky beginning and pitched well, drove in the go-ahead run, tormented longtime nemesis Yasiel Puig as baserunner and a pitcher, and even made a nifty fielding play, albeit one that ultimately didn’t count. It was a fitting capper to a very good season in which Greinke made his fifth All-Star team and delivered solid — but not exceptional — value given his massive contract. He couldn’t singlehandedly pitch the Diamondbacks into the playoffs, and he isn’t likely to receive any Cy Young votes, but by staying healthy and pitching at a high level, he gave his chances at Cooperstown a considerable boost.

It’s that last topic that brings me to this post, because multiple readers have asked for it in some context. I’ve touched upon the cases of several of Greinke’s peers this season, such as Felix Hernandez (here), CC Sabathia (here) and Justin Verlander (here). As we’re about to spend the next five weeks absorbed in postseason baseball, it seems like a good time to check in.

But first, let’s appreciate the resiliency and athleticism Greinke displayed on Wednesday night. Peppered for seven hits from among the first 12 batters he faced, he managed to limit the damage to two runs thanks in part to a double play off the bat of Joc Pederson that ended the second inning and a diving stab by shortstop Nick Ahmed that snared Puig’s bases-loaded, 99.9 mph line drive to end the third. That out was part of a stretch in which Greinke retired 10 of the final 12 batters he faced, with a Chase Utley walk and a Cody Bellinger infield single the only blemishes. Ballinger’s single followed a grounder up the first base line that Greinke — a four-time Gold Glove winner who has seven Defensive Runs Saved to his credit this year — gloved and then flipped to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in time for what would have been an out had the ball not been ruled foul:

On the other side of the ball, in the bottom of the second inning, as starter Ross Stripling coughed up the Dodgers’ early 2-0 lead, Greinke stroked an RBI single up the middle to plate Nick Ahmed with Arizona’s third run. He took second on a Ketel Marte single, and then tagged and went to third on an Eduardo Escobar liner to Puig:

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

This is the fourth installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here.

The past couple of days have been very, very good ones for Team Entropy, at least in the NL (all five playoff teams in the AL have been determined). With the Cubs (now 91-66) losing back-to-back games to the Pirates while the Brewers (91-67) beat the Cardinals (87-71) twice, the top two teams in the NL Central are separated by just half a game heading into Wednesday evening. The two losses have dropped the Cardinals half a game behind the Rockies (87-70) in the race for the second NL Wild Card spot, while the resilient Rox, who have won five straight since being swept by the Dodgers (88-70) last week, are just half a game out of first place in the NL West. Five teams fighting for four playoff spots in three races, separated by three half-game margins. It’s that simple — and that complex.

The half-game stuff will resolve itself one way or another on Thursday, when the Cubs and Rockies both play (the last of a four-game set against the Pirates for the former, the first of a four-gamer against the Phillies for the latter) while the Cardinals and Dodgers are idle. After that, every team will have three games remaining, with the Cubs hosting the Cardinals, the Rockies hosting the Nationals, the Brewers hosting the Tigers, and the Dodgers visiting the Giants.

The current iteration of our playoff odds ties page shows a 23.9% chance of a tie in the NL Central after 162 games, with a 19.8% chance of a tie in the West and a 26.4% chance of a tie in the Wild Card race. Given all of that, it’s worth a quick review of how this works, but let’s start with the latest iteration of my Big Board, showing the head-to-head records of the relevant teams.

Let’s start with the NL West, where things are relatively simple. If the Dodgers and Rockies wind up tied after 162 games, the two teams would play a tiebreaker at Dodger Stadium on Monday, October 1, on the basis of Los Angeles’ 12-7 season series advantage. The winner would be the division champion, the loser a potential Wild Card team, with that Game 163 result having no impact in such a determination.

Read the rest of this entry »

This season can’t end soon enough for the Orioles, whose 111 losses match the 2004 Diamondbacks and 2013 Astros for the most defeats by any team since the Tigers lost 119 in 2003. While Tuesday night’s postponed game against the Red Sox — one that carries no implications for the playoffs, given that the Boston has clinched the league’s best record — will be made up as part of a day/night doubleheader at Fenway Park on Wednesday, the least that we can hope for is that Chris Davis‘ season is done.

You may recall that Davis, the all-or-nothing slugging first baseman who has belted as many as 53 homers in a season (2013) and struck out as many as 219 times (2016), got off to such a dreadful start that on June 15, I wrote that he might be having the worst season ever, at least as far as FanGraphs’ measurements go. Through the Orioles’ first 67 games (of which he had played 57), he had “hit” .150/.227/.227 for a 24 wRC+ and “produced” -1.9 WAR, putting him on pace for somewhere between -4.6 and -4.7 over a 162-game season, depending on the rounding — lower than any player in the annals.

The same day that my piece was published, the Orioles announced that they had benched Davis — who at that point hadn’t actually played since June 11 — indefinitely in an effort to pull him out of his slide. He ended up sitting for eight games, and homered in the second plate appearance of his return, off the Braves’ Sean Newcomb on June 22. The gambit worked, in that he generally wasn’t as bad after the benching as before; in fact, he rarely scraped bottom to the same degree:

Read the rest of this entry »