Do you remember last offseason? Last offseason, it seemed like Major League Baseball had two primary goals. One, it wanted to make the game move faster. And two, it wanted to do something about the ongoing drop in run-scoring. They didn’t really have a plan in mind, but they said it was a thing they were going to monitor. Last September, runs scored per nine innings dropped below 4 for the first time this millennium. And last year, also for the first time this millennium, there was a month with a league-wide OPS below .700. Actually, there were three of those months, in just a four-month span. Offense was going down; everyone was aware. Baseball needs a certain minimum level of offense to survive.

There’s your setup. This year, to some extent, baseball has succeeded in trimming unnecessary delays. The game does go faster, even if it’ll never go fast. And then there’s the matter of run-scoring. Here’s one plot, of year-to-year R/9 averages:

Hey, look, a little rebound. Relative to last year, this year is up 0.21 runs per nine, getting back closer to 2012 levels. That’s interesting on its own. But this gets more interesting the closer you look.

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Hello. There is still regular-season baseball taking place, even literally right now, but I am an impatient person. So, here’s a post about the year in projections, even though the year isn’t finished. The year is basically finished, and that’s good enough for me. We could re-visit in a month, but I don’t know if I’ll see the point.

You know, at least anecdotally, that it hasn’t been the best year for team projections. We had the Rangers projected as one of the worst teams in baseball, and they’re currently leading their division. We had the Twins projected as one of the worst teams in baseball, and they’re still alive in the wild-card race. We had the Royals projected as just about a .500 team, and they’ve got the best record in the American League. Then there are the Mariners, and the Red Sox, and so on and so forth. It seems like it hasn’t been a banner season for the numbers.

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There was a time this season when it looked like Blue Jays infielder Devon Travis would have a serious case for winning the American League Rookie of the Year award. What that is, more than anything else, is a reminder that the regular season is really super long, but you can say this much — a heck of a race has emerged. Though many are understandably more focused on the games at hand than the end-of-season awards, this is a special class, and at the top you’ll find the Indians’ Francisco Lindor, the Astros’ Carlos Correa, and Miguel Sano of the Minnesota Twins.

There are others. Of course there are others. There have been more than three good rookies in the AL, and I don’t mean to take anything away from anyone, but barring a complete surprise, this is going to come down to that core group. Lindor has helped Cleveland try to make a desperate playoff run. Correa has helped Houston stay in a spot to advance. And Sano has helped keep the improbable Twins alive.

Now, if you take those three, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to take the shortstops, Lindor and Correa, first. A right-thinking person might well rank Sano in third, were the voting to take place today. Most simply, Sano has played in about 20 fewer games. He’s not about to catch up, and that’s an eighth of a whole season, which matters when you’re talking about guys who haven’t been up since Opening Day. Voters tend to prefer a mix of both quality and quantity.

And Sano, for the most part, has been a DH. He’s been a hell of a DH! Really good DH. But it’s a DH against two shortstops, and there’s no more important position than shortstop, save perhaps for catcher, which is a whole other weird thing. Correa’s been a fine defensive shortstop. Lindor’s been an outstanding defensive shortstop. Their bats have been strong, too, so it’s not just an appeal to defense. Lindor and Correa have well-roundedness in their favor. Sano’s more of a one-trick pony.

He’s been phenomenal at that one trick.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.

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It would be easy to argue Anthony Rizzo hasn’t gotten better. It wouldn’t even be an insult — last year’s version of Rizzo was super good. Not many people could improve on that. The wRC+? Down, from 155 to 147. The defense remains above-average. Rizzo seems like the same player. And he is, as a matter of fact, still quite similar.

But it’s also pretty easy to argue Rizzo’s taken a bit of a step forward. He’s given back nothing in terms of power. He’s given back nothing in terms of walks. He’s trimmed his strikeouts by 20%. The only reason his numbers aren’t up is BABIP, and, you know how that goes. Additionally, there’s this — there are 226 players who have batted at least 250 times in each of the last two years. Here are this year’s biggest increases in average fastball velocity seen:

• Anthony Rizzo, +1.5 miles per hour
• Justin Smoak, +1.2
• Chris Coghlan, +1.1
• Yoenis Cespedes, +1.1
• Cody Asche, +1.0

There’s not a perfect relationship between fastball velocity and pitcher quality, but overall, velocity correlates well with effectiveness. So what this suggests is that, this year, compared to last year, Rizzo has faced stronger opponents. Stronger opponents, with similar overall numbers and a reduced strikeout rate? That sure seems like a better player.

