In 2009, only 41 pitchers managed to compile 10.0 runs above replacement in relief. Chicago White Sox left hander Matt Thornton, through the first two months of the season, is one of six pitchers to have accomplished this feat in 2010. Thornton has a spectacular 10.95 strikeout/walk differential (SO-BB), which is fifth in the major leagues among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. Thanks to this utter dominance, Thornton is running a spectacular 1.59 ERA, 1.07 FIP, and 2.09 xFIP through the first two months of the season.

This emergence, remarkably enough, comes with Thornton at the ripe old age of 33. Thornton struggled in his first two seasons with Seattle, particularly in 2005 when he posted a -0.9 WAR season. The Mariners then traded him to the Chicago White Sox for Joe Borchard. Thornton blossomed in Chicago, putting up two straight 1.0 WAR seasons. Thornton leaned heavily on his mid-90s fastball and rode an 8.00+ K/9 to a 3.70 FIP.

Over the last three seasons, however, Thornton has emerged as one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. He’s consistently recorded well over a strikeout per inning and has severely reduced his walk rate. Over his last 162.3 innings, Thornton has recorded a whopping 4.5 WAR.

The apparent cause of this success is his blazing fastball. Thornton is extremely reliant on the number one, using it a whopping 90.6% of the time – over 3% more than the next highest qualified reliever. Hitters have had an extremely difficult time with it. The 17.4% whiff rate is nearly three times the league average, and even when hitters do manage to make contact, it’s much more likely to wind up as a foul ball (24.6%) as opposed to in play (12.8%). Even when it’s in play, hitters haven’t been doing much with it. As the final nail in the coffin, hitters can’t simply take and expect a ball – Thornton’s fastball has a 70% strike rate, about 6 points above the league average. As such, Thornton’s fastball has been worth over 10 runs according to pitch type linear weights, the most valuable pitch to any reliever in baseball, eclipsing Carlos Marmol’s slider by over a run.

It appears that a huge part of Thornton’s development as a pitcher has been figuring out how good his fastball really is. There’s a direct relationship between how often Thornton throws his fastball and how successful he has been over the course of his career.

I don’t need to tell this audience that correlation doesn’t imply causation, but personally, I doubt that a lower FIP has caused Thornton to throw his fastball more often. Thornton’s fastball is a fantastic pitch, and his secondary stuff, although good, is dependent on his fastball, as he allows his slider to be put in play at an above average rate. Until batters show that they can consistently make good contact against his fastball, he needs to keep going to it. If he can keep drawing whiffs on it as he has this season, he will undoubtedly continue to thrive.

Wikipedia:

Parasitism is a type of symbiotic relationship between organisms of different species where one organism, the parasite, benefits at the expense of the host.

In the context of baseball, the host would be an organization and the parasite would be a player who occupies a roster spot, is owed a large sum of money, and offers nothing in terms of production. Here is my objective definition of a parasitic contract:

– The player is occupying a spot on the 25-man roster (and, as such, the 40-man roster)
– The player is owed at least 5 million dollars.
– The player is projected at or below replacement level.

So, for example, while Barry Zito, Vernon Wells, and Alfonso Soriano all have “albatross” contracts, they don’t fit this definition because they are at least producing some wins above replacement. Kei Igawa doesn’t count despite being owed eight million dollars by the Yankees, as he is not on the 25-man roster.

Here are some examples of parasitic contracts currently in MLB.

Oliver Perez
2010-2011 Salary: $24M. Projected FIP: 5.19

This quote from an unnamed Mets’ player via the New York Post pretty much sums it up:

“At some point you have to cut bait,” he said. “You owe him a lot of money, but for what?”

Perez has been awful this year. His walk rate has remained above 7 per 9 innings and now his K/BB is below 1.00. His 6.08 xFIP echoes his xFIP from last season. His ZiPS (R) projected FIP of 5.19 appears generous, and is just above replacement level for starters, but certainly close enough to be included in this definition. The Mets owe him about 20 million dollars for the rest of this season and for 2011, and there is no sign of Perez regaining his limited productivity of 2008 (+1.3 wins).

