Tulowitzki Out 6-8 Weeks
Troy Tulowitzki seemed destined for a well-deserved first All-Star game selection this season, with a stellar 132 wRC+ combining with his solid defense at SS setting him on pace for his third 5.0+ WAR season in four years. His season will be temporarily derailed, however, as a broken wrist looks to place Tulowitzki on the DL for the next six to eight weeks
This is a huge blow to a Rockies team which sits only four games out of the NL West race. Their +44 run difference is only 10 behind the Giants and Padres and 32 runs ahead of the Dodgers. Given the talent on that team, including Ubaldo Jimenez, Tulowitzki, and others, the Rockies were certainly in position to make a run. However, without Tulowitzki, the starting infield will probably contain Melvin Mora (proj. .291 wOBA) and Clint Barmes (.283), both of whom are probably 1.0 WAR players at best and possibly at replacement level or below.
The Rockies were projected as .520-.540 team with Tulowitzki entering the season. Without him, they fall to a .485-.505 true talent team. As the Rockies will likely play somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 games in the period that he’s gone, the loss could cost the Rockies around 2 wins. In an ultra-competitive NL West, that’s not something the Rockies can afford – they need to look for a replacement.
The SS trade market isn’t terribly hot at the moment, but that may not be an issue for the Rockies, thanks to the versatility of their infielders. Ian Stewart is capable, albeit not great, at both second and third. Clint Barmes can play a Craig Counsell or Nick Punto type super-infielder role, playing at 2B, 3B, or SS. That means that the Rockies could add to any of their non-1B infield positions in order to replace Tulowitzki in the short term.
Perhaps the cheapest would be to call on Akinori Iwamura, recently designated for assignment by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Moving Clint Barmes to SS, where he’s about as good a defender historically as at 2B, would increase Barmes’s value slightly. He’s probably a below average player, as his defense at 2B isn’t great (career -6.0 UZR) and his projected wOBA is at .320. That’s still an improvement over Mora and would at the very least improve the Rockies’ bench, even though it likely wouldn’t pick up more than one win over the time that Tulowitzki is out.
If this tweet from Jon Paul Morosi about Kelly Johnson hitting the trade market is true, he may be a perfect target for the Rockies. He’s finally hitting like the various projection systems expected him to this year, with a wRC+ of 136. His projected wOBA is .371, well above that of Barmes and Melvin Mora, making him a useful piece even after Tulowitzki returns. However, given that Johnson plays for the division rival Diamondbacks and has a year of team control left, the price may be too high.
The best move for the Rockies seems to be to acquire a second baseman, as they are weak at 2B even with Tulowitzki, but there are some interesting shortstops on the market. Specifically, Ryan Theriot of the Cubs and Stephen Drew, also of the D’Backs, could draw some interest from Colorado. At this stage in the season, though, it’s hard to say which teams will be selling. As we creep closer to the trade deadline and teams fall out of the race, the Rockies may find the perfect suitor from out of left field.
Regardless, the Rockies need to shore up their infield whether it’s with a quick fix like Iwamura or a more expensive solution like Johnson. The Rockies are a very talented team, and in a division where seemingly anything can happen, four games is no large deficit. However, the season isn’t getting any longer, and they can’t afford to lose much ground over the time that Tulowitzki misses. If Dan O’Dowd can find the right quick fix and keep the Rockies within striking distance, the Rockies could be able to compete for the division title or Wild Card come September. Still, without their star shortstop and already facing a four game deficit, the team’s margin for error is small.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
This would have been his first ASG.
Shocking. I just took it as a foregone conclusion that he’d gone before. Thanks.
He probably deserved a trip at some point, but not a huge deal.
Should be Chris Nelson getting the bulk of the ABs (or at least I hope).
So Tulo is on pace for 5 WAR. He’s going to miss ~40 games, lets call that 1/4 of the season.
– If he replaced by a replacement level player (0 WAR) would that mean 5.0 x 1/4 = 1.25 wins?
– If the replacements might be 1 WAR,then wouldn’t the impact be (5WAR -1WAR)x 1/4…. which is about 1 win impact?
The 2 wins comes in because the replacements are significantly below replacement level (negative WAR)? Wouldn’t they need to be near -3WAR to get a 2 win impact? [(5WAR) – (-3WAR)]/4
I was going for the worst possible impact, hence the usage of “could.” I should have made that more clear.
Isn’t 1.25 the worst case with 0 WAR replacement? (are the Rockies going to plug in a negative WAR player?)
