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MLB Draft: First-Round Trends

Take the best available player.

That refrain continues to be the draft philosophy espoused by all thirty major league organizations throughout each summer. It does not matter if the player is 18-years-old and in high school or if the player is 21-years-old and in college. Simply evaluate the talent on the field and draft accordingly. As Mariners’ scouting director Tom McNamara stated last June in preparation for the 2011 Draft:

“If we think the high school player is the best player at No. 2, we’ll take the high school guy. If we think it’s a college guy, we’ll take the college guy.” (source)

Seattle eventually selected collegiate left-hander Danny Hultzen with the second pick in the draft. In 2010, Seattle selected prep right-hander Taijuan Walker in the supplemental first round, which happened to be their first and only first-round pick of the draft. The year before, they had three first-round picks and selected one collegiate player and two high school players.

Echoing the best player available approach, the Mariners have not shown preference toward high school or college. In fact, the organization has drafted seven prep players and six collegiate players since the 2000 Draft. Essentially an even split.

All organizations are not like this, though. I gathered all of the first-round draft picks (including the first supplemental round) since the turn of the century, and noticed a few trends that have developed.

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Trade Retrospective: Sabathia to Brewers

In 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers were one of the feel-good stories of the baseball season. They ended a 26-year postseason drought and brought October baseball back to the land of beer and cheese.

Milwaukee also made headlines when they orchestrated the blockbuster trade of the summer. To augment a starting rotation that lost young right-hander Yovani Gallardo earlier in the year to a torn ACL which he sustained in a freak injury against the Chicago Cubs, the Brewers sent first baseman Matt LaPorta, center fielder Michael Brantley, left-hander Zach Jackson, and right-handed reliever Rob Bryson to Cleveland in order to acquire their ace, CC Sabathia.

At the time, the four-prospect package was largely considered a steep price to pay for a half-year rental. Over three years later, though, how does that trade look?

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Building Through the Draft: Worst of the Worst

On Monday morning, I wrote an article that revealed the top five teams in Major League Baseball at drafting and developing talent for their big league club over the past decade, starting with the 2002 Draft.

Several people commented that they wished to see the entire list of teams, ranked by total accumulated WAR and also including average WAR per homegrown player. Here is the entire league:

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Building Through the Draft: Best of the Best

Prospects have never been trendier amongst baseball fans than they are right now. The MLB Draft is now televised, most baseball blogs and online publications now publish at least a Top 10 Prospects list for each organization, and struggling fan bases such as that of the Kansas City Royals have begun to see their attendance rise as their prized minor leaguers begin to reach the majors.

The same can be said for their popularity within major league organizations, too.

Teams have begun pouring so much money into the draft that the new CBA contains specific limitations to curb the spending spree. Teams now often value control years more than overall talent and have become extremely cautious in parting with top prospects to acquire proven talent. This generalization goes for both big-market and small-market franchises, too, which is something that was not often said in previous years.

Which teams have benefited most from homegrown talent in recent years? Which teams have drafted amateur players and developed them into major league talent the best?

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High School Draftees and Elite Seasons

Over the weekend, I stumbled upon this article that quoted some thought-provoking numbers from agent Scott Boras. In the article, he voices his support for increased collegiate baseball scholarships and lays out a few statistics that his agency has unearthed:

  • >>  79% of collegiate first-round draft picks reach the major leagues for at least one day.
  • >>  62% of high school first-round draft picks reach the major leagues for at least one day.

That is a significant 17% difference, though not necessarily surprising. High school draftees come with increased risk. Generally, their skill sets remain more unrefined than their collegiate counterparts. Thus, predicting the future talent for those players becomes much more difficult. This uncertainty causes teams to miss on a greater portion of high school players.

So, what continues to draw teams into drafting a high school player over a collegiate player every year?

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Overspending on the Cuban Market

The Chicago Cubs have long been connected to Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes this winter, but last week, they came to terms with another Cuban free agent, 19-year-old left-hander Gerardo Concepcion.