Jeff Suppan
2010 Salary: $12.5M. 2011 Buyout: $2M. Projected FIP: 5.07.

Suppan’s 4.84 FIP actually doesn’t look that bad, but he’s compiled it in 12 relief appearances against only two starts with Milwaukee this season. As such, Suppan has been slightly below replacement level this year. Once again, Suppan’s projected FIP is actually above replacement level, but that includes his performance as a reliever as well as time split between starting and relieving. Again, as with Perez, that’s close enough for me to include him in this definition. Brewers GM Doug Melvin has performed all sorts of general managerial gymnastics to keep Suppan on the active roster this season, including 60-day DL shuffling of Mat Gamel and David Riske.

John Grabow
2010-2011 Salary: 7.5M. Projected FIP: 4.53

Grabow has been an absolute bust in the Cubs’ bullpen. He showed some promise after coming over from Pittsburgh last season, posting a 3.24 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 25 innings. However, that masked a problem with fly balls and a 4.90 xFIP. The home runs have come in bunches this season, as Grabow has allowed five in only 20 innings, leading to a 9.45 ERA, 6.57 FIP, and an only slightly better 5.23 xFIP. He hasn’t even been effective against LHBs, walking 7 of the 37 he’s faced. The 4.53 projected FIP puts him as a slightly below replacement level pitcher.

Eric Chavez
2010 Salary: 12M. 2011 Buyout: 3M. Projected wOBA: .313

A .313 wOBA isn’t good, but it can be serviceable at some positions, including 3B, which Chavez used to man with expertise. However, Chavez has only even taken the field for five innings this season. He’s spent a majority of his time at the DH position, where a roughly average performance is needed to be above replacement level. Chavez’s injury problems have completely derailed his career. His line in 123 PAs – his most since 2007 – is a putrid .234/.276/.333 despite a BABIP of .301. Chavez compiled a respectable 32 WAR in his career, but his time as a MLB level player are over.

—
Did I miss any? Let me know in the comments.

It must feel like the Mets’ three game shutout streak from last week was ages ago. On Monday night, the San Diego Padres unloaded 18 runs on the Mets. The New York pitchers – Hisanori Takahashi, Raul Valdes, Ryota Igarashi, Jenrry Mejia, and Oliver Perez – allowed 28 of the 48 batters they faced to reach base. Fifteen of those hitters reached via the single. Two more hitters recorded doubles and another pair homered. The last nine reached on eight walks and a hit by pitch.

That line comes out to a .550 wOBA for the Padres on the night. That line suggests that the Padres should’ve scored about 13.5 runs in this game — still an outburst of offense but not quite the staggering number of an 18-run game. Despite only hitting four extra base hits, the Padres managed to keep the runners scoring, and the eight walks didn’t clog the bases.

What’s really remarkable is how the Padres hitters managed to be successful despite hitting so many ground balls. Seventeen of the 35 balls put in play by the Padres were on the ground, and although three of them resulted in double plays, a whopping nine of them resulted in hits. The resulting .529 average on ground balls is more than double the league average. Even a streak of hard hit ground balls tends to result in a few going straight to an infielder. The Mets’ infield defense of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Alex Cora, and Ike Davis isn’t exactly a team of butchers, either. The Padres just managed to “find the holes” and “hit it where they ain’t.” When that happens, much like it did against Milwaukee on April 30, there just isn’t much that a team can do.

That said, the Padres certainly didn’t just luck their way into the victory. As a team, the Padres hit 18 balls in the air, including eight line drives. The eight walks indicated patience at the plate. Adrian Gonzalez did have two hits and two walks, but most of the production came from elsewhere in the lineup. Jerry Hairston, Jr. hit a grand slam. Nick Hundley had three hits, including a double, as did Chris Denorfia. In fact, the only position players for the Padres not to reach base were pinch hitter Tony Gwynn, Jr. and second basemen David Eckstein — the same David Eckstein that entered play on Monday with a .348 OBP.

