What the Pittsburgh Pirates Should Do
Overview
Things are looking up in Pittsburgh, but that hasn’t manifested itself on the playing field this season. The Pirates are 25-39 and sit 11 games back of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central. The team has simply been inept in every phase of the game, scoring only 3.4 runs per game while allowing 4.9. The main bright spots for this team have been budding star CF Andrew McCutchen and rising 1B Garrett Jones, both of whom are hitting well. Each is on pace for a 3+ WAR season, with McCutchen looking at a potential 5 WAR campaign.
Buy Or Sell?
The obvious answer is to sell; what’s less obvious is who to sell. Octavio Dotel is an interesting flamethrowing reliever, but he’s performed right around replacement level this season. Akinori Iwamura likely doesn’t have a future with this Pirates team, but given his terrible performance this year, the return for him would be minimal, and similarly for Ryan Church and Brendan Donnelly. Right now, this Pirates team really doesn’t have anybody to sell.
Paul Maholm has been the team’s best starting pitcher this season, posting a 4.28 FIP in nearly 80 innings. He’s locked up for 2011 at $5.75M and the Pirates hold a $9.75M club option on him for the 2012 season. That’s a team-friendly contract, and not one the Pirates should be looking to sell. McCutchen and Jones clearly aren’t going anywhere. One possibility may be catcher Ryan Doumit, who is projected to post a .350 wOBA for the rest of the season. Doumit is under contract for 2011 and the Pirates hold options on his 2012 and 2013 season, but he’s already 29 years old and they may wish to make room for Tony Sanchez. Also, Doumit’s defense is suspect, as 47 of 51 attempted basestealers have been successful this season.
If the Pirates can get any sort of return for their struggling veterans, that has to be the choice for Neal Huntington, and he certainly hasn’t been afraid to do that in recent years, acquiring over 100 years of service time through trades, as he acquired players like Tim Alderson for aging major leaguers such as Freddy Sanchez.
On The Farm
The Pirates have already dipped into their farm system this season, calling up SP Brad Lincoln and OF Jose Tabata. Pedro Alvarez, the former #2 overall pick, is likely next. The Pirates have all kinds of talent waiting around in the minor leagues now, including the aforementioned Tony Sanchez and Tim Alderson.
The Pirates had the second overall pick once again in 2010 and selected high school RHP Jameson Taillon. Taillon has tremendous upside, and would be yet another boost to a growing farm system if Huntington and co. can sign him.
Budget
Attendance in Pittsburgh is very low despite PNC Park being one of the most beautiful stadiums in the big leagues. The Pirates payroll dropped below $40 million for the first time since 2007 this season. One would think that, if the chips fall correctly, the Pirates could spend this winter, but Huntington would have to believe that the team would immediately be in a setting to compete for a division title. I’m not sure that’s going to happen by next season, and so Huntington will likely be content with building with all the young talent on his roster and in his system for 2011. Any salary that the Pirates can clear this trade deadline has to be considered gravy.
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Poor Pirates have no contract year veterans to swap for low-A players this year.
Somehow they’re in better shape going forward than a few teams though.
If the Pirates losing was to continue throughout the rest of the season, and they were to be in position to draft Anthony Rendon, their lineup in 2013 would be:
C-Tony Sanchez
1B-Pedro Alvarez
2B-Neil Walker
3B-Anthony Rendon
SS-Still nobody for certain
LF-Jose Tabata
CF-Andrew McCutchen
RF-Garrett Jones
With a rotation that could include any of Duke, Maholm, Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Tim Alderson, Jeff Locke, Nathan Adcock, Ross Ohlendorf, Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie.
I think if they could acquire a good MLB shortstop at the deadline, without giving up too much, they could be in excellent shape for the 2013 season.
If I was GM, I would be a buyer in the shortstop market. Could Jose Reyes, Stephen Drew, Ryan Theriot, or Reid Brignac be available?
Brignac isn’t going anywhere. He is young and controlable for the next 6 years. If your going to get a Tampa Bay shortsop it would more than likely be Beckham or Bartlett.
Tampa knows that Brignac is better than both of them.
Reyes is highly unlikely because of the $$$ he will demand.
Drew and Theriot are both plausible however.
I would give the edge to Baltimore in the race for Rendon. I think Pittsburgh is a tick better than O’s right now and they don’t get beat up by the AL East throughout the season.
