Author Archive

Umpires are Improving

Fact: one of the most exciting areas of study right now is catcher defense, and catcher pitch-framing. A little bit of the shine is off, but we’re still making discoveries, and the whole thing is exciting because at last we’re able to put some numbers to something that’s long been suspected or known. Previously, we were left with guesswork and anecdotal evidence. Now we have an understanding of who’s good and who’s not good, and though it’s all still evolving, more and more people are aware of it, and more and more people are talking about it.

Yet conversations about pitch-framing are seldom just about pitch-framing. Practically every time it comes up, the conversation turns to whether or not this ought to be left to skill. Sure, some catchers receive better than others, and it can make a meaningful difference. But why should it be that way? Why can’t umpires just call consistent strike zones for everybody? Why can’t we just have automated, perfect strike zones, to even the playing field? And so on and so forth. It’s exciting that we’ve identified pitch-framing as a talent, but people are split on whether or not they want this talent to keep having an effect.

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On Spring Training Game Pace

As the resident FanGraphs Game Pace Cares-A-Lot-About-er, I know it can be weird to talk about pace and watchability, because to prefer a faster pace could be interpreted as not really liking baseball that much. One could argue that a “true fan” cares only about the outs and the score and minds not the speed at which the conclusion is approached. But I know I can’t help what I care about, and I care about things like pace and duration. As such, I’ve gotten to wondering about how spring-training speed matches up with regular-season speed. Are the games this time of year longer? Are they shorter? Are they exactly the same? If there are differences, what might they mean?

So far in 2013 spring training, at this writing, 83 games have been completed. That’s not a whole lot of games, but that’s a meaningful sample of games, and it’s what I’ve examined. In every official MLB.com game box score, the length of the game is displayed toward the bottom. I’ve gone through and compiled all the data and performed some elementary math on it, as you do. As a potentially unwelcome spoiler alert, the results are not astonishing.

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How Much Better Could Justin Masterson Be?

The other day, the Cleveland Indians announced that Justin Masterson will be their starter on Opening Day, barring some sort of injury. One might consider this damning with faint praise, as the Indians aren’t even necessarily ankle deep in proven quality starters, but what this provides is an opportunity to talk a little bit about Masterson, and what he is, and what he could be, maybe. Masterson stands to be important if this year’s Indians are to make a run for the playoffs. Masterson stands to be in the majors for a while yet, as he’s only 27 and as he’s demonstrated that he can throw 200 reasonable innings.

We have a pretty good idea of the Justin Masterson skillset. He’s got a big, sweeping motion and he leans heavily on a low-90s sinker. Sometimes he’ll threaten to go entire games without throwing anything else. Masterson keeps the ball on the ground, he strikes out about one batter for every six, and he issues the occasional walk. Last year, he posted about the same FIP as Jon Lester and C.J. Wilson, which is good company at least in terms of name value. Masterson’s ERA was elevated, but, ERA.

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Ricky Romero Sinking and Not Sinking

A preface:

(1) The Blue Jays are of tremendous interest this year, after having spent the offseason adding R.A. Dickey and the Marlins. Many expect that the Jays will win their division for the first time since 1993. At the very least, if they’re not favorites, they’re close to it.

(2) Ricky Romero is of tremendous interest, because what the hell happened?

(3) We’re suckers for anything having to do with PITCHf/x and player-on-player analysis. What’s that? Players making use of PITCHf/x data in an attempt to improve themselves or others? A FanGraphs post is all but obligatory.

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Domonic Brown Good News/Bad News

Everybody’s aware that, by and large, spring-training results are meaningless. Not everybody always acts like it, but everybody gets it, on some level. The stats don’t really matter, and the wins and losses don’t really matter. But spring training can still serve some purposes, for us as fans. As we discussed yesterday, spring training can generate highlights as good or almost as good as the highlights generated during the regular season. That is, of plays in isolation, separated from context. And there’s also some analysis that can be done, if done carefully. Previously, Michael Saunders never demonstrated any ability to hit to the opposite field or cover the outer half of the plate. Between 2011 and 2012, he re-worked his swing, and in spring 2012, he covered the other half of the plate. It was promising, and, sure enough, Saunders had a breakthrough season. Spring training isn’t entirely devoid of substance.

