Overview

Despite taking the first two games of a three game set from the Angels, the Brewers remain eight games back of the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals. Given that they would need to make up that deficit on not one but two teams, the Brewers playoff odds are probably less than 1 in 40. The question, then, is how to go about preparing for 2011. The Brewers have some interesting pieces who could be on the block come July.

Buy Or Sell

The obvious question is what the Brewers will do with Prince Fielder. Fielder is in a bit of a down season, as shown by a .186 ISO against a career mark of .259. Still, Prince has a .397 OBP and a 134 wRC+. Despite a +1.7 UZR in 2009 it’s hard to imagine Fielder as that good on first base. He has a career -6.4 UZR/150, placing him squarely in the DH zone. General Manager Doug Melvin will probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade his slugger. Fielder is under control for one more season, so if the price isn’t right, Melvin will hold onto the chip and wait until either the winter or next summer. On the other hand, if Melvin is offered a package centered around an elite pitcher, be it a prospect or a young major leaguer, he would almost have to pull the trigger, given the organizational weakness on the mound.

The other piece that teams will likely give a look is Corey Hart. Somehow Hart,who hit merely 12 home runs all of last season, is the NL leader in that category with 17, despite receiving limited at-bats through most of April. Hart has had some poor BABIP luck, but ZiPS really doesn’t like Hart’s chances of maintaining the .392 146 wRC+ or, in particular, the .325 ISO. ZiPS projects hart as a .265/.330/.480 type hitter, which is unremarkable for a plodding corner outfielder like Hart. As with Fielder, the Brewers have Hart under control for one last arbitration season, meaning that the Brewers will be able to hold on until winter if they don’t get a package that appeals to them. Again, the Brewers would be seeking high level pitching at any point in their development.

Dave Bush and Craig Counsell are veterans that could potentially draw interest in a trade, but neither would be more than spare parts. Jim Edmonds has had an interesting rebirth, but, at 39, his trade value is likely low. Hart and Fielder are the major chips, as the rest of the team is either young and under team control or is suffering from poor performance, like Trevor Hoffman and Randy Wolf. Still, with the fates of Fielder and Hart up in the air, it could be an interesting summer in Milwaukee. If not, it will surely be an exciting winter.

On The Farm

Any upgrades to the Brewers farm would be welcome. First round pick Eric Arnett was recently demoted to short season ball and supplemental pick Kentrail Davis was demoted to A from A+. Max Walla, another pick from 2009, had one of the worst debuts to a professional career that I’ve seen, striking out 80 times in just over 200 short season at bats. Angel Salome and Jeremy Jeffress have each dealt with their own brands of personal problems. Needless to say, it hasn’t been a good year for Brewers farmhands.

Brett Lawrie, Jake Odorizzi, and Mat Gamel are all solid prospects, but the system lacks both depth and breadth. Any sort of talent infusion would be welcome at basically any level and any position.

Budget

This is where it gets interesting. With the contracts of Jeff Suppan, Trevor Hoffman, Bill Hall, David Weathers, Jody Gerut, Craig Counsell, Claudio Vargas, Jim Edmonds, Dave Bush, David Riske, and Gregg Zaun coming off the books, the Brewers will clear around $45 million in salary for next season. If Fielder and Hart are traded, that would be another $15 million cleared. The Brewers will see some raises for arbitration eligible players, but they should have a lot of money to play with in 2011.

The Oakland Athletics sit at 32-33, only four games out of first in a tight AL West, despite a terrible .316 wOBA from their outfielders. Oakland GM Billy Beane saw a chance to upgrade at that position today, acquiring Conor Jackson from the Diamondbacks.

This is a classic buy low from Beane. Conor Jackson has been struggling since an unfortunate encounter with valley fever in 2009. In his last 282 PAs, Jackson has a .280 wOBA. Given that he splits his defensive time between left field and first base, that’s well below replacement level even before we take into account that Jackson isn’t a great fielder. So what does Beane see in Jackson?