It’s hard to believe that a team with a lineup that seemed to consist of Adrian Gonzalez and then spare parts is in first place at the end of May. However, the win tonight allowed them to stay two games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West as we enter June. Obviously, there are too many games left for any lead to be safe, but the Padres have shown themselves to be contenders with some tremendous run prevention and enough offense to win some baseball games. If Monday was at all a sign of things to come from this offense, the National League better watch out.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock this weekend, chances are that you’ve heard that Phillies ace Roy Halladay threw a perfect game against the Marlins on Saturday. It was the 20th such performance in Major League Baseball history. Remarkably, it was the second this season, the first year in which two perfect games have occurred since 1880. The first of 2010, of course, was Dallas Braden’s perfect game against the Rays on May 9th.

Let’s compare how the two pitchers recorded their 27 consecutive outs:

Braden: 109 pitches, 77 strikes, 6 K, 7 GB, 10 FB (3 IFFB), 4 LD, +.355 WPA
Halladay: 115 pitches, 72 strikes, 11 K, 8 GB, 8 FB (2 IFFB), 0 LD, +.888 WPA

It seems to me that Halladay was unquestionably the more dominant pitcher in his perfect game, which makes sense, given the difference in skill between the two pitchers. Halladay didn’t allow a single line drive and struck out five more batters.

Most remarkably, Halladay performed his perfect game in a situation that nearly required perfection, as the Phillies only managed to plate one run against Marlins ace Josh Johnson. Because of the tight score, Halladay accrued a fantastic +.888 WPA. That mark is the highest for any pitcher since June 26th, 2005, when A.J Burnett and the Florida Marlins defeated the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1-0.

The point of this post certainly isn’t to belittle Dallas Braden’s perfect game in any way. It was a spectacular achievement and will go down in baseball history as such. Roy Halladay simply increased his own position in the history books with one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time.

Lou Piniella’s little buddy Ken Rosenthal reported today over his twitter that Cubs SP Ryan Dempster has agreed to defer three million dollars of his $12.5M 2010 salary at little or no interest, in order to allow the Cubs the financial flexibility necessary to make a deadline deal.

This has some similarities to the restructuring of Scott Rolen’s contract last December. In that case, the upside of the money lost due to inflation was a contract extension. In this case, the only upside for Dempster appears to be a Cubs team that is improved through a trade. This story is still in its infancy, so we may see some details change before all is said and done. The MLBPA may attempt to oppose this, as players aren’t simply allowed to take pay cuts, and given inflation, this is simply a loophole around that rule.

After today’s loss, the Cubs are now 23-26 and five games out of a playoff spot. They’re certainly not dead, although they are running out of time. With Aramis Ramirez ineffective and possibly injured, they could need a third baseman. Mike Fontenot has performed well this season, but much of that is based on a .352 BABIP, and so second base may also be a point of upgrade. The bullpen has been the main issue for the Cubs, as their relievers have allowed a 4.80 ERA. Both FIP and xFIP suggest that the group has been much better, but John Grabow has been remarkably ineffective and Carlos Zambrano will return to the rotation soon, so the most likely trade target for the Cubs would appear to be for a reliever to pick up the 8th inning behind Carlos Marmol.

The Cubs already had a 144 million dollar payroll entering this season, so it appears that, at this point, they are either unwilling to go over that amount or the option that they are targeting is expensive enough as to push them over a higher hypothetical limit. If the Cubs do acquire an important piece and end up making the playoffs as a result, Cubs fans will owe Ryan Dempster many thanks.

In case you’re not familiar, Pat Venditte is a pitcher in the New York Yankees minor league system who has made some waves for his remakarkable talent: he’s a switch pitcher. Venditte pitches proficiently with both arms. His story made some national waves last year when an at-bat against a switch hitter led to a bit of a debacle (link includes video).