This really impacts your conclusion that they need to find a replacement (and how skilled that replacement should be)
If there current solutions are say 0.5 WAR, wouldn’t they need at least a 2.5 WAR replacement to likely have any meaningful impact for 1.4 of the season (and even then that is marginal at 0.5wins)
My apologies – but this site puts so much focus on advanced stats, and then when the #’s effectively work out to 1 win, an author decides simply to double it for worst case? Is that valid…
That worst case assumption would mean that Tulo would go on a 8-9WAR hot streak in that period… or his replacement might go on a -3WAR cold streak… are those reasonable outcomes for worst case?
That shoul be 1/4 not 1.4.
And thank you for the response Jack.
Don’t overlook the callup of Chris Nelson, as he get more PT than Mora
We’re assuming that Jim Tracy actually plays him and doesn’t just waste him on the bench.
I want to see an everyday Nelson-Barmes 2B-SS. I don’t like Barmes’ bat all that much, but he’s been clutch or something and despite UZR, his glove has kept him in the lineup.
Hopefully we will see his debut today
Seriously go get Kelly Johnson.
Given that they’re in the same division, you might as well suggest trading for Chase Utley.
Maybe, maybe not. They would trade for a high pitching prospect. Someone like Esmil Rogers (a top five prospect who doesn’t fit into the rotation in the future) might be enough.
Kelly Johnson had a great April. He’s hit .250/.358/.406 since May 1.
What’s wrong with that?
Hehehhe, exactly what I was thinking. His worse part of the season thus far features a .360 OBP? Count me in.
Get me.
I haven’t read anything about Uggla being available, but I assume he will be if the Marlins fall a couple more games out of it.
Uh Barmes has a 7.3 career UZR at second and 8.9 at short. He’s a great defender.
no one ever said he wasn’t a great defender. he’s not elite, like a chase utley, but he makes good plays and has quite a bit of positive uzr backing up his poor season thus far.
i love, and will miss having barmes and tulowitzki up the middle. both are pretty big guys for middle infielders, with good arms and good range. they’re just fun to watch on defense.
they can be frustrating at the plate though (barmes nooo)
Jack said “his defense at 2B isn’t great (career -6.0 UZR)”
Alberto Callaspo?
Pass.
What’s wrong with Eric Young Jr?
He broke a bone in his leg and has had a slow return to action. He will still be out an additional few weeks.
Tulo would have broke 6 or maybe 7 wins this year he has been killing the ball lately, Chris Nelson could very well be a long term answer at second(posting 4 different 500+ Slg seasons in the minors) if his .311/.384/.508 AAA line translates to the majors
The only person who would suggest that Barmes isn’t a good defensive second baseman is someone who is uninformed.
If the only data that you have to base your statement off of is a single defensive metric (especially without several seasons of data) then it is both lazy and inaccurate to make declarative statements about a player’s ability.
Am I missing something or where is Mora projected to have a .291 wOBA?
The Rays have a logjam at SS/2B with Bartlett, S-Rod, Brigniac, and Zobrist while the rockies have an outfield logjam. Seems like a deal could be made here.
I think going outside the organization with a trade is recommended. I thought this even before the Tulo injury and posted such on a Wigginton thread. The Rox need a good right handed bat with decent power playing 2b. Barmes is a valuable defensive player; he is excellent at 2b and decent at SS. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit well enough to be an everyday player, not on a winning team without rainmakers in the core of your lineup(ie not a smallmarket payroll like Rox). IMO he is better with the glove at 2b than Uggla, Utley, Johnson and Wiggington(your #s need to be adjusted if they disagree) and he can also play a decent SS(unlike most second basemen). E Young Jr needs work to be able play much infield so he isn’t an option. I hope Nelson is ready but I think it is a tall order.
“Run difference.” Please. Google define:differential and get “derived function: the result of mathematical differentiation; the instantaneous change of one quantity relative to another; df(x)/dx”.
Thanks.
You’re right, of course. I remember reading something on this in one of George Carlin’s books and agreeing completely, but I slip most of the time when I’m writing about it. Fixed.
Thanks.
Since the pitching staff of the Rockies induce lots of grounders, 47.7% – 4th of the MLB, I think Chin-Lung Hu might be a better fit.
I agree with cckiske’s comment. Rockies would be a better place for Hu rather than Dodger’s. Hu needs more opportunity to hit, instead of staying at bench or wasting all his time at AAA.