Within the span of two hours on Thursday night, the Toronto Blue Jays acquired catcher Miguel Olivo from the Colorado Rockies for either cash or a PTBNL and then declined his $2.5 million option for 2011. That move cost the Jays $500,000, but it also allows them to offer arbitration to Olivo, who becomes a type B agent with his option declined. The Jays now have five different players who could bring back draft pick compensation, with Olivo joining Jason Frasor, Scott Downs (both Type A), Kevin Gregg, and John Buck.

If the Jays offer arbitration and everybody declines – obviously the best case scenario – the Jays will come out of this with at least 5 supplemental draft pick and two second round picks. If Frasor and Downs were to go to a team with an unprotected pick – this year, the 19th pick, held by the Detroit Tigers, is the first unprotected pick – the Jays could pick up two more first rounders. In this ideal situation, the Jays could pick up an utterly massive haul, with eight picks in the top 50 of the draft. Said haul becomes even more impressive when we consider that the upcoming draft in 2011 is considered to be one of the deeper drafts of recent times, and far deeper than the 2010 draft.

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Elijah Dukes has been arrested yet again. From the AP (via ESPN.com):

TAMPA, Fla. — Authorities say former Major League Baseball player Elijah Dukes has been jailed in Tampa on charges related to allegedly failing to pay child support.

Hillsborough County jail records show the one-time outfielder for the Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals was arrested Monday on contempt of court charges. He remained in jail Tuesday.

The Rays have had quite the stock of young outfielders roll through their farm system. Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have roamed the Trop in Rays uniforms. Rocco Baldelli had star potential before mitochondrial issues derailed his career. Josh Hamilton become one of the game’s best story in Cincinnati and then Texas, and Delmon Young is now a major part of the Minnesota Twins outfield.

Dukes was a prospect on the same level of those players. Every scouting report noted Dukes as an elite athlete with the bat to back it up. Dukes struggled in his first year in the minors – probably to be expected of a 19-year-old in A ball – but after that, Dukes put up an .830 OPS at every level with a combination of solid discipline and good power.

But every scouting report also noted his makeup issues. As much as his talent warranted unbridled optimism, his off-field issues loomed as a constant limit. Prior to reaching his Major League debut in 2007, Dukes had already been arrested multiple times. Dukes was also ejected five times in the 2005 season and, in 2006, received a combined 35 games worth of suspensions from the International League and the Tampa Bay Rays organization.

Dukes struggled in his first MLB stint with Tampa, putting up a .190/.318/.391 (.191 BABIP) line in 220 plate appearances. That performance is not as terrible as the batting average makes it look, but it is also certainly not the way a top prospect hopes to enter the Major Leagues, as Dukes finished the year with -0.2 WAR. He was eventually listed by the Devil Rays as day-to-day for “personal reasons” in mid-June, and placed on the inactive list for the rest of the season by the end of the month, effectively ending his season, and as it turned out, his time with the Rays organization.

Rays GM Andrew Friedman said that the time on the inactive list was meant to “take some time away from the field and to focus on his personal life, re-evaluate everything, and most importantly allow him an opportunity away from the spotlight.” Apparently, the Rays weren’t willing to go forward with Dukes in the organization. They traded him away to the Washington Nationals for Glenn Gibson, a left handed minor leaguer who has, as of this season, yet to pitch above A ball.

The Rays shot up to contention, the playoffs, and eventually the World Series in 2008, but Dukes had his own breakout year in Washington. In 334 plate appearances, Dukes posted a spectacular .264/.386/.478 (.323 BABIP) line while playing solid defense in the corners for the Nationals. Dukes walked in 15% of plate appearances and showed power, putting up a .231 ISO. Overall, Dukes’s season was worth 2.9 WAR in a mere 334 plate appearances, making him easily the best player on the Nationals roster on a per-game basis. That kind of pace equated Dukes with all-stars like Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer. Unfortunately, injuries limited Dukes’s on-field time, as he missed games due to hamstring, knee, and calf injuries to his right leg.