We’re definitely worse than the O’s. No doubt about that. Our run differential is the worst in baseball. If we had to play in the AL East with our pitching staff it would be historic. The O’s may finish the season with a worse record but it will only be because they had to play Boston, Tampa and NY a whole bunch. Rest assured, we will have the worse team.
I’m not sure what his stock currently is, but as late as last year, people have been mentioning Chase d’Arnaud as the Pirates’ SS of the future, with a likely ETA as early as next year. 🙂
If he was hitting well, I would at least give him some hope, but why settle for another all-glove shortstop.
The Pirates had the best shortstop ever in Honus Wagner, it’s sad to see who they’ve had running out there for the past 30 years.
Hitting is the least of their worries. They haven’t had anything but 4th and 5th starters filling out their rotation for years.
The ’06, ’07, and ’08 first round picks will end up killing them. I’m not sure if they can get a promising SP staff together before their young hitters start approaching a contract year.
CA-Weiters-’07
1B-Smoak-’08
2B-Walker
SS
3B-Rendon
CF-McCutchen
LF-Tabata
RF-Alvarez
SP-Kershaw-’06
SP-Taillon
?
Now that would have been promising!
Alvarez and Smoak were in the same draft.
I think that’s a very valid concern.
McCutchen reminds of me of a RH Carl Crawford. He has the potential to be a top 10 Major Leaguer for the next 10 years.
Pittsburgh needs to go ahead and buy out his arbitration years and possibly a year or two of Free Angency, ala Ryan Braun. He is worth every bit of a 7 yr $40 mil deal right now.
This would show Pirates fans that Neil Huntington is serious about getting better, and eventually, wait for it……………….contending.
hehe, lets not jump on the Huntington bandwagon quite yet. Lets see what happens in a few years. Yes, he has the talent there, but he has had it in the past only to turn around and trade it off to anybody with his cell number. Heck, I am surprised he hasnt traded anybody to the independant Northern League yet.
It’s a pretty common misconception among casual Pirate fans that Huntington inherited and traded away a lot of talent; and it’s extremely frustrating to listen to. Countless people like Cidron will happily complain that the Pirates traded away all their good players to save on payroll, but never bother to check on how the Nate McLouth/Xavier Nady/Jack Wilsons of the world were doing. Huntington inherited a roster more bereft of talent than the Astros, go back to mondesishouse if you want to commiserate with yinzers about how much you miss Nate McLouth’s “gold glove” defense.
I agree 100% with Dave. I think the Pittsburgh organization deserves more credit than they are receiving. Just because Pirate fans though McLouth was their best offensive player at the time (some did, not sure why) McLouth wasn’t that good. Good for an under .500 team but not good for a team that hopes to contend.
McLouth may have been their best offensive player at the time. That was the problem. (Well, Doumit or Freddy maybe. Jones and McCutchen didn’t come up till after the trade.)
I am starting to get a little worried about Huntington’s eye for talent, I really wish he’d just quit trading for these washed up prospects like Milledge, Clement, LaRoche, and others. I’d rather see our own young talent get chances instead of these AAAA guys, but I think they’re coming along with Walker, Tabata, and Alvarez. He’s acquired some decent guys on the cheap like Jones and Hanrahan mainly, but the Bay trade looks awful, the Nady deal was good, and the other ones are up in the air. Not the best track record so far.
I would say the problem with the Pirates’ trades so far has been receiving too many major league ready talents. I realize that they were trying to jump start the MLB team and didn’t want to suffer through even worse historic levels of suckage, but the best return on vet for prospect deals is going to be in the low minors acquisitions.
Byran Morris is looking pretty good and could very well be the best part of the Bay trade. If he pans out, it would be a great trade. The best part of the Nady trade has just arrived in Pittsburgh in Tabata. Ohlendorf and Karstens are decent enough players, but not difference makers.
Essentially, the Nady trade gave us 1 fungible starter/long reliever (near replacement level), 1 back end rotation starter (average to below average), and 1 possible above average player in Tabata.
The Bay trade gave us 1 replacement level outfielder, 1 average to below average infielder (now utility player), and a possible above average starter in Morris.
In the end, these two trade are actually quite similar in return, the only difference is Morris is further from MLB.
Everyone likes to compare the Teixeira trade to the Bay trade. First, remember that Tex was not only worth more, but also packaged with Ron Mahay, who was a very good reliever for both Texas and Atlanta that year.
