First of all, to be clear, I’m not talking about this blunder (video), where Matt Kemp was picked off by Brian Fuentes in the 9th inning of last night’s game between the Dodgers and the Angels – I’ll cover that one later today. Instead, I’m talking about the tandem gaffe between Russell Martin and Reed Johnson. On a base hit by Jamey Caroll, Russell Martin was thrown out at second to end the game before Johnson, starting at second, managed to cross home plate to score the tying run. Check out the video here.

Let’s diagram this play and try and get an idea of exactly what happened. This is the first shot from behind home plate in which we can see Reed Johnson. This comes roughly 1.45 seconds after the point of contact. Johnson was off on contact with two outs.

There’s going to be quite a few more images here; if you’re interested in tracking this play, follow the jump!

Read the rest of this entry »

Even though he can’t count Lou Piniella among his fans, Ken Rosenthal remains among the best in the business at breaking news across baseball. Naturally, that means I occasionally find myself reading The Buzz on Fox Sports’s website, where Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report some of the latest news, rumors, and other such things from around baseball.

Their most recent post as of this writing deals with the Oakland Athletics and their willingness to trade two of their more prominent chips this summer, namely Ben Sheets and Coco Crisp. Apparently, the A’s are happy with how Sheets is serving as a mentor to their young players, and may want to keep him for the rest of the season, even though they possibly wouldn’t gain any free agent compensation if he walks at the end of the contract. Crisp has a $5.75 million club option which “could fit easily into their budget.” In conclusion, the Athletics would need to “receive a compelling offer” to move Sheets and would have to be “motivated to move” Crisp. The conclusion regarding Sheets is from “major-league sources;” the conclusion regarding Crisp could simply be speculation by Rosenthal- it’s not clear.

What does all this actually mean? Mark Polishuk summed up the post over at MLBTradeRumors with the title A’s May Hold On To Ben Sheets, Deal Coco Crisp?. The question mark and use of the word “may” display uncertainty, but the language in the Fox Sports post doesn’t suggest either of those conclusions to me. First of all, the A’s would obviously have to receive a compelling offer in order to move Sheets. In trades, the trading partners are always looking to receive equal (or higher) value for their respective pieces; no player is ever moved without a “compelling offer.” Also, Polishuk’s title suggests that Crisp is more likely to be dealt than Sheets. To me, the difference between “motivated to move” and ‘a compelling offer” is simply one that could be found in a thesaurus.

Perhaps I’m expecting too much or reading the article incorrectly, but I don’t feel that I’ve learned anything at all by reading Rosenthal’s blurb – it tells me that Oakland would have to receive something meaningful back in return in order to trade Ben Sheets or Coco Crisp, but that is the case with any player. Still, some fans may interpret this article as saying there’s no chance that Sheets is moved, or perhaps that Crisp’s option will certainly be picked up.

The rumors are relatively benign – nobody’s going to be terribly excited by this news, nor should they be. Now is the time of year where trade talk heightens and Fox’s report is merely one example of misleading or meaningless language. For those who obsess over Major League Baseball like I do and like I know many of you reading do and like many of those fans who won’t ever set eyes upon this blog do, trade rumors are a regular part of our baseball watching and reading. For some reason, we care about what Ken Rosenthal and Buster Olney and other major league sources are saying. Based on the volume of rumors around the game – MLB Trade Rumors averages 104 posts per week – these sources sure have much to say. But in this case, and in many others, all this talk adds up to nothing.

As the meat of the trading season approaches, more and more trade rumors will flood the internet. When it comes to these rumors, we have to remember that, in many cases, they are just that – rumors. This isn’t meant as a blast at MLBTR or Polishuk or Rosenthal – they do a an important job in the baseball world. I find MLBTR to be an invaluable resource when it comes to news and formulating ideas, and as I mentioned above, Rosenthal is an excellent story breaker. But, at the same time, just because it comes out of the mouth of a source doesn’t make it meaningful nor even true. I think that knowledge and some critical reading just could keep all of us a little bit calmer this July.