Even with the injuries, it’s hard to deny the merit of the performance we saw from Dukes in 2008. Despite that, Dukes spent opening day of 2009 on the bench, a decision which Dave tore apart at the time. For whatever reason, be it nagging effects from the injuries or mental issues or simply regression, Dukes couldn’t maintain the production that had Nationals fans and baseball observers alike chomping at the bit to see more of the outfielder in 2009. Instead, Dukes put up a meager .250/.337/.393 (.291 BABIP) line with poor defense in right field, finishing below replacement level yet again. By the time the 2010 season and another chance at star-level performance would come around, Dukes was released by the Nationals.

Dukes hasn’t played professional baseball since then. One has to imagine that the loss of his father to cancer merely months after his release from jail affected Dukes through the 2009 season and through 2010 as he dealt with and was eventually cut loose by the Washington organization. Dukes will only be 27 in June of 2011, but the fact that not a single organization was willing to gamble on him probably signified the end of a shockingly and unfortunately short MLB career. If that was not yet the case, this arrest is probably the final nail in the coffin.

Elijah Dukes was a tremendous talent who should be entering the prime of his career this season. The word “disappointing” doesn’t even begin to sum up the situation. Unfortunately for all parties involved, the Elijah Dukes that showed so much promise is no longer a part of baseball, now replaced by occasional negative headlines and reminders of what should have been.

There it is. The final game of the 2010 baseball season.

Unless our dark lord David Appelman has some sort of fancy site redesign in the works that I haven’t heard about, that image will grace the upper right corner of this website for the next four months and 29 days. Until March 31, 2011, when the MLB season begins anew and 30 teams begin the arduous 162 game march toward the Commissioner’s Trophy, that abstraction of the clinching game of the most recent World Series will remain the closest thing to “Live Win Probability” we have.

What do we see? The defining moment of the final game comes from an Edgar Renteria home run. Juan Uribe hit an important single for the World Series champions. No Albert Pujols. No Chase Utley. No Mark Teixeira. No Kevin Youkilis. No Carl Crawford. And, most importantly, we see the final score, “Giants (3) @ Rangers (1).”

Unlike last season, in which the Yankees defeated the Phillies in a perfectly rational and sensible Fall Classic, this season’s final game also serves as a reminder of how unpredictable our sport can be at times. The Giants were by no means favorites entering the year, and many (such as myself) were pessimistic on their playoff hopes, predicting a .500 season or worse. The Vegas odds could have been an unprecedented 1000 to 0 – a zero dollar bet on the Giants pays 1000 dollars – and there may have been few takers.

No, instead the image of that final game will be a reminder that sometimes, things just happen. Sometimes, Aubrey Huff becomes Albert Pujols for a season. Sometimes, that superfreak catching prospect and the 30+ year old minor league veteran come from AAA to carry a team’s offense. Sometimes, a team plucks a player off waivers – not even intending to acquire him! – and sometimes, that player goes off in October. Sometimes, the 35 year old shortstop on his sixth team hits a go-ahead home run in a clinching World Series game.

Rarely do all of these things happen together, and rarely do they happen to a team that also happens to have pieces in place like a fantastic, young pitching rotation and an elite closer. 2010, though, was the year that everything came together. A group of guys who, at least according to everybody around the game, had no business winning the World Series will have the rings for the rest of their lives, and have they ever earned them.

If you use this site often, that image in the upper right corner will serve as your reminder of how the 2010 World Champions finished their season all winter long. March 31, 2011 is a long way away. Get used to it.

Last night, Madison Bumgarner turned in eight scoreless innings in a World Series game, earning the victory for the Giants in game four. Bumgarner also recorded six strikeouts and allowed only five baserunners in the entire outing (three hits, two walks). And, to top it all off, Bumgarner accomplished this as a rookie, starting his first World Series game as a mere 21 year old, only adding to the grandiosity of the achievement. Bumgarner’s heroics was the focal point of the media as the game concluded: after Ken Rosenthal finished his post-game interview with Madison Bumgarner and turned to interview Aubrey Huff, he asked (paraphrasing) “And all that at 21. How does he do it?”

