MLB Draft: First-Round Trends
Take the best available player.
That refrain continues to be the draft philosophy espoused by all thirty major league organizations throughout each summer. It does not matter if the player is 18-years-old and in high school or if the player is 21-years-old and in college. Simply evaluate the talent on the field and draft accordingly. As Mariners’ scouting director Tom McNamara stated last June in preparation for the 2011 Draft:
“If we think the high school player is the best player at No. 2, we’ll take the high school guy. If we think it’s a college guy, we’ll take the college guy.” (source)
Seattle eventually selected collegiate left-hander Danny Hultzen with the second pick in the draft. In 2010, Seattle selected prep right-hander Taijuan Walker in the supplemental first round, which happened to be their first and only first-round pick of the draft. The year before, they had three first-round picks and selected one collegiate player and two high school players.
Echoing the best player available approach, the Mariners have not shown preference toward high school or college. In fact, the organization has drafted seven prep players and six collegiate players since the 2000 Draft. Essentially an even split.
All organizations are not like this, though. I gathered all of the first-round draft picks (including the first supplemental round) since the turn of the century, and noticed a few trends that have developed.
Teams That Favor High School Players
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES — 83.3%
The Phillies have only drafted two collegiate players — Chase Utley and Joe Savery — in the past twelve seasons. Contrast that with the ten prep players drafted in that same time frame, including their past four first-round picks, and the overarching philosophy of the organization becomes clear. Youth and projectability matter. The most high-profile prep draftees out of the Phillies’ system have been left-hander Cole Hamels, right-hander Gavin Floyd, and right-hander Kyle Drabek. The Phillies are also the organization that drafted and signed the legendary, tool-laden Greg Golson.
ATLANTA BRAVES — 77.3%
With 22 first-round draft picks since the 2000 Draft, the Braves have only selected five collegiate players. They’re most known for their ability to acquire and develop amateur pitching, but their biggest successes out of the draft have been high school position players (unless one considers Adam Wainwright, who Atlanta traded to St. Louis for J.D. Drew, a product of the Braves’ system), namely Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, and Jason Heyward.
Honorable Mention: Florida Marlins (75%); Los Angeles Angels (71.4%)
Teams That Favor Collegiate Players
OAKLAND ATHLETICS — 96.2%
Billy Beane and scouting director Erik Kubota have been credited with being instrumental to mainstreaming sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis in baseball. Perhaps the need for data explains why the organization has overwhelmingly shied away from high school players in the first round. After all, more reliable statistics exist for collegiate players. Since the 2000 Draft, the Athletics have only selected one high school player, right-hander Jeremy Bonderman. Even in Round 2-10 in that same time frame, the Athletics have drafted 88 collegiate players and only 21 high schoolers. If you want to make easy money next summer, bet a friend that Oakland will draft a collegiate player in the first round of the 2012 Draft. Your odds of winning will be quite high.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX — 81.3%
It’s not surprising to find Chicago on the collegiate side of the continuum, as the organization has always been extremely budget-conscious in the draft. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf was supposedly one of the key supporters of the MLB Draft spending limitations in the new CBA. Out of the 16 first-round picks over the past twelve drafts, the White Sox have only selected two high school players, right-hander Kris Honel and left-hander Gio Gonzalez. Somewhat ironically, Gonzalez has been the best first-round player that Chicago has drafted since 2000. Too bad that has all happened in an Athletics (and now Nationals) uniform.
Honorable Mention: Arizona Diamondbacks (69.6%); Pittsburgh Pirates (69.2%)
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
McNamara born in 1895?
so two of the teams most successful at developing homegrown talent vs two that are awful at it, gee I wonder which one is the way to go.
Oakland is awful at it? C’mon buddy.
Oakland is awful at the draft. On their entire roster I count only 4 regular contributers that they drafted: Braden (’04), Suzuki (’04), Pennington (’05), and Weeks (’08).
So in the last 6 years they have drafted exactly 1 player on their current roster that is a regular contributer?
Even if we look at some of their recent trades only Cahill was an A’s draftee (’06).
So yes… the A’s are terrible.
@Jason, I guess you missed this article:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/building-through-the-draft-worst-of-the-worst/
@ random guy – I didnt miss that article. I think the key is the cut off in the start date. The article begins its analysis with 2002. The A’s had a lot of success in the early part of the decade. I don’t see that as being particularly relevant for where the industry is today.