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You’re a bright, available general-manager candidate. Not only that, but you’ve also scored a bunch of interviews. Congratulations! There are six teams out there that appear to be looking for a new GM, and you’re going to talk with all of them. Even the Marlins, who are super weird about everything. You know you’re ready. You know you’re prepared, and you feel pretty good about every individual chance. You don’t know how the teams are going to feel about you, but you feel like you should arrange your own priority list. Where would you like to go the most? Where would you like to go the least?

I should mention, you’re extremely flexible. Perhaps you knew that about yourself. It doesn’t really matter the city in which you end up employed. You love the beach, you love beer, you love hiking, and for some reason you love traffic (listening to podcasts?). And besides, you’re so devoted to your potential future job that you don’t anticipate all that much downtime anyhow. You’re either single, or your very understanding partner is like, “sure, anywhere’s good.” You evidently have family all over the place. Varying costs of living? Not on your radar! All you care about is that you make enough, which you will. You are stupidly easy to please. The specific job here is the only thing that matters. It’s the entire basis of the decision.

So, you’re looking at six interviews. Six possible GM positions. Which opening do you find most desirable? It’s not an easy choice, is it? But, make the choice. Make the choice! It’s one of your very favorite things to do, making choices. You make choices in your spare time. Here is a choice, to make.

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It’s mostly a matter of aesthetics. A little bit of pride, but, for the most part, an out is an out, if you did nothing wrong. Batters make outs most of the time, especially if the batter’s name is Trevor Cahill. The Cubs, presumably, aren’t bothered that Cahill made an out in the fifth inning on Tuesday. They would’ve expected as much, and if anything, they’d be happy about his hitting a line drive. But ultimately, Cahill was thrown out by Gregory Polanco, and he was thrown out at first base, despite his quality contact. Maybe even in part because of his quality contact. Cahill found himself the victim of a 9-3 putout, and though Cahill didn’t make any mistakes, it’s naturally the sort of play that generates attention. It can’t not be dwelt on.

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Let’s see, what are some of the current baseball headlines? With the Mets, Yoenis Cespedes is performing like an MVP candidate (for crazy people). Johnny Cueto’s season has taken a nasty turn in Kansas City. J.A. Happ has been a wonderful surprise find for the Pirates. Troy Tulowitzki might not play for the Blue Jays for a little while, but even the healthy version was offensively under-performing. Carlos Gomez hasn’t quite looked like himself. Cole Hamels hasn’t quite looked like himself. Maybe these aren’t all the biggest headlines in baseball, but they are at least things that are happening.

And there’s something all those players have in common: they’ve all very recently switched leagues. Some went AL to NL, some went NL to AL, and while the league switches don’t explain everything, you have to think they’re some kind of factor. In that, they can’t be considered irrelevant. Because, once again, the evidence points to the American League being the superior league. This isn’t anything new. Rather, this just continues a trend, a trend that’s lasted for more than a decade.

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Apologies for walking on trodden ground. None of what’s below is new. Many of you already know everything in here, but I feel like this is a good opportunity to review why our position is our position. I’ll do my best to keep this simple and short. Just like all the world’s best analysis!

Over the last little while, I’ve written a few things about Clutch. The specific stat might be difficult to explain to the average fan, but the idea is a basic one. Teams with high Clutch scores have had really good timing. Teams with low Clutch scores have had really bad timing. Timing is important! This explains a lot of the difference we see between actual wins and BaseRuns wins, which you can just think of as “expected wins.” This year, the five most clutch teams in baseball so far have beaten their BaseRuns win total by a combined 45. The five least clutch teams in baseball so far have fallen short of their BaseRuns win total by a combined 43. It’s hugely important, and this isn’t a one-year phenomenon.

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Even if you’re not a Boston Red Sox fan, you’re probably familiar with the Xander Bogaerts story. Big-time top prospect. Shortstop who has power. Pretty good plate discipline. Did some nice things right after his debut. Got off to a strong start in his first full season. Then: the collapse. I don’t need to give you the numbers — just imagine really terrible numbers. You’re there! So went Bogaerts, prior to his 2015.

This, though, has been a year of far more consistency. And far more promise.

It’s also been a year of change. Of significant change. Of major super massive change. We talk about players making adjustments all the time, but seldom do players make adjustments as big as Bogaerts has. If you’ve been paying attention, this isn’t exactly anything new. Owen hit on some of this in June. A player like Bogaerts, on a team like the Red Sox, doesn’t make a big change without a bunch of people noticing. But it’s one thing to notice what’s happened. It’s another to understand how dramatic this is.

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