The fact that Bumgarner is even making a World Series start at age 21 is remarkable. Bumgarner became only the 16th pitcher 21 years old or younger to ever start a playoff game, and the latest since Jaret Wright with the Indians in 1997. Unsurprisingly, Bumgarner’s start ranks in the upper echelon of this group. He is the sixth of the 21 or younger group not to allow a run, with his 80 game score ranking 5th (barely besting Bret Saberhagen in 1985’s seventh game) and his .472 WPA ranking 4th (above Whitey Ford in 1950’s fourth game).

Bumgarner’s performance is indeed one of the best among those in his age group. But – and a postseason with as many transcendent pitching performance as 2010 can make us forget this – pitching performances like the one we saw on Sunday night are rare from pitchers of any age. We don’t have to limit the comparisons to other World Series rookies or youngsters to come to the conclusion that Bumgarner pitched remarkably.

The games started by Tommy Hunter and Madison Bumgarner represent the 1,231 and 1,232 pitching starts in World Series history. Only 137 of them have seen a pitcher throw at least eight innings and allow zero earned runs. The number drops to 27 when we restrict ourselves to the modern era (1969-present) and only 13 in the Wild Card era (1993-present). Bumgarner’s game score of 80 ranks tied for 84th all-time. Only 19 pitchers have bested that game score since 1969, and only seven (Roger Clemens, Cliff Lee, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Chris Carpenter, Josh Beckett, and Randy Johnson) have done it since 1993.

There’s no doubt that Bumgarner’s age makes his achievement more impressive, both from the emotional and mental aspect as well as the sheer difficulty of accomplishing something of this degree in one’s first 22 years on this planet. But the greatness of this start goes beyond Bumgarner’s age. Rarely do we see pitchers dominate opposing hitters as Bumgarner did in the World Series, regardless of their age or experience level, and that’s what truly makes Sunday night’s start one for the ages.

Ron Washington has released his lineup for Game 2, and, as Dave suggested and as many suspected, it will not include Vladimir Guerrero. There was a time that Vlad was a competent or even good right fielder, but a combination of years on the knee-destroying turf of Olympic Stadium in Montreal have rendered him effectively useless in the outfield. If you don’t believe me or didn’t catch the game last night, you can see it quite plainly in the videos of Guerrero’s two errors at the link in the first sentence.

Guerrero’s decline in the field evokes memories of Ken Griffey Jr late in his career, at least for me. Particularly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Vlad was now a -25 or -30 outfielder, as Griffey was with Cincinnati in 2007, at least according to UZR. With David Murphy as an aveage fielder and a comparable hitter, if not better, against right handed pitching, the decision is a no-brainer: Murphy should be in the outfield, and Vlad should be on the bench.

That said, if we count the difference in fielding as 30 runs per 150 games and call them equal hitters, the difference over the course of one game is a mere 0.2 runs. Obviously, a manger should want to wring every bit of extra win expectancy out of his roster as he can, but there’s a significant chance that this move ends up meaningless and it may even look poor if Murphy chokes. In the latter case, the second guessers will swarm the internet by the time the last out is recorded.

Just think – what if Murphy goes 0-4 with a key strikeout or double play? If Murphy makes an error in the outfield and the veteran and potential Hall of Famer in Vlad remains on the bench, what then? What if Murphy makes the last out with Vlad on the bench, or, even worse, in the on-deck circle?

These points would probably carry more weight if Murphy had received the start in game one, as at least we now have it burned into our eyes that Guerrero just can’t hack it in the outfield. Also, I have confidence in most baseball fans and much of the media to keep a level head and to realize that the process here was correct and that the results simply didn’t break correctly for Texas. Still, for all the logical, level-headed columnists, writers, bloggers, and fans, we also have those who are reactionary and refuse to look at these decisions with perspective.