In the three seasons before 2009, Jackson was a well above-average hitter. Each season saw an OBP above .365 and a wOBA above .350. His walk rate hovered just above average and his strikeout rates were low, a combination leading to the aforementioned above-average OBP. There’s reason to believe that Jackson can return to this previous level of play, as the limited plate appearances he’s seen aren’t nearly enough to establish a new talent level. ZiPS believes that Jackson will be an above-average hitter for the rest of the season, projecting a .269/.351/.411 line, good for a .341 wOBA, the rest of the way.

That’s not a fantastic number for a mediocre corner outfielder, but it should provide an upgrade over Eric Patterson or a legitimate right-handed platoon partner for Gabe Gross, both of whom are mightily struggling at the plate in 2010. Beane likely believes that if Jackson has made a full recovery from his ailment that he could return to the .350 or .360 wOBAs he posted in ’06-’08, which would make him easily the best-hitting regular outfielder on the team.

The Athletics sent 24-year-old Triple-A closer Sam Demel to the Diamondbacks to complete the trade. Demel has solid but not dominant numbers with Sacramento, posting a 3.11 park adjusted FIP. He has a solid 8.7:2.8 K:BB ratio, but that FIP is supported by a very low 3.7% HR/FB rate. Including a luck adjustment (which can be seen here), Demel has a 4.03 FIP. Given the presence of Jerry Blevins, Andrew Bailey, Mike Wuertz, Craig Breslow, and Brad Ziegler, Demel is an expendable piece.

Jackson is certainly no guarantee, as the move to a larger stadium in the better league could just push his already poor 2010 numbers even lower. However, there’s a pretty good chance that Jackson becomes the best-hitting outfielder on the A’s roster with this move. Given that the price was a fringe-type minor league reliever, the risk here is low, and the potential reward high enough to warrant the acquisition.

Jason Bay’s status as a prized free agent was primarily based on one skill: his ability to hit home runs. He hit 36 in 2009, and 31 in 2008, cementing himself as one of the games premier power hitters. Indeed, CHONE and ZiPS projected Bay for 34 and 36 home runs respectively, and even the pessimistic FANS saw a 29 home run season for Bay.

Halfway through June, however, Jason Bay has four home runs. With 267 plate appearances under his belt already, that’s a pace for only 13 home runs, putting him on a level with such vaunted sluggers as Melky Cabrera and Pedro Feliz.

It’s possible that Citi Field is part of the issue – only 40 home runs have been hit there all season. Right handers attempting to pull the ball have to deal with a 335 foot left field corner which quickly juts out to 364 foot and then a 384 foot left center power alley. Bay hit 24 HRs to left field last season; through 63 games, he’s hit one.

Let’s compare Bay’s 2009 and 2010, thanks to the excellent data over at Hit Tracker Online

[Click to enlarge]

It’s a sea of red in left field, but no blue to be found. The HR that was classified in left field is close to center field. Bay’s power to left field has simply disappeared. Bay’s ISO to left field is a ridiculous .110 – of the 82 balls he’s hit to left field, only 6 have gone for extra bases. That’s after posting 42 XBH to left in 2009, and 34 in 2008.

To expect Bay to post a ridiculous .466 ISO to left field, 165% of the league average for right handers, for a second time in 2010 would be a mistake even if Bay wasn’t moving from one of the most righty-friendly parks in the league to possibly one of the least. He was about an average hitter to left in his split campaign between Pittsburgh and Boston in 2008 and was well below average to left in 2007. It would be shocking to see Bay put up two of these high octane seasons, especially in his age 30 and 31 seasons.

What we’re seeing with Bay seems to be one of the nastiest combinations of park effects, regression to the mean, aging, and simple poor luck that I can recall a power hitter encountering. It’s certainly possible that Bay has simply lost some of his pop, but right now the most likely scenario is that Bay is working through an extended slump. ZiPS projects him to add 19 more home runs before season’s end, as opposed to the 9 that his pace suggests. It’s too early to dismiss Jason Bay as a power hitter, even if he can’t replicate his awesome 2009.

