Max Scherzer’s Unprecedented Strikeout Rate
In his first eight starts of the year, Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer faced many problems. In 2009 with the Diamondbacks he struck out 9.19 batters per nine innings, which ranked eighth among NL starters. This year, in a move to the AL, he struck out just 5.57 per nine. That, along with an inflated home run rate and very low strand rate, boosted his ERA to 7.29, well above his 6.01 FIP and 5.04 xFIP. Still, those numbers aren’t good, hence Scherzer’s demotion to AAA. After a pair of absolutely dominant starts there he returned to the Tigers on Sunday. It was quite the outing.
Scherzer faced 24 batters in 5.2 innings, only five of whom made contact. Kevin Kouzmanoff fouled out in the first, Ryan Sweeney grounded out in the third, Kouzmanoff lined out, Jack Cust doubled in the same inning, and Landon Powell singled in the fifth. Other than that, everyone else either walked, got hit by a pitch, or struck out. Scherzer’s day ended after he plunked Mark Ellis in the sixth, before which he struck out 14 Athletics. Even more impressively, 11 of those strikeouts came on swings and misses, including all three batters in the second. His four walks and one HBP topped off a mostly contactless day.
With the performance Scherzer becomes the 209th pitcher in the past 30 years who has recorded at least 14 strikeouts in a game. Yet he separates himself a bit from the pack. Of the 98 pitchers with 14 strikeouts, only five have done it in six innings. None have done it in fewer, meaning Scherzer has the quickest 14 strikeouts in the past 30 years. In fact, no pitcher in baseball history has struck out as many as 14 in 5.2 innings. In 1994 Kevin Appier struck out 13 in 5.2 innings. Only A.J. Burnett did it with Scherzer’s wildness. He walked four and struck out 14 in six innings for the Marlins in 2005.
Final fun fact: Since 1920 there have been 87 pitchers who have struck out at least 14 and walked at least four in a start. Twenty-five of them did it in greater than nine innings. The real fun fact is that only 30 have done it without allowing a run. The shortest such appearance was 8 IP, by Jason Bere of the White Sox in 1994. Scherzer held the A’s scoreless, and Phil Coke cleaned up his bequeathed runners.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
Quite the amazing start indeed, I held onto him through it all. Safe to say he had his Velocity back.
I don’t mean to quibble, but is it actually true that nobody other than those 5 players cited made even foul contact? Also, did you check to see if any of the pitchers who have struck out more than 14 in a start managed to get 14 of the first 17? I’ll do it.
Clemens got exactly 14 of the first 17 outs by the K on April 29, 1986 and September 18, 1996, his two 20 strikeout games. Not sure if anyone managed to get more than that out of 17 outs, but I’m not going to crawl through all the play by plays to find out. Regardless, Scherzer is in fine company.
He still had 113 pitches in 5.2 innings. He’s the same pitcher he was last year.
I’m pretty sure a lot of people would take him if he was the pitcher he was last year. People were more worried about the beginning of this season than last years results.
He still can barely make it to the 6th inning in most starts.
He has a world of talent, but I just don’t think he’ll make it as a starter.
Scherzer going 5.2 innings with his stuff is way better than 7 innings of a lesser pitcher.
He pitched 170 innings last year with an FIP of 3.87. Even if he doesn’t improve at all over the rest of his career, why would a team take him out of the starting rotation with those numbers? So that they can get *fewer* innings out of him?
With his mechanics, he’ll probably get injured, then they’ll move him to the pen.
And a pitcher going 7 innings means he’s doing well, so actually, yes, I’d rather have the guy going 7 innings than the guy pitching 5 innings.
Not just that but part of being a key starting pitcher is not being a drain on the bullpen.
Last year AZ had a struggling bullpen, and having to pitch 3-4 innings every Scherzer start didn’t help.
As far as I know, there isn’t a metric that measures decreased relief pitcher performance due to a starter not going enough innings. That’d be an interesting (but likely impossible) stat to me.
It is important to look at Scherzer’s contributions WITHIN the team concept. A lesser pitcher that goes 7 but only requires the use of the setup man and closer might be more valuable (overall) then a Max Scherzer + 3-4 other relievers. It still is about how each guys operates WITHIN the team concept.
While innings eaters are not as fun to watch and have lesser attractive stats, they also allow the relievers to be fresher in games that might be more important or have a higher leverage.