The MLB ready pieces of that deal (Salty and Matt Harrison) have been as disappointing to Texas as LaRoche and Moss were for the Pirates. Elvis Andrus was seen at the time (18 yrs old in 2007) to have an MLB ETA of 2010, meaning the Rangers would have to wait 2.5 years for the return. Neftali Feliz was an 18 year old flamethrower in rookie ball, but it was unsure what role he would settle into or whether he could harness his powers.
As it has turned out so far, Andrus looks like the true gem of the deal, and Feliz has possibilities, but probably as a closer.
When you really look at things in this way, it’s natural the the Pirates will have to wait to see whether Morris will become an above average starting pitcher in MLB. He could be up to MLB next year, and that would actually be on the same timetable that was expected of Andrus when acquired.
It’s a bad idea to compare any trade to the Teixeira deal. Atlanta made a historically bad trade. Epstein is a much better GM than Wren. They were not ever going to get anything close to the players Texas got for Teixeira.
Time will tell. We’ll have to wait and see what the Pirates do. Nothing the Buccos do surprises me anymore. Remember the Matt Morris deal?
The Matt Morris deal which was carried out by a previous GM? After which the whole management of the team was fired, from GM to team president?
The new regime has made just one completely terrible trade, and that was in acquiring Aki Iwamura. The Bay trade will be bad if Morris doesn’t work out, but they acquired two legit prospects in LaRoche and Morris.
Yes, the Matt Morris deal was carried out by the previous GM, Littlefield (or Littlebrain as Bucs fan affectionately call him). Then, yes, the entire management of the team was let go. Littlefield knew he was gone when he made the move. I’m surprised he didn’t end up as a scout or something for Sabean afterwards. I haven’t heard a single rational explanation for that trade.
GrtSm — I’d say Gorzelanny and Grabow for Hart, Ascanio, and Harrison has a chance at being more completely terrible than the Iwamura trade. Iwamura has been beyond awful, but the Pirates didn’t give up anything much for him (Jesse Chavez seems likely to be odd man out in the Braves’ bullpen), so the net result is basically to lose them some more games this year. Gorzelanny, if he keeps up his return to form, is someone the Bucs could really use. And so far the return has been disastrous, with both pitchers blowing their shoulders out (without contributing anything before doing so).
Doumit’s 4/51 CS this season is suspect? What must “complete moral suckitude” look like?
However, I totally disagree that they should not trade players who are under team control/have team friendly contracts. That’s all they have to deal and still have a very long way to go with their farm system. For me, I love Jones, but now that he’s proven he wasn’t a fluke, dump him for somebody that loves the power. The Braves come to mind, they drafted him and eventually dumped him when he flamed out in A ball. I’m sure there are scouts in several orgs who will always love Doumit’s bat and will beg for their team to grab him and move him to 1B. Maholm is probably stuck, but they should try and dump him on a team like Minnesota with a quickness.
I agree that they should not take anyone off the table, but with the likes of Jones and Maholm, they need to be blown away before making the trade. These guys are relatively cheap and effective and are not immediately being pushed.
I don’t think PIT should be in sell or trade mode.
I think they should be in “just play the kids and let them develop, as STL and CHC gets older and loses FA’s”.
There is likely not a “good move” PIT can make. There’s no key piece that can yield a few prospects (that PIT is willing to trade). There’s also no budget to sign someone that can improve the team significantly.
PIT is going to have to hope that all the drafted talent develops and succeeds at the ML level, while the Cards and Cubs age and lose key players. PIT and CIN are looking to turn the clock back to 1975-1979.
The problem with some of these “What XYZ should do …” posts is that there often are not teams willing to make the trades that XYZ needs to make, and prospects generally do not pan out as once thought.
Remember the good ol’ days when we had this offense
1B Laroche 2B Sanchez SS Wilson 3B Ramirez LF Bay CF McLouth/Morgan
RF Nady Even though we still lost we gave teams a scare
Please tell me when that lineup existed. Other than in your imagination. I guess that it’s a lineup that could have been, but while we’re playing that game why don’t we imagine what would happen if they were Biff Tannen and knew everyone’s future before they were drafted. This team would be amazing! But on your fanciful team, who would be pitching and playing the other positions? Who would play short while Wilson was hurt? Where would the Buc’s get the money to have the Met’s payroll? Why would you imagine a downgrade from Jones to LaRoche? Why would you want McClouth, a guy performing at level below that of a replacement player, over anybody? Even Milledge has been better than McClouth this year. Nady has been worth a total of 0.2 wins the last two years. Why would you want him? You say that your imaginary team would lose, but give teams a scare. Do you get a pennant for scaring teams year in and year out? If I were a GM, I think I’d try and win. But that’s just me.