Overview

Things are looking up in Pittsburgh, but that hasn’t manifested itself on the playing field this season. The Pirates are 25-39 and sit 11 games back of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central. The team has simply been inept in every phase of the game, scoring only 3.4 runs per game while allowing 4.9. The main bright spots for this team have been budding star CF Andrew McCutchen and rising 1B Garrett Jones, both of whom are hitting well. Each is on pace for a 3+ WAR season, with McCutchen looking at a potential 5 WAR campaign.

Buy Or Sell?

The obvious answer is to sell; what’s less obvious is who to sell. Octavio Dotel is an interesting flamethrowing reliever, but he’s performed right around replacement level this season. Akinori Iwamura likely doesn’t have a future with this Pirates team, but given his terrible performance this year, the return for him would be minimal, and similarly for Ryan Church and Brendan Donnelly. Right now, this Pirates team really doesn’t have anybody to sell.

Paul Maholm has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season, posting a 4.28 FIP in nearly 80 innings. He’s locked up for 2011 at $5.75M and the Pirates hold a $9.75M club option on him for the 2012 season. That’s a team-friendly contract, and not one the Pirates should be looking to sell. McCutchen and Jones clearly aren’t going anywhere. One possibility may be catcher Ryan Doumit, who is projected to post a .350 wOBA for the rest of the season. Doumit is under contract for 2011 and the Pirates hold options on his 2012 and 2013 season, but he’s already 29 years old and they may wish to make room for Tony Sanchez. Also, Doumit’s defense is suspect, as 47 of 51 attempted basestealers have been successful this season.

If the Pirates can get any sort of return for their struggling veterans, that has to be the choice for Neal Huntington, and he certainly hasn’t been afraid to do that in recent years, acquiring over 100 years of service time through trades, as he acquired players like Tim Alderson for aging major leaguers such as Freddy Sanchez.

On The Farm

The Pirates have already dipped into their farm system this season, calling up SP Brad Lincoln and OF Jose Tabata. Pedro Alvarez, the former #2 overall pick, is likely next. The Pirates have all kinds of talent waiting around in the minor leagues now, including the aforementioned Tony Sanchez and Tim Alderson.

The Pirates had the second overall pick once again in 2010 and selected high school RHP Jameson Taillon. Taillon has tremendous upside, and would be yet another boost to a growing farm system if Huntington and co. can sign him.

Budget

Attendance in Pittsburgh is very low despite PNC Park being one of the most beautiful stadiums in the big leagues. The Pirates payroll dropped below $40 million for the first time since 2007 this season. One would think that, if the chips fall correctly, the Pirates could spend this winter, but Huntington would have to believe that the team would immediately be in a setting to compete for a division title. I’m not sure that’s going to happen by next season, and so Huntington will likely be content with building with all the young talent on his roster and in his system for 2011. Any salary that the Pirates can clear this trade deadline has to be considered gravy.

“Average” is a word that contains negative connotations in our society. Nobody wants to be an average student. Nobody wants to be an average accountant. Nobody wants to be an average engineer, nor would they want an average mechanic fixing their car or an average carpenter building their house. Similarly, fans just don’t seem to get excited when they acquire an average or, even worse, below average player. Due to the limited supply of great or even good players, however, these players are absolutely necessary for a winning team. Let’s take a look at the distribution of talent as measured by WAR from last season. For simplicity’s sake, this discussion will be limited to the pool of position players.

The supply of above average players simply is nowhere near enough for every team. Even when we restrict ourselves to players receiving over 300 plate appearances, we still see 137 of 305 falling below average and 28 of those 137 below replacement level. Of course, given the technical definition of average, that’s not surprising at all.

The problem with below average players is that they’re typically not members of playoff teams. At least, this is the perception. We know that each team must start at least eight position players. All but four playoff teams since 2002 have had eight players reach 300 PAs, which means these players played a significant role . If average or below average players aren’t starters on playoff teams, we should expect the 8th best players on these teams, as defined by WAR per 600 plate appearances, to be above average players. Let’s take a look at these players.