Unfortunate news out of Toronto today as Blue Jays pitcher Dustin McGowan has injured his shoulder once again. McGowan heard a pop in his shoulder while throwing at the team’s spring facility in Dunedin, FL. McGowan will certainly miss the remainder of the 2010 season due to what will be the second surgery on the labrum in his right shoulder. It seems possible, if not likely, that McGowan will also miss the entire 2011 season as well.

In 2007, the Toronto Blue Jays starting pitchers put together a combined 20.7 wins above replacement. Dustin McGowan and his 3.9 WAR was a large piece of that group; between him, Roy Halladay, and A.J. Burnett, the Blue Jays appeared to have the core of what could be a top-flight starting rotation for years to come. However, it wouldn’t last past 2008. McGowan’s first shoulder surgery came during the ’08 season, and Burnett left for the Yankees that offseason. Of the five starters for the Jays in 2009, only Roy Halladay also pitched in 2007, and he would be traded to the Phillies after the season.

Still, the Jays have some solid starting pitchers on their roster now, including Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil, all of whom have at least 1.4 WAR on the season already. GM Alex Anthopolous and the Blue Jays hoped that McGowan would be able to return by May or June and give that rotation a boost – given the Jays’ hot start, McGowan’s addition would’ve been a sizable help in remaining in the playoff race.

Now, it seems that McGowan may go as many as three seasons between MLB appearances. The nearest analog for this situation appears to be Brewers pitcher Chris Capuano, who went from 2007 until 2010 without appearing in a game after two Tommy John surgeries, but he’s only thrown 4.2 innings for the Brewers this season.

The road back will be long and difficult for McGowan, and there’s no guarantee that he will be anywhere near the same pitcher upon his return. This is a large setback for the Jays organization, as McGowan appeared to be turning himself into one of the more reliable starters in the league back in 2008, and now his season and possibly his career is over.

I think it’s safe to say that budding star Justin Upton stole the show last night in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ game against the New York Yankees. Upton slugged two home runs and added a single, a walk, and a hit by pitch in his other three plate appearances. On the bases, Upton managed to steal second as well. It was a big game by any standard – four runs scored and four RBIs for your fantasy teams as well as a 4.29 RE24 and a rather modest .124 WPA due to the Diamondbacks building an early lead on AJ Burnett and the Yankees.

As this article is written, before the nightly stats update, Upton has compiled 1.3 WAR and is on pace for roughly 2.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances – a decent season, but slightly disappointing given his 4.8 WAR season last year. Tonight’s production, however, adds rougly 4.2 runs of value for Upton – 1.4 per home run, 0.5 for the single, 0.35 for each the BB and HBP, and 0.2 for the SB. The effort should, if I’ve calculated it correctly, push Upton’s WAR for the season up to 1.7, which would mean that Upton would now be on pace for a roughly 3.5 WAR season.

Last night’s efforts were worth nearly two million dollars and pushed Upton’s pro-rated value for the season up by four million dollars. The boost in production shows us two things – pro-rated statistics can undergo massive day-to-day fluctuation, and one player can be extremely massive in the course of only five plate appearances. Of the 1008 position players to play in the MLB this season, only 215 have accrued more than 4.2 runs of value this whole season. Upton’s 4.2 runs last night puts him in the same class as the seasons to date of Andruw Jones, Julio Borbon, and Luis Castillo.

Even though Justin Upton isn’t performing quite at the level I expected him to this year, nights like this are why I still believe he will be a superstar in this league. The Arizona Diamondbacks and their fanbase certainly hope to see more days like this out of the stupendously talented young man, and I, for one, don’t think they will be disappointed.

Overview

Despite a poor start and a 24-29 record, the Cubs only sit 7 games behind division leaders St. Louis and 5.5 games behind second place Cincinnati. They remain within striking distance if they can put together a strong stretch, but given the amount of talent on the two teams ahead of them, their playoff odds are long, likely around or below 10%. This has to be a disappointing, albeit salvageable, season to date for a team with a $144 million opening day payroll, especially given that $103 million of that payroll will be around for the 2011 season.