The simple truth is that Washington has already made the correct choice. From here on out, it’s on the players. If Murphy doesn’t play up to his talent level, and he makes an error or fails at bat in a clutch situation, that cannot be blamed on Ron Washington. With this decision, he has given the Rangers a better chance to win, and any second guessing will simply be posturing with the help of hindsight.

Once again, the Colorado Rockies rotation was among the best in baseball. ranking fifth in team FIP and fouth in team xFIP. The major factor for the Rockies was the 221 excellent innings thrown by Ubaldo Jimenez, but they received contributions from up and down the rotation, most notably from Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, Jason Hammel, and, finally, Jeff Francis.

Francis missed the first 36 games of 2010 as part of recovery from a 2009 shoulder surgery which cost him the entire 2009 season. He pitched through August before suffering another injury to that shoulder which kept him out for much of the month and the first week of September. When Francis did pitch, though, he was solid, recording a 3.88 FIP and a 3.94 xFIP. Uncharacteristic struggles with runners on base (64.5% LOB) resulted in a 5.00 ERA, which may lead the Rockies and other clubs to believe that Francis took a step back in 2010.

The poor results may be one reason that the Rockies are likely to decline Francis’s $7 million option for 2011. More likely, it’s the fact that injuries have limited Francis to 248 innings from 2008-2010 that has the Rockies balking at the idea of guaranteeing a salary that calls for multiple WAR in 2011. The Rockies will look to bring Francis back, but there’s a good chance that other teams will be in the mix as well.

Starting pitchers are always a sought after commodity, and 2011 should be no different, particularly given how thin the free agent market is after Cliff Lee. The Brewers appear to be the most obvious target for Francis outside of Colorado, as their rotation is a complete question mark beyond Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson. Most teams can use starting pitching depth and Francis has the ability to put up 2+ WAR next season, so other teams could jump in as well, but Milwaukee appears to be the best fit as of right now.

The Rockies are seeing some of their best players – most notably Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez – receive raises this year as they move towards free agency. Their payroll in 2010 was nearly $10 million higher then its previous high. Between the elevating payroll and the depth of their pitching staff, retaining Francis at a risky $7 million may not be in their best interests, even though he’s basically a lock to provide that kind of value if he starts even 20-25 games. As other teams won’t be under these same kind of payroll constraints, Francis is likely to receive a deal that the Rockies can’t afford this offseason. With a rotation of Jimenez, Chacin, Rogers, Hammel, and Aaron Cook, the Rockies will be fine, even though they may take a step down from 2010.

Magglio Ordonez’s bat was just too good to keep off the field in 2008 and 2009. Normally, that wouldn’t be a bad thing, but Ordonez’s 1141 plate appearances during that stretch forced the 2010 Tigers to commit $18 million dollars to the aging outfielder. Ordonez had a good 2010, posting a .375 wOBA, but a fractured right ankle limited him to only 365 plate appearances and therefore a 2.5 WAR – again, solid, but nowhere near $18 million dollars of value.

Although it’s feasible that Ordonez could have kept the Tigers in the race – they were only 2.5 back of Chicago and 1.5 behind Minnesota at the time of the injury – the Tigers will at least avoid a second, $15 million vesting option in 2011. Ordonez’s 365 PAs to end the season easily dodged the 540 PA threshold which would have vested the option.

The Tigers still could exercise the option on their own, but there’s no way to rationalize paying a soon-to-be 36 year old slugger coming off a major injury at a 3.5-4 WAR price. Ordonez is therefore certain to hit the free agent market, where a player of his caliber – 6.6 WAR in the last three seasons – will inevitably be coveted somewhere around the league.