The yellow line shows the mean for this sample, and the red line shows 2.0 WAR, or league average as defined by the statistic. Remarkably, the average for these 8th best players – regulars in many cases, important players at the very least – is 1.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances, or exactly 50% of league average. These players have been average or above 11 times; they have been below replacement.

There are few teams, if any at all, that wouldn’t benefit or wouldn’t benefit from the addition of a 1-1.5 WAR player, simply due to how many below replacement or marginal players have jobs. Of course, in some situations, the value of a player to one team is lower because of positional needs, but the data simply doesn’t support the notion of a below average player not deserving one of the 750 roster spots available in Major League Baseball. The next time you hear that your GM has picked up a player that projects as a 1-1.5 WAR player, don’t simply write him off as a guy to rot on the bench – he may be that last starter on the next playoff team.

Matt Murton has a career line of .286/.352/.436 in 1,058 MLB plate appearances. That’s a 105 wRC+, and by all accounts, he’s a legitimate defender in LF, although likely not quite as good as his +21 UZR/150 suggests. In over 400 plate appearances at AAA Colorado Springs, Murton had a park and luck adjusted .322/.392/.492 line. Take a player like that, especially platooned against left handed batters, and you have a major league average player, if not better.

Matt Murton is currently playing for the Hanshin Tigers of the highest Japanese professional league, the NPB. His contract this year calls for a $1 million salary, with a $500,000 signing bonus.

Unsurprisingly, Murton is absolutely raking. Through 262 plate appearances, Murton ranks 12th in the entire league with an .893 OPS, with an overall line of .343/.393/.500. Murton’s 8 HRs and 12 doubles would put him on a pace for 18 HRs and 27 2Bs in a 600 plate appearance season. As our own Patrick Newman stated in one of his posts answering questions about Asian baseball, it is generally accepted that the talent level in the NPB is somewhere between AAA and MLB. Even though Murton’s line is a little batting-average heavy, he continues to show that he can hit very well in talented leagues.

Still, we may not see Murton back in the United States any time soon, as the Hanshin Tigers hold a club option on him for 2011. Unfortunately, Murton is already 28 and as such would end up playing two of his prime years out of the Major Leagues. By the time he’s able to return to the States, it may be too late for Murton to truly latch on with a team and show that he can perform at a Major League level.

There are certainly teams in need of outfield help who could’ve used Matt Murton this season. The Orioles have given Corey Patterson over 100 plate appearances this season. Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera both have sub-.285 wOBAs for the Braves. The Giants gave Eugenio Velez over 50 PAs before jettisoning him. The Royals have played Mitch Maier, Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, and Willie Bloomquist in their outfield. The list goes on, containing poor outfielder after poor outfielder who have gotten chances and, in some cases, guaranteed money, to produce at a very low level.

Sometimes, teams just miss on a player. The Rockies didn’t have room for him, and the Athletics had a crowded outfield when he was in their system. However, there’s hardly an excuse for the other 28 MLB teams in allowing the Hanshin Tigers and their $1.5 million deal draw a league average player into Japan. As Murton continues to produce, this time overseas, we can only wonder what could have happened stateside.

Thanks to Patrick Newman for help with information in this piece.

“Santana”

That was Johan Santana himself before the season, when asked who is the best pitcher in the NL East.

It’s hard to imagine that Santana would answer in the same way now. Roy Halladay of the rival Phillies leads the NL in FIP at 2.32 and xFIP at 2.93 and threw a perfect game. Josh Johnson of the Marlins has struck out a batter per inning and is second and third in FIP and xFIP respectively. Even Santana’s Mets teammate Mike Pelfrey has outperformed him this year, as his 3.20 FIP and 3.80 xFIP both lead the team.

