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The End of the Aaron Rowand Era

They say desperate times call for desperate measures. In San Francisco, desperate times apparently call for sane, resonable, and rational measures. Today, the Giants have designated Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada for assignment.

The Tejada decision was an easy one: he was on a one-year deal and simply never showed MLB ability this season, posting a .239/.270/.326 line. The Rowand decision, on the other hand required more than simply dumping an aging veteran who would be gone at the end of the season anyway. Designating Rowand for assignment at this juncture is that decision we so often see general managers (or ownership) shy away from at the most important times: cutting bait on a big, long-term contract.

Rowand is currently in the fourth year of a five-year, $60 million dollar contract. He is still owed roughly $2 million for the rest of 2011 and $12 million for the 2012 season. But with Rowand contributing only 0.7 WAR in 2011 and 4.8 WAR from 2008-2011, it was increasingly difficult for Brian Sabean and the Giants to justify his spot on the roster. Hindsight, of course, is simple, and Aaron Rowand was once a very good baseball player. Did Sabean whiff on the decision to pay Rowand, or was the ill-fated deal more about the player failing to live up to his value?
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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 8/30/11


Justin Verlander: A Shot At 25?

Justin Verlander won his 20th game Saturday against the Minnesota Twins. Eric Seidman already covered his MVP candidacy this morning, and I have to agree that we should probably cool down on it a little bit. I’m sure my opinion surprises absolutely nobody — we here at FanGraphs can’t stand pitcher wins, and I’m no different.

However, as Eric mentioned, Verlander might have a shot at 25 victories this season. And as heartless and cold and robotic as I may seem on the outside, even I can recognize the weight of that accomplishment. It hasn’t been done since Bob Welch was led by the Oakland Athletics to a 27-win season in 1990 — and I choose these words for a reason. Welch wasn’t actually that great that year, posting a sub-2.0 K/BB ratio, a FIP above 4.00, and a 2.95 ERA which was only five points lower than the ERA which brought him a 17-win season the year before. But with a little help from his friends, Welch put together the winningest season we’ve seen in two decades. Verlander has 20 wins and only six starts (maybe only five) left, so he won’t catch Welch this year. But can he, realistically, get to 25 and put a name to the accomplishment that actually deserves it?

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Kelly Johnson’s Trade, Kevin Towers, and Strikeouts

One of the first things Kevin Towers made known upon his hiring as Arizona Diamondbacks’ GM was his distaste for the incredibly high strikeout numbers his new team put up in 2010 — the D’Backs struck out 24.7% of the time, 2.5% more than the second-worst Marlins. A quote from his introductory press conference:

“Personally, I like contact hitters. I like guys that have good pitch recognition. Strikeouts are part of the game, but if you have four or five or six guys [who strike out a lot] in your lineup, it’s hard to sustain any sort of rally.”

Towers quickly shipped out the Diamondbacks’ biggest perpetrator, Mark Reynolds (35%) and let Adam LaRoche (28%) walk in free agency. There were rumors Justin Upton would be traded as well, although surely the entire Diamondbacks family is glad that didn’t come to pass. This year, Towers has continued to deal away high-strikeout players. Russell Branyan was let go quickly as the left side of the first base platoon with Juan Miranda (perfectly understandable, as Branyan has continued to struggle this season with the Angels). Brandon Allen was hardly given a chance before being dealt for a reliever. And finally, Kelly Johnson, whose strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 27% this season, was dealt for Aaron Hill and John McDonald on Tuesday.

Don’t think Johnson hasn’t noticed this trend. As he told The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro:

“The difference is, I think ‘KT’ would rather throw up three times a day after eating than have his team strike out a lot,” Johnson said. “I know there (in Toronto), they’re little more free-spirited about the idea of getting up there and getting the first pitch they see. I know it’s a different philosophy. You never know what works. Obviously, it’s worked in Toronto for some guys. They’ve struck out a lot and had some pretty good offenses in the past.”

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 8/23/11


Angels Lock Up Jered Weaver

Jered Weaver is one step closer to becoming an Angel For Life. Sunday night, the Los Angels Angels of Anaheim agreed to a five-year, $85 million dollar contract with their 28-year-old ace.

Weaver’s status as one of baseball’s premiere pitchers is certain. Weaver has only once failed to post an ERA below 4.00 (2008) and is now in his second straight season with both ERA- and FIP- marks below 75. He ranks third among qualified starters in ERA- over the past two seasons and fourth in FIP-, among such names as Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Felix Hernandez, to name a few.

Two of Weaver’s contemporaries near the top of the list supply near-perfect context with which to evaluate his new extension. Justin Verlander signed a five-year, $80 million contract extension with the Tigers before the 2010 season, and the Mariners locked up Felix Hernandez with a five-year, $78 million extension.

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Wishful Thinking: Arizona Should Call Up Trevor Bauer

With Wade Miley up to take the injured Jason Marquis’ spot in the starting rotation — and veterans Zach Duke and Micah Owings in the bullpen — the Diamondbacks should move Trevor Bauer to the major leagues. A bit of wishful thinking? Sure. But Arizona needs to roll the dice on this 20-year-old.

Let’s pretend, for a second, that Arizona isn’t satisfied with Miley as its fifth option (perhaps he has a bad start to open up, or maybe he gets injured). The Diamondbacks could then move Duke or Owings into the rotation — options that have failed on multiple levels already — or the team could bring up another minor-leaguer from Reno.

Or they could call up the most major-league ready prospect from the 2011 MLB draft.

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 8/16/11


Carlos Zambrano Pitched, Too

Carlos Zambrano is back in the news. Unfortunately, in the world of Carlos Zambrano, no news is good news. This time, Zambrano exploded after giving up five home runs to the Atlanta Braves on Friday: he threw up-and-in at Chipper Jones, was ejected, and then promptly emptied out his locker and left the Cubs clubhouse with rumors of his retirement abound. Of course, Zambrano realized some $25 million over the next year-and-a-half is too much to walk away from. Now, the Cubs have placed Zambrano on the disqualified list for the next 30 days, and we surely haven’t heard the end of this battle.

All too often, Zambrano has made it difficult to remember he also, you know, pitches every once in a while. As Fox Sports’s Jon Morosi reminds us:

So while Zambrano told the Associated Press that he had a “fresh mind” after signing the extension, it didn’t last. Yes, he threw a no-hitter in 2008, but that’s not what comes to mind when you hear his name. You think about him attacking the Gatorade machine with the baseball bat (on live television). You think about him pitching a fit at Derrek Lee in the dugout (again, on live television). You think about him declaring the anger management issues a thing of the past, when in fact they were not.

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 8/2/11