Not only was Venditte’s season a point of interest for those into baseball trivia and oddities, he actually performed quite well. Although his age (23) was advanced for A and A+, it was only his second professional season, and so his 2.07 cumulative FIP and 2.24 FIP at A+ Tampa certainly piqued the interest of some, although others aren’t exactly convinced yet.

Venditte has remained at Tampa for the beginning of the 2010 season, and he’s picked up right where he left off. Venditte is currently running an FIP of 2.52 in 26.1 innings, thanks to a 30:7 K:BB ratio and a spectacular HR/9 rate of only 0.34. His walk rate is actually slightly up from last season, when he only walked only 12 batters in 76.3 innings. To compensate, Venditte has seen a massive increase in his ground ball rate against both hands of hitters – his GB rate against both hitters has increased to 54.5%, up from only 34.2% against lefties and 49.2% against righties.

At the age of 24 – 25 in June – Venditte is about a year and a half older than the average Florida State League player. Between this season and the end of 2009, Venditte has put up about 70 innings of sub-3.00 FIP pitching in the FSL. In the Eastern League, where the AA Trenton Thunder play, the average age is 25. It seems that now (or at least soon) would be a good opportunity to see Venditte perform against players closer to his age level.

Especially given Venditte’s high K-rates and his increased ability to induce the ground ball, I think Venditte warrants more than just a passing look as a prospect. Having a reliever that has the platoon advantage in every situation is very intriguing, as it could potentially reduce the amount of relievers that a manager would need to carry. More importantly, Venditte has quite simply produced at every opportunity. The jump to AA is a big one, and it’s not obvious that Venditte has what it takes to handle the increased talent level, but after over 135 very successful innings in the lower minors, it may be time to get that opportunity sooner rather than later.

The oddity of Venditte also inspired me to think about what other interesting combinations of skills would be useful in a player. Personally, I would be interested in seeing a high platoon split reliever who also had the ability to play a strong (or even roughly average) defensive outfield. That way, that reliever could pitch to a same handed batter, move into the outfield for an opposite handed batter, and then return to the mound for any other same handed batters. Given the way benches are constructed, especially in the National League, the idea may be completely implausible, but given how important platoon splits can be late in games, I still think the idea could work. Feel free to post your concoctions in the comments section.

The Kansas City Royals have a very interesting player currently learning how to play left field for their AAA affiliate in Omaha. At 26, he might be a little old for the league, but there’s no denying his production. Alex Gordon, the Royals former third baseman, has put together a .377/.515/.688 line in about 100 plate appearances with the O-Royals.

We’ve already chronicled the demotion of Alex Gordon to AAA early this season. It seemed ridiculous at the time – Gordon was clearly deserving of a spot on the roster, as he is just simply better than both Chris Getz, and Alberto Callaspo’s defense is extremely suspect. Apparently the Royals felt that they weren’t going to contend this season and that their best course of action, for the long term, would be to try Alex Gordon in left field and let Callaspo’s bat play at third. It is almost certainly better for Gordon to be receiving the at bats that he has at AAA than to be stagnating on the Royals’ bench at the Major League level, but the Royals almost certainly cost themselves some wins on the season.

As we look at the standings, the Royals are pretty clearly finished. They sit at 19-28, 7.5 games behind the Twins for the Central and 9.5 behind the Yankees for the Wild Card. Given the talent disparity between the Royals and those two teams, we can safely say the Royals will not catch them. Still, there is reason to believe that winning now is valuable, and so the Royals should try and make the most of their current season while building for the long term.

They have the perfect player to bring up to the major leagues right now in Gordon. Learning left field clearly hasn’t impacted his offense in the minor leagues. Scott Podsednik has a .234/.281/.328 line in May. Mitch Maier and Rick Ankiel have wOBAs below .320. Willie Bloomquist has played well so far, but he’s Willie Bloomquist. The only truly talented player in the Royals’ outfield right now is David DeJesus, and he’s a 3-4 WAR player at best.