It’s not like Santana is having a bad season. His 2.76 ERA is supported by a 3.57 FIP, and whatever the cause, he’s doing a great job of keeping the ball in the park, only allowing six home runs on the season. However, a decline is clear when we examine his peripheral marks, and his strikeouts in particular. This is the first year of Santana’s career in which he has struck out fewer than seven batters per nine innings since 2001; 6.55 K/9 is over one strikeout per inning fewer than 2009.

His swinging strike rate is below 10% for the first time since FanGraphs began tracking the statistic in 2002. Most of this can be pinned on the fact that Santana’s two seamer has lost something. The same pitch which drew whiffs on 10.9% percent of pitches is now only drawing whiffs 3.6% of the time. Also, Santana is throwing the four seam fastball more often – 50% of the time instead of roughly 33%. This means fewer changeups and sliders, both pitches which draw far more swings and misses than the fastball.

Right now, Santana’s xFIP is at 4.49. His HR/9 rate is only 0.69 despite a very low 35.8% ground ball rate. Santana has never been fantastic at suppressing home runs, even though he did have five straight sub-1.00 HR/9 seasons with the Twins. He’s always lived through avoiding contact and drawing enough infield flies to the point that the fact that he allows a ton of fly balls doesn’t kill him.

This year, though, hitters are making more contact than ever, but Johan is surviving on BABIP luck (.268) and a career low HR/FB% (5.5). Thanks to spacious Citi Field, Santana managed to get around nine fly balls and six line drives without allowing a home run in yesterday’s start against San Diego. He was not able to get around the 23 balls in play, however, as he allowed eight hits en route to a mediocre six inning, four run performance. Santana didn’t show that ability to avoid contact which made him a perennial Cy Young contender in throughout the 2000s, striking out only one of the 29 Padres he faced.

Right now, Johan Santana looks as if he’s having a fantastic year on the surface, but signs are pointing to a harsh decline. High contact rates and low groundball rates are recipes for disaster, and that’s what Santana’s stuff is generating right now. So far, he hasn’t been burned by it, but the numbers suggest that this rosy season can’t last. And we know, for sure, that he isn’t the best pitcher in the NL East.

The Padres won their 35th game of the season this afternoon and pulled within a half game of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West Division lead. A big part of their success this season has been young starter Mat Latos, and Latos had another fantastic start today, striking out eight batters and only allowing two runs in the 4-2 victory.

Latos didn’t induce quite as many whiffs as he normally does in this start. In 97 pitches today, Latos drew seven swinging strikes. That 7.2% mark is 2.7 points below his mark for the season. Latos made up for it by spotting his pitches excellently, particularly on his strikeout pitches. Take a look at this pitch location graph from Brooks Baseball.

Click to enlarge

The black squares denote strikeout pitches. Latos “painted the black” on four of the eight strikeouts, and was towards the edge of the zone on two more. His location was excellent, which likely allowed him to keep eight of the nine balls hit in the air in the park. He did allow his 9th home run of the season, but the Padres offense was able to scrape together enough runs to win the game, despite four double plays.

The slider has been the big out pitch for Latos this season, with a +8.3 pitch type value and nearly +3 per 100 thrown, a fantastic mark. It was excellent once again, as he drew four swinging strikes and had a pitch type value of +1.3 with only 34 sliders thrown.

Latos entered this start with a 3.89 FIP, 3.79 xFIP, and 3.07 tERA, slightly outperforming his CHONE and ZiPS projections entering the year. Given his stuff – a 92-95 fastball and the hard slider – its unsurprising that the 22 year old has taken a step forward this season. ZiPS still projects him at a roughly 4.00 FIP, but in PETCO Park there’s a good chance that Latos can maintain the sub-3.50 ERA he brought into today’s game. The Padres have to love what they’ve seen from him so far this year, and he figures to be a big part of any potential playoff run this season.

Previous: Washington Nationals

Overview

The Astros are currently in last place in a weak NL Central and are tied with the Arizona Dimaondbacks for the worst record in the National League. It seems like the obvious play for this terrible Houston team would be to sell, but one never knows with the combination of GM Ed Wade and owner Drayton McLane, who have been known to buy in hopeless situations. At 10 games back of both St. Louis and Cincinnati, this year’s situation would certainly qualify as hopeless.