Ordonez’s suitors in the NL figure to be limited due to his lack of defensive value, but there should be an AL team willing to add another bat like Ordonez given the pathetic state of the DH position. Not a single team put up a better mark than Ordonez’s .375 wOBA, and only the Orioles (Luke Scott), Red Sox (David Ortiz), Twins (Jim Thome), and Rangers (Vladimir Guerrero) equaled or bettered Ordonez’s +21 run offensive projection from CHONE.

There are three players on last year’s free agent market that strike me as similar to Ordonez: Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero, and Hideki Matsui. If teams still feel that Ordonez is a legitimate right fielder – a possibility given his -7 DRS since 2008 – Abreu’s two year, $19 million deal makes a lot of sense. If he’s relegated to a DH role – a stronger possibility in my opinion, given the injury and a -15 UZR/-19 TZ since 2008 – perhaps a one year, incentive laden deal like those of Guerrero and Matsui will be all the market has for him. If CHONE’s projected value of Ordonez is on, he should look for a roughly $10 million AAV on a new contract in the field and slightly less as a primary DH.

Among teams with ideas of contention, the White Sox and Rays could take a look at Ordonez, and perhaps the Tigers could bring him back on a cheaper deal. Seattle would be a short term fit too, but they likely won’t be competing in 2011 and Ordonez probably doesn’t project as much of a long term investment, unless he’s a trade chip. Unless a team has a log jam at DH and COF, it would be hard to criticize them for bringing Ordonez on board, and at the right price, he could be the bat that vaults a team into the playoffs.

The Mets are a franchise in turmoil. Despite a lofty payroll, the team hasn’t reached the postseason since 2006. The manager and the general manager were canned following yet another disappointing season. There’s no doubt that the Mets have talented players, but for whatever reasons, be it late season collapses, injuries, or roster mismanagement, they just haven’t been able to put a playoff season together.

Naturally, that means that there’s going to be some speculation about the future of some of the Mets talented veterans, such as shortstop Jose Reyes. The Mets hold an option on Reyes for $11 million dollars this season, which, according to the New York Post, they will pick up.

In that same Post article, the Mets state that they will be working on an extension with Reyes. However, until one is announced, Reyes’s post-2011 fate will be up in the air. Reyes is a question mark now, as he has followed up three 5+ WAR seasons in 2006-2008 with a total of 3.7 WAR in 169 games in 2009-2010. Much of the missed time was from a calf injury suffered in 2009, but thyroid, back, and oblique injuries sent him to the bench on four separate occasions in 2010 as well.

Reyes didn’t play up to his normal standards in 2010, either. He put up a .282/.321/.428 line which, although above average for the league and well above average for the shortstop position, comes in at 14 points of OBP and 6 points of SLG lower than his typical season. The biggest standout in his 2010 statistics is a walk rate of only 5.1%, his lowest since 2005 and the culprit for his relatively low on-base percentage. Reyes also rated poorly by UZR (-5) and TotalZone (-4) and was graded as average by DRS. In Reyes’s three year all-star stretch, fielding was a key component of his value, as he was +19 by both UZR and DRS and even better by TZ and TZL.

With the uncertainty latent in these defensive stats, there’s still a chance that Reyes could be an above-average shortstop. However, given the injuries to both his core and a leg, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his range and mobility were decreased. His bat has never been elite by itself, either, and a sharp decrease in walk rate is worthy of concern, as it is one of the quickest offensive rates to stabilize. For Reyes, it was the sum of his total package of skills that made him an elite player for those three seasons, and the steps back in the two most important facets of the game should be worrisome for those around Queens.

The first order of business for the Mets will be to decide between Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes for their general manager position. The decision of what to do with Jose Reyes will be one of the biggest decisions for whoever wins this job in the coming year. Reyes is a tremendous talent, but with the uncertainty derived from all of his injuries, it’s hard to project him as an all-star going forward. When it comes to an extension, the Mets should be patient and extremely careful before putting all their chips in the pot.

