Pending Options Spotlight: Jose Reyes
The Mets are a franchise in turmoil. Despite a lofty payroll, the team hasn’t reached the postseason since 2006. The manager and the general manager were canned following yet another disappointing season. There’s no doubt that the Mets have talented players, but for whatever reasons, be it late season collapses, injuries, or roster mismanagement, they just haven’t been able to put a playoff season together.
Naturally, that means that there’s going to be some speculation about the future of some of the Mets talented veterans, such as shortstop Jose Reyes. The Mets hold an option on Reyes for $11 million dollars this season, which, according to the New York Post, they will pick up.
In that same Post article, the Mets state that they will be working on an extension with Reyes. However, until one is announced, Reyes’s post-2011 fate will be up in the air. Reyes is a question mark now, as he has followed up three 5+ WAR seasons in 2006-2008 with a total of 3.7 WAR in 169 games in 2009-2010. Much of the missed time was from a calf injury suffered in 2009, but thyroid, back, and oblique injuries sent him to the bench on four separate occasions in 2010 as well.
Reyes didn’t play up to his normal standards in 2010, either. He put up a .282/.321/.428 line which, although above average for the league and well above average for the shortstop position, comes in at 14 points of OBP and 6 points of SLG lower than his typical season. The biggest standout in his 2010 statistics is a walk rate of only 5.1%, his lowest since 2005 and the culprit for his relatively low on-base percentage. Reyes also rated poorly by UZR (-5) and TotalZone (-4) and was graded as average by DRS. In Reyes’s three year all-star stretch, fielding was a key component of his value, as he was +19 by both UZR and DRS and even better by TZ and TZL.
With the uncertainty latent in these defensive stats, there’s still a chance that Reyes could be an above-average shortstop. However, given the injuries to both his core and a leg, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his range and mobility were decreased. His bat has never been elite by itself, either, and a sharp decrease in walk rate is worthy of concern, as it is one of the quickest offensive rates to stabilize. For Reyes, it was the sum of his total package of skills that made him an elite player for those three seasons, and the steps back in the two most important facets of the game should be worrisome for those around Queens.
The first order of business for the Mets will be to decide between Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes for their general manager position. The decision of what to do with Jose Reyes will be one of the biggest decisions for whoever wins this job in the coming year. Reyes is a tremendous talent, but with the uncertainty derived from all of his injuries, it’s hard to project him as an all-star going forward. When it comes to an extension, the Mets should be patient and extremely careful before putting all their chips in the pot.
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“but for whatever injuries” should be “but for whatever reasons”, I think.
Over the last 435 PA’s for Reyes, he put up a .831 OPS.
Much of those struggles were early on, and it seems perfectly understandable for a player who missed pretty much an entire year, and then had no spring training on top of it, to struggle initially.
As if the Mets have a choice. A diminished Reyes is still one of the best in baseball, even if said version isn’t elite.
No kidding, the article actually discusses whether a well above average SS is worth 11M/y.
i say trade’em. enough of this “core”crap already!! if ur going to change mgt. go all the way and get his ass out too. i’m sure boston would like him.
Cool. Trade him to the Red Sox. Asap. Ya can have Scooter and Naverro. We pick up all of his contract. No P.
Why? Lowrie might be a better player at this point.
I would strongly disagree.
this article talks about his bat (not bad but used to be better) and his defense (not bad but used to be better) but it doesnt mention his speed, which used to be amazing. didnt he steal over 70 bases one year? how has his speed been? has it declined as much as his other stats or is he still going to be fire on the basepaths when healthy? thats a big part of what he brings to the team too.
That stuff is taken into account in his wOBA and therefore in his WAR, but yes, his speed is important.
His raw speed appears to be fine (anecdotal evidence). He hasn’t attempted as many steals in recent years but that could be due simply to the missed time or it may be a conscious effort to not run himself ragged by August. All in all, I wouldn’t be overly concerned about lower number of steals (if that is what you’re alluding to) because they really don’t translate all that well to runs anyway.
Even in his worst possible season (multiple injuries, lack of spring training), he was the #8 SS in all of baseball according to WAR. I think it’s more a question of whether he can be the elite player he was before– just because he might heal more fully this offseason– or stays the way he was this year. But even if he stays as he was this year, he’s in the top third in the league, and it’s unlikely the Mets can do any better. So I hope they keep him either way- it’s just a matter of finding the right price, and now might not be a bad time to buy since his perceived value is lower than ever.
Since these are the Mets we are talking about…
So what you are saying is that the Mets are about to sign him to a 5 year 15mm/year deal right? And he’ll immediately re-rip his hamstring dancing in celebration after signing the contract
Or
He’ll not get re-signed go to the Yankees and revitalize talk about being the best SS in the league
Since Omar Minaya is gone and Sandy Alderson is in, this meme is close to being dead, but everyone should ride it well for the next few weeks!
Considering how poorly his season started, I’m not all that disappointed with Jose’s final numbers this year.
And at age 27, odds are pretty good that he bounces back and puts together a couple more all-star seasons.
This is not the turn of the century at ss, w/tejada,jeter,a-rod, nomar, larkin 0r rentaria around, reyes still is a top 5 ss. lowrie guys are u sure your mets fans or are from atl..
With Reyes, his health is truly the determining factor. During his best seasons, he managed to avoid injuries. This past year, his production varied widely, and the variation can be directly linked with period when he was injured or coming back from injury – both his early-season thyroid issue which caused him to miss ST, and late-season hamstring problems. Before he hurt his hamstring, he was playing some of his best baseball of the year.
None of this is to disagree with the article’s main conclusion, which is that his future production is something of an unknown. I just think it depends more on his staying healthy than anything else.
What late season hamstring issues are you talking about this year? He hurt his oblique (and then was allowed to go out there only hitting from the right side of the plate).