CircleChange11is 100% right listen to him more often
change that to 99% Iwamora is overpaid and should get out of there
The pirates will have to wait 4 years until they contend again and someone should tell the Pirates president to stop hiding their money. 33 million is there payroll but that is not all they got. If they had that much money they would be allowed to compete or the MLB would do something like the NFL like giving money to teams.
Why spend more if your still going to lose 90+ games?
They have spent in the draft, and have worked at Latin America. And they haven’t hidden anything, they have said that they will spend more when it is time to compete.
Fan and analysts don’t like to hear comments like that, but it’s true.
Why should teams double their payroll just to finish 15 games out instead of 25? There isn’t likely 30M worth of free agents that PIT can sign that would take them into the playoff hunt.
Here’s the problem franchises like PIT have …. “They can do everything right, and still fail if the other teams make good moves.”
I always compare it to something like track or triathlon … you could have the best training in the world, best nutrition, make a ton of progress … and still get your ass kicked if/when more talented teams (i.e. larger natutral resources) have a good day … and they have a good day more often than not. You cannot control your competition, and the disparity in resources is very real. TBR was in a very unique situation, both being an expansion team, and sucking like hell. Given that many 1st round picks they were bound to be good at some point, right?
There’s also the case of the “buy in” to the playoffs. It’s not just spending 90M on a team, but spending 90M on a good team, and being able to get those good players for a good value while competing for those guys with other teams. The teams that “just spend” end up over-paying for the Derrick Bell’s of the world or spend just to say that they’ve spent.
People often talk in these scenarios as if the team being discussed is operating and every other team is standing pat or being inactive.
<i.Given that many 1st round picks they were bound to be good at some point, right?
Are we really not past this fallacy yet? Price, Longoria, and Upton were the result of picking in front of everybody else (include Garza if you want because Young was a #1 overall, but that trade was all about Friedman de-pantsing Smith), but the rest of that team came from savvy acquisitions and a superior development program.
Alright, what the hell? Why I am I suddenly so incompetent using italics tags?
Test
Lets give a shout out to Even Meek for pitching good on a “Below average team”
“The new regime has made just one completely terrible trade, and that was in acquiring Aki Iwamura.”
While Iwamura’s performance has been less-than-stellar, it’s tough to call that a “terrible” trade. Jesse Chavez is hardly lighting it up in Atlanta; in fact, his name has come up as a possibility to be sent down when Resop is called up. So the Bucs gave up a below-replacement-level reliever for a chance at a capable 2B. It didn’t work out, but it’s hardly a terrible trade.
Huntingdon’s m.o. is clearly to take all the semi-interesting players he can find, throw them at the wall, and see what sticks. It’s tough for fans every time one of them flames out (Clement, Iwamura, Moss, Hansen, etc.) but if you’re taking a trial-and-error approach you have to be prepared for lots of error.
I think the point is that if the Bucs would not have traded for him, TB would have just non-tendered him. Also, TB turned around and picked up Soriano for Chavez. Pittsburgh could have had a closer who is tradeable for Chavez and instead have Aki. Some folks were on here trying to justify that deal at the time, and it just keeps getting worse for them. Bad deals happen, just suck it up.
If Soriano is so tradeable, how come he only netted the Braves Jesse Chavez? He had accepted arb – he was under control.
What I think the Bucs should do is build around the core that they have. If a deal comes along at the trading deadline that may or may not help them this year but will be an important piece for next year, take the deal even if it means they will have to negotiate with the player.
This team now has a good foundation when you look at Tabata, Walker, Cutch, Jones, Pedro. What they need is to add on to them, a SS, maby a catcher for 2 years that can catch and hit 260. Probably 2 seasoned major league pitchers for the next 2 years, like a Bob Lilly type, someone that gives you innings and always keeps you in the game. They need to add just enough to make this young core respectable until the next wave is ready, I am thinking in about 2 years, pitching and catching will be here.
I’m not sure why you’d call it a fallacy and then list a few of the big reasons why the Rays are good (perhaps even the biggest reason … Longoria). Anyway, I’m open to the idea that I said something really dumb, since it does happen. So, I thought I’d look into their players and see how they got “here” (i.e., good today).
[1] Ben Zobrist – Trade w/ RP for Aubrey Huff. Started at SS, stunk. career turned around after he went to a “swing mechanic”. What did the Rays do here? Seems like they were in a position to let someone play SS when teams with money (or expectations) would have had other options. BZ goes to a hitting instructor and turns his career around. So, had Zobrist not gone out of the organization for instruction, he’d likely be out of baseball or in MiLB.
