Underappreciated Play: Greinke Picks Off Roberts

There was a certain level of anxiety around Milwaukee as the season wound down and Zack Greinke‘s first playoff start approached. I kept reminding my friends that Roy Halladay’s first playoff start was a no-hitter. But, of course, I was a bit worried myself, and it turned out that worry was warranted: Zack Greinke gave up four runs on three homers over his five inning start. It was good enough to keep the Brewers tied or in the lead throughout, however, and he lasted long enough to allow the Brewers to blow the game open in the sixth.

Plenty has been made of this big sixth inning, but I would like to highlight one play which has gone under the radar. Specifically, I am referring to Zack Greinke’s pickoff of Ryan Roberts in the top of the fourth inning.

The play can be viewed here.

After giving up his second home run of the game, a shot off the bat of Chris Young, Greinke allowed a single in the shortstop-third base hole which Yuniesky Betancourt valiantly attempted to make a play on. He had no chance to complete the play despite reaching the ball and threw the ball well over Prince Fielder’s outstretched glove and into the stands, giving the Diamondbacks a runner on second with one out and the tying run coming to the plate in the form of Gerardo Parra.

At this point, the Brewers lead was 4-2 but their win expectancy was down to 71.7% after beginning the inning at a robust 82.3%. Greinke then executed one of the best “slow” pickoff moves (one where the pitcher begins with the leg kick as opposed to picking off in the style a right-hander usually uses to first base) I have ever witnessed. The play resulted in a -.064 WPA, the highest magnitude for any out made in the game, just worse than Yuniesky Betancourt’s double play in the second inning.

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Greinke would eventually give up the lead thanks to a majestic home run off the bat of Justin Upton, but the floodgates could have easily opened up in the fourth inning had Greinke not managed to catch an antsy Ryan Roberts cheating towards third base. It was the biggest play the Brewers defense made in their 9-4 victory en route to a 2-0 series lead.





Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.

17 Comments
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Mr. Verlander
14 years ago

I taught him that move.

I hope I don’t regret it in the WS.

Black_Rose
14 years ago
Reply to  Mr. Verlander

No you didn’t.

Mr. Verlander
14 years ago
Reply to  Black_Rose

Prove it.

Jeff
14 years ago
Reply to  Mr. Verlander

You’re not even a funny troll. Just stop it.

Mr. Verlander
14 years ago
Reply to  Jeff

I’m not a troll.

I really am Justin Verlander.

BTW, I do find it comical that you took the time out of your day to complain about a “troll”. Must be a busy guy.

You would think you would be grateful talking to such an immense talent.

joser
14 years ago

Yuniesky Betancourt valiantly attempted to make a play on. He had no chance to complete the play despite reaching the ball and threw the ball well over Prince Fielder‘s outstretched glove and into the stands

The play resulted in a -.064 WPA, the highest magnitude for any out made in the game, just worse than Yuniesky Betancourt’s double play in the second inning.

There is the Yuniesky Betancourt that Mariners fans remember: he may not be able to throw to first reliably, but at least he makes a lot of outs at the plate. That a team has managed to make the postseason despite starting him as their regular shortstop is the real under-appreciated accomplishment of the Brewers.

juan pierre's mustache
14 years ago
Reply to  joser

valiant is the new scrappy

Ben
14 years ago
Reply to  joser

He almost managed to screw up this play by almost getting run into for an obstruction call. In fact, I’m not sure it shouldn’t have been called because it looked like Roberts moved around him so as not to collide with him.

Colin
14 years ago

I do not know about “cheating” it looked more like he was “running” in an attempt to steal that Greinke thwarted.

Ben F
14 years ago
Reply to  Colin

And Greinke didn’t pick him off, so much as he caught him stealing. Greinke noticed that he was running, and went to second.

The NickerMember since 2016
14 years ago

This was tied for the 10th most important play in this game based on WPA.

This was tied for the 34th most important play in yesterday’s three games.

This play was valued the same by WPA as Jerry Hairston Jr’s one-out double in the bottom of the 6th, and that play actually ended up being far more important. In fact, if one was looking for a play that was truly underappreciated that took place in the same game, how about Hairston’s fake steal right when Ziegler came into the game. Hairston ends up on 3rd with one out, arguably rattles Ziegler into walking (walking!) Yuni Betancourt, and allows for the successful safety squeeze that in fact did open the floodgates in the game.

I’d say the Greinke pickoff was appreciated properly, which is to say, it was an ok play, probably overvalued by WPA since Greinke got the next guy to strike out and the pitcher spot was coming up. Perhaps Fangraphs is focusing on Zack Greinke a bit too much.

Fangraphs
14 years ago
Reply to  The Nicker

I LOVE ZACH GREINKE HE CAN DO NO WRONG WHY WOULD YOU SUGGEST ANYTHING ELSE?

midgley's folly
14 years ago

is it not a balk if a pitcher brings his front leg up and behind the plane of his pushoff leg in an attempt to deceive a baserunner? genuinely curious…

SaloF
14 years ago

“Yuniesky Betancourt valiantly attempted to make a play on. He had no chance to complete the play despite reaching the ball and threw the ball well over Prince Fielder‘s outstretched glove and into the stands”

Come on, he would have made that play if the throw was acurate.

Maybe lack of talent, not of judgement. You don´t want your players to stop trying to make groundball outs whith no one on, even if its Bentacourt

juan pierre's mustache
14 years ago
Reply to  SaloF

can someone do some statistical shenanigans and figure out how much betancourt’s value would change if he just stopped every ball to him and declined to throw to first?

shibboleth
14 years ago

Baseball basics question: can someone explain to me how that is not a balk?

joser
14 years ago
Reply to  shibboleth

No hesitation.