Buy Or Sell

The answer right now is likely “hold” – if both St. Louis (7-9) and Cincinnati (6-11) continue playing as poorly as they have in June, selling would be premature. However, the Cubs are too far out of the race to buy at this point, at seven games behind and playing just as poorly as the Cardinals this month. Given that I find the “buy” scenario to be a low probability affair, I will take a look at who the Cubs could be selling soon.

There are two obvious selling chips for the Cubs: Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly, both of whom have $13 million contracts expiring at the end of the season. Lilly would be a perfect “sell high” candidate. His 4.75 xFIP and 4.47 FIP are masked by a shiny 3.42 ERA and .234 BABIP. Lilly’s strikeouts are down and walks are up, which is unsurprising out of a 34 year old starter. Given that the Cubs could easily slide Tom Gorzelanny (2.80 FIP, 3.59 xFIP as a stater) into Lilly’s spot, the Cubs should move Lilly now if they can.

The situation with Lee isn’t quite as simple. He’s been hitting poorly this season, only posting a .327 wOBA, but much of that is based on a .268 BABIP. At 35, there’s no guarantee that this is all luck, and so there will almost certainly be some trepidation among teams looking for help at 1B. It’s likely that he’s still a good fielder, as his +4 UZR to date agrees with his +9.4 combined score from the last two seasons, so there is still some value here. Also, the potential replacements in Xavier Nady, Chad Tracy, and Micah Hoffpauir aren’t exactly desirable for even half of a down season, if it comes to that. Right now, the Cubs should hold their cards and hope that Lee can build up some value before the deadline.

Ryan Theriot’s name has been bandied about in trade rumors recently as well. Theriot is a 30 year old but still has two years of arbitration left. However, his productivity has sharply dove since a solid 2008 season, to the point where his walk rate of 4.9% is less than half that of his 3.2 WAR 2008. His ground balls are way up (56.1% this season), leading to far less power – his ISO of .030 is down 55 points from last season. ZiPS suggests a partial turnaround is possible. Theriot’s value is low right now, but if a desperate team for middle infield help comes calling, the Cubs should deal, as given Theriot’s age, there’s no guarantee that he returns to the form that compiled 5.6 WAR in 2008 and 2009.

On The Farm

The Cubs farm system has vastly improved in recent years, as shown by the graduations of Tyler Colvin, Andrew Cashner and Starlin Castro this season. Hak-Ju Lee also shows great promise at SS, and should form the middle infield of the future with Castro. Josh Vitters is a 20 year old 3B with talent to burn despite struggling at AA so far this season. Overall, Beyond the Boxscore’s composite farm system rankings has the Cubs 10th, with six top-100 prospects.

Budget

If the Cubs do end up buying, they likely won’t be able to add much in the way of salary, particularly in long term deals. The $144 million opening day number was the highest in team history, and the team has two very expensive and likely untradeable contracts on hand until 2012 and 2014 respectively in the forms of Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano. On the other hand, selling on Lee and Lilly could give some short term salary relief which could allow the team to be more aggressive next winter.

Due to a June 15th opt-out clause in the contract of 30-year-old Ryan Shealy’s contract, the Durham Bulls, AAA affiliate of the Tampa Bay Rays, lost the first baseman to International League foe Pawtucket, an affiliate of the Red Sox. With the presence of Carlos Pena in Tampa and Shealy’s advanced age, it’s hard to imagine Shealy fitting into the Rays’ plans in this season or the future. Still, Shealy had compiled a .241/.358/.518 line with Durham, an 876 OPS that ranked 11th in the league at the time of his departure. Surely, even if the Rays wouldn’t miss Shealy, the division leading Durham Bulls will.

Perhaps not. To go along with Shealy, the Bulls have the #3 IL OPS in Dan Johnson at .983 and the #5 IL OPS in Chris Richard. As far as active players go, Johnson and Richard are at #2 and #3 respectively, behind only Mike Hessman of Buffalo, the Mets affiliate, now that the Indians have called up Carlos Santana and the Pirates have called up Neil Walker.