Buy Or Sell?

As mentioned above, “sell” is the obvious choice for Wade and McLane. The real question is if they can find a buyer willing to give decent value for the players that they can sell. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman have already requested trades. Other players that could help teams down the stretch include Michael Bourn, Brett Myers, and Wandy Rodriguz. It’s not likely that either Bourn nor Rodriguez will be traded as they are still under team control for two and one more years respectively, but Myers is only on a one year deal and has performed excellently so far both in terms of results and peripherals (3.01 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.81 xFIP).

Oswalt and Berkman, as the best players involved, are naturally the most interesting to watch in this situation. Oswalt is due $18 million between his 2011 salary and 2012 buyout, which severely reduces his value. The Astros would likely have to eat a good deal of salary in order to land a decent prospect. Berkman is in the last year of his contract, but there is a club option for $15 million and, given his no-trade clause, may request that this option is picked up before approving a trade, leaving the Astros in the same situation that they have with Oswalt.

Regardless, the Astros need to get some value out of those contracts, and that won’t happen with the two players languishing on a roster that only includes five position players and ten pitchers above replacement level. Myers and Oswalt have both been excellent, as has Felipe Paulino, even though he hasn’t been getting support from his team. Rodriguez has been good but his 4.00 FIP isn’t as good as he’s been in recent years. Bud Norris is a solid youngster who rounds out the rotation and figures to be part of the Astros rebuilding process.

Out of the bullpen, Matt Lindstrom has pitched well. After that, Brandon Lyon has not been nearly good enough to justify his three year, $15 million contract, and the only other above replacement relievers have been Wilton Lopez and Gustavo Chacin.

The Astros could use upgrades at every position. Humberto Quintero has been serviceable at catcher but is already 30 years old. Another 30 year old, Jeff Keppinger isn’t much of a glove at 2B and is projected to be below average at the plate for the rest of the season by ZiPS. Tommy Manzella might be the worst player in professional baseball at SS, and Pedro Feliz seems to have completely lost his bat at 3B.

On The Farm

The Astros farm system was ranked 27th by Beyond the Box Score’s system of aggregating rankings from around baseball. Their top three prospects are catcher Jason Castro, shortstop Jiovanni Mier, and pitcher Jorday Lyles. A team can never have too many of either of those three positions, so the Astros can use any player at any level at any position. Their biggest need would be at the higher minors, though, as they did manage to pickup five picks in the first three rounds in this year’s draft.

Budget

Drayton McLane has always been willing to buy, so maybe we shouldn’t read too much into the fact that the Astros opening day payroll was $10 million dollars less than it was in 2009. Still, shedding payroll should be a priority for the Astros, and the easiest way to do that would be to get out from under the contracts of Berkman and Oswalt.

On April 9th, 2003, Javier Vazquez, with the Montreal Expos at the time, struck out 14 batters in only 96 pitches. He became the first player ever to strike out 14 batters in fewer than 100 pitches; only Greg Maddux, Tom Seaver, and Grant Jackson had ever struck out at least 13 with so few pitches.

On June 8th, 2010, Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals struck out 14 batters in only 94 pitches. That’s the highest number of strikeouts ever recorded with so few pitches. It came in his first career start, besting the greatest marks players like Seaver (105.3 rWAR) and Maddux (98.8 rWAR) ever posted.

Strasburg also became the first player to record at least 14 strikeouts and no walks in his debut. Not only did Strasburg not issue any walks, he only reached three total 3-ball counts.

Stephen Strasburg’s first start was remarkable for a multitude of reasons. The sheer spectacle, the stuff, the velocity, and the strikeouts. Perhaps the most interesting thing to watch, as Strasburg’s career develops, will be his efficiency. His first start already ranks among the most efficient games ever. We already knew he had the stuff and the velocity. If he can combine that natural talent with the kind of efficiency he showcased on Tuesday, watch out MLB.