Comparing Perfection
Unless you’ve been living under a rock this weekend, chances are that you’ve heard that Phillies ace Roy Halladay threw a perfect game against the Marlins on Saturday. It was the 20th such performance in Major League Baseball history. Remarkably, it was the second this season, the first year in which two perfect games have occurred since 1880. The first of 2010, of course, was Dallas Braden’s perfect game against the Rays on May 9th.
Let’s compare how the two pitchers recorded their 27 consecutive outs:
Braden: 109 pitches, 77 strikes, 6 K, 7 GB, 10 FB (3 IFFB), 4 LD, +.355 WPA
Halladay: 115 pitches, 72 strikes, 11 K, 8 GB, 8 FB (2 IFFB), 0 LD, +.888 WPA
It seems to me that Halladay was unquestionably the more dominant pitcher in his perfect game, which makes sense, given the difference in skill between the two pitchers. Halladay didn’t allow a single line drive and struck out five more batters.
Most remarkably, Halladay performed his perfect game in a situation that nearly required perfection, as the Phillies only managed to plate one run against Marlins ace Josh Johnson. Because of the tight score, Halladay accrued a fantastic +.888 WPA. That mark is the highest for any pitcher since June 26th, 2005, when A.J Burnett and the Florida Marlins defeated the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1-0.
The point of this post certainly isn’t to belittle Dallas Braden’s perfect game in any way. It was a spectacular achievement and will go down in baseball history as such. Roy Halladay simply increased his own position in the history books with one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
Even more remarkable – three perfect games in 12 months. It’s getting to be downright commonplace.
Braden was very good, but there were a lot of balls hit hard in that game – he very easily could’ve given up 4-6 hits and a couple of runs. He got incredibly lucky. Halladay was totally dominant – but the umpire was giving a REALLY wide strike zone that seemed to widen as Halladay’s PG prospects developed.
It seemed like Hanley Ramirez got nailed twice on balls really inside. I was following on GameDay instead of watching, and it seems that the strikezone for Gameday can sometimes be miscalibrated, but I’ve heard plenty of people discussing the same two pitches. Two full counts, both taken, and both seemingly well inside. One was in the first inning and one was in the 7th. Both should have been called balls, but twice they were called strike 3.
I’m not trying to dump on Halladay, honestly. Actually it’s pretty amazing since I’d just spent how much time trying to explain how arbitrary the idea of “winning and losing pitchers” are, and then Josh Johnson “loses” a game while allowing a single unearned run. A perfect game on one end and a dominant pitching performance on the other side is very rare to see.
I disagree that the zone widened as the game went along. Two of the borderline edge strike calls came in the first inning, and the umpire consistently called those as strikes as the game progressed. Halladay, as any excellent pitcher would do, wisely continued to take advantage of the strike zone given to him.
I agree with the above. The ump played a crucial role. There were a ton of very questionable strikeouts with full counts that Could very easily have been walks. A few came very early in the game, I admit, but there was one on ramirez later that was especially egregious.
I think @downgoesbrown said it best:
Roy Halladay pitches a perfect game; or, as Jays fans call it, the fourth or fifth best game we’ve ever seen him pitch.
I’d like to see a breakdown of the two starts using Pitch F/X. I’ve heard, anecdotally, that Halladay was given a ton of strikezone leeway during that game.
I wouldn’t complain much about the strikezone. PitchFx shows that the ump was giving Halladay a little room on the inside, but it was quite consistant and Halladay kept nailing the same spot. It certainly helped, but it was fair, and only a few cm. What’s he going to do? Start calling the inside corner balls after the first ten or so pitches there?
I agree with impossibles, though.
Halladay was given more than just a little leeway. At least 2 of those 3-1 pitches were walks as was one of the 3-2 pitches. In a 1-run game that could have changed the game dramatically.
Still in every perfect game there is a call or play that ‘saves it’. Heck it’s the only reason a lot of people know who Dwayne Wise is.
Congrats to RHP’s, perfect games have been a little “lefty heavy” as of late.
Counting his production on offense, Mat Latos put up a .909 WPA on May 12th against San Francisco. I’m shocked there wasn’t a fangraphs post about that..
I don’t really understand the point of this. We all know Halladay is a better pitcher. This just sounds like a whiny kid arguing that his pitcher is better. They’re perfect games for Christ sake. Do you really need to add, “yeah, but this one was better.”
Why do you even read this website? The point of this place is to dissect and evaluate things that are interesting because we all love baseball, and as such baseball is the most statistically interesting sport of them all. I, for one, enjoy comparisons such as these.
No mention of the quality of the lineups.
I think that Tampa was one of the top, if not the highest scoring team when braden shut them down.
Marlins have pop, but are also hackers – strike out a lot.
And the pitcher bats, of course.
Halladay got several balls called strikes, on counts with 3 balls already for the hitter. The umpire should get as much credit for that perfect game as Halladay. He still was tough to hit, but pitching out of the stretch might have taxed him.
Agreed with bSpittle: the quality of the lineups does shift level of achievement to favor Braden’s outing somewhat. Has anyone calculated the (im)probability of these outcomes based on the lineup’s batting average or OBP? Meaning, taking (1-OBP) for that player and multiplying that together from each of the 27 plate appearances?
How about the DH?
Focusing on a few questionable ball/strike calls is idiotic. I am sure one could question the same for every PG pitched – and for every non perfect game pitched. Unless there are data showing that Halladay’s ball pitches were being called strikes at a statistically significant value, I don’t see how nitpicking a few pitches supports any point.
I agree that given the lines, especially the LDs, Braden’s PG was all the more improbable. Good article!
This was made in the post Braden PG posts- at what point does the umpire realize the situation and then alter his own game (do you ever see PGs broken up by a walk? What point in the game- EVER after the fourth inning?)
Ramirez, for all his off the field shenanigans, is a good hitter- shouldn’t his star power cancel out Halladay’s on close calls like that? Even with the angled viewpoint, they looked way inside. The problem I have in this sport is that the home plate umpire plays such a big role at all.
Again, Braden rung up several K’s looking on batters- Halladay the same. When does the pitcher know that the umpire is locked and won’t break his possible history-making event on a borderline call?
Instead of blaming the ump, I might blame the Marlins for continuing to look at strike 3 when he’d been calling that spot since the first inning. What were they trying to prove?