Eric Chavez: Oakland Athletics
Option: $12.5M Buyout: $3M

The Eric Chavez contract has been one of the most disappointing in Oakland Athletics history and a big reason why many around baseball have been proclaiming the death of Beane as a brilliant general manager. After posting 3.6 WAR in 2006, injuries turned Chavez into a shell of his former self, as he has posted a total of 0.3 WAR since. As R.J. covered last year, it’s unfair to blame Beane for this effectively unforeseeable turn of events. Last season, the Athletics went into the year with the idea of using Chavez as a DH, with the hopes that he could at least remain in the lineup, but that proved fruitless. Chavez posted a .234/.276/.333 line in 123 plate appearances and recorded five innings in the field, all at first base. That line comes out to -0.4 WAR, and there’s no indication from his performance or durability in the past four years that suggests much better. Eric Chavez’s certainly won’t return to Oakland and his career is likely over. Although he was fantastic from 2001-2006, he may be (unfairly) remembered more as a mistake contract than a great MLB player.

Bill Hall: Boston Red Sox
Option: $9.25M Buyout: $0.25M

After disappointing seasons in 2008 and 2009 with Milwaukee and Seattle, Hall bounced back as a super-utility man with the Boston Red Sox. Hall showcased strong pull power during his best years in Milwaukee and that resurfaced in 2010, as he socked 16 doubles and 18 homers in his 382 plate appearances as a Red Sox member. But he still hasn’t found a positional home, as he played every position except for 1B and C (yes, he pitched an inning). Although he was decent in center field for a year with Milwaukee, he was at his best on the left side of the infield, where he showcased a plus glove at both shortstop and third base. If he can maintain the bat he showed this year, he could be a valuable player at those positions, but he’s guaranteed to strike out a ton and therefore needs to hit for power to be productive. He’s too high variance of a player for Boston to pick up his option, but Hall deserves a multi-million dollar deal, and he probably deserves the chance to compete for a starting job somewhere around the league.

The final series of the first round also had some of the most up-and-down games.

Best Games

5. Kyle Farnsworth, Game 2
1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, +.377 WPA

Farnsworth’s inning-plus in game two came in about as high leverage of a situation as it gets (although some of it was self-created). He entered with a runner on second and one out in a 4-4 game in the tenth inning, proceeded to hit and walk the two subsequent hitters, and then induced one of the most ridiculous double plays in baseball history, with Troy Glaus eschewing the out at home and going 5-4-3 to end the inning. Farnsworth then stayed in to record the “save” up by one in the eleventh. Overall, his outing had a pLI of 3.86, nearly double the typical situation for a closer, making his scoreless effort all the more impressive.

4. Buster Posey, Game 3
2-4, RBOE, +.422 WPA

In game three, otherwise known as the “Brooks Conrad game,” Posey was having a good but uneventful night at the dish until he hit a shot up the middle which Conrad couldn’t handle. The Giants took the lead on that play, Conrad’s third error of the night. Of Posey’s +.422 WPA on the night, +.371 came from that play.

3. Johnathan Sanchez, Game 3
7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER (allowed by Romo), 11 K, 1 BB, +.466 WPA

The craziness of the final two innings of game three make it easy to forget just how masterful Johnathan Sanchez was. In a low scoring game on both sides, Sanchez was murder on Braves hitters, staying in complete control until he was pulled by manager Bruce Bochy in the eighth. His only earned run of the game didn’t score until after he was lifted – perhaps his line could have looked even better.

2. Eric Hinske, Game 3
1-1, HR, 2 RBI, +.578 WPA

Eric Hinske isn’t exactly a great all around player, but he can hit right handed pitching. That’s exactly what he did against Sergio Romo, as he just barely took one over the right field fence to give the Braves a 2-1 lead heading into the ninth inning.