The Royals should have room in their outfield. Podsednik, Bloomquist, Maier, and Ankiel are all expendable players, and DeJesus could bring in some prospects in a potential trade. Alex Gordon does not have anything left to learn in the minors – if there are still any kinks in his outfield defense, he can work them out in the majors. Gordon was a good enough player to make the roster in April. At the plate, he has nothing left to learn in the minors. There’s no excuse if he’s not back in Kansas City by June.

Here at FanGraphs, we describe a relief outing as a “meltdown” if it results in a -0.06 WPA or worse. By that definition, Ryan Perry’s -.819 WPA performance in the 8th inning of last night’s Tigers-Mariners game was certainly a meltdown. Perry entered with the score 4-1, and when he left the Mariners had a 5-4 lead they would not relinquish.

Perry only recorded one out in the inning, and he allowed five hits, including a home run, and allowed four earned runs. According to Pitch F/X data, nothing looked off with Perry’s stuff. He was simply the victim of poor location and some hard hit baseballs.

The inning started with an incredibly patient at bat from Franklin Gutierrez. The stellar center fielder took five straight pitches on or around the outside corner before singling on a belt high fastball right down the middle.

After striking out Milton Bradley, Perry was set to face a string of right handed batters in Mike Sweeney, Jose Lopez, and if necessary Rob Johnson and Josh Wilson. Given that only Sweeney had an above average ZiPS RoS projection entering the game and the other three hitters had projected wOBAs below .305, the stage appeared to be set for Perry to work his way around a leadoff single.

Of course, that’s not what happened. The first pitch to Mike Sweeney was a slider that didn’t do much and stayed right in the middle of the strike zone. Sweeney crushed it for his 6th home run of the season. The Tigers still held the lead at that point, at 4-3. With one out already recorded and three weak, same-handed hitters coming up, Perry was set up for success.

Instead, the Mariners quickly began another rally. Jose Lopez singled on another miss over the heart of the plate. Still, at this point the Tigers’ win probability was at 28.9%, and still the matchups were very favorable to Perry. Rob Johnson battled against Perry, bringing the count to full, and hitting another belt-high fastball – this time, closer to the inside corner, although pitch 4 missed badly and was fouled off.

Johnson’s double moved Jose Lopez to third base. The Tigers still held the lead, but the Mariners’ win probability was finally bumped over 50% to 53.4%. It was improbably that Perry and the Tigers would get out of the jam, but odds were good that they would limit the damage to only one run and keep the game at least tied. Such dreams were smashed when shortstop Josh Wilson singled on another ball down the middle. This pitch was down below the strike zone, but Wilson still managed to line it to left field for what would turn out to be the game-winning RBIs.

Perry has good stuff – his fastball averages over 95 MPH and he also uses a slider and a changeup (sparingly). Even at 95+, though, location is key against major league hitters. Ryan Perry repeatedly missed down the middle of the strike zone on Wednesday night, and as a result Mariners hitters – including a weak string of right handers – hammered him for line drive hit after line drive hit.

This has to be one of the more painful losses of the Tigers season, as they had a 94.1% chance of winning at one point and an 88.3% chance of winning when Perry’s inning began. At least they’re squarely in contention, only one game back of Minnesota. And at least they have Justin Verlander.

When Mark Buehrle was ejected from Wednesday afternoon’s game against the Cleveland Indians in the third inning, the outlook was poor for the Chicago White Sox. The Sox were forced to go to their bullpen early, and with a runner on 2nd base and only 1 out, the win expectancy was 62.5% for the Indians. However, Buehrle’s replacement, Randy Williams, worked around an infield single to get out of the inning via a double play ball off the bat of Shin-Soo Choo.

The White Sox would go on to win the game, despite Buehrle’s quick hook. The reason for Buehrle’s ejection wasn’t immediately clear. It occurred after a questionable balk call – the second of the game called against Buehrle. We can’t hear if anything was said, but the offense that seems to have agitated Joe West is Buehrle lightly tossing his glove in frustration. Here’s a video of the ejection, from The Sporting Blog.