Johnson, 30, is fresh off a season with the Yokohama BayStars. Stateside, Johnson was a slightly below average player, compiling 2.9 WAR in a touch over 1200 plate appearances, primarily as a member of the Oakland Athletics and also with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010. Johnson’s .333 wOBA simply isn’t good enough for a first baseman in the MLB, but its possible that he suffered some BABIP luck, as his batted profile doesn’t suggest a .256 BABIP. Johnson’s back to his old tricks this season, as his .293/.391/.553 line is eerily similar to his career .306/.416/.543 minor league numbers.

Richard, 36, essentially defines the journeyman. Between the majors and the minors, Richard has played for 16 different teams since 1995, with only 1005 plate appearances coming at the MLB level. Most recent was an awful 13 game stretch with a .200 wOBA with the ’09 Rays, his first MLB stint since 2003. Over all, Richard has a .324 career wOBA and has accrued 1.6 total WAR. He has spent the last four seasons with Durham outside of that stint with the Rays, and he’s been excellent, posting OBPs above .360 and SLGs above .480 each season.

Even without Shealy on their roster, Durham looks to have a reliable duo to man first base down the stretch of the minor league season. Neither has played well in the major leagues, and given their ages, they certainly don’t have prospect status. Still, with Matt Joyce, Hank Blalock, and Carlos Pena all struggling to a certain extent, one of these two may be looked at as a potential stopgap at the DH position. Many teams have strengths at positions, but not many can lose a top-15 hitter in the league and hardly bat an eye. The Durham Bulls have that luxury at first base this season.

Troy Tulowitzki seemed destined for a well-deserved first All-Star game selection this season, with a stellar 132 wRC+ combining with his solid defense at SS setting him on pace for his third 5.0+ WAR season in four years. His season will be temporarily derailed, however, as a broken wrist looks to place Tulowitzki on the DL for the next six to eight weeks

This is a huge blow to a Rockies team which sits only four games out of the NL West race. Their +44 run difference is only 10 behind the Giants and Padres and 32 runs ahead of the Dodgers. Given the talent on that team, including Ubaldo Jimenez, Tulowitzki, and others, the Rockies were certainly in position to make a run. However, without Tulowitzki, the starting infield will probably contain Melvin Mora (proj. .291 wOBA) and Clint Barmes (.283), both of whom are probably 1.0 WAR players at best and possibly at replacement level or below.

The Rockies were projected as .520-.540 team with Tulowitzki entering the season. Without him, they fall to a .485-.505 true talent team. As the Rockies will likely play somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 games in the period that he’s gone, the loss could cost the Rockies around 2 wins. In an ultra-competitive NL West, that’s not something the Rockies can afford – they need to look for a replacement.

The SS trade market isn’t terribly hot at the moment, but that may not be an issue for the Rockies, thanks to the versatility of their infielders. Ian Stewart is capable, albeit not great, at both second and third. Clint Barmes can play a Craig Counsell or Nick Punto type super-infielder role, playing at 2B, 3B, or SS. That means that the Rockies could add to any of their non-1B infield positions in order to replace Tulowitzki in the short term.

Perhaps the cheapest would be to call on Akinori Iwamura, recently designated for assignment by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Moving Clint Barmes to SS, where he’s about as good a defender historically as at 2B, would increase Barmes’s value slightly. He’s probably a below average player, as his defense at 2B isn’t great (career -6.0 UZR) and his projected wOBA is at .320. That’s still an improvement over Mora and would at the very least improve the Rockies’ bench, even though it likely wouldn’t pick up more than one win over the time that Tulowitzki is out.

If this tweet from Jon Paul Morosi about Kelly Johnson hitting the trade market is true, he may be a perfect target for the Rockies. He’s finally hitting like the various projection systems expected him to this year, with a wRC+ of 136. His projected wOBA is .371, well above that of Barmes and Melvin Mora, making him a useful piece even after Tulowitzki returns. However, given that Johnson plays for the division rival Diamondbacks and has a year of team control left, the price may be too high.