1. Tim Lincecum, Game 1
9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 14 K, 1 BB, +.711 WPA

The fact that this performance was even compared to the Roy Halladay no-hitter finished mere hours before game one started is a testament to Lincecum’s tremendous performance. For all the domination Johnathan Sanchez showed in game 3, it was nothing compared to Lincecum, who drew 31 swings and misses along the way to his fourteen strikeouts. To put the cherry on top, he did it all on in a 1-0 game. Perhaps it wasn’t quite as magical as the no-hitter, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Lincecum’s game one deserves a lofty spot in the all-time best postseason pitching performances.

Worst Games

5. Tommy Hanson, Game 2
4.0 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 4 R, 5 K, 1 BB, -.260 WPA

The Braves would eventually come back and win this game, but the four early runs given up by Tommy Hanson put them in a deep hole. Much of the damage was done early on a three-run Pat Burrell home run (-.259 WPA), and Hanson did settle down after that and pitched pretty well in his final three innings, allowing the Braves to later tie the game and then win it in extra innings.

4. Buster Posey, Game 2
1-4, BB, R, K, GIDP, -.344 WPA

Both of Posey’s positive events – his walk and single – came with two outs and weren’t run scoring events, and, until the tenth inning, none of Posey’s outs had came in high leverage situations either. When Posey came to bat in the bottom of the 10th with bases loaded and one out, he could have won the game. Instead, he grounded into a double play in easily his most important at bat of the game, moving the Giants win expectancy back from 83% to 50%. The Braves would go on to score the winning run in the next inning on Rick Ankiel’s home run.

3. Michael Dunn, Game 3
0 IP, 1 H, -.349 WPA

It doesn’t get much simpler than this. Dunn entered in the bottom of the ninth with one sole purpose: retire Aubrey Huff. He couldn’t, as Huff singled in the tying run and put runners on first and second for Buster Posey. Bobby Cox immediately pulled the left-handed specialist, ending his night right there.

2*. Peter Moylan, Game 3
0 IP, 0 H, 1 RBOE, -.371 WPA

The final Brooks Conrad error came with Moylan on the mound, and due to the lack of defense in our implementation of WAR, Moylan receives the full -.371 debit for this play. Posey did hit that ball hard, but Moylan should have been out of the inning. Instead, the go-ahead run scored and the Giants went on to win.

1. Sergio Romo, Game 3
0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 HR, 1 ER, -.563 WPA

Romo was called upon to protect a 1-0 lead as well as Johnathan Sanchez’s shutout. He couldn’t do either, as Eric Hinske, the first batter Romo faced, hit the home run mentioned above to give the Braves a 2-1 lead. Romo did manage to retire the side after the home run, but at that point, with the Giants only having one more chance to score, things were looking bleak for San Francisco. Luckily for Romo, he was bailed out by Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, and Brooks Conrad.

**. Brooks Conrad, Game 3
0-3, 3 errors, -.751 unofficial WPA

Conrad’s game three will go down as one of the worst postseason performances in history. I wrote about it in detail here.

Best Series

Hitter: Eric Hinske
1-3, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB +.664 WPA

Hinske didn’t play much in this series, but in his two biggest PAs (leverage indexes of 3.3 and 4.5), Hinske came up big, with the go-ahead home run in game three and a one-out, one-on walk in the bottom of the ninth in game four.

Pitcher: Tim Lincecum
9 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 14 K, 1 BB, +.711 WPA

See above.

Worst Series

Hitter: Jason Heyward
2-16, 1 BB, 8 K, GIDP, -.493 WPA

Heyward’s rookie season was incredible, but his debut in the postseason was anything but. Heyward struggled the whole way and failed to record a hit until game four. The Braves didn’t hit much at all this series, and Heyward’s struggles were a big reason why.

Pitcher: Sergio Romo
0.2 IP, 3 H, HR, 3 R, -.705 WPA

Romo appeared in two games and was awful in both, allowing the aforementioned Hinske home run in game three and failing to record an out in the eighth inning of game two.

Notables:

Buster Posey: +.205 WPA
Cody Ross: +.276 WPA
Brian McCann: +.353 WPA
Omar Infante: -.324 WPA