West Ejects Buehrle

The ejection of a starting pitcher early in the game is nothing to take lightly. The starting pitcher drastically impacts the run environment of the game, as we account for in our pitcher win values. The relief picher that comes in is typically the long reliever, one of the worst pitchers on the staff.

More importantly, however, is how the additional workload forced upon the bullpen can impact a team’s relievers. Today was the 9th game day in a row for the White Sox. They will not have a day off until May 31st. The White Sox bullpen had already thrown 23.2 innings in the 8 day stretch preceding this game. The early ejection of Buehrle forced another 6.1 innings onto that bullpen. That includes four innings thrown by Tony Pena, the longest outing of his major league career. Pena has recorded two 3.0 IP outings so far this year, and has required four days and two days of rest after those appearances. There’s a good chance the Pena will not be able to be used in the four game series that Chicago will open up against Tampa Bay tomorrow.

Rule 9.01 (d) spells out the rules for ejections in MLB:

Each umpire has authority to disqualify any player, coach, manager or substitute for objecting to decisions or for unsportsmanlike conduct or language, and to eject such disqualified person from the playing field. If an umpire disqualifies a player while a play is in progress, the disqualification shall not take effect until no further action is possible in that play.

Purely going by the book, Joe West wasn’t out of line with his ejection. That glove toss can certainly be called unsportsmanlike. Still, the ejection of a starting pitcher has a serious impact on a MLB game, and West’s actions seem overly sensitive given how umpires are generally treated. Umpires need to have thick skins, and it is irresponsible to potentially decide a game because one feels slighted. Luckily for Chicago, West’s ejection of Buehrle and manager Ozzie Guillen (who called Joe West a very nasty name after the game) didn’t cost them the game today. Unfortunately, it is almost certain that they will feel its effects throughout the entirety of their next series.

Andy LaRoche is currently the only player the Pirates received in the Jason Bay trade on the active roster. Craig Hansen hasn’t pitched in 2010, Bryan Morris is in hi-A, and Brandon Moss has a .676 OPS in AAA. Right now, Andy LaRoche is the best hope for the Pirates to get a productive player out of that deal. This year, however, results have been disappointing. LaRoche only has a .311 wOBA this year, down from .324 in 2009.

Much of this decrease in performance can be attributed to a .278 BABIP. Throughout his career, LaRoche has had BABIP issues, most notably in 2008, when he carried a .190 BABIP through a relatively large sample of 186 balls in play. The key to these issues appears to be a penchant for hitting infield fly balls. In 1100 career plate appearances, LaRoche has an IFFB% of 14.5%. That would rank in the top 10 marks among qualified players in 2009.

It should be obvious that infield flies are a bad result. The BABIP on infield flies is right around .010. Even though LaRoche’s 35.0% career fly ball rate is below average, his high IFFB rate still means that 5% of his batted balls are almost guaranteed to be outs.

That problem has only been exacerbated in 2010. LaRoche’s infield fly fate has expanded to 25%. With a quarter of his fly balls going for outs, and his fly ball rate up to 36%, that means that 9% of his batted balls are guaranteed outs. That’s put a major damper on his slugging percentage this season – his SLG has fallen from .401 to .364, and his ISO has seen an equivalent drop. His ground ball BABIP has increased to .233 from .218 (and a bewildering .111 in 2008), which has offset the damage to his batting average and on-base percentage.

Really, the only major difference between LaRoche’s 2010 and 2009 is this increase in infield flies. His walk rate is within 0.1%, his HR/FB rate is within 0.5%, and his strikeout rate is actually down 2%. It’s nearly impossible for an infield fly rate this high to be sustainable – no qualified player in 2010 hit more than 17.6% of his fly balls in the infield. Expect LaRoche to start hitting more of his fly balls out of the infield. Both his power and batting average will increase as a result, and his line should approach, if not eclipse, last year’s 97 wRC+, 2.6 WAR season.