Concepcion flew under the radar for the majority of the offseason. The focus has been on the higher ceiling Cubans, which left much of the baseball community slackjawed at the $7M price tag the Cubs had to pony up to land the southpaw. Teams simply do not spend that much money on a prospect that is largely considered to be nothing more than a back-end starter … tops.

That is, unless one factors in the fact that international spending will now be capped, starting this upcoming July. Rick Hahn, Assistant General Manager of the Chicago White Sox, predicted a week ago that teams would be “extraordinarily aggressive on Cespedes, Soler and Concepcion” due to the upcoming limitations. He turned out to be right on the money.

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South Korea, Japan and The MLB

Earlier this week, the Baltimore Orioles announced the signing of 17-year-old South Korean pitcher, Kim Seong-min, amidst little fanfare.

At least, little fanfare in the United States.

The Korean Baseball Organization, on the other hand, strongly rebuked the Orioles and Major League Baseball for “indiscriminately signing [Korean] players.” Kim was the nation’s top left-handed pitching prospect and was expected to join the KBO upon his completion of high school. Instead, he becomes just another face amongst the hundreds of young men from across the globe in Major League organizations who are all trying to realize a life-long dream of playing in the big leagues.

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Stress and Anxiety in Baseball

Baseball is a team sport. Between the foul lines, however, the outcome of the game is inextricably composed of multiple individual performances, and in today’s hyper-analytical and overly-critical society that places each individual performance under a microscope, stress amongst baseball players has — by all accounts — risen to never-before-seen levels.

For some players, that stress lacks a healthy outlet. It builds and builds until mental disorders begin to bubble to the surface, and in some cases, they can become debilitating for players.

Taylor Buchholz became the latest major league baseball player to come forward and announce that he will take time away from baseball due to anxiety and depression issues.

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Francisco Cordero, The Blue Jay

Right-hander Francisco Cordero sat on the sideline as every other available closer on the free agent market found employment this winter. On Tuesday afternoon, however, it was reported that the 36-year-old native of the Dominican Republic agreed to a one-year, $4.5M deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

He is expected to serve as the set-up man for the newly-acquired Sergio Santos, which will be the first year in a non-closer role for Cordero since he set-up for Ugueth Urbina for half of the 2003 season. Dave Cameron adroitly illustrated why Cordero was left on the outside of the closer’s market looking in — mostly due to a troubling decline in the ability to miss bats over the past few years — in this article.

It’s beneficial for the Blue Jays that Cordero will not be relied upon to be the team’s closer, because that declining strikeout rate was not the only red flag raised in 2011. The vast chasm between his 2.45 ERA and 4.02 FIP last season has been well-documented, but the other major concern stems from what appears to be a huge improvement from last year: his walk rate.

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Younger Is Not Always Better in the Dominican

Age falsification continues to be a thorn in Major League Baseball’s collective side. Cleveland Indians’ right-hander Fausto Carmona was taken into custody in the Dominican Republic last week for using a false identity. Reports state that he is 31 years old (three years older than advertised) and that his real name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia.

This latest arrest not only dredges up questions regarding the effectiveness of the current system of international free agency, but also whether or not organizations are prudently investing money in young, high-risk Dominican teenagers. Melissa Segura of Sports Illustrated explains that, since 2003, 16-year-olds out of the D.R. have been given 50% more in bonuses than 17-year-old players.

Segura goes on to argue that organizations are mistakenly placing a premium on youth in the Dominican because only six players that were signed at age 16 made big league debuts between 2008-2011, while 17-year-old signees had 23 debuts and 18-year-old signees had 24 debuts.

Organizations do not sign Dominican teenagers to six-figure deals merely to have them scratch the big leagues, though. They wish to exploit the perceived inefficiencies of the Latin American market and buy premium talent at a fraction of the market value.

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