It’s not as if Max allows 0-1 runs through those 5 innings either. Truth is he throws hard and strikes out a lot of guys, so he tends to get more attention than his overall contributions to wins and losses likely warrants.
Struck out 18. New league record.
Walked 18. Another new league record.
Besides that he hit the public address announcer , the Null mascot TWICE … Also new league records. But, this guy has some seriuos shit,
yeah, *chuckles*, serious shit.
Stupid touch screen. U know what I’m getting at.
Minor league K’s have not been a problem for DBack pitchers. See Sclereth and Zavada for example.
FWIW, I know Scherz is with DET, I’m just referring to past performance.
When the Terminator is on, he’s on … until he isn’t.
It was a good performance, and both sides acknowledge that, but the umpiring was horrible. The umpire was calling pitches strikes that were a foot outside (check gameday and you can see for yourself). The A’s hitters, at least, were pissed at the UMP the entire game.
Wrong.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=5&day=30&year=2010&game=gid_2010_05_30_oakmlb_detmlb_1/&pitchSel=453286&prevGame=gid_2010_05_30_oakmlb_detmlb_1/&prevDate=530
Gotta love pitch f/x data, looks like he nibbled on the inside corner but he had more swinging strikeouts than looking. Were the A’s hitters pissed about that as well?
Right
Watch the game. Scouting > f/x data. Swinging strikeouts because the first two were called off the plate.
I was at the game, 7 rows up about half way down the first base line so I didn’t have the best view to see if they were off the plate(atleast to a left handed batter) but I will say that from my vantage point you could really see the movement that his fastball had on it, so if you’re watching it on TV it may have looked a bit outside because of where the catcher caught it because of the late life but it just may have been a strike when it actually crossed the plate. Personally I didn’t see any that appeared to be THAT bad but then again I didn’t catch every pitch either between trips to the bathroom and fill ups of my beer.
Anyway as a Tiger fan I’ll take more starts like this. Ideally I’d prefer for him to work deeper into games but 5 2/3IP of shut out ball is alot better than what they would’ve gotten from Willis. It was nice to see his velocity back too, he hit 99 on the stadium gun on his second to last pitch of the night. Earlier in the year he was struggling to hit 93 or 94. His personal schedule looks to be very appealing coming up so maybe he can get in a little bit of a roll.
Really? I ask because when I am a pitching coach, I sit right next to the dugout entrance, some 40 feet from the catcher and I wouldn’t be able to observe lateral motion on a fastball (while charting pitches). Even noting where the catcher’s glove was to start and where it ended wouldn’t necessarily tell you have much the ball was tailing. Drop? Sure that’s a great angle to read that, but lateral movement? You’d need to be as close to behind the pitcher as allowable.
But, you noticed this from 7 rows up hallway down the 1st base line?
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I am questioning a person’s ability to read lateral movement on a mid-90’s fastball from that angle.
It must have just been because I wasn’t used to sitting that close(I’m normally out in the bleachers) so maybe it just seemed like it was exploding at the plate, or it was just the fact that there were alot of swings and misses on it that tricked me to think that it was moving alot. Either way his ball just looked different to me than any other pitcher that pitched that day including Zumaya and his 100mph fastball.
Tony has it right, pitch f/x data is great. If Gameday was showing the pitches “a foot outside” being called strikes, the developers of Gameday have a serious problem 😉
Zonis thats hilarious. You can’t argue with the pitch F/X data, who trusts those gameday things haha, my god.
A three true outcomes pitcher.
With the Willis experiment finally over. It is good to see Scherzer’s time with the Mud Hens may have done him some good. Keep it up Max
I don’t recall Max ever struggling in the minor leagues. I don’t see what the celebration is all about. It’s like he just proved something we already knew … Max Scherzer strikes out a lot of minor league batters.
The author seems overly impressed that so many of the K’s were sings and misses. Isn’t that why many of those hitters are in the minor leagues? Chasing pitches or not being able to catch up to major league speed or breaking stuff?
Um, | think there is some confusion here. The piece is about the fact that he struck out so many hitters in his first start back in the majors. I feel like there is a desire to flame in this thread that might be making otherwise persuasive arguments lose their power.
Wow, so much vitriol for Scherzer. Who knew?
Max will never be as effective as he was last year. Substituting the DH for the pitcher reduces his K rate and cutsat least another third inning off his average start. He’s a bullpen killer who will soon be a bullpen member. Assuming that motion doesn’t make him a Tommy John recipient instaed.