To see the definition of an expertly handled bullpen we need to merely look three days in the past, to Tony La Russa’s masterful performance Sunday against Philadelphia. After Chris Carpenter sputtered on three days rest, La Russa’s bullpen maneuvered deftly through the last six innings, holding the Phillies scoreless. All six of the Cardinals’ relievers — Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski and Arthur Rhodes — appeared in Sunday’s game, and thus a long start from Jaime Garcia on Tuesday would have been a boon for the bullpen.

Naturally, in the bottom of the sixth inning Tuesday in St. Louis, Tony La Russa was confronted with a conundrum: in a 0-0 game, Garcia came to bat with two outs and runners on first and second having thrown a mere 74 pitches. La Russa left Garcia in, and the decision would eventually lead to both their downfalls. Garcia would strike out to end the inning, and minutes later, with two outs in the top half of the seventh, Garcia would give up a three-run home run to Ben Francisco to effectively end the game.

Although Garcia certainly should have been able to retire Francisco, a .244/.340/.362 hitter on the season, La Russa’s decisions, first against pinch-hitting and then against removing Garcia, ultimately cost the Cardinals Game 3 and a 2-1 series lead.

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There was a certain level of anxiety around Milwaukee as the season wound down and Zack Greinke‘s first playoff start approached. I kept reminding my friends that Roy Halladay’s first playoff start was a no-hitter. But, of course, I was a bit worried myself, and it turned out that worry was warranted: Zack Greinke gave up four runs on three homers over his five inning start. It was good enough to keep the Brewers tied or in the lead throughout, however, and he lasted long enough to allow the Brewers to blow the game open in the sixth.

Plenty has been made of this big sixth inning, but I would like to highlight one play which has gone under the radar. Specifically, I am referring to Zack Greinke’s pickoff of Ryan Roberts in the top of the fourth inning.

The play can be viewed here.

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The similarities between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks are creepy. In 2010, both teams had very good offenses but sputtered to losing records due to horrible pitching. With their issues solved — a rebuilt bullpen in Arizona, a revamped starting rotation in Milwaukee — both teams stormed back from the depths of mediocrity (or worse) to hoist a division title in 2011.

The construction of both teams is remarkably similar. Both have a legitimate MVP candidate (Ryan Braun, Justin Upton). Both have good offenses, although with significant holes (Willie Bloomquist, Yuniesky Betancourt), and both have rotations turned from weaknesses to strengths, largely thanks to great one-two punches (Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson).

What will set these two teams apart? Let’s take a look at the advantages each team will carry into the series, both perceived and real.

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Below, you will find a graph detailing the probabilities that the Rays or the Red Sox would represent the American League as the Wild Card as the wild night of September 28th, 2011 progressed, based on Win Probability. Although we could never truly quantify whatever it was that happened yesterday, let these numbers be a handy guide as we highlight 16 of the key moments (with video links when possible) that ultimately resulted in the craziest night — and the craziest five minutes — in my baseball life and probably in baseball history.

Odds are calculated assuming a 50% win probability in a one-game playoff.

Click to embiggen as we dive into the night that was.

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All that stands between the St. Louis Cardinals and (at the very least) a 163rd game playoff for the National League is Brett Myers, a 31-year-old pitcher with all of 1.3 wins above replacement on the season, a 4.31 ERA, and a 4.30 FIP. No problem for a lineup like St. Louis, this year’s National League leader in runs scored, right?

On the other hand, Myers enters tonight’s start on fire, recording five straight starts of at least six innings pitched and only one run allowed. He’s now a full three months removed from a 16-start stretch spanning April, May, and June which saw him yield 22 home runs and a 4.82 ERA. Since then, Myers has settled in a bit, recording a 78-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 4.00 ERA, roughly league average in the hitters’ environment in Houston.

Which pitcher should the Cardinals expect to show up tonight?

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Back in May, and June, and even July, the Arizona Diamondbacks had their doubters. The San Francisco Giants were healthy and right in the race. San Francisco had a flawed offense, but one of the best pitching staffs in the league. And here were the Diamondbacks, a team relying on unproven pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Josh Collmenter, with a good offense but by no means an irresistable force, with holes in multiple places.

They still have a hole at shortstop, and I don’t know if anybody is convinced by Aaron Hill’s imitation of Dustin Pedroia — even with a .384 wOBA with the snakes, he sits at .292 on the season. But the real hole came at first base, and when teams have holes at first base, they tend to be exceptionally noticeable. Kevin Towers tried to fill it with Russell Branyan and Juan Miranda and Xavier Nady (and simply tossed aside Brandon Allen), but it was excessively clear neither could fill the role. The triumvirate limped to a combined -0.1 WAR as none of them managed to even touch an average wOBA — a cardinal sin when it comes to first base.

Enter Paul Goldschmidt

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Today on ESPN.com, one of the top baseball stories details Brian Cashman’s feigned interest in signing Carl Crawford over the offseason. This revelation isn’t actually new — Jack Curry of YES Network published the same news back in December — but the ESPN story does add one interesting quote to the story. Observe:

“I actually had dinner with the agent to pretend that we were actually involved and drive the price up,” Cashman said. “The outfield wasn’t an area of need, but everybody kept writing Crawford, Crawford, Crawford, Crawford. And I was like, ‘I feel like we’ve got Carl Crawford in Brett Gardner, except he costs more than $100 million less, with less experience.’

I made the claim earlier this season that Brett Gardner is an elite player, and it was met with mixed reactions. Some agree that Gardner’s decent hitting and great defense make him great; others find the claim of great defense too steeped in his great UZR. But now, courtesy of Brian Cashman, we have a suitable point of comparison from a person in a position of baseball authority. Carl Crawford was a four-time All-Star with the Rays and a gold glove winner. No sane person would argue he wasn’t an elite player with the Rays.

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As of this writing, Bronson Arroyo is making his 31st start of the season. Remarkably — perhaps because his opponent is the hapless Houston Astros — he hasn’t given up a home run (or even an earned run) through eight scoreless innings (as of press time).

This is remarkable because through Arroyo’s first 30 starts and 182 innings he had allowed a whopping 44 home runs. He is only the sixth player in history to ever reach this mark and only the 23rd pitcher to ever allow even 40 home runs in a season. Of both groups, Arroyo’s 182 innings is the lowest (second is Eric Milton‘s forgettable 2005 campaign, also coming as a member of the Reds). Only Shawn Boskie’s 1996 campaign featured fewer starts (28), and he also made nine relief appearances.

Interestingly enough, this 40-homer club actually features some of the best pitchers of all time, and it even includes a few very solid seasons. Among these 23 seasons we see Hall of Famers Bert Blyleven (twice), Robin Roberts (thrice), Ferguson Jenkins and Phil Niekro (twice), as well as Jack Morris, who remains on the ballot. And although giving up home runs is obviously the worst possible outcome for a pitcher, most of these guys still managed to perform well even with 40 or more homers allowed.

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