Which brings us to the matter of Domonic Brown, on Tuesday, February 26. On this Tuesday, Brown generated a highlight, and he also did something maybe worth talking about for analytical purposes. Behold, what Domonic Brown did to a thrown pitch by a member of the Yankees organization:

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat – 2/26/13


Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Papelbon: Baseball Play Analysis

They say that, when it comes to understanding anything about the subsequent regular season, you should never pay attention to numbers in March. That’s good advice, and it doesn’t even bother to mention numbers in February. Today is February 25, spring-training competition has only just begun, and nothing matters. To whatever extent any baseball matters, February baseball matters less than April baseball, which matters less than September baseball, which matters less than October baseball. Today’s baseball is only one step ahead of intrasquad action, and there’s not much of anything to be read into.

But even meaningless baseball can generate baseball highlights. It’s been a long time since we were given fresh, new baseball highlights, and earlier Monday, Miguel Cabrera did a mean thing to a Jonathan Papelbon delivery. It doesn’t matter that the game was meaningless; Papelbon wasn’t trying to give up a home run, he threw a normal pitch, and Cabrera blasted it out. Within pointless baseball, there are glimpses of regular baseball, and here is some video for you.

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Temporarily Replacing Curtis Granderson

All offseason long, there were questions regarding whether or not the Yankees had done enough. The Yankees, understandably, have been confident in themselves, but the media has expressed its share of doubt. That was with the Yankees as previously constructed. Now the Yankees are constructed differently, with one fewer Curtis Granderson, as the outfielder was hit by a pitch over the weekend and is now out for about 10 weeks. On one hand, it’s the right time for an injury, since spring training is just getting started. On the other hand, days into spring training, the Yankees have been confronted by a major injury that’ll carry over into May. The road to the playoffs has gotten all the more bumpy, and the Yankees are left considering what options they have for a temporary fill-in.

There’s not much on the active roster. There’s not much off the active roster, either, and right now the third Yankees’ outfielder probably stands to be Juan Rivera or Matt Diaz. As general managers always say, Brian Cashman said he’ll look at everything. As general managers also almost always say, Cashman said for the time being, replacement options are internal. The Yankees do have all spring to figure something out.

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2012 and Bunting for Power

Look over last year’s league bunting statistics and you might find yourself raising your eyebrows. You see a .393 batting average and you figure people should just bunt like all of the time. Of course, that ignores all the sacrifice bunts, and the failed bunt attempts, and most importantly the game-theoryness of it all, but there were nearly 600 bunt hits. That’s a lot of bunt hits. What might draw your eye is that there were 586 bunt singles. What might draw your eye next is that there were two bunt doubles. We have this statistic called ISO, and it’s slugging percentage minus batting average, and last year the league ISO on bunts was not .000. This is a strange thing to know.

What is a bunt double? We’ve all joked about bunt doubles and triples and homers, but few have probably ever seen a real bunt extra-base hit. It seems imperative that we review last year’s two, and we’ll even separate them, for reasons you’ll shortly come to understand. What we find is a true bunt double, and something of an honorable mention. Prepare yourself to read a little about Juan Pierre and Quintin Berry.

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How Much Time the Pitchers Took

More than anyone else on staff, and possibly more than anyone else on the planet, I like to look at and think about pitcher Pace. I’ve written about it here on several occasions, because watchability is a major concern of mine. Of course we just want there to be baseball, but if we all had our druthers, there would more consistently be entertaining baseball, and Pace plays a part in determining entertainment value. There are times when it’s better for things to slow down, allowing tension to build. More often, we’d rather a guy go faster than slower.

As is, though, Pace is expressed in seconds. By definition, Pace is the average amount of time between each pitch, and while we can see major differences at either extreme, we’re still thinking about it in terms of seconds. Seconds feel insignificant. Drink a glass of water. That took you several seconds, assuming you followed my order. You’ll feel like it took you no time at all. Now drink several glasses of water. Practically drown yourself with water! That took you longer, assuming you followed my order again for some stupid reason.

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