The best move for the Rockies seems to be to acquire a second baseman, as they are weak at 2B even with Tulowitzki, but there are some interesting shortstops on the market. Specifically, Ryan Theriot of the Cubs and Stephen Drew, also of the D’Backs, could draw some interest from Colorado. At this stage in the season, though, it’s hard to say which teams will be selling. As we creep closer to the trade deadline and teams fall out of the race, the Rockies may find the perfect suitor from out of left field.

Regardless, the Rockies need to shore up their infield whether it’s with a quick fix like Iwamura or a more expensive solution like Johnson. The Rockies are a very talented team, and in a division where seemingly anything can happen, four games is no large deficit. However, the season isn’t getting any longer, and they can’t afford to lose much ground over the time that Tulowitzki misses. If Dan O’Dowd can find the right quick fix and keep the Rockies within striking distance, the Rockies could be able to compete for the division title or Wild Card come September. Still, without their star shortstop and already facing a four game deficit, the team’s margin for error is small.

Behind Ubaldo Jimenez’s eight IP, one run outing, the Colorado Rockies defeated the Minnesota Twins 5-1. As much as an eight inning, one run start can be unimpressive in the major leagues, this was it. Jimenez only struck out four batters while walking two. He allowed eight hits while allowing seven line drives and only inducing two swings and misses.

Not only that, but the Twins lineup today was especially weak by their standards, as Matt Tolbert was in the lineup for Orlando Hudson at second base and Drew Butera was at catcher for Joe Mauer. J.J. Hardy’s continued absence forced Nick Punto to move over to SS and rookie Danny Valencia to start at third base. The loss of Mauer, in particular, lowers the lineups average projected wOBA from .344 – well above average – to .329, nearly average.

Given the results from Ubaldo’s start – 4 K, 2 BB, 12 GB, 4 OFB (outfield flies), 7 LD, we would have expected the Twins to score 3.75 runs, based on the average run values used from tRA. That would be 4.22 runs per 9 innings, or 3.88 earned runs per 9 innings. That’s not bad – it’s still well above average, but not what we’d expect from the pitcher who has essentially been crowned King of the World.

It’s starts like these that are the reason that we shouldn’t place Jimenez above such pitchers as Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, both pitchers who have performed at a higher level this season than Jimenez. Lee has a well-documented 15 K/BB, which would easily be the best mark in Major League history. Roy Halladay’s 2.38 ERA is supported by a superior 2.67 FIP, making him the most valuable pitcher in baseball so far.

It’s not like this start is just one isolated incident – see 5/26 vs. ARI – only 3 Ks and 1 BB, or 5/20 vs. HOU – there are times that, despite his ace stuff, he doesn’t quite dominate hitters like his ERA suggests he has.

This isn’t to say that Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t a great pitcher – I believe he’s squarely in the top 10 SPs in the league, if not the top 5. However, today’s start simply wasn’t a top-level start, even though he managed to hold the Twins to one run. We cannot crown him as the greatest pitcher in the league quite yet.

Alternate title: Fun With XOuts

Picture the situation: one out, runners on first and second. Ground ball directly to the second baseman. Inning over, right? Wrong – he boots the ball into right field, the bases are loaded, and three runs score in the inning. As they say, if you give the opposing team four outs in an inning, it will come back to hurt you.

The aforementioned scenario brings us back to the unfortunate story of Chad Qualls. Qualls is having about as unlucky a year as a reliever can have, posting an 8.46 ERA despite a 4.15 FIP. Using tRA’s formula for expected outs (xouts), seen here, we find that Qualls has compiled 76.7 xOuts on the season in his 22.1 innings pitched, which means Qualls has been suffering through nearly 3.5 outs per inning. Whether it is his defense or just the quality or location of balls in play against him, hitters have managed to reach far more often than we would expect given what we believe is in the pitcher’s control.

Looking at ERA-FIP suggests that Qualls has been unlucky to the tune of 4.29 runs per 9 innings pitched. But when we factor that Qualls would be expected to have recorded about 25.2 IP instead of the 22.1 he has actually recorded into his FIP, the number falls to 3.61 – meaning Qualls has given up 4.85 runs per 9 innings more than we’d expect. It’s no surprise that the Diamondbacks bullpen, then, is on pace to have quite possibly the worst bullpen season ever.