Perhaps a future article showing the total WAR of the players drafted (and signed) by each team since 2000?
This comment is to Jason’s post above…
I’m not trying to defend the A’s as the best drafters, by any means, but you’re missing out on Mulder, Zito, Bonderman, Swisher, & Blanton, as successful 1st round picks in the “Beane Era”. It’s irrelevant if they’re on the A’s roster currently. Then there’s Weeks, who looks pretty good so far.
I certainly wouldn’t call them terrible.
Reply to Degolas – I’m not missing those guys… I realize Beane had some success in the early part of the decade. But the guys you are referencing are all long gone from the A’s… and years beyond their controlable years.
My comment wasnt meant to diminish that past success… but rather to point out that CURRENTLY the A’s are not very good at drafting baseball players.
The Pirates data is skewed by the extreme split since Huntington replaced Littlefield. Littlefield prefered college guys close to the majors with low risk, low reward. Huntington has leaned heavy on prep players, particularly pitchers who are projectible over slot types. The Bucs normal draft of late has been about 15+ prep RHP that are tall and have a chance to add velocity.
I don’t think you know what friendship means.
According to Moneyball, Beane threw a chair through a wall when Bonderman was selected, and subsequently fired the guy who selected him. Beane’s contract was extended to 2019 — I don’t think we’ll see Oakland pick a high-schooler #1 for a while.
That book misrepresents what happens in that exchange. It makes it seem as if the guy drafted Bondo without Beane’s approval. Beane was mad that various players he coveted more were selected immediately before Bondo.
I thought the Phillies originally drafted Gio.
Now I know he wasn’t!
One of the rare times I can remember where a top prospect got traded away by a team and then getting traded back.
Thank you so much for this analysis. It confirms (though I admit, very weakly) my belief that drafting HS players is generally a better idea than drafting college players. 3 out of 4 HS drafters are very successful teams, but only 1 of 4 college drafters.
I had recently noted that the Giants (the team I follow most closely) had a lot of 23-year-olds on their top prospect list who had not risen above A+ ball, whereas the Braves (picked at random) had a similar number of 19-year-olds at the same level.
Which would you rather have, players who may make the bigs at 26, already at their peak or players who make it at 22 with a few years of upside?
Give me the youngsters, please.
I like this data, but would like to see some updated analysis. For example, while Atlanta was a hotbed of prep players early on in the decade, their last two first round picks under a new SD have been polished college pitchers, reflecting a change in their approach. Meanwhile the Dodgers haven’t drafted a college player in the first round (excluding supplemental) since Ben Diggins in 2000 reflecting Logan White’s strong prep pitcher preference. But definitely an enjoyable read and an interesting look at overarching trends.
Chris Reed ring a bell?
Ha. I’m an idiot. Fair enough. But the point stands that there’s a 10 year gap there. But yeah…embarrassing.
And Morris, though he wasn’t a 4 year college guy. Plus Miller, Adkins, Hochevar, and Orenduff in the sandwich round.
The Dodgers have been noted as a team that drafts a lot of high schoolers, but that really isn’t the big trend. The trend is pitching, high school or college.
Since James Loney in 2002, the Dodgers have only spent 2 picks in the first/supplemental first on hitters, and neither of those picks were the first pick the team had in that draft.
Morris was a compensation pick and picked after a High School player. It’s not supplemental I know, but they clearly change their strategy with multiple first rounders begetting multiple first round bonuses. Their draft strategy overall is high school players. And I specifically said excluding supplemental which is why I didn’t reference Miller, Adkins, Orenduff and Hochevar.
love the point on the a’s, this year there are so many mock drafts having them pick someone like mccullers
i can GUARANTEE that if beck or roache are still on the board, they’ll pick one of them, if not, either wacha, piscotty (if he stays hot through the season) or johnson
“Take the best player available” may be espoused, but is simply not fact.
Best players get passed over multiple times because of price tag or signability.
IIRC, Anthopoulos says the Jays, who’ve moved from collegiate to prep heavy drafting, draft for value. They will draft a player who should go a bit later if they will sign underslot, freeing up money to go overslot on a higher talent that dropped. (eg Musgrove/Norris this past year).