[2] Reid Brignac – 2nd rd pick in 2004. 6 years later, he’s a figure.
[3] Carl Crawford – 2nd rd pick in 99. Great player. This is a great pick for TBR. You have to give them credit for this selection.
[4] Carlos Pena – 6th team for former 1st round pick. TBR signed him to a MiLB deal, invited to ST, sent to minors, signed to MLB when Greg Norton got hurt. Turned his career around. This is pure luck. Good for Pena and the Rays, but it’s not like the Rays did anything, other than sign something off the scrap heap, demote him, and then resign him after an injury, and something clicked after a slow start. Again, I am not assumming TBR knew he’d be this good anymore than I give StL credit for knowing Ryan Ludwick would be an All-Star.
[5] James Shields – 14th rd pick. I’m not giving TBR any great credit for this selection, anymore than I would give my Cardinals credit for knowing that Pujols was really the best talent in the draft … and then waiting until the 14th round to nab him. Nor do I credit the White Sox for drafting Mark Buehrle in the 38th round and thinking “Man, did we just steal a future HoF contender.”
I really like the Rays. But, they have had the benefit of numerous 1st picks (we can see what impact that will have for Washington with Strasburg and Harper), and perhaps equally important, they have been so poor (both in performance and in budget) that they have had no choice but to [1] let the kids play, and [2] take cheap risks (like Pena).
PIT has made some horrible decisions in the past, IMO … likely from being “in the middle” regarding letting the kids play versus signing veterans to improve/contend (like the TBR did with Canseco, Vaughn, Boggs, etc). Had PIT just went with the “play the kids” philosophy and lost a lot of games (while guys developed) combined with the injection of some very high 1st round picks, their situation might be very different.
Now, if the Rays’ batting coach worked with Zobrist and Pena like say, Dave Duncan does with pitchers in StL, I will turn around and give TBR much more credit … and would be joyous about it. I hate to chalk things up to “luck”, but sometimes that happens.
Sometimes things just work out … the Good Lord willing. *grin* The biggest thing the TBR have seemingly done is to “let the kids play” and the kids that do well stay, those that don’t are replaced with other kids.
What am I missing that is something that TBR has done that is unique and deliberate?
You’ve made it out like they are loaded top to bottom with former number ones, when that’s not the case – three players on their team came from drafting high. Any team that bottomed out for a couple of years could conceivably get the same haul. The Rays are where they are for reasons far beyond sucking for a decade and collecting #1 picks.
I said …
Give any sucky team 3 or 4 #1 overall picks, and they’re bound to be good at some future point, wouldn’t ya think?
What if WAS were to have the #1 pick in 2011?
What effect would Strasburg, harper, 2011 #1 pick, combined with other high 1st round picks, and that’ll turn around a franchise.
Now whether they can continue that success when the contracts run out is another situation entirely.
What I was saying about TBR is that they are not as good as they are because of [1] completely one-sided trades, [2] having a much larger percentage of their 1st round picks pan out as compared to others, [3] having their minor league coaches develop qua;lity MLB players from mid-draft picks, and/or [4] Sign unknown talent out of other regions (Latin America, japan, etc).
I’m trying to figure out what TBR has done that other organizations haven’t?
My opinion was that they: [1] Had quite a few #1 picks, [2] let their prospects play instead of veterans, and [3] got lucky on some players.
All the factors just seemed to “hit at once”. That ain’t happening in PIT. They’re “luck” struck with Jones, but their #1 picks aren’t MLB quality player yet, and by the time the position players are “mlb ready”, the young pitchers might not be.
People talk as if TBR did something that many organizations could replicate if they were “smart enough”. I’m not seeing that.
No mention of what the Pirates got in return for McLouth? Gorkys, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton? That trade could go down in history similar to the one that the Indians made when they traded Bartolo Colon to the Expos for Sizemore, Phillips and Lee. I’m not comparing Gorkys to Sizemore, but Locke has looked dazzling at times and has some serious potential. Gorkys is a great glove and could be a similar player to Nyjer Morgan. Morton was terrible this year, but once he gets over his confidence issues he has the ability to contribute as a quality starter. McLouth has been terrible this year and might soon be riding the pine.
Oh and who was assistant GM of Cleveland and head of player development at the time of that trade? Neal Huntington