What about the flip side? It would be pretty easy to pitch if you only had to get two outs every inning. Just ask Arthur Rhodes. The ageless wonder (he turns 41 in October) just continues to get batters out, as he has a 2.70 FIP and a ridiculous 0.32 ERA after 28 innings (one earned run) which has come on the one home run that he has allowed this year. With the two run disparity between his FIP and his ERA, it should come as no surprise that he’s only compiled 70.1 xOuts in his 28 innings, a rate of 2.5 xOuts per inning.

Before we apply his xOuts to his FIP, Rhodes has allowed 2.38 fewer runs per 9 innings than we would expect. Accounting for the fact that xOuts suggests that Rhodes should have only completed 23.1 innings with his batted ball distribution so far, his FIP increases to 3.24 – still a solid number, but not quite as dominant as his 2.70 would suggest. We would expect, then, that Rhodes would have given up nearly 3 more runs per 9 innings than he has so far.

Basically, not only has the fact that certain pitchers have been lucky impacted their results in the innings that they have already completed, but it impacts the actual number of innings they’ve completed. In cases like Rhodes, if some base hits had fallen in, perhaps it would have resulted in another home run later in the inning. In the case of Qualls, he may have already been out of the inning if not for a defensive miscue, an infield hit, or a ball finding a foul line. Instead, the next batter hit that next home run or RBI double to inflate his ERA to an even higher level.

We already have a few tools to measure “luck” for pitchers, such as BABIP and HR/FB, but I think looking at xOuts can give us an interesting look at pitcher luck as well as providing it in a unit that is relatively easy to understand and how it relates to the game. If you’re interested in seeing this number for more pitchers, I’ve calculated it for every pitcher in 2010 with at least 10 IP here, as StatCorner’s leaderboard isn’t updated for 2010 yet. For previous years, check out StatCorner’s leaderboard.

Chipper Jones, the face of the Atlanta Braves franchise and a star since 1995, recently met with Braves officials to discuss retirement at the end of the season. Perhaps Jones doesn’t wish to see his career end in the same fashion that Ken Griffey Jr.’s did with the Seattle Mariners. Perhaps he’s simply tired of baseball. However, if he feels that his performance is no longer at a Major League level, he should greatly strongly reconsider his plans.

Yes, Jones’s offensive performance has taken a dip this year. Thanks to a .236 batting average, mostly from a .255 BABIP, Jones’s wRC+ is down to 109, his lowest mark ever. Despite that, Jones still has strong peripheral stats. His 18.8% walk rate is the highest among qualified players and is the highest of his career. His .134 ISO is still slightly below average, but if those two marks are combined with a BABIP closer to his career norm (.315) or even last season (.285), and Chipper has a line closer to .260/.400/.420, it would make him one of the top hitting third basemen in the National League, behind Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, and the surprisingly hot Scott Rolen.

There’s also reason to believe that Jones can still hit for above-average power. All three of Chipper’s home runs before last night were easily out, according to HitTracker, including a 429-foot blast off John Grabow back in April. Last night’s shot off Lance Cormier was again to dead center, not an easy task at Turner Field. Again, given the fact that even with this low level of power so far this season, any sort of regression would only serve to place Jones among the top third basemen of the league.

Simply put, anybody that can still get on base like Chipper is right now is most likely good enough to play in the Major Leagues. His defense at third base has slipped but not to the point at which he needs to be moved off of the position; even with a -4.5 or -6.5 UZR, the range that his performance over the last two seasons seems to suggest, he’s still more valuable on defense than the average corner outfielder. He’s on pace to post 2.5 WAR this season if he can reach 600 plate appearances, which is of course no guarantee, but it is a pace that suggests that Jones is still an above-average player. Even without regression in either his batting average or his slugging, Jones can still be an above average player.

If Chipper Jones feels that he must retire for personal reasons, then that’s his prerogative. There’s no doubt in my mind, however, that Jones is still a high quality major league baseball player. It would be unfortunate for both the fans as well as the Atlanta Braves if he were to end his career with